An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating Local Part Thickness in Midplane Meshes for Finite Element Analysis

Within the development of motor vehicles, crash safety (e.g. occupant protection, pedestrian protection, low speed damageability), is one of the most important attributes. In order to be able to fulfill the increased requirements in the framework of shorter cycle times and rising pressure to reduce costs, car manufacturers keep intensifying the use of virtual development tools such as those in the domain of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE). For crash simulations, the explicit finite element method (FEM) is applied. The accuracy of the simulation process is highly dependent on the accuracy of the simulation model, including the midplane mesh. One of the roughest approximations typically made is the actual part thickness which, in reality, can vary locally. However, almost always a constant thickness value is defined throughout the entire part due to complexity reasons. On the other hand, for precise fracture analysis within FEM, the correct thickness consideration is one key enabler. Thus, availability of per element thickness information, which does not exist explicitly in the FEM model, can significantly contribute to an improved crash simulation quality, especially regarding fracture prediction. Even though the thickness is not explicitly available from the FEM model, it can be inferred from the original CAD geometric model through geometric calculations. This paper proposes and compares two thickness estimation algorithms based on ray tracing and nearest neighbour 3D range searches. A systematic quantitative analysis of the accuracy of both algorithms is presented, as well as a thorough identification of particular geometric arrangements under which their accuracy can be compared. These results enable the identification of each technique’s weaknesses and hint towards a new, integrated, approach to the problem that linearly combines the estimates produced by each algorithm.

Size distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a roadway tunnel in Lisbon, Portugal

Atmospheric aerosols of four aerodynamic size ranges were collected using high volume cascade impactors in an extremely busy roadway tunnel in Lisbon (Portugal). Dust deposited on the tunnel walls and guardrails was also collected. Average particle mass concentrations in the tunnel atmosphere were more than 30 times higher than in the outside urban background air, revealing its origins almost exclusively from fresh vehicle emissions. Most of the aerosol mass was concentrated in submicrometer fractions (65%), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were even more concentrated in the finer particles with an average of 84% of total PAH present in sizes smaller than 0.49 mu m. The most abundant PAH were methylated phenanthrenes, fluoranthene and pyrene. About 46% of the total PAH mass was attributed to lower molecular weight compounds (two and three rings), suggesting a strong influence of diesel vehicle emissions on the production of local particulate PAH. The application of diagnostic ratios confirmed the relevance of this source of PAH in the tunnel ambient air. Deposited dust presented PAH profiles similar to the coarser aerosol size range, in agreement with the predominant origin of coarser aerosol particles from soil dust resuspension and vehicle wear products. (c) 201 1 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size-segregated chemical composition of aerosol emissions in an urban road tunnel in Portugal

An atmospheric aerosol study was performed in 2008 inside an urban road tunnel, in Lisbon, Portugal. Using a high volume impactor, the aerosol was collected into four size fractions (PM0.5, PM0.5-1, PM1-2.5 and PM2.5-10) and analysed for particle mass (PM), organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), soluble inorganic ions and elemental composition. Three main groups of compounds were discriminated in the tunnel aerosol: carbonaceous, soil component and vehicle mechanical wear. Measurements indicate that Cu can be a good tracer for wear emissions of road traffic. Cu levels correlate strongly with Fe, Mn, Sn and Cr, showing a highly linear constant ratio in all size ranges, suggesting a unique origin through sizes. Ratios of Cu with other elements can be used to source apportion the trace elements present in urban atmospheres, mainly on what concerns coarse aerosol particles. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O impacte do endividamento nas empresas portuguesas

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Evaluation of atmospheric deposition and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in façades of historic monuments of Oporto (Portugal)

Atmospheric pollution by motor vehicles is considered a relevant source of damage to architectural heritage. Thus the aim of this work was to assess the atmospheric depositions and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in façades of historical monuments. Eighteen PAHs (16 PAHs considered by US EPA as priority pollutants, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene and benzo[j]fluoranthene) were determined in thin black layers collected from façades of two historical monuments: Hospital Santo António and Lapa Church (Oporto, Portugal). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used for morphological and elemental characterisation of thin black layers; PAHs were quantified by microwave-assisted extraction combined with liquid chromatography (MAE-LC). The thickness of thin black layers were 80–110 μm and they contained significant levels of iron, sulfur, calcium and phosphorus. Total concentrations of 18 PAHs ranged from 7.74 to 147.92 ng/g (mean of 45.52 ng/g) in thin black layers of Hospital Santo António, giving a range three times lower than at Lapa Church (5.44– 429.26 ng/g; mean of 110.25 ng/g); four to six rings compounds accounted at both monuments approximately for 80–85% of ΣPAHs. The diagnostic ratios showed that traffic emissions were significant source of PAHs in thin black layers. Composition profiles of PAHs in thin black layers of both monuments were similar to those of ambient air, thus showing that air pollution has a significant impact on the conditions and stone decay of historical building façades. The obtained results confirm that historical monuments in urban areas act as passive repositories for air pollutants present in the surrounding atmosphere.

