Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Congenital heart defects in Europe: prevalence and perinatal mortality, 2000 to 2005.

BACKGROUND: This study determines the prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects (CHD), diagnosed prenatally or in infancy, and fetal and perinatal mortality associated with CHD in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were extracted from the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies central database for 29 population-based congenital anomaly registries in 16 European countries covering 3.3 million births during the period 2000 to 2005. CHD cases (n=26 598) comprised live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). The average total prevalence of CHD was 8.0 per 1000 births, and live birth prevalence was 7.2 per 1000 births, varying between countries. The total prevalence of nonchromosomal CHD was 7.0 per 1000 births, of which 3.6% were perinatal deaths, 20% prenatally diagnosed, and 5.6% TOPFA. Severe nonchromosomal CHD (ie, excluding ventricular septal defects, atrial septal defects, and pulmonary valve stenosis) occurred in 2.0 per 1000 births, of which 8.1% were perinatal deaths, 40% were prenatally diagnosed, and 14% were TOPFA (TOPFA range between countries 0% to 32%). Live-born CHD associated with Down syndrome occurred in 0.5 per 1000 births, with > 4-fold variation between countries. CONCLUSION: Annually in the European Union, we estimate 36 000 children are live born with CHD and 3000 who are diagnosed with CHD die as a TOFPA, late fetal death, or early neonatal death. Investing in primary prevention and pathogenetic research is essential to reduce this burden, as well as continuing to improve cardiac services from in utero to adulthood.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing primary PCI. The purpose of this analysis was not to decide which patients should undergo PCI, but to predict clinical outcomes in this population. METHODS: The SXscore was determined in a consecutive series of 114 elderly patients (mean age, 79.6 ± 4.1 years) undergoing primary PCI for ACS. Outcomes were stratified according to SXscore tertiles: SXLOW ≤15 (n = 39), 15< SXMID <23 (n = 40), and SXHIGH ≥23 (n = 35). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Secondary endpoints were nonfatal major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days, and 1-year outcomes in patients discharged alive. RESULTS: Mortality at 30 days was higher in the SXHIGH group compared with the aggregate SXLOW+MID group (37.1% vs 5.1%; P<.0001), and in the CSSHIGH group compared with the aggregate CSSLOW+MID group (25.5% vs 1.4%; P=.0001). MACCE rates at 30 days were similar among SXscore tertiles. The CSS predicted 1-year MACCE rates (12.1% for CSSHIGH vs 3.1% for CSSLOW+MID; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore predicts 30-day mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing primary PCI. In patients discharged alive, the CSS predicts risk of MACCE at 1 year.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Trends in hospital discharges, management and in-hospital mortality from acute myocardial infarction in Switzerland between 1998 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Since the late nineties, no study has assessed the trends in management and in-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Switzerland. Our objective was to fill this gap. METHODS: Swiss hospital discharge database for years 1998 to 2008. AMI was defined as a primary discharge diagnosis code I21 according to the ICD10 classification. Invasive treatments and overall in-hospital mortality were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 102,729 hospital discharges with a diagnosis of AMI were analyzed. The percentage of hospitalizations with a stay in an Intensive Care Unit decreased from 38.0% in 1998 to 36.2% in 2008 (p for trend < 0.001). Percutaneous revascularizations increased from 6.0% to 39.9% (p for trend < 0.001). Bare stents rose from 1.3% to 16.6% (p for trend < 0.001). Drug eluting stents appeared in 2004 and increased to 23.5% in 2008 (p for trend < 0.001). Coronary artery bypass graft increased from 1.0% to 3.0% (p for trend < 0.001). Circulatory assistance increased from 0.2% to 1.7% (p for trend < 0.001). Among patients managed in a single hospital (not transferred), seven-day and total in-hospital mortality decreased from 8.0% to 7.0% (p for trend < 0.01) and from 11.2% to 10.1%, respectively. These changes were no longer significant after multivariate adjustment for age, gender, region, revascularization procedures and transfer type. After multivariate adjustment, differing trends in revascularization procedures and in in-hospital mortality were found according to the geographical region considered. CONCLUSION: In Switzerland, a steep rise in hospital discharges and in revascularization procedures for AMI occurred between 1998 and 2008. The increase in revascularization procedures could explain the decrease in in-hospital mortality rates.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Pancreatic stone protein as an early biomarker predicting mortality in a prospective cohort of patients with sepsis requiring ICU management.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein [CRP] and procalcitonin [PCT], are insufficiently sensitive or specific to stratify patients with sepsis. We investigate the prognostic value of pancreatic stone protein/regenerating protein (PSP/reg) concentration in patients with severe infections. METHODS: PSP/reg, CRP, PCT, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin 1 beta (IL1-β), IL-6 and IL-8 were prospectively measured in cohort of patients ≥ 18 years of age with severe sepsis or septic shock within 24 hours of admission in a medico-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a community and referral university hospital, and the ability to predict in-hospital mortality was determined. RESULTS: We evaluated 107 patients, 33 with severe sepsis and 74 with septic shock, with in-hospital mortality rates of 6% (2/33) and 25% (17/74), respectively. Plasma concentrations of PSP/reg (343.5 vs. 73.5 ng/ml, P < 0.001), PCT (39.3 vs. 12.0 ng/ml, P < 0.001), IL-8 (682 vs. 184 ng/ml, P < 0.001) and IL-6 (1955 vs. 544 pg/ml, P < 0.01) were significantly higher in patients with septic shock than with severe sepsis. Of note, median PSP/reg was 13.0 ng/ml (IQR: 4.8) in 20 severely burned patients without infection. The area under the ROC curve for PSP/reg (0.65 [95% CI: 0.51 to 0.80]) was higher than for CRP (0.44 [0.29 to 0.60]), PCT 0.46 [0.29 to 0.61]), IL-8 (0.61 [0.43 to 0.77]) or IL-6 (0.59 [0.44 to 0.75]) in predicting in-hospital mortality. In patients with septic shock, PSP/reg was the only biomarker associated with in-hospital mortality (P = 0.049). Risk of mortality increased continuously for each ascending quartile of PSP/reg. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of PSP/reg concentration within 24 hours of ICU admission may predict in-hospital mortality in patients with septic shock, identifying patients who may benefit most from tailored ICU management.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia : a European population-based study of epidemiology, prenatal diagnosis and mortality

