Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Seismic scattering and absorption mapping of debris flows, feeding paths, and tectonic units at Mount St. Helens volcano

Acknowledgments We thank Edoardo Del Pezzo, Ludovic Margerin, Haruo Sato, Mare Yamamoto, Tatsuhiko Saito, Malcolm Hole, and Seth Moran for the valuable suggestions regarding the methodology and interpretation. Greg Waite provided the P wave velocity model of MSH. An important revision of the methods was done after two blind reviews performed before submission. The suggestions of two anonymous reviewers greatly enhanced our ability of imaging structures, interpreting our results, and testing their reliability. The facilities of the IRIS Data Management System, and specifically the IRIS Data Management Center, were used for access to waveform and metadata required in this study, and provided by the Cascades Volcano Observatory – USGS. Interaction with geologists and geographers part of the Landscape Dynamics Theme of the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society (SAGES) has been important for the interpretation of the results.

Argument structure and specific language impairment: retrospect and prospect

This article reflects a collaboration between the Universities of Groningen and Reading of which Frans Zwarts was the promoter. One of the outcomes was a close attention to the learning of various aspects of argument structure by children with specific language impairment (SLI) in Dutch and English. At that time and since, the focus on deficits in grammatical morphology in these children has left verb complementation as something of a syntactic Cinderella. Here we review the findings from our studies in the 1990s. We confirm that children with SLI in both languages have problems with verb specificity, with argument structure alternations and with resultative verb predicates. The very limited number of subsequent studies on verb syntax appear to support our findings. We conclude that this is an area which will repay further scrutiny – it is high time argument structure received an invitation to the ball.

Mount Carmel in the Commune: Promoting the Holy Land in Central Italy in the 13th and 14th Centuries

The Carmelite friars were the last of the major mendicant orders to be established in Italy. Originally an eremitical order, they arrived from the Holy Land in the 1240s, decades after other mendicant orders, such as the Franciscans and Dominicans, had constructed churches and cultivated patrons in the burgeoning urban centers of central Italy. In a religious market already saturated with friars, the Carmelites distinguished themselves by promoting their Holy Land provenance, eremitical values, and by developing an institutional history claiming to be descendants of the Old Testament prophet Elijah. By the end of the 13th century the order had constructed thriving churches and convents and leveraged itself into a prominent position in the religious community. My dissertation analyzes these early Carmelite churches and convents, as well as the friars’ interactions with patrons, civic governments, and the urban space they occupied. Through three primary case studies – the churches and convents of Pisa, Siena and Florence – I examine the Carmelites’ approach to art, architecture, and urban space as the order transformed its mission from one of solitary prayer to one of active ministry.

My central questions are these: To what degree did the Carmelites’ Holy Land provenance inform the art and architecture they created for their central Italian churches? And to what degree was their visual culture instead a reflection of the mendicant norms of the time?

I have sought to analyze the Carmelites at the institutional level, to determine how the order viewed itself and how it wanted its legacy to develop. I then seek to determine how and if the institutional model was utilized in the artistic and architectural production of the individual convents. The understanding of Carmelite art as a promotional tool for the identity of the order is not a new one, however my work is the first to consider deeply the order’s architectural aspirations. I also consider the order’s relationships with its de facto founding saint, the prophet Elijah, and its patron, the Virgin Mary, in a more comprehensive manner that situates the resultant visual culture into the contemporary theological and historical contexts.

Field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses to assess lava flow hazards at Mount Etna

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

Photographs of the Mount Meager, southwestern British Columbia

On August 6, 2010, a large (~50 Mm**3) debris avalanche occurred on the flank of Mount Meager in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. We studied the deposits to infer the morphodynamics of the landslide from initiation to emplacement. Structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry, based on oblique photos taken with a standard SLR camera during a low helicopter traverse, was used to create high-resolution orthophotos and base maps. Interpretation of the images and maps allowed us to recognize two main rheological phases in the debris avalanche. Just below the source area, in the valley of Capricorn Creek, the landslide separated into two phases, one water-rich and more mobile, and the other water-poor and less mobile. The water-rich phase spread quickly, achieved high superelevation on the valley sides, and left distal scattered deposits. The main water-poor phase moved more slowly, did not superelevate, and formed a thick continuous deposit (up to ~30 m) on the valley floor. The water-poor flow deposit has structural features such as hummocks, brittle-ductile faults, and shear zones. Our study, based on a freshly emplaced deposit, advances understanding of large mass movements by showing that a single landslide can develop multiple rheology phases with different behaviours. Rheological evolution and separation of phases should always be taken into account to provide better risk assessment scenarios.

