Effects of phylogenetic signal on ancestral state reconstruction.

One of the standard tools used to understand the processes shaping trait evolution along the branches of a phylogenetic tree is the reconstruction of ancestral states (Pagel 1999). The purpose is to estimate the values of the trait of interest for every internal node of a phylogenetic tree based on the trait values of the extant species, a topology and, depending on the method used, branch lengths and a model of trait evolution (Ronquist 2004). This approach has been used in a variety of contexts such as biogeography (e.g., Nepokroeff et al. 2003, Blackburn 2008), ecological niche evolution (e.g., Smith and Beaulieu 2009, Evans et al. 2009) and metabolic pathway evolution (e.g., Gabaldón 2003, Christin et al. 2008). Investigations of the factors affecting the accuracy with which ancestral character states can be reconstructed have focused in particular on the choice of statistical framework (Ekman et al. 2008) and the selection of the best model of evolution (Cunningham et al. 1998, Mooers et al. 1999). However, other potential biases affecting these methods, such as the effect of tree shape (Mooers 2004), taxon sampling (Salisbury and Kim 2001) as well as reconstructing traits involved in species diversification (Goldberg and Igić 2008), have also received specific attention. Most of these studies conclude that ancestral character states reconstruction is still not perfect, and that further developments are necessary to improve its accuracy (e.g., Christin et al. 2010). Here, we examine how different estimations of branch lengths affect the accuracy of ancestral character state reconstruction. In particular, we tested the effect of using time-calibrated versus molecular branch lengths and provide guidelines to select the most appropriate branch lengths to reconstruct the ancestral state of a trait.

Discounting Spotted Apples: Investigating Consumers’ Willingness to Accept Cosmetic Damage in an Organic Product, November 2006

Organic producers have limited methods of avoiding plant diseases that result in cosmetic damage to produce. Therefore, the appearance of organic produce is often less than perfect. We use an experimental auction to investigate how cosmetic damage affects consumers’ willingness to pay for organic apples. We find that 75% of the participants are willing to pay more for organic than for conventional apples given identical appearance. However, at the first sight of any imperfection in the appearance of the organic apples, this segment is significantly reduced. Furthermore, we find that there is a significant effect of interaction between cosmetic damage and product methods. Even though most consumers say they buy organic products to avoid pesticides, we find that cosmetic damage has a larger impact on the willingness to pay for organic apples than for conventional apples.

Influence of the quality of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over a 1-yr period (study year) and compared with previously collected prospective data recorded in our chronic obstructive pulmonary disease database during a 5-yr period. SETTING: The medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eighty-seven patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Fifteen patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that required mechanical ventilation for acute exacerbation of their disease (study year), and 72 were patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the previously collected data. INTERVENTIONS: The ICU course (duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality) was recorded, as well as several respiratory parameters (pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gases in stable conditions, and nutritional status), and they were compared with an "index of nursing." MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed an "index of nursing", comparing the effective workforce of the nurses (number and qualifications) with the ideal workforce required by the number of patients and the severity of their diseases. A value of 1.0 represented a perfect match between the needed and the effectively present nurses, whereas a lesser value signified a diminished available workforce. This index was compared with the complications and duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation. During the first 5 yrs, the duration of mechanical ventilation increased progressively from 7.3 +/- 8.0 to 38.2 +/- 25.8 days (p = .006). A significant inverse correlation between the duration of mechanical ventilation and the nursing index (p = .025) was found. In the sixth comparative year, the number of nurses increased (nursing index = 1.05) and the duration of mechanical ventilation decreased to 9.9 +/- 13 days (p < .001, yr 5 vs. yr 6). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of nursing appears to be a measurable and critical factor in the weaning from mechanical ventilation of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Below a threshold in the available workforce of ICU nurses, the weaning duration of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases dramatically. Therefore, very close attention should be given to the education and number of ICU nurses.

Scientific Literature on the Reliability and Validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) Protocol: A Integrative Literature Review

OBJECTIVE To analyze the scientific production about the validity and reliability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) protocol. METHOD A descriptive study of an integrative literature review. Articles on the validity and reliability of the MTS developed with children and adults published between 1999 and 2013 were included. RESULTS 14 articles were selected from a total of 8438, nine of validity and five of reliability. The reliability of the MTS ranged from moderate to almost perfect, with higher intra-evaluation. Regarding validity, the results seem to point to equivalent and satisfactory sensibility and specificity levels of the MTS. The instrument proved to be a good predictor of the need for hospitalization and of hospital mortality. CONCLUSION The reliability and validity of the MTS obtained in the studies is varied. It is recommended that new studies indicate necessary modifications to the MTS so that it is more safely used by nurses.