Aim: To study the epidemiology and the impact of prenatal diagnosis on mortality and morbidity in infants with isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods: Cases were identified in eight population-based registries of congenital malformations (Eurocat) in Europe. Results: A total of 183 live births were included in the study. Sixty per cent died and 67% of all deaths were during the first day of life. CDH was diagnosed prenatally in 39% of cases. Both mortality and morbidity were significantly higher for infants diagnosed prenatally compared to those diagnosed postnatally. The Apgar score was a very sensitive indicator for survival. Gestational age at birth was significantly lower for infants diagnosed prenatally compared to those diagnosed postnatally (37.6 weeks vs. 38.8 weeks, p < 0.01). At the end of follow-up, half of the survivors were leading a normal life. The most frequently reported health problems were respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms. Conclusions: In this population-based study, mortality for infants with CDH was high (60%) and early prenatal diagnosis was a risk factor for survival. Intervention at the time of birth seems too late for the majority of newborn infants with CDH.

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status, and mortality: further analyses of the British Whitehall II and the French GAZEL prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND: Differences in morbidity and mortality between socioeconomic groups constitute one of the most consistent findings of epidemiologic research. However, research on social inequalities in health has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this association. In recent analysis, we showed health behaviours, assessed longitudinally over the follow-up, to explain a major proportion of the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality in the British Whitehall II study. However, whether health behaviours are equally important mediators of the SES-mortality association in different cultural settings remains unknown. In the present paper, we examine this issue in Whitehall II and another prospective European cohort, the French GAZEL study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included 9,771 participants from the Whitehall II study and 17,760 from the GAZEL study. Over the follow-up (mean 19.5 y in Whitehall II and 16.5 y in GAZEL), health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity), were assessed longitudinally. Occupation (in the main analysis), education, and income (supplementary analysis) were the markers of SES. The socioeconomic gradient in smoking was greater (p<0.001) in Whitehall II (odds ratio [OR] = 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11-4.36) than in GAZEL (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18-1.49); this was also true for unhealthy diet (OR = 7.42, 95% CI 5.19-10.60 in Whitehall II and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.49 in GAZEL, p<0.001). Socioeconomic differences in mortality were similar in the two cohorts, a hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% CI 1.28-2.05) in Whitehall II and 1.94 in GAZEL (95% CI 1.58-2.39) for lowest versus highest occupational position. Health behaviours attenuated the association of SES with mortality by 75% (95% CI 44%-149%) in Whitehall II but only by 19% (95% CI 13%-29%) in GAZEL. Analysis using education and income yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Health behaviours were strong predictors of mortality in both cohorts but their association with SES was remarkably different. Thus, health behaviours are likely to be major contributors of socioeconomic differences in health only in contexts with a marked social characterisation of health behaviours. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates.

