Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Unpacking the perceived opportunity to misbehave: The influence of spatio-temporal and social dimensions on consumer misbehavior

Purpose This study aims to use opportunity as a theoretical lens to investigate how the spatio-temporal and social dimensions of the consumption environment create perceived opportunities for consumers to misbehave. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on routine activity theory and social impact theory, the authors use two experiments to demonstrate that spatio-temporal and social dimensions can explain consumer theft in retail settings. Findings Study 1 reveals mixed empirical support for the basic dimensions of routine activity theory, which posits that the opportunity to thieve is optimised when a motivated offender, suitable target and the absence of a capable formal guardian transpire in time and space. Extending the notion of guardianship, Study 2 tests social impact theory and shows that informal guardianship impacts the likelihood of theft under optimal routine activity conditions. Originality/value The study findings highlight important implications for academicians and retail managers: rather than focusing on the uncontrollable characteristics of thieving offenders, more controllable spatio-temporal and social factors of the retail environment can be actively monitored and manipulated to reduce perceived opportunities for consumer misbehaviour.

The extent of population genetic subdivision differs among four co-distributed shark species in the Indo-Australian archipelago

Background: The territorial fishing zones of Australia and Indonesia are contiguous to the north of Australia in the Timor and Arafura Seas and in the Indian Ocean to the north of Christmas Island. The area surrounding the shared boundary consists of a variety of bio-diverse marine habitats including shallow continental shelf waters, oceanic trenches and numerous offshore islands. Both countries exploit a variety of fisheries species, including whaler (Carcharhinus spp.) and hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna spp.). Despite their differences in social and financial arrangements, the two countries are motivated to develop complementary co-management practices to achieve resource sustainability. An essential starting point is knowledge of the degree of population subdivision, and hence fisheries stock status, in exploited species. Results: Populations of four commercially harvested shark species (Carcharhinus obscurus, Carcharhinus sorrah, Prionace glauca, Sphyrna lewini) were sampled from northern Australia and central Indonesia. Neutral genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA control region sequence and allelic variation at co-dominant microsatellite loci) revealed genetic subdivision between Australian and Indonesian populations of C. sorrah. Further research is needed to address the possibility of genetic subdivision among C. obscurus populations. There was no evidence of genetic subdivision for P. glauca and S. lewini populations, but the sampling represented a relatively small part of their distributional range. For these species, more detailed analyses of population genetic structure is recommended in the future. Conclusion: Cooperative management between Australia and Indonesia is the best option at present for P. glauca and S. lewini, while C. sorrah and C. obscurus should be managed independently. On-going research on these and other exploited shark and ray species is strongly recommended. Biological and ecological similarity between species may not be a predictor of population genetic structure, so species-specific studies are recommended to provide new data to assist with sustainable fisheries management.

GWAS of 126,559 individuals identifies genetic variants associated with educational attainment

A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment was conducted in a discovery sample of 101,069 individuals and a replication sample of 25,490. Three independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are genome-wide significant (rs9320913, rs11584700, rs4851266), and all three replicate. Estimated effects sizes are small (coefficient of determination R(2) approximately 0.02%), approximately 1 month of schooling per allele. A linear polygenic score from all measured SNPs accounts for approximately 2% of the variance in both educational attainment and cognitive function. Genes in the region of the loci have previously been associated with health, cognitive, and central nervous system phenotypes, and bioinformatics analyses suggest the involvement of the anterior caudate nucleus. These findings provide promising candidate SNPs for follow-up work, and our effect size estimates can anchor power analyses in social-science genetics.

No influence of 5-HTTLPR gene polymorphism on migraine symptomatology, comorbid depression, and chronification

BACKGROUND: The serotonergic system is thought to play an important role for mediating susceptibility to migraine and depression, which is frequently found comorbid in migraine. The functional polymorphism in the serotonin transporter gene linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR/SLC6A4) was previously associated with attack frequency and, thus, possibly with chronification. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that patients with the "s" allele have higher attack frequency and, paralleling results in depression research, higher scores of depression. METHODS: Genetic analysis of the SLC6A4 44 bp insertion/deletion polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) was performed in 293 patients with migraine with and without aura. Self-rating questionnaires were used for assessment of depression. RESULTS: Multinomial logistic regression analysis found no evidence for association of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism with either depression or migraine attack frequency. CONCLUSION: We were not able to demonstrate any influence of the serotonin transporter 5-HTTLPR polymorphism on migraine phenomenology (attack frequency or comorbid depression), thereby excluding this variant to be a common genetic denominator for chronic migraine and depression.