The Minimum Safety Standard, Consumers’ Information, and Competition, February 2007

This paper explores the effects of a standard influencing care choice. Firm(s) may increase the probability of offering safe products by incurring a cost. Under duopoly, they compete either in prices or in quantities. Under perfect information about safety for consumers, the selected standard that corrects a safety underinvestment is always compatible with competition. Safety over investment only emerges under competition in quantities and relatively low values of the cost. Under imperfect information about safety for consumers, the standard leads to a monopoly situation. However, for relatively large values of the cost, a standard cannot impede the market failure coming from the lack of information.

Selective tumor localization of radiolabeled anti-human melanoma monoclonal antibody fragment demonstrated in the nude mouse model.

Monoclonal antibodies (Mab) directed against distinct epitopes of the human 240 kD melanoma-associated antigen have been evaluated for their capacity to localize in human melanoma grafted into nude mice. A favorable tumor to normal tissue ratio of 13 was obtained with intact 131I-labeled MAb Me1-14. This ratio was further increased to 43 and 23 by the use of F(ab')2 and Fab fragments, respectively. The specificity of tumor localization was demonstrated by the simultaneous injection of F(ab')2 fragments from MAb Me1-14 and anti-CEA MAb 35, each labeled with a different iodine isotope, into nude mice grafted with a melanoma and colon carcinoma. The fragments from both MAb localized with perfect selectivity in their relevant tumor as shown by differential whole body scanning and by direct measurement of the two isotopes in tumors and normal tissues. These in vivo experimental results suggest that the F(ab')2 fragment from MAb Me1-14 is suitable for melanoma detection by immunoscintigraphy in patients.

Heterogeneity as a coordination device

A model of directed search with a finite number of buyers and sellers is considered, where sellers compete in direct mechanisms. Buyer heterogeneity and Nash equilibrium results in perfect sorting. The restriction to complementary inputs, that the match value function Q is supermodular, in addition coordinates the sellers strategies. In that case, equilibrium implements positive assortative matching, which is efficient and consistent with the stable (cooperative equilibrium) outcome. This provides a non-cooperative and decentralizedsolution for the Assignment Game. Conversely, if buyers are identical, no such coordination is possible, and there is a continuum of equilibria, one of which exhibits price posting, another yields competition in auctions.

On a series of Goldbach and Euler

Theorem 1 of Euler s paper of 1737 'Variae Observationes Circa Series Infinitas', states the astonishing result that the series of all unit fractions whose denominators are perfect powers of integers minus unity has sum one. Euler attributes the Theorem to Goldbach. The proof is one of those examples of misuse of divergent series to obtain correct results so frequent during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. We examine this proof closelyand, with the help of some insight provided by a modern (and completely dierent) proof of the Goldbach-Euler Theorem, we present a rational reconstruction in terms which could be considered rigorous by modern Weierstrassian standards. At the same time, with a few ideas borrowed from nonstandard analysis we see how the same reconstruction can be also be considered rigorous by modern Robinsonian standards. This last approach, though, is completely in tune with Goldbach and Euler s proof. We hope to convince the reader then how, a few simple ideas from nonstandard analysis, vindicate Euler's work.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

On the impact of leverage constraints on asset prices and trading volume

Researchers have used stylized facts on asset prices and trading volumein stock markets (in particular, the mean reversion of asset returnsand the correlations between trading volume, price changes and pricelevels) to support theories where agents are not rational expected utilitymaximizers. This paper shows that this empirical evidence is in factconsistent with a standard infite horizon perfect information expectedutility economy where some agents face leverage constraints similar tothose found in todays financial markets. In addition, and in sharpcontrast to the theories above, we explain some qualitative differencesthat are observed in the price-volume relation on stock and on futuresmarkets. We consider a continuous-time economy where agents maximize theintegral of their discounted utility from consumption under both budgetand leverage con-straints. Building on the work by Vila and Zariphopoulou(1997), we find a closed form solution, up to a negative constant, for theequilibrium prices and demands in the region of the state space where theconstraint is non-binding. We show that, at the equilibrium, stock holdingsvolatility as well as its ratio to stock price volatility are increasingfunctions of the stock price and interpret this finding in terms of theprice-volume relation.

