907 resultados para Models and Methods


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This paper reviews peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, its development in the UK and other countries, and assesses the business and economic policy issues surrounding this new form of intermediation. P2P platform technology allows direct matching of borrowers’ and lenders’ diversification over a large number of borrowers without the loans having to be held on an intermediary balance sheet. P2P lending has developed rapidly in both the US and the UK, but it still represents a small fraction, less than 1%, of the stock of bank lending. In the UK – but not elsewhere – it is an important source of loans for smaller companies. We argue that P2P lending is fundamentally complementary to, and not competitive with, conventional banking. We therefore expect banks to adapt to the emergence of P2P lending, either by cooperating closely with third-party P2P lending platforms or offering their own proprietary platforms. We also argue that the full development of the sector requires much further work addressing the risks and business and regulatory issues in P2P lending, including risk communication, orderly resolution of platform failure, control of liquidity risks and minimisation of fraud, security and operational risks. This will depend on developing reliable business processes, the promotion to the full extent possible of transparency and standardisation and appropriate regulation that serves the needs of customers.

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Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.

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Late Pleistocene signals of calcium carbonate, organic carbon, and opaline silica concentration and accumulation are documented in a series of cores from a zonal/meridional/depth transect in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean to reconstruct the regional sedimentary history. Spectral analysis reveals that maxima and minima in biogenous sedimentation occur with glacial-interglacial cyclicity as a function of both (1) primary production at the sea surface modulated by orbitally forced variation in trade wind zonality and (2) destruction at the seafloor by variation in the chemical character of advected intermediate and deep water from high latitudes modulated by high-latitude ice volume. From these results a pattern emerges in which the relative proportion of signal variance from the productivity signal centered on the precessional (23 kyr) band decreases while that of the destruction signal centered on the obliquity (41 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) periods increases below ~3600-m ocean depth.

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The high-resolution delta18O and delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from a 150,000-year long core from the Caribbean Sea indicate that there was generally high delta13C during glaciations and low delta13C during interglaciations. Due to its 1800-m sill depth, the properties of deep water in the Caribbean Sea are similar to those of middepth tropical Atlantic water. During interglaciations, the water filling the deep Caribbean Sea is an admixture of low delta13C Upper Circumpolar Water (UCPW) and high delta13C Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW). By contrast, only high delta13C UNADW enters during glaciations. Deep ocean circulation changes can influence atmospheric CO2 levels (Broecker and Takahashi, 1985; Boyle, 1988 doi:10.1029/JC093iC12p15701; Keir, 1988 doi:10.1029/PA003i004p00413; Broecker and Peng, 1989 doi:10.1029/GB003i003p00215). By comparing delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from cores lying in Southern Ocean Water, the Caribbean Sea, and at several other Atlantic Ocean sites, the thermohaline state of the Atlantic Ocean (how close it was to a full glacial or full interglacial configuration) is characterized. A continuum of circulation patterns between the glacial and interglacial extremes appears to have existed in the past. Subtracting the deep Pacific (~mean ocean water) delta13C record from the Caribbean delta13C record yields a record which describes large changes in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. The delta13C difference varies as the vertical nutrient distribution changes. This new proxy record bears a striking resemblance to the 150,000-year-long atmospheric CO2 record (Barnola et al., 1987 doi:10.1038/329408a0). This favorable comparison between the new proxy record and the atmospheric CO2 record is consistent with Boyle's (1988a) model that vertical nutrient redistribution has driven large atmospheric CO2 changes in the past. Changes in the relative contribution of NADW and Pacific outflow water to the Southern Ocean are also consistent with Broecker and Peng's (1989) recent model for atmospheric CO2 changes.

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Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Cover title.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Includes bibliographies.

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Bibliography at end of each chapter.