Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.

Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Unconscious relational inference recruits the hippocampus

Relational inference denotes the capacity to encode, flexibly retrieve, and integrate multiple memories to combine past experiences to update knowledge and improve decision-making in new situations. Although relational inference is thought to depend on the hippocampus and consciousness, we now show in young, healthy men that it may occur outside consciousness but still recruits the hippocampus. In temporally distinct and unique subliminal episodes, we presented word pairs that either overlapped (“winter–red”, “red–computer”) or not. Effects of unconscious relational inference emerged in reaction times recorded during unconscious encoding and in the outcome of decisions made 1 min later at test, when participants judged the semantic relatedness of two supraliminal words. These words were either episodically related through a common word (“winter–computer” related through “red”) or unrelated. Hippocampal activity increased during the unconscious encoding of overlapping versus nonoverlapping word pairs and during the unconscious retrieval of episodically related versus unrelated words. Furthermore, hippocampal activity during unconscious encoding predicted the outcome of decisions made at test. Hence, unconscious inference may influence decision-making in new situations.

After Bali: WTO Rules Applying to Public Food Reserves

Once more, agriculture threatened to prevent all progress in multilateral trade rule-making at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference in December 2013. But this time, the “magic of Bali” worked. After the clock had been stopped mainly because of the food security file, the ministers adopted a comprehensive package of decisions and declarations mainly in respect of development issues. Five are about agriculture. Decision 38 on Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes contains a “peace clause” which will now be shielding certain stockpile programmes from subsidy complaints in formal litigation. This article provides contextual background and analyses this decision from a legal perspective. It finds that, at best, Decision 38 provides a starting point for a WTO Work Programme for food security, for review at the Eleventh Ministerial Conference which will probably take place in 2017. At worst, it may unduly widen the limited window for government-financed competition existing under present rules in the WTO Agreement on Agriculture – yet without increasing global food security or even guaranteeing that no subsidy claims will be launched, or entertained, under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Hence, the Work Programme should find more coherence between farm support and socio-economic and trade objectives when it comes to stockpiles. This also encompasses a review of the present WTO rules applying to other forms of food reserves and to regional or “virtual” stockpiles. Another “low hanging fruit” would be a decision to exempt food aid purchases from export restrictions.

Spring-mounted rasp bar sheller

A spring-mounted rasp bar sheller for com is described herein. The sheller comprises a plurality of spaced apart rasp bars mounted on a combine or sheller cylinder. Each of the rasp bars has studs secured thereto which extend therefrom through the cylinder backing plates. Springs are mounted on the studs behind the backing plates for yieldably urging the rasp bar inwardly towards the backing plate. Centrifugal force causes the rasp bar to move out radially towards the concave as the cylinder is rotated. During shelling, impact forces on the rasp bars deflect them radially inwardly. Filler plates are also disclosed for preventing the com from becoming lodged between the backing plate and the rasp bars.

Blade guard for rotary lawn mowers

A blade guard for rotary lawn mowers comprising a plurality of spaced apart elongated members which extend longitudinally in the intended direction of travel of the mower device. The space between the forward ends of the elongated members and the forward end of the mower cowling is open and free from obstructions to permit the grass to be sucked upwardly for cutting by the mower blade. The elongated members have varying lengths to define an effective area substantially the same as the area defined by the unsharpened center portion of the mower blade when rotating so that the sharpened ends of the blade extend outwardly beyond the effective area of the guard means. The guard means is hinged to the mower cowling to permit convenient cleaning of the mower. An ignition interlock means is also connected to the guard.

Cutting knife assembly for a combine

A cutting knife assembly for a combine having an elongated platform with an auger means rotatably mounted thereon. The auger means has first and second helical fighting sections extending inwardly from its ends which are adapted to convey the cut crop to the center of the platform. A first endless chain is operatively positioned forwardly of the first flighting section and has a plurality of first cutting elements mounted thereon. A second endless chain is operatively positioned forwardly of the second flighting section and has a plurality of second cutting elements mounted thereon. The first and second chains are operated in opposing directions so that the first and second cutting elements move away from the center of the platform as the cutting elements cut the standing crop. The opposing action of the cutting elements causes the crop stems to be properly oriented with respect to the flighting sections so that the stems will be inclined towards the center of the platform in the same direction as the auger feed.

