Export commodity price projections: a study of autoregressive-moving average projections methods: preliminary version

Includes bibliography

Transport, the poor and moving towards low-carbon societies

This FAL Bulletin discusses the challenges involved in creating equality in urban mobility and the need to reach towards a social sustainability framework, as existing policies often accentuate current inequities and inequalities in accessibility. Lack of access to mobility has wide-ranging effects across social groups, gender and particularly the urban poor.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

Report of the planning meeting of partners of the Caribbean Information Societies Measurement Initiative

The Planning Meeting of Partners was organized jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, the Observatory for the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean (OSILAC - an ECLAC project supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the University of West Indies (UWI), St. Augustine Campus and the Telecommunications Policy and Management Programme, Mona School of Business at UWI, Jamaica. The Caribbean Information Societies Measurement Initiative (CISMI) is a component of the research proposal entitled “Networks for Development: The Caribbean ICT Research Programme”, recently submitted to IDRC for funding approval. The main objective of this programme is to “promote multi-stakeholder knowledge exchange and dialogue about the potential contribution of Information and Communications Technology for economic development and poverty alleviation in the Caribbean” The proposed budget for the CISMI component within the aforementioned proposal is US$ 150,000. The main objectives of the CISMI component are twofold: (a) to conduct a comprehensive Information and Communications Technology (ICT) survey in the Caribbean subregion to cover baseline information needs for studies and analysis from different partners involved in the construction of the Caribbean Information Societies; and (b) to analyze the household-level data, including the status of broadband and mobile usage in selected Caribbean countries in order to promote evidence-based policy planning and implementation with respect to ICT development and its impact on social and economic development in the subregion. The Planning Meeting of Partners was convened to: (a) discuss the CISMI component partnership arrangements, (b) discuss the design and implementation mechanisms of the survey instrument (questionnaire); (c) inform and engage potential key stakeholders; and (d) obtain information from potential service providers (survey companies). The Planning Meeting of Partners took place on 28 and 29 September 2009 in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

The carbon footprint of ECLAC subregional headquarters for the Caribbean: Moving towards a climate neutral strategy

.--I. Introduction.--II. Methodology for estimating greenhouse gas emissions.--III. The carbon footprint of ECLAC- Port-of-Spain.--IV. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: next steps

Saint Lucia: survey of living conditions and household budgets 2005/2006. User's manual.

This manual contains information on the dataset compiled from the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). It is sectioned out into two main parts- section one provides brief description of the survey and section two contains a concise data dictionary of variables generated from the survey as well as additional variables created by ECLAC. In addition, for ease of reference, an index of all variables in the database is included at the end of the document.

Questionnaire and survey methodology. Saint Lucia: Survey of living condition and household budgets 2005/2006

This manual documents some of the material related to the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. The main objectives of this survey were (i) to collect information from households on their expenditure patterns, income and other characteristics and; (ii) to revise the 'average shopping basket' used in constructing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the country, and the relative weights of the items in the basket. The survey also provided valuable data for an assessment of the impact of socio-economic policies on the living conditions of the resident population in Saint Lucia. Further, data on households gathered in the survey also provide valuable inputs for the compilation of the country's National Accounts statistics relating to the household sector. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). The main components of this manual include survey methodology and the questionnaires used for data collection. The latter are included in the annex at the end of the document. All information contained therein was provided by the Statistics Department in Saint Lucia. The ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean is pleased to acknowledge the Saint Lucia Statistics Department for graciously consenting to the use of their surveys and metadata under the project Improving Caribbean Household Surveys. Due recognition must also be given to the Statistics and Economics Projection Division at ECLAC (Santiago) who provided guidance in the standardization of the datasets and the creation of the Caribbean Household Surveys Databank.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema moving cameras para reconstrução 3D de movimentos submersos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)