Analysis of Evidence from Core Sample Fractures in Stewardson Lake Uranium Prospect

This study was performed to characterize evidence of potential unconformity-type U mineralizing fluids in drill core fractures from the Stewardson Lake prospect, in the Athabasca Basin, located in Northern Saskatchewan and Alberta, Canada. Fractures were visually classified into eight varieties. This classification scheme was improved with the use of mineralogical characterization through SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) and XRD analyses of the fracture fills and resulted in the identification of various oxides, hydroxides, sulfides, and clays or clay-sized minerals. Fractures were tallied to a total of ten categories with some commonalities in color. The oxidative, reductive or mixed nature of the fluids interacting with each fracture was determined based on its fill mineralogy. The measured Pb isotopic signature of samples was used to distinguish fractures affected solely by fluids emanating from a U mineralization source, from those affected by mixed fluids. Anomalies in U and U-pathfinder elements detected in fractures assisted with attributing them to the secondary dispersion halo of potential mineralization. Three types of fracture functions (chimney, composite and drain) were defined based on their interpreted flow vector and history. A secondary dispersion halo boundary with a zone of dominance of infiltrating fluids was suggested for two boreholes. The control of fill mineralogy on fracture color was investigated and the indicative and non-indicative colors and minerals, with respect to a secondary dispersion halo, were formally described. The fracture colors and fills indicative of proximity to the basement host of the potential mineralization were also identified. In addition, three zones of interest were delineated in the boreholes with respect to their geochemical dynamics and their relationship to the potential mineralization: a shallow barren overburden zone, a dispersion and alteration zone at intermediate depth, and a second deeper zone of dispersion and alteration.

The relationship between vegetation and modern pollen assemblages on Mount Paggeo (NE Greece)

In this study, we investigated the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain along the elevational gradient of Mount Paggeo. We apply multivariate data analysis to assess the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain and quantify the representativeness of forest zones. This study represents the first statistical analysis of pollen-vegetation relationship along an elevational gradient in Greece. Hence, this paper improves confidence in interpretation of palynological records from north-eastern Greece and may refine past climate reconstructions for a more accurate comparison of data and modelling. Numerical classification and ordination were performed on pollen data to assess differences among plant communities that beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates or co-dominates. The results show a strong relationship between altitude, arboreal cover, human impact and variations in pollen and nonpollen palynomorph taxa percentages.

A Microbial Link to Weathering of Postglacial Rocks and Sediments, Mount Viso Area, Western Alps, Demonstrated through Analysis of a Soil/Paleosol Bio/Chronosequence

Understanding the mechanism associated with rates of weathering and evolution of rocks→sediment→soil→paleosol in alpine environments raises questions related to the impact of microbial mediation versus various diverse abiotic chemical/physical processes, even including the overall effect of cosmic impact/airburst during the early stage of weathering in Late Glacial (LG) deposits. This study is of a chronosequence of soils/paleosols, with an age range that spans the post–Little Ice Age (post-LIA; <150 yr), the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1500–1850), the middle Neoglacial (∼3 ka)–Younger Dryas (YD; <12.8 ka), and the LG (<15 ka). The goal is to elicit trends in weathering, soil morphogenesis, and related eubacterial population changes over the past 13–15 k.yr. The older LG/YD paleosols in the sequence represent soil morphogenesis that started during the closing stage of Pleistocene glaciation. These are compared with undated soils of midto late Neoglacial age, the youngest of LIA and post-LIA age. All profiles formed in a uniform parentmaterial ofmetabasalt composition and in moraine, rockfall, protalus, and alluvial fan deposits. Elsewhere in Europe,North America, and Asia, the cosmic impact/airburst event at 12.8 ka often produced a distinctive, carbon-rich “black mat” layer that shows evidence of high-temperature melting. At this alpine site, older profiles of similar LG age contain scorched and melted surface sediments that are otherwise similar in composition to the youngest/thinnest profiles developing in the catchment today. Moreover, microbial analysis of the sediments offers new insight into the genesis of these sediments: the C and Cu (u = unweathered) horizons in LG profiles present at 12.8 ka (now Ah/Bw) show bacterial population structures that differ markedly from recent alluvial/protalus sample bacterial populations. We propose here that these differences are, in part, a direct consequence of the age/cosmic impact/weathering processes that have occurred in the chronosequence. Of the several questions that emerge from these sequences, perhaps the most important involve the interaction of biotic-mineral factors, which need to be understood if we are to generally fully appreciate the role played by microbes in rock weathering.

Agreed-upon procedures report on the City of Mount Ayr, Iowa for the period July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2015

Agreed-upon procedures report on the City of Mount Ayr, Iowa for the period July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2015

Prospect Training Services case study

Case study on recording auditable evidence of achievement using iObserve™