Trends in smoking and lung cancer mortality in Switzerland.

Patterns of cigarette smoking in Switzerland were analyzed on the basis of sales data (available since 1924) and national health surveys conducted in the last decade. There was a steady and substantial increase in cigarettes sales up to the early 1970s. Thereafter, the curve tended to level off around an average value of 3,000 cigarettes per adult per year. According to the 1981-1983 National Health Survey, 37% of Swiss men were current smokers, 25% were ex-smokers, and 39% were never smokers. Corresponding porportions in women were 22, 11, and 67%. Among men, smoking prevalence was higher in lower social classes, and some moderate decline was apparent from survey data over the period 1975-1981 mostly in later middle-age. Trends in lung cancer death certification rates over the period 1950-1984 were analyzed using standard cross-sectional methods and a log-linear Poisson model to isolate the effects of age, birth cohort, and year of death. Mortality from lung cancer increased substantially among Swiss men between the early 1950s and the late 1970s, and levelled off (around a value of 70/100,000 men) thereafter. Among women, there has been a steady upward trend which started in the mid-1960s, and continues to climb steadily, although lung cancer mortality is still considerably lower in absolute terms (around 8/100,000 women) than in several North European countries or in North America. Cohort analyses indicate that the peak rates in men were reached by the generation born around 1910 and mortality stabilized for subsequent generations up to the 1930 birth cohort. Among females, marked increases were observed in each subsequent birth cohort. This pattern of trends is consistent with available information on smoking prevalence in successive generations, showing a peak among men for the 1910 cohort, but steady upward trends among females. Over the period 1980-1984, about 90% of lung cancer deaths among Swiss men and about 40% of those among women could be attributed to smoking (overall proportion, 85%).

Exploring the conditions for a mortality crisis: bringing context back into the debate

This study engages with the debate over the mortality crises in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe by 1) considering at length and as complementary to each other the two most prominent explanations for the post-communist mortality crisis, stress and alcohol consumption; 2) emphasizing the importance of context by exploiting systematic similarities and differences across the region. Differential mortality trajectories reveal three country groups that cluster both spatially and in terms of economic transition experiences. The first group are the countries furthest west in which mortality rates increased minimally after the transition began. The second group experienced a severe increase in mortality rates in the early 1990s, but recovered previous levels within a few years. These countries are located peripherally to Russia and its nearest neighbours. The final group consists of countries that experienced two mortality increases or in which mortality levels had not recovered to pre-transition levels well into the 21st century. Cross-sectional time-series data analyses of men’s and women’s age and cause-specific death rates reveal that the clustering of these countries and their mortality trajectories can be partially explained by the economic context, which is argued to be linked to stress and alcohol consumption. Above and beyond many basic differences in the country groups that are held constant—including geographically and historically shared cultural, lifestyle and social characteristics—poor economic conditions account for a remarkably consistent share of excess age-specific and cause-specific deaths.

Variation de la mortalité périnatale selon l'heure de naissance en Suisse. [Variations in perinatal mortality according to the hour of birth in Switzerland].

In Switzerland like in most developed countries, the number of births is strongly related to the hour of the day and the day of the week: this pattern is very probably related to the current practice in obstetrics. Less expected is the fact that the perinatal mortality shows a striking circadian rhythm according to the hour of birth. The paper presents this pattern and comments some related issues.