Remarks concerning the double cascade as a necessary mechanism for the instability of steady equivalent-barotropic flows

n a recent paper, Petroniet al. claim that a necessary condition for the instability of two-dimensional steady flows is a «double cascade» of energy and enstrophy respectively to larger and to smaller scales of motion. It is shown here that the analytical reasoning employed by Petroniet al. is flawed and that their conclusions are incorrect. What is true is that in any scale interaction (whether an instability or not), neither energy nor enstrophy can be transferred in one spectral direction only, but this result is extremely well known.

Mean motions induced by baroclinic instability in a jet

A study is made of the zonal-mean motions induced by a growing baroclinic wave in several contexts, under the framework of three different analysis schemes: the conventional Eulerian mean (EM), the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM), and the generalized Lagrangian mean (GLM). The effect of meridional shear in the initial jet on these induced mean motions is considered by treating the instability problem in the context of the two-layer model. The conceptual simplicity of the TEM formulation is shown to be useful in diagnosing the dynamics of instability, much as it has been found helpful in many problems of wave, mean-flow interaction. In addition, it is found that the TEM vertical velocity is a very good indicator of the GLM vertical velocity. However, the GLM meridional velocity is always convergent towards the centre of instability activity, and is not at all well represented by the nondivergent TEM meridional velocity. In comparing the results with Uryu's (1979) calculation of the GLM circulation induced by a growing Eady wave, it is found that the inclusion of meridional jet shear in the present work leads to some strikingly different effects in the GLM zonal wind acceleration. In the case of pure baroclinic instability treated by Uryu, the Eulerian and Stokes accelerations nearly cancel each other in the centre of the channel, leaving a weak Lagrangian acceleration opposed to the Eulerian one. In the more general case of mixed baroclinic-barotropic instability, however, the Eulerian and Stokes accelerations can reinforce one another, leading to a very strong Lagrangian zonal wind

Flow-induced morphological instability of a mushy layer

A morphological instability of a mushy layer due to a forced flow in the melt is analysed. The instability is caused by flow induced in the mushy layer by Bernoulli suction at the crests of a sinusoidally perturbed mush–melt interface. The flow in the mushy layer advects heat away from crests which promotes solidification. Two linear stability analyses are presented: the fundamental mechanism for instability is elucidated by considering the case of uniform flow of an inviscid melt; a more complete analysis is then presented for the case of a parallel shear flow of a viscous melt. The novel instability mechanism we analyse here is contrasted with that investigated by Gilpin et al. (1980) and is found to be more potent for the case of newly forming sea ice.

International terrorism, domestic political instability, and the escalation effect

What are the main causes of international terrorism? Despite the meticulous examination of various candidate explanations, existing estimates still diverge in sign, size, and significance. This article puts forward a novel explanation and supporting evidence. We argue that domestic political instability provides the learning environment needed to successfully execute international terror attacks. Using a yearly panel of 123 countries over 1973–2003, we find that the occurrence of civil wars increases fatalities and the number of international terrorist acts by 45%. These results hold for alternative indicators of political instability, estimators, subsamples, subperiods, and accounting for competing explanations.

Political instability and the persistence of religion in Greece: the policy implications of the cultural defence paradigm

This paper examines the implications of ‘cultural defence’ in the nature of democracy and the stability of the political system in Greece. It focuses on the Greek Orthodox Church’s maintenance of power and political relevance by virtue of its strong link to national identity. We argue that the inhibition of secularization in Greece as a result of cultural defence has significant policy implications, especially in times of crises, when the role of nationalism as a cohesive factor against perceived threats is intensified. The paper further explores three policy/politics areas: (1) political orientation; (2) religious pluralism; and (3) education.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability

Factor forecasting models are shown to deliver real-time gains over autoregressive models for US real activity variables during the recent period, but are less successful for nominal variables. The gains are largely due to the Financial Crisis period, and are primarily at the shortest (one quarter ahead) horizon. Excluding the pre-Great Moderation years from the factor forecasting model estimation period (but not from the data used to extract factors) results in a marked fillip in factor model forecast accuracy, but does the same for the AR model forecasts. The relative performance of the factor models compared to the AR models is largely unaffected by whether the exercise is in real time or is pseudo out-of-sample.

Characterisation of microsatellite markers for fig-pollinating wasps in the Pleistodontes imperialis species complex

We characterised a set of nine polymorphic microsatellite loci for Pleistodontes imperialis sp. 1, the pollinator wasp of Port Jackson fig (Ficus rubiginosa) in south-eastern Australia. Characterisation was performed on 30 female individuals collected from a population in Sydney, Australia. The average number of alleles per locus was 7.33, and eight loci were not in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. This was expected as fig wasps are known to be highly inbred. A test of genetic differentiation between two natural populations of P. imperialis sp. 1 (Sydney and Newcastle, Australia – some 120 km apart) yielded a very low FST value of 0.012, suggesting considerable gene flow. Bayesian clustering analysis using TESS 2.3.1, which does not assume Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, however, indicated potential spatial substructuring between the Sydney and Newcastle populations, as well as within the Sydney population. The described loci were also characterised for two other species in the P. imperialis complex: P. imperialis sp. 2 (Townsville, Australia) and P. imperialis sp. 4 (Brisbane, Australia). Seven and six of the nine loci were polymorphic for P. imperialis sp. 2 and P.imperialis sp. 4, respectively.

Microsatellite markers for hoop-petticoat daffodils (Narcissus sect. Bulbocodii; Amaryllidaceae)

• Premise of the study: Microsatellite markers were developed using hoop-petticoat daffodils ( Narcissus sect. Bulbocodii ; Amaryllidaceae) to aid in the taxonomic revision of the section, and further to evaluate their broad applicability for daffodil cultivar identification. • Methods and Results: Three hundred fifty-one primer pairs were developed using a commercial service. Nineteen polymorphic and repeatable markers were developed by screening 67 of these primer pairs. Of these, 11 chosen markers were used to screen 317 samples; the number of alleles per locus ranged from four to 21, and the observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.101 to 0.297. There were null genotypes in some samples for six of the markers. All the microsatellites were transferable to other Narcissus sections. • Conclusions: The results indicate that these new markers have sufficient potential variation to be used for taxonomic revision of the genus and to distinguish many commercial daffodil cultivars.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci for white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari) and cross-amplification in collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu)

White-lipped peccaries, Tayassu pecari, are neotropical ungulates whose populations have been declining in numerous locations within their geographical distribution. Here we describe 16 microsatellite loci isolated from T. pecari and their cross-amplification in collared peccaries, Pecari tajacu. In 30 individuals of T. pecari, a total of 32 alleles were found in ten polymorphic loci, ranging from 2 to 8 alleles per locus with a mean of 3.2. The expected and observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.143 to 0.802 and from 0 to 0.704, respectively. Two loci deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. In P. tajacu, nine loci were polymorphic with a mean of 3.2 alleles per locus. These molecular markers will be useful to study the genetic status of peccary populations and, consequently, to help their conservation.