Strain-gauge, brushless torque meter

A torque meter comprising hollow-keyed, input and output female shafts adapted to receive the male shafts of the power source and machine respectively. Each shaft has a circular flange whose face is perpendicular to the center line of the shafts. Each flange has a plurality of equally spaced cylindrical recesses machined into the inside face thereto adapted to receive conical inserts therein. Balls are contained by the conical inserts and transmit the rotational movement from the input to the output shaft. A stationary housing extends around the input and output shaft and has a transducer shell secured thereto. When force is applied to the input shaft to cause movement, the balls encounter torsional resistance which causes the balls to roll up the ramps of the conical seat inserts to separate the two torque flanges. The force transmitted through the balls causes rotation to the output shaft and produces tension to the stationary transducer shell. The stationary transducer shell is instrumented with semi-conductor strain gauges.

Rotary tiller slot planter and method for using the same

The rotary tiller slot planter of the present invention comprises a subsoiler shank positioned to engage the soil and make a trench therein. A pair of rotary tiller blades are rotatably mounted on the opposite sides of the sub-soil shank in planes parallel thereto. The center-lines of the rotary tiller wheels are located behind the subsoil shank. Each of the wheels have a plurality of blades extending radially outwardly from the rotational axis thereof and terminating in outer radial ends which engage the soil slightly ahead of the subsoiler shank and adjacent the lateral edges of the trench. A seed tube shank is positioned behind the subsoiler shank and between the tiller wheels. The seed tube shank has a lower end positioned to extend below the soil surface. A seed tube is positioned behind the seed tube shank for depositing seed in the soil. The rotation of the blades on opposite sides of the subsoil shank causes the soil to be mechanically aggregated and aerated and helps prepare a seed bed for the seeds. Also, the rotating tiller blades chop the debris which may be along the trench and throw soil backwards so as to cover the planted seed. Shorter rotary blades on the tiller wheels are shaped to throw debris and the upper one-half inch of soil sideways away from the row.

De la discapacidad como constructo social a las formas alternas del ser y estar en el mundo

La constitución del campo de la discapacidad expresa las condiciones históricas que responden a un concepto particular de hombre y de lo que una cultura pretende ofertar como condición de vida, sentido de vida para sus integrantes. Cada cultura instaura una promesa de proyección para que la existencia de cada uno encuentre una posición, valor y transcendencia. En esto radica el sustento filosófico de vida. Nos interesa para el caso del concepto de discapacidad ubicarla en el marco de la gestión social de su enunciado. Hay una separación abismal entre el discurso de Séguin, el apóstol de los sin razón y el discurso de Galton. Tal pareciera que Galton iba en búsqueda de ofrecer las condiciones para que el hombre alcanzara su perfectibilidad y la civilización el progreso, lo cual derivó en la comparación de los más avanzados en el proceso evolutivo y con ello se apoyó la diferenciación de umbrales de normalidad-anormalidad, en tanto que Séguin parecía seguidor de una ética de la fraternidad. Esta ética reconoce un mundo plural caracterizado por la heterogeneidad. Desde nuestra perspectiva la heterogeneidad requiere ser enfocada desde la diferencia, una diferencia que no se disuelva en los discursos de igualdad o equidad. Se trata de reconocer justamente las dimensiones de la diferencia, de explicitarla, comprenderla, investigarla y hacerla converger con el sentido originario de la educación. A cada diferencia le corresponde una posibilidad de vida dentro del mundo plural que posiblemente está por construirse. Se plantea en el trabajo un decálogo de reflexiones en los que se introduce una reconversión del significante “discapacidad" por la pluralidad de las formas de la existencia humana.

Simplicidad de Dios y pluralidad de nombres divinos : ¿una contradicción?

En el siglo XIII, ningún autor negaba la absoluta simplicidad de Dios. Sin embargo, se utilizaban múltiples nombres para hablar de lo divino. ¿Se pueden considerar verdaderos todos esos predicados, sin que ello implique concebir una multiplicidad real en la esencia divina? Este trabajo intenta mostrar, bajo la guía de Tomás de Aquino, que la pluralidad de atributos divinos no contradice la simplicidad divina y que, sin entenderlos como sinónimos, dichos nombres constituyen predicaciones verdaderas in divinis.