Information acquisition and entry

Before firms decide whether to enter a new market or not, they havethe opportunity to buy information about several variables that might affectthe profitability of this market. Our model differs from the existing literatureon endogenous information acquisition in two respects: (1) there is uncertaintyabout more than one variable, and (2) information is acquired secretly. Whenthe cost of acquiring information is small, entry decisions will be as ifthere was perfect information. Equilibria where each firm acquires only asmall amount of information are more robust than the socially undesirableequilibria where all firms gather all information. Examples illustrate theimportance of assumptions (1) and (2).

Dynamic price competition with fixed capacities

Many revenue management (RM) industries are characterized by (a) fixed capacities in theshort term (e.g., hotel rooms, seats on an airline flight), (b) homogeneous products (e.g., twoairline flights between the same cities at similar times), and (c) customer purchasing decisionslargely influenced by price. Competition in these industries is also very high even with just twoor three direct competitors in a market. However, RM competition is not well understood andpractically all known implementations of RM software and most published models of RM donot explicitly model competition. For this reason, there has been considerable recent interestand research activity to understand RM competition. In this paper we study price competitionfor an oligopoly in a dynamic setting, where each of the sellers has a fixed number of unitsavailable for sale over a fixed number of periods. Demand is stochastic, and depending on howit evolves, sellers may change their prices at any time. This reflects the fact that firms constantly,and almost costlessly, change their prices (alternately, allocations at a price in quantity-basedRM), reacting either to updates in their estimates of market demand, competitor prices, orinventory levels. We first prove existence of a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium for a duopoly.In equilibrium, in each state sellers engage in Bertrand competition, so that the seller withthe lowest reservation value ends up selling a unit at a price that is equal to the equilibriumreservation value of the competitor. This structure hence extends the marginal-value conceptof bid-price control, used in many RM implementations, to a competitive model. In addition,we show that the seller with the lowest capacity sells all its units first. Furthermore, we extendthe results transparently to n firms and perform a number of numerical comparative staticsexploiting the uniqueness of the subgame-perfect equilibrium.

Noise and aggregation of information in large markets

We study a novel class of noisy rational expectations equilibria in markets with largenumber of agents. We show that, as long as noise increases with the number of agents inthe economy, the limiting competitive equilibrium is well-defined and leads to non-trivialinformation acquisition, perfect information aggregation, and partially revealing prices,even if per capita noise tends to zero. We find that in such equilibrium risk sharing and price revelation play dierent roles than in the standard limiting economy in which per capita noise is not negligible. We apply our model to study information sales by a monopolist, information acquisition in multi-asset markets, and derivatives trading. Thelimiting equilibria are shown to be perfectly competitive, even when a strategic solutionconcept is used.

Caution, children crossing: Heterogeneity of victim's cost of care and negligence rule

The paper deals with a bilateral accident situation in which victims haveheterogeneous costs of care. With perfect information,efficient care bythe injurer raises with the victim's cost. When the injurer cannot observeat all the victim's type, and this fact can be verified by Courts, first-bestcannot be implemented with the use of a negligence rule based on thefirst-best levels of care. Second-best leads the injurer to intermediate care,and the two types of victims to choose the best response to it. This second-bestsolution can be easily implemented by a negligence rule with second-best as duecare. We explore imperfect observation of the victim's type, characterizing theoptimal solution and examining the different legal alternatives when Courts cannotverify the injurers' statements. Counterintuitively, we show that there is nodifference at all between the use by Courts of a rule of complete trust and arule of complete distrust towards the injurers' statements. We then relate thefindings of the model to existing rules and doctrines in Common Law and Civil Lawlegal systems.

Finite horizon bargaining and the consistent field

This paper explores the relationships between noncooperative bargaining games and the consistent value for non-transferable utility (NTU) cooperative games. A dynamic approach to the consistent value for NTU games is introduced: the consistent vector field. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the consistent field is intimately related to the concept of subgame perfection for finite horizon noncooperative bargaining games, as the horizon goes to infinity and the cost of delay goes to zero. The solutions of the dynamic system associated to the consistent field characterize the subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs of the noncooperative bargaining games. We show that for transferable utility, hyperplane and pure bargaining games, the dynamics of the consistent fields converge globally to the unique consistent value. However, in the general NTU case, the dynamics of the consistent field can be complex. An example is constructed where the consistent field has cyclic solutions; moreover, the finite horizon subgame perfect equilibria do not approach the consistent value.