The shared genetics of migraine and anxious depression

OBJECTIVES To investigate: - (1) whether shared genetic factors influence migraine and anxious depression; - (2) whether the genetic architecture of migraine depends on anxious depression; - (3) whether the association between migraine and anxious depression is causal. BACKGROUND Migraine and anxious depression frequently occur together, but little is known about the mechanisms causing this association. METHODS A twin study was conducted to model the genetic architecture of migraine and anxious depression and the covariance between them. Anxious depression was also added to the model as a moderator variable to examine whether anxious depression affects the genetic architecture of migraine. Causal models were explored with the co-twin control method. RESULTS Modest but significant phenotypic (rP=0.28), genetic (rG=0.30), and nonshared environmental (rE=0.26) correlations were found between the 2 traits. Interestingly, the heritability of migraine depended on the level of anxious depression: the higher the anxious depression score, the lower the relative contribution of genetic factors to the individual differences in migraine susceptibility. The observed risk patterns in discordant twins are most consistent with a bidirectional causal relationship. CONCLUSIONS These findings confirm the genetic association between migraine and anxious depression and are consistent with a syndromic association between the 2 traits. This highlights the importance of taking comorbidity into account in genetic studies of migraine, especially in the context of selection for large-scale genotyping efforts. Genetic studies may be most effective when migraine with and without comorbid anxious depression are treated as separate phenotypes.

Identification of a novel nucleolin related protein (NRP) gene expressed during rat spermatogenesis

Nucleolin is a major nucleolar phosphoprotein involved in various steps of ribosome biogenesis in eukaryotic cells. As nucleolin plays a significant role in ribosomal RNA transcription we were interested in examining in detail the expression of nucleolin across different stages of spermatogenesis and correlate with the transcription status of ribosomal DNA in germ cells.

Shedding Light on the Microbial Community of the Macropod Foregut Using 454-Amplicon Pyrosequencing

Twenty macropods from five locations in Queensland, Australia, grazing on a variety of native pastures were surveyed and the bacterial community of the foregut was examined using 454-amplicon pyrosequencing. Specifically, the V3/V4 region of 16S rRNA gene was examined. A total of 5040 OTUs were identified in the data set (post filtering). Thirty-two OTUs were identified as 'shared' OTUS (i.e. present in all samples) belonging to either Firmicutes or Bacteroidetes (Clostridiales/Bacteroidales). These phyla predominated the general microbial community in all macropods. Genera represented within the shared OTUs included: unclassified Ruminococcaceae, unclassified Lachnospiraceae, unclassified Clostridiales, Peptococcus sp. Coprococcus spp., Streptococcus spp., Blautia sp., Ruminoccocus sp., Eubacterium sp., Dorea sp., Oscillospira sp. and Butyrivibrio sp. The composition of the bacterial community of the foregut samples of each the host species (Macropus rufus, Macropus giganteus and Macropus robustus) was significantly different allowing differentiation between the host species based on alpha and beta diversity measures. Specifically, eleven dominant OTUs that separated the three host species were identified and classified as: unclassified Ruminococcaceae, unclassified Bacteroidales, Prevotella spp. and a Syntrophococcus sucromutans. Putative reductive acetogens and fibrolytic bacteria were also identified in samples. Future work will investigate the presence and role of fibrolytics and acetogens in these ecosystems. Ideally, the isolation and characterization of these organisms will be used for enhanced feed efficiency in cattle, methane mitigation and potentially for other industries such as the biofuel industry.

