Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

Phylogenetic analysis of the family Thermaceae with an emphasis on signature position and secondary structure of 16S rRNA

The sequences of the 16S rRNA genes from 38 strains of the family Thermaceae were compared by alignment analysis. The genus-specific and species-specific base substitutions or base deletions (signature positions) were found in three hypervariable regions (in the helices 6, 10 and 17). The differentiation of secondary structures of the high variable regions in the 5' end (38-497) containing several signature positions further supported the concept. Based on the comparisons of the secondary structures in the segments of 16S rRNAs, a key to the species of the family Thermaceae was proposed. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. on behalf of the Federation of European Microbiological Societies.

The Phylogenetic Relationships of the Chinese and Vietnamese Waterfall frogs of the genus Amolops

Ranid frogs of the genus Amolops occur in Southeast Asia and are typically found near waterfalls. Their phylogenetic relationships have not been resolved. We include 2,213 aligned nucleotide sites of the 12S, 16S and tRNA(val) gene regions of the mitochondrial DNA genome from 43 individuals of Chinese and Vietnamese Amotops, Huia, Hylarana, Meristogenys, Odorrana and Rana. The outgroup species were from the genera Chaparana, Limnonectes, Nanorana, and Paa. The data were analyzed within the framework of a refutationist philosophy using maximum parsimony. Four clades of waterfall frogs were resolved. Meristogenys was not resolved as the sister group to either Huia nor Amolops. The hypothesis Of evolutionary relationships placed Amolops chapaensis and Huia nasica in the genus Odorrana.

Physical consequences of a nonparametric uncertainty model in structural dynamics

One of the main claims of the nonparametric model of random uncertainty introduced by Soize (2000) [3] is its ability to account for model uncertainty. The present paper investigates this claim by examining the statistics of natural frequencies, total energy and underlying dispersion equation yielded by the nonparametric approach for two simple systems: a thin plate in bending and a one-dimensional finite periodic massspring chain. Results for the plate show that the average modal density and the underlying dispersion equation of the structure are gradually and systematically altered with increasing uncertainty. The findings for the massspring chain corroborate the findings for the plate and show that the remote coupling of nonadjacent degrees of freedom induced by the approach suppresses the phenomenon of mode localization. This remote coupling also leads to an instantaneous response of all points in the chain when one mass is excited. In the light of these results, it is argued that the nonparametric approach can deal with a certain type of model uncertainty, in this case the presence of unknown terms of higher or lower order in the governing differential equation, but that certain expectations about the system such as the average modal density may conflict with these results. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Uncertainty management for on-line optimisation of a POMDP-based large-scale spoken dialogue system

The optimization of dialogue policies using reinforcement learning (RL) is now an accepted part of the state of the art in spoken dialogue systems (SDS). Yet, it is still the case that the commonly used training algorithms for SDS require a large number of dialogues and hence most systems still rely on artificial data generated by a user simulator. Optimization is therefore performed off-line before releasing the system to real users. Gaussian Processes (GP) for RL have recently been applied to dialogue systems. One advantage of GP is that they compute an explicit measure of uncertainty in the value function estimates computed during learning. In this paper, a class of novel learning strategies is described which use uncertainty to control exploration on-line. Comparisons between several exploration schemes show that significant improvements to learning speed can be obtained and that rapid and safe online optimisation is possible, even on a complex task. Copyright © 2011 ISCA.