Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

A Submission to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee on the Copyright Amendment (Online Infringement) Bill 2015 (Cth)

The film company, Roadshow, the pay television company Foxtel, and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and News Limited — as well as copyright industries — have been clamouring for new copyright powers and remedies. In the summer break, the Coalition Government has responded to such entreaties from its industry supporters and donors, with a new package of copyright laws and policies. There has been significant debate over the proposals between the odd couple of Attorney-General George Brandis and the Minister for Communications, Malcolm Turnbull. There has been deep, philosophical differences between the two Ministers over the copyright agenda. The Attorney-General George Brandis has supported a model of copyright maximalism, with strong rights and remedies for the copyright empires in film, television, and publishing. He has shown little empathy for the information technology companies of the digital economy. The Attorney-General has been impatient to press ahead with a copyright regime. The Minister for Communications, Malcolm Turnbull, has been somewhat more circumspect,recognising that there is a need to ensure that copyright laws do not adversely impact upon competition in the digital economy. The final proposal is a somewhat awkward compromise between the discipline-and-punish regime preferred by Brandis, and the responsive regulation model favoured by Turnbull. In his new book, Information Doesn’t Want to Be Free: Laws for the Internet Age, Cory Doctorow has some sage advice for copyright owners: Things that don’t make money: * Complaining about piracy. * Calling your customers thieves. * Treating your customers like thieves. In this context, the push by copyright owners and the Coalition Government to have a copyright crackdown may well be counter-productive to their interests. This submission considers a number of key elements of the Coalition Government’s Copyright Crackdown. Part 1 examines the proposals in respect of the Copyright Amendment (Online Infringement) Bill 2015 (Cth). Part 2 focuses upon the proposed Copyright Code. Part 3 considers the question of safe harbours for intermediaries. Part 4 examines the question of copyright exceptions – particularly looking at the proposal of the Australian Law Reform Commission for the introduction of a defence of fair use. Part 5 highlights the recommendations of the IT Pricing Inquiry and the Harper Competition Policy Review in respect of copyright law, consumer rights, and competition law.

Prevalence and risk factors for foot and ankle musculoskeletal disorders experienced by nurses

Background Nurses are at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Although the prevalence of MSDs of the lower back, upper limbs, neck and shoulders have been reported previously in nursing, few studies have evaluated MSDs of the foot and ankle. This study evaluated the prevalence of foot and ankle MSDs in nurses and their relation to individual and workplace risk factors. Methods A self-administered survey incorporating the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) was distributed, over a nine-week period, to all eligible nurses (n = 416) working in a paediatric hospital in Brisbane, Australia. The prevalence of MSDs for each of the NMQ body regions was determined. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationships between activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs and risk factors related to the individual (age, body mass index, number of existing foot conditions, smoking history, general physical health [SF36 Physical Component Scale], footwear features) or the workplace (level of nursing position, work location, average hours worked, hours worked in previous week, time since last break from work). Results A 73% response rate was achieved with 304 nurses completing surveys, of whom 276 were females (91%). Mean age of the nurses was 37 years (±10), younger than the state average of 43 years. Foot/ankle MSDs were the most prevalent conditions experienced by nurses during the preceding seven days (43.8%, 95% CI 38.2-49.4%), the second most prevalent MSDs to impair physical activity (16.7%, 95% CI 13.0-21.3%), and the third most prevalent MSD, after lower-back and neck problems, during the preceding 12 months (55.3%, 95% CI 49.6-60.7%). Of the nurse and work characteristics investigated, obesity, poor general physical health, existing foot conditions and working in the intensive care unit emerged as statistically significant (p < 0.05) independent risk factors for activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs. Conclusions Foot/ankle MSDs are common in paediatric hospital nurses and resulted in physical activity limitations in one out of every six nurses. We recommend targeted education programs regarding the prevention, self-management and treatment strategies for foot/ankle MSDs. Further research is needed into the impact of work location and extended shift durations on foot/ankle MSDs.

