How Does Age at Onset Influence the Outcome of Autoimmune Diseases?

The age at onset refers to the time period at which an individual experiences the first symptoms of a disease. In autoimmune diseases (ADs), these symptoms can be subtle but are very relevant for diagnosis. They can appear during childhood, adulthood or late in life and may vary depending on the age at onset. Variables like mortality and morbidity and the role of genes will be reviewed with a focus on the major autoimmune disorders, namely, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), Sjögren's syndrome, and autoimmune thyroiditis (AITD). Early age at onset is a worst prognostic factor for some ADs (i.e., SLE and T1D), while for others it does not have a significant influence on the course of disease (i.e., SS) or no unanimous consensus exists (i.e., RA and MS).

Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war

Why do some civil wars terminate soon, with victory of one party over the other? What determines if the winner is the incumbent or the rebel group? Why do other conáicts last longer? We propose a simple model in which the power of each armed group depends on the number of combatants it is able to recruit. This is in turn a function of the relative ëdistanceíbetween group leaderships and potential recruits. We emphasize the moral hazard problem of recruitment: Öghting is costly and risky so combatants have the incentive to defect from their task. They can also desert altogether and join the enemy. This incentive is stronger the farther away the Öghter is from the principal, since monitoring becomes increasingly costly. Bigger armies have more power but less monitoring capacity to prevent defection and desertion. This general framework allows a variety of interpretations of what type of proximity matters for building strong cohesive armies ranging from ethnic distance to geographic dispersion. Di§erent assumptions about the distribution of potential Öghters along the relevant dimension of conáict lead to di§erent equilibria. We characterize these, discuss the implied outcome in terms of who wins the war, and illustrate with historical and contemporaneous case studies.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Effect of viral load on the outcome of herpes zoster

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is a member of the Herpesviridae family, primary infection with which causes varicella, more commonly known as chicken pox. Characteristic of members of the alphaherpesvirus subfamily, VZV is neurotropic and establishes latency in sensory neurons. Reactivation of VZV causes herpes zoster, also known as shingles. The most frequent complication following zoster is chronic and often debilitating pain called postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), which can last for months after the disappearance of a rash. During episodes of acute zoster, VZV viremia occurs in some, but not all, patients; however, the effect of the viral load on the disease outcome is not known. Here we describe the development of a highly specific, sensitive, and reproducible real-time PCR assay to investigate the factors that may contribute to the presence and levels of baseline viremia in patients with zoster and to determine the relationship between viremia and the development and persistence of PHN. VZV DNA was detected in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 78% of patients with acute zoster and in 9% of healthy asymptomatic blood donors. The presence of VZV in the PBMCs of patients with acute zoster was independently associated with age and being on antivirals but not with gender, immune status, extent of rash, the age of the rash at the time of blood sampling, having a history of prodromal pain, or the extent of acute pain. Prodromal pain was significantly associated with higher baseline viral loads. Viral load levels were not associated with the development or persistence of PHN at 6, 12, or 26 weeks.

Intraspecific heritable variation in life-history traits can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores

Competition is one of the most important biotic factors determining the structure of ecological communities. In this study, we show that there is variation in competitive ability between two clones of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, both of which out-compete a clone of the vetch aphid, Megoura viciae, in the laboratory. We tested whether this variation in competitive ability would alter the outcome of interspecific competition in the field. White one pea aphid clone followed the pattern set in the laboratory, out-competing the Megoura viciae clone, another showed the reverse effect with Megoura viciae dominating. These differences appear to be the result of variation in early population growth rate between the pea aphid clones, rather than predation, although predation did lead to the eventual extinction of colonies. We also questioned whether intra- and interspecific differences in predator escape behaviour could affect the outcome of competition in the field. All three clones responded similarly to the presence of foraging hoverfly larvae (Episyrphus balteatus), but the Megoura viciae clone dropped from the plant significantly less often in response to the presence of a foraging two-spot ladybird (Adalia bipunctata). This work provides evidence that intraspecific variation in competitive ability can alter the outcome of interspecific competitive interactions in nature and suggests that species-specific behavioural. traits may have the potential to modify the outcome of these interactions. (c) 2005 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Assessment of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid status and clinical outcome in adults receiving home parenteral nutrition

Background & aims: Long term parenteral nutrition rarely supplies the long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). The aim of this study was to assess long chain n-3 PUFA status in patients receiving home parenteral. nutrition (HPN). Methods: Plasma phospholipid fatty acids were measured in 64 adult HPN patients and compared with 54 age, sex and BMI matched controls. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors related to plasma fatty acid fractions in the HPN patients, and to identify factors associated with the risk of clinical. complications. Results: Plasma phospholipid fractions of EPA, DPA and DHA were significantly tower in patients receiving HPN. Factors independently associated with tow fractions included high parenteral energy provision, tow parenteral lipid intake, tow BMI and prolonged duration of HPN. Long chain n-3 PUFA fractions were not associated with incidence of either central venous catheter associated infection or central venous thrombosis. However, the fraction of EPA were inversely associated with plasma alkaline phosphatase concentrations. Conclusions: This study demonstrates abnormal long chain n-3 PUFA profiles in patients receiving HPN. Reduced fatty acid intake may be partly responsible. Fatty acid metabolism may also be altered. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Treatment of child anxiety. an exploratory study of the role of maternal anxiety and behaviours in treatment outcome

Anxiety disorders are common among parents of anxious children and have been found to impede child treatment outcomes, yet it is unclear whether it is parental anxiety that needs to be targeted in therapy or associated parental behaviours. Twenty-two children (6-12 years) with a current anxiety disorder and their mothers received cognitive-behavioural treatment (CBT) for child anxiety. In addition, of the 12 mothers who met criteria for a current anxiety disorder, 6 received CBT for their own disorder. Assessments were made of the mother-child interaction. The main findings were: (1) children did less well from treatment where their mothers had a current anxiety disorder; (2) treatment of maternal anxiety disorder did not improve child treatment outcome; and (3) maternal overinvolvement and expression of fear was associated with child treatment outcome. The results suggest that in the context of maternal anxiety disorder, child treatment outcome may be improved by specifically targeting parenting behaviours. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of robot-mediated stroke therapy

Robot-mediated therapies offer a new approach to neurorehabilitation. This paper analyses the Fugl-Meyer data from the Gentle/S project and finds that the two intervention phases (sling suspension and robot mediated therapy) have approximately equal value to the further recovery of chronic stroke subjects (on average 27 months post stroke). Both sling suspension and robot mediated interventions show a recovery over baseline and further work is needed to establish the common factors in treatment, and to establish intervention protocols for each that will give individual subjects a maximum level of recovery.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.