The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

A note on estimating market–based minimum capital risk requirements: a multivariate GARCH approach

Internal risk management models of the kind popularized by J. P. Morgan are now used widely by the world’s most sophisticated financial institutions as a means of measuring risk. Using the returns on three of the most popular futures contracts on the London International Financial Futures Exchange, in this paper we investigate the possibility of using multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a method for the estimation of the value at risk of a portfolio based on a multivariate GARCH model. We find that the consideration of the correlation between the contracts can lead to more accurate, and therefore more appropriate, MCRRs compared with the values obtained from a univariate approach to the problem.

The use of risk registers by project managers

The construction industry is widely recognised as being inherent with risk and uncertainty. This necessitates the need for effective project risk management to achieve the project objectives of time, cost and quality. A popular tool employed in projects to aid in the management of risk is a risk register. This tool documents the project risks and is often employed by the Project Manager (PM) to manage the associated risks on a project. This research aims to ascertain how widely risk registers are used by Project Managers as part of their risk management practices. To achieve this aim entailed interviewing ten PMs, to discuss their use of the risk register as a risk management tool. The results from these interviews indicated the prevalent use of this document and recognised its effectiveness in the management of project risks. The findings identified the front end and feasibility phases of a project as crucial stages for using risk registers, noting it as a vital ingredient in the risk response planning of the decision making process. Moreover, the composition of the risk register was also understood, with an insight into how PMs produce and develop this tool also ascertained. In conclusion, this research signifies the extensive use of the risk register by PMs. A majority of PMs were of the view that risk registers constitute an essential component of their project risk management practices. This suggests a need for further research on the extent to which risk registers actually help PMs to control the risks in a construction project, particularly residual risks, and how this can be improved to minimize deviations from expected outcomes.

Private climate change reporting: an emerging discourse of risk and opportunity?

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

Foreign direct investment in high-risk environments: an historical perspective

Since the banking crisis of 2008 the global economy is perceived as riskier than before. Firms that cannot manage risks have withdrawn from countries in which they previously invested. These problems are not new. For centuries firms have invested in risky foreign environments, and many of them have succeeded. This paper reviews the risk management strategies of foreign investors. Using archival evidence and secondary sources it distinguishes the different types of risks that investors face and the different strategies by which risks can be managed. It investigates which strategies are used to manage which types of risk.

Private climate change reporting: a discourse of risk and opportunity

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements

This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modification to the model is found to improve the accuracy of MCRR estimates in both back- and out-of-sample tests. Given that internal risk management models are currently in widespread usage in some parts of the world (most notably the USA), and will soon be permitted for EC banks and investment firms, we believe that our paper should serve as a valuable caution to risk management practitioners who are using, or intend to use this popular class of models.

Paying for long-term performance: restructuring bankers’ pay for risk regulation

The purpose of this paper is to propose hybrid capital securities as a new approach to compensation for senior bank executives and risk-takers instead of cash or equity-based compensation currently adopted by the industry. The global financial turmoil indicated that misaligned pay-for-performance compensation arrangements encouraged management short-termism and rewarded excessive risk-taking behaviour in Anglo-Saxon system. Rather than regulating specific instruments and processes, we believe that it is much more efficient to overhaul the compensation scheme to align it with risk management and governance. This empirical paper investigates the European hybrid market by employing data from the Merrill Lynch Global Index System from 2000 to 2010. Our paper contributes to both literature and practices by designing a structured scheme to tie the executive’s interests to long-term performance of the bank, the goal of regulators and the economy at large which consequently reduce the probability of future bank failures.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Earnings at Risk para as Instituições Não-Financeiras e as Exigências da Lei Americana Sarbanes-Oxley

A demanda pela responsabilidade corporativa nunca foi tão grande. A necessidade de aliar a governança corporativa a atividades de controle eficientes nunca foi tão clara. Essa dissertação tem como objetivo responder a questão sobre se a abordagem Top Down do Earnings at Risk pode ser considerada como compatível às demandas da Sarbanes Oxley, e adicionalmente, um método eficiente de gerenciamento de riscos para as empresas não financeiras. Baseado nos resultados que encontramos a abordagem Top Down do Earnings at Risk não atende às demandas impostas pela Sarbanes-Oxley. Embora a SOX atente para a eficácia e não para eficiência dos controles utilizados pelas empresas, decisões gerenciais baseadas neste método podem conduzir a empresa a possíveis erros.

O gerenciamento de riscos na prevenção de perdas trabalhistas : um estudo de caso no Grupo Eberle Mundial

Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral verificar como uma empresa gerencia seus riscos trabalhistas com vistas a preveni-los. É um estudo de caso único, de natureza descritiva e qualitativa. Foi desenvolvido junto ao Grupo Eberle Mundial, através de entrevista do Gerente de Recursos Humanos, questionário auto-aplicado por sete membros do corpo executivo da organização, exame de documentos e análise de artigos de revistas e de jornais. Paralelamente, buscou experiências e opiniões de quatro especialistas da área trabalhista, também mediante questionário auto-aplicado. Em face dos resultados obtidos, o trabalho descreve a forma de gerenciamento de riscos trabalhistas adotada pelo Grupo Eberle Mundial e atende os objetivos específicos nos termos adiante sintetizados. Demonstra que o Grupo mantém rotinas para identificação de riscos trabalhistas, porém, não pratica a definição prévia do que sejam riscos relevantes e não relevantes. Identifica uma diversidade de riscos trabalhistas percebidos pelo Grupo e verifica que esses não abrangem riscos operacionais. Mostra que o Grupo criou métodos e instrumentos de trabalho próprios para o gerenciamento de seus riscos trabalhistas, atua de forma permanente na prevenção desses e faz a revisão anual de seus processos, buscando chegar à incorporação dessa filosofia à cultura da empresa, contudo, não mantém um sistema que integre seus procedimentos, na forma proposta pela literatura. Confirma que, através do projeto implantado pela nova administração, o Grupo que, em 1998, estava com sua sobrevivência comprometida, até 2003 já reduziu em mais de 50% as perdas financeiras que vinha sofrendo e restabeleceu sua credibilidade e imagem internas e externas. Constata que existe comprometimento da alta direção do Grupo com o gerenciamento de riscos trabalhistas, todavia, esse comprometimento não é do conhecimento de todos membros do corpo executivo da organização. Aponta que o Grupo não mantém área específica para gerenciamento de seus riscos trabalhistas, nem tem claro quem são os profissionais responsáveis por esses procedimentos.

Risco operacional em tesourarias bancárias

Esta dissertação desenvolve um estudo sobre o risco operacional nas tesourarias bancárias e tem por objetivo elaborar um modelo explicativo do impacto desse fenômeno no resultado da tesouraria. O estudo inicia com uma pesquisa dos modelos de firma bancária presentes na literatura especializada, visando conhecer o estado da arte da modelagem desse tipo de organização. Em seguida, é caracterizada a tesouraria bancária, com o objetivo de identificar seu papel e importância para a organização bancária. Na seqüência, o trabalho apresenta o conceito geral de risco e a classificação utilizada pela indústria financeira e também disserta sobre o risco operacional e sua importância para o gerenciamento dos bancos. Ao final do estudo, é desenvolvido o modelo de risco operacional em tesouraria e demonstrada sua influência no resultado final da tesouraria. Como conclusão geral, verifica-se que maiores probabilidades de ocorrência de falhas operacionais estão associadas a menor eficiência da tesouraria, com conseqüente impacto negativo no resultado.

Uma análise do gerenciamento de riscos nas consultorias de tecnologia de informação

o objetivo principal deste trabalho é verificar como as organizações se comportam no processo de priorização dos riscos a serem gerenciados. A questão analisada consiste em especificar em por que e como, no processo de gestão de riscos, as organizações priorizam os riscos do tipo financeiro em detrimento aos riscos dos tipos estratégico e operacional. Um questionário foi aplicado a um número significativo de gerentes de projeto das principais empresas multinacionais de consultoria em tecnologia de informação com escritórios no Rio de Janeiro foram entrevistados. Pretendeu-se (i) mostrar uma análise do uso das metodologias de risco em projetos desenvolvidos no Brasil, (ii) realizar uma compararação entre os critérios adotados pelas organizações para priorização e tratamento dos riscos com os pretendidos pelos gerentes de projetos, (iii) avaliar o processo de comunicação e sua influência no gerenciamento de riscos bem como (iv) realizar uma comparação da aplicação das metodologias em projetos nacionais e desenvolvidos para atender clientes fora do país. Os resultados obtidos nos questionários permitiram concluir que: • os riscos priorizados pelas organizações são do tipo financeiro e que as mesmas deveriam dar maior atenção aos riscos do tipo estratégicos; • os gerentes de projetos identificam as falhas no processo de comunicação interna como uma das principais causas de problemas enfrentados na gestão de riscos; e • as metodologias internacionalmente conhecidas e adotadas pelas organizações são adequadas aos projetos desenvolvidos no Brasil.