Alberto Magno y la revisión de la teoría hilemórfica de Aristóteles

La doctrina hilemórfica de la materia como pura potencia y la forma como acto parece no satisfacer al dominico Alberto Magno, pues le resulta insuficiente para explicar los procesos naturales. Por esto, redefine los principios metafísicos fundamentales del aristotelismo, y asimismo expone nuevos principios constitutivos de la realidad, bajo inspiración de la filosofía neoplatónica y del pensamiento árabe. Así, Alberto sostiene que la materia prima debe ser entendida como una suerte de realidad actualizada, compuesta por diversas formas incoadas previamente al advenimiento de la forma sustancial. La incohatio formae, según el dominico, dispone a la materia a recibir cierta forma en vez de otra en la futura generación, lo cual justifica la regularidad de todo proceso natural. La materia primera, entonces, no participa meramente como sustrato del cambio sustancial y no puede ser definida como una realidad completamente simple. Por sí misma, posee un esse materiae y constituye una entidad substancial, la materia posee un ser independiente de la forma, al igual que la forma es independiente de la materia. En los tratados de la Physica y Metaphysica, Alberto Magno desarrolla una doctrina propia, aunque claramente influenciada por la cosmología y metafísica averroísta.

A avaliação ambiental estratégica como ferramenta ao planejamento e à gestão do território

Planned to be a process of early evaluation of Politics, Plans and Programs (PPPs), which interfere in the environment; the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) suggests a methodology for planning and managing the land, which overcomes the limitations of the traditional plans that try to mitigate the environmental impacts of Projects, assuming a pro-active conception that incorporates the social and environmental aspects in the planning stage of the PPPs. This kind of Evaluation surpasses the existing limitations of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), once the EIA happens after the planning process, when lots of decisions have been made and carried out. In order to overcome the limitations of EIA, the SEA is a strategic tool in the process of planning and managing the land. When we focus on the PPPs and not on the Projects, the SEA, which is more political than technical, priorizes the strategies that assure the integration of the environmental, social, economic and institutional aspects into the planning process, in private or public organizations. In this context, this work aims to establish the concept basis of the Strategic Environmental Evaluation as a tool for land planning and managing. The methodology procedures used here lie in the literature review concerning the SEA, analyzing how this tool can be introduced as an alternative for sustainable development. Although the SEA is a tool that introduces the sustainable development theme as a guiding principle of planning, it is seldom used by managers and decision makers, locally and nationally

Entre la universidad, la empresa y el estado : Trayectorias personales, saberes y prácticas en la génesis del diseño industrial y de la comunicación visual en la Argentina. Décadas 1950 y 1960

El trabajo se propone analizar diferentes relaciones entre la universidad, la empresa privada y el Estado al momento del surgimiento del diseño industrial y de la comunicación visual, inscriptas bajo el ala del diseño como disciplina institucionalizada. Para tal fin haremos hincapié en las trayectorias de individuos y grupos que promovieron los nuevos espacios como cátedras, carreras, institutos, y departamentos en las universidades, departamentos y agencias en las empresas, e impulsaron la investigación y la formación especializada en una agencia estatal. A este respecto nos planteamos la reconstrucción y análisis de las posiciones y los tramas de relaciones sociales entre los actores, los liderazgos e ideas que confluyeron en ese marco institucionalizador. A fines de la década del ´50 se abrieron espacios en instituciones estatales ?universidades nacionales y agencias del Estado- desde los que se promovió la formación e investigación en diseño industrial y comunicación visual. Al mismo tiempo, en medio del proceso de industrialización que demandaba nuevos especialistas, las empresas privadas abrieron secciones específicas dedicadas a proyectar diseños integrales para sus productos. Para entender los sistemas de valores sobre los que se originaron estos espacios indagaremos en los documentos, artículos, libros y bienes materiales ?entre otros- que los propios actores pusieron en circulación en ese tiempo y lugar. Haremos foco en las categorías de análisis y en las definiciones por ellos dictadas en ese momento sobre el diseño. El impulso a esta nueva disciplina se abordará desde la complejidad de las trayectorias de estos agentes entendiendo la pluralidad de intereses, afinidades y razones dadas en los ámbitos público y privado. Desde esta perspectiva intentaremos dar cuenta de las historias de los individuos involucrados y de los grupos que integraron esos espacios, y su injerencia en la creación de una agencia estatal. Así podremos constatar los factores que determinaron las políticas de cambio, las prácticas y los métodos de estudio propuestos en la universidad, la empresa privada y el Estado

Dioses, Dios

"We are not jealous of gods, we do not serve them, we do not fear them, but at the risk of our lives, we attest for their multiple existence, and are stirred to be of their chancy keeping when they are no more remembered of". What could mean such a sentence written by René Char? Is it still possible to think and to experiment, here and now, after centuries of monotheism, something like a plurality of gods? What is it to be a pagan? Rereading Homer, and then Plato, Nietzsche and Lyotard, we could risk the following de´Çü nition: pagan is someone able to suppose, between performance and cosmos, that the one coming up to him is, may be, some god.