Synergistic fusion of vertical graphene nanosheets and carbon nanotubes for high-performance supercapacitor electrodes

Graphene and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are attractive electrode materials for supercapacitors. However, challenges such as the substrate-limited growth of CNTs, nanotube bundling in liquid electrolytes, under-utilized basal planes, and stacking of graphene sheets have so far impeded their widespread application. Here we present a hybrid structure formed by the direct growth of CNTs onto vertical graphene nanosheets (VGNS). VGNS are fabricated by a green plasma-assisted method to break down and reconstruct a natural precursor into an ordered graphitic structure. The synergistic combination of CNTs and VGNS overcomes the challenges intrinsic to both materials. The resulting VGNS/CNTs hybrids show a high specific capacitance with good cycling stability. The charge storage is based mainly on the non-Faradaic mechanism. In addition, a series of optimization experiments were conducted to reveal the critical factors that are required to achieve the demonstrated high supercapacitor performance.

Exploring the nexus between tourism and output in Cook Islands: An ARDL bounds approach

Tourism plays an important role in the development of Cook Islands. In this paper we examine the nexus between tourism and growth using quarterly data over the period 2009Q1–2014Q2 using the recently upgraded ARDL bounds test to cointegration tool, Microfit 5.01, which provides sample adjusted bounds and hence is more reliable for small sample size studies. We perform the cointegration using the ARDL bounds test and examine the direction of causality. Using visitor arrival and output in per capita terms as respective proxy for tourism development and growth, we examine the long-run association and report the elasticity coefficient of tourism and causality nexus, accordingly. Using unit root break tests, we note that 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 are two structural break periods in the output series. However, we note that this period is not statistically significant in the ARDL model and hence excluded from the estimation. Subsequently, the regression results show the two series are cointegrated. The long-run elasticity coefficient of tourism is estimated to be 0.83 and the short-run is 0.73. A bidirectional causality between tourism and income is noted for Cook Islands which indicates that tourism development and income mutually reinforce each other. In light of this, socio-economic policies need to focus on broad-based, inclusive and income-generating tourism development projects which are expected to have feedback effect.

Evidence-based recommendations for the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

• As part of the 3E program, we conducted a systematic literature review and gathered consensus from 23 practising Australian rheumatologists to develop guidelines for early identification of ankylosing spondylitis and specialist referral. • In three rounds of break-out sessions followed by discussion and voting, the specialist panel addressed three questions related to diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis: In individuals with back pain, what are the early clinical features that suggest ankylosing spondylitis? How useful is imaging in identifying early ankylosing spondylitis? Based on which clinical features should a general practitioner refer a patient to a rheumatologist for further evaluation? • The panel agreed on six recommendations related to the three questions: 1a. Early clinical features to suggest ankylosing spondylitis include inflammatory back pain and age at symptom onset < 45 years. 1b. The absence of symptomatic response to an appropriate course of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs makes the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis less likely. 1c. Raised inflammatory markers are supportive, but their absence does not rule out the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis. 2a. Despite low sensitivity to detect changes of early ankylosing spondylitis, plain radiographs of the pelvis and spine are appropriate initial imaging techniques. 2b. Magnetic resonance imaging is a useful imaging modality for detecting early changes of ankylosing spondylitis. 3. Individuals with inflammatory back pain should be referred to a rheumatologist for further evaluation. • Effective dissemination and implementation of these recommendations are important to standardise the approach to early diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis.

The long drive home: Control beliefs and commuting intentions of mine workers

Purpose: It is relatively common for many mine workers in Australia to drive an average of 250 kilometers to and from work following long shifts and shift blocks. Despite the long distances travelled following long shifts of 12- to 14-hours, there is evidence to suggest that these workers are not engaging in a break following their shift prior to driving home. This naturally raises issues of fatigue and sleepiness when driving. There is limited research in respect to commuting behaviours of mine workers and little is known about the factors that influence these workers to leave site immediately following their shift. Using the theory of planned behaviour, this paper examines individual control beliefs that encourage or prevent workers from leaving the site immediately following their shift block. Method: Data was collected using a cross-sectional survey. The survey instrument was developed following a series of in-depth interviews with workers from a Queensland coal mine (n=37). The quantitative written survey sample (n=461) was drawn from the same coal mine and consisted of workers from all levels of the organisation. Results: The results examine workers intentions to leave the work site and drive home immediately following a shift block. The results show differences in control beliefs between workers finishing night shifts compared with those finishing day shifts. Implications: An understanding of these control beliefs may potentially inform more targeted intervention strategies in the attempt to encourage a safer approach to driving home following shift blocks.

High-Pressure Kinetics of Vinyl Polyperoxides

This is the first report on studies carried out in detail on high-pressure oxygen copolymerization (> 50 psi) of the vinyl monomers styrene and alpha-methylstyrene (AMS). The saturation pressure of oxygen for AMS oxidation, hitherto obscure, is found to be 300 psi. Whereas the ease of oxidation is more favorable for styrene, the rate and yield of polyperoxide formation are higher for AMS. This is explained on the basis of the reactivity of the corresponding alkyl and peroxy radicals. Below 50 degrees C, degradation of the poly(styrene peroxide) formed is about 2.5 times less than that observed above 50 degrees C, so much so that it gives a break in the rate curve, and thereafter the rate is lowered. Normal free radical kinetics is followed before the break point, after which the monomer and initiator exponents become unusually high. This is interpreted on the basis of chain transfer to the degradation products. The low molecular weight of polyperoxides has been attributed to the (i) low reactivity of RO(2)(.) toward the monomer, (ii) chain transfer to degradation products, (iii) facile cleavage of O-O bond, followed by unzipping to nonradical products, and (iv) higher stability of the reinitiating radicals. At lower temperatures, (i) predominates, whereas at higher temperatures, chiefly (ii)-(iv) are the case.

Dynamics of ribonuclease A and ribonuclease S: Computational and experimental studies

RNase S is a complex consisting of two proteolytic fragments of RNase A: the S peptide (residues 1-20) and S protein (residues 21-124). RNase S and RNase A have very similar X-ray structures and enzymatic activities. previous experiments have shown increased rates of hydrogen exchange and greater sensitivity to tryptic cleavage for RNase S relative to RNase A. It has therefore been asserted that the RNase S complex is considerably more dynamically flexible than RNase A. In the present study we examine the differences in the dynamics of RNaseS and RNase A computationally, by MD simulations, and experimentally, using trypsin cleavage as a probe of dynamics. The fluctuations around the average solution structure during the simulation were analyzed by measuring the RMS deviation in coordinates. No significant differences between RNase S and RNase A dynamics were observed in the simulations. We were able to account for the apparent discrepancy between simulation and experiment by a simple model, According to this model, the experimentally observed differences in dynamics can be quantitatively explained by the small amounts of free S peptide and S protein that are present in equilibrium with the RNase S complex. Thus, folded RNase A and the RNase S complex have identical dynamic behavior, despite the presence of a break in polypeptide chain between residues 20 and 21 in the latter molecule. This is in contrast to what has been widely believed for over 30 years about this important fragment complementation system.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

A phase field study of morphological instabilities in multilayer thin films

We studied the microstructural evolution of multiple layers of elastically stiff films embedded in an elastically soft matrix using a phase field model. The coherent and planar film/matrix interfaces are rendered unstable by the elastic stresses due to a lattice parameter mismatch between the film and matrix phases, resulting in the break-up of the films into particles. With an increasing volume fraction of the stiff phase, the elastic interactions between neighbouring layers lead to: (i) interlayer correlations from an early stage; (ii) a longer wavelength for the maximally growing wave; and therefore (iii) a delayed break-LIP. Further, they promote a crossover in the mode of instability from a predominantly anti-symmetric (in phase) one to a symmetric (out of phase) one. We have computed a stability diagram for the most probable mode of break-up in terms of elastic modulus Mismatch and Volume fraction. We rationalize our results in terms of the initial driving force for destabilization, and corroborate our conclusions using simulations in elastically anisotropic systems.