Dosage consistency is the key factor in avoiding evolution of resistance to phosphine and population increase in stored-grain pests

BACKGROUND Control of pests in stored grain and the evolution of resistance to pesticides are serious problems worldwide. A stochastic individual-based two-locus model was used to investigate the impact of two important issues, the consistency of pesticide dosage through the storage facility and the immigration rate of the adult pest, on overall population control and avoidance of evolution of resistance to the fumigant phosphine in an important pest of stored grain, the lesser grain borer. RESULTS A very consistent dosage maintained good control for all immigration rates, while an inconsistent dosage failed to maintain control in all cases. At intermediate dosage consistency, immigration rate became a critical factor in whether control was maintained or resistance emerged. CONCLUSION Achieving a consistent fumigant dosage is a key factor in avoiding evolution of resistance to phosphine and maintaining control of populations of stored-grain pests; when the dosage achieved is very inconsistent, there is likely to be a problem regardless of immigration rate. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry

Strong resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae): its characterisation, a rapid assay for diagnosis and its distribution in Australia

BACKGROUND: The recent development of very high resistance to phosphine in rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), seriously threatens stored-grain biosecurity. The aim was to characterise this resistance, to develop a rapid bioassay for its diagnosis to support pest management and to document the distribution of resistance in Australia in 20072011. RESULTS: Bioassays of purified laboratory reference strains and field-collected samples revealed three phenotypes: susceptible, weakly resistant and strongly resistant. With resistance factors of > 1000 x , resistance to phosphine expressed by the strong resistance phenotype was higher than reported for any stored-product insect species. The new time-to-knockdown assay rapidly and accurately diagnosed each resistance phenotype within 6 h. Although less frequent in western Australia, weak resistance was detected throughout all grain production regions. Strong resistance occurred predominantly in central storages in eastern Australia. CONCLUSION: Resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle is expressed through two identifiable phenotypes: weak and strong. Strong resistance requires urgent changes to current fumigation dosages. The development of a rapid assay for diagnosis of resistance enables the provision of same-day advice to expedite resistance management decisions. (c) 2012 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is endemic stability of tick-borne disease in cattle a useful concept?

Endemic stability is a widely used term in the epidemiology of ticks and tick-borne diseases. It is generally accepted to refer to a state of a host tick pathogen interaction in which there is a high level of challenge of calves by infected ticks, absence of clinical disease in calves despite infection, and a high level of immunity in adult cattle with consequent low incidence of clinical disease. Although endemic stability is a valid epidemiological concept, the modelling studies that underpinned subsequent studies on the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases were specific to a single host tick pathogen system, and values derived from these models should not be applied in other regions or host tick pathogen systems.

Physical activity and health related quality of life

Background Research on the relationship between Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and physical activity (PA), to date, have rarely investigated how this relationship differ across objective and subjective measures of PA. The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between HRQoL and PA, and examine how this relationship differs across objective and subjective measures of PA, within the context of a large representative national survey from England. Methods Using a sample of 5,537 adults (40–60 years) from a representative national survey in England (Health Survey for England 2008), Tobit regressions with upper censoring was employed to model the association between HRQoL and objective, and subjective measures of PA controlling for potential confounders. We tested the robustness of this relationship across specific types of PA. HRQoL was assessed using the summary measure of health state utility value derived from the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) whilst PA was assessed via subjective measure (questionnaire) and objective measure (accelerometer- actigraph model GT1M). The actigraph was worn (at the waist) for 7 days (during waking hours) by a randomly selected sub-sample of the HSE 2008 respondents (4,507 adults – 16 plus years), with a valid day constituting 10 hours. Analysis was conducted in 2010. Results Findings suggest that higher levels of PA are associated with better HRQoL (regression coefficient: 0.026 to 0.072). This relationship is consistent across different measures and types of PA although differences in the magnitude of HRQoL benefit associated with objective and subjective (regression coefficient: 0.047) measures of PA are noticeable, with the former measure being associated with a relatively better HRQoL (regression coefficient: 0.072). Conclusion Higher levels of PA are associated with better HRQoL. Using an objective measure of PA compared with subjective shows a relatively better HRQoL.