Attention performance among Brazilian truck drivers and its association with amphetamine use: pilot study

The aim of this article was to describe the attention functioning of twenty-two truck drivers and its relationship with amphetamine use. Those drivers who reported using amphetamines in the twelve months previous to the interview had the best performance in a test evaluating sustained attention functioning. Although amphetamine use may initially seem advantageous to the drivers, it may actually impair safe driving. The findings suggest the importance of monitoring the laws regarding amphetamine use in this country.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: levels and phase distributions in preschool microenvironment

This work aims to characterize levels and phase distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in indoor air of preschool environment and to assess the impact of outdoor PAH emissions to indoor environment. Gaseous and particulate (PM1 and PM2.5) PAHs (16 USEPA priority pollutants, plus dibenzo[a,l]pyrene, and benzo[j]fluoranthene) were concurrently sampled indoors and outdoors in one urban preschool located in north of Portugal for 35 days. The total concentration of 18 PAHs (ΣPAHs) in indoor air ranged from 19.5 to 82.0 ng/m3; gaseous compounds (range of 14.1–66.1 ng/m3) accounted for 85% ΣPAHs. Particulate PAHs (range 0.7–15.9 ng/m3) were predominantly associated with PM1 (76% particulate ΣPAHs) with 5-ring PAHs being the most abundant. Mean indoor/outdoor ratios (I/O) of individual PAHs indicated that outdoor emissions significantly contributed to PAH indoors; emissions from motor vehicles and fuel burning were the major sources.

Imparidades em inventários

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Doutora Albertina Paula Monteiro Esta versão contém as críticas e sugestões dos elementos do júri.

Secondary effects of catalytic diesel particulate filters: copper-induced formation of PCDD/Fs.

Potential risks of a secondary formation of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) were assessed for two cordierite-based, wall-through diesel particulate filters (DPFs) for which soot combustion was either catalyzed with an iron- or a copper-based fuel additive. A heavy duty diesel engine was used as test platform, applying the eight-stage ISO 8178/4 C1 cycle. DPF applications neither affected the engine performance, nor did they increase NO, NO2, CO, and CO2 emissions. The latter is a metric for fuel consumption. THC emissions decreased by about 40% when deploying DPFs. PCDD/F emissions, with a focus on tetra- to octachlorinated congeners, were compared under standard and worst case conditions (enhanced chlorine uptake). The iron-catalyzed DPF neither increased PCDD/F emissions, nor did it change the congener pattern, even when traces of chlorine became available. In case of copper, PCDD/F emissions increased by up to 3 orders of magnitude from 22 to 200 to 12 700 pg I-TEQ/L with fuels of < 2, 14, and 110 microg/g chlorine, respectively. Mainly lower chlorinated DD/Fs were formed. Based on these substantial effects on PCDD/F emissions, the copper-catalyzed DPF system was not approved for workplace applications, whereas the iron system fulfilled all the specifications of the Swiss procedures for DPF approval (VERT).

Economic structure and key sectors analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in Uruguay

This paper identifies the key sectors in greenhouse gas emissions of the Uruguayan economy through input-output analysis. This allows to precisely determine the role played by the different productive sectors and their relationship with other sectors in the relation between the Uruguayan productive structure and atmospheric pollution. In order to guide policy design for GHG reduction, we decompose sectors liability between the pollution generated through their own production processes and the pollution indirectly generated in the production processes of other sectors. The results show that all the key polluting sectors for the different contaminants considered are relevant because of their own emissions, except for the sector Motor vehicles and oil retail trade, which is relevant in CO2 emissions because of its pure, both backward and forward, linkages. Finally, the best policy channels for controlling and reducing GHGs emissions are identified, and compared with the National Climate Change Response Plan (NCCRP) lines of action.

Iowa Drivers Manual

The rules and regulations for operating a motered vechicle in Iowa

Iowa Motorcycle Operator's Manual, 2002

The rules and regualtions for owning and operating a motorcycle in Iowa

Local Jurisdictions Information, 2003

Directory of county officials and employees

Connections, Winter 2001-2002

Newsletter for Iowa Department of Transportation, Office of Public Transit