Corporate governance and law reform in Japan: From the lost decade to the end of history?

Japan is in the midst of massive law reform. Mired in ongoing recession since the early 1990s, Japan has been implementing a new regulatory blueprint to kickstart a sluggish economy through structural change. A key element to this reform process is a rethink of corporate governance and its stakeholder relations. With a patchwork of legislative initiatives in areas as diverse as corporate law, finance, labour relations, consumer protection, public administration and civil justice, this new model is beginning to take shape. But to what extent does this model represent a break from the past? Some commentators are breathlessly predicting the "Americanisation" of Japanese law. They see the triumph of Western-style capitalism - the "End of History", to borrow the words of Francis Fukuyama - with its emphasis on market-based, arms-length transactions. Others are more cautious, advancing the view that there new reforms are merely "creative twists" on what is a uniquely (although slowly evolving) strand of Japanese capitalism. This paper takes issue with both interpretations. It argues that the new reforms merely follow Japan's long tradition of 'adopting and adapting' foreign models to suit domestic purposes. They are neither the wholesale importation of "Anglo-Saxon" regulatory principles nor a thin veneer over a 'uniquely unique' form of Confucian cultural capitalism. Rather, they represent a specific and largely political solution (conservative reformism) to a current economic problem (recession). The larger themes of this paper are 'change' and 'continuity'. 'Change' suggests evolution to something identifiable; 'continuity' suggests adhering to an existing state of affairs. Although notionally opposites, 'change' and 'continuity' have something in common - they both suggest some form of predictability and coherence in regulatory reform. Our paper, by contrast, submits that Japanese corporate governance reform or, indeed, law reform more generally in Japan, is context-specific, multi-layered (with different dimensions not necessarily pulling all in the same direction for example, in relations with key outside suppliers), and therefore more random or 'chaotic'.

Gamma-ray luminosity function of gamma-ray bright AGNs

Detection of gamma-ray emissions from a class of active galactic nuclei (viz blazars), has been one of the important findings from the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO). However, their gamma-ray luminosity function has not-been well determined. Few attempts have been made in earlier works, where BL Lacs and Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars (FSRQs) have been considered as a single source class. In this paper, we investigated the evolution and gamma-ray luminosity function of FSRQs and BL Lacs separately. Our investigation indicates no evolution for BL Lacs, however FSRQs show significant evolution. Pure luminosity evolution is assumed for FSRQs and exponential and power law evolution models are examined. Due to the small number of sources, the low luminosity end index of the luminosity function for FSRQs is constrained with an upper limit. BL Lac luminosity function shows no signature of break. As a consistency check, the model source distributions derived from these luminosity functions show no significant departure from the observed source distributions.

Diversity: Cultural and biological

Early human populations utilized a wide range of biological resources in a tremendous diversity of environments. As a result, they possessed high levels of cultural diversity dependent on and supportive of high levels of biological diversity. This pattern changed drastically with technological innovations enabling certain human groups to break down territorial barriers and to usurp resources of other groups. The dominant groups have gone on to exhaust a whole range of resources, depleting both biological and cultural diversity. Traditions of resource conservation can, however, re-emerge when the dominant cultures spread over the entire area and the innovations diffuse to other human groups. This could change once again as genetically engineered organisms become an economically viable proposition with the accruing advantages concentrated in the hands of a few human groups: a further drastic reduction in biological and cultural diversity may ensue.

Methodological innovation in precarious spaces: The case of Twitter

Social media analytics is a rapidly developing field of research at present: new, powerful ‘big data’ research methods draw on the Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) of social media platforms. Twitter has proven to be a particularly productive space for such methods development, initially due to the explicit support and encouragement of Twitter, Inc. However, because of the growing commercialisation of Twitter data, and the increasing API restrictions imposed by Twitter, Inc., researchers are now facing a considerably less welcoming environment, and are forced to find additional funding for paid data access, or to bend or break the rules of the Twitter API. This article considers the increasingly precarious nature of ‘big data’ Twitter research, and flags the potential consequences of this shift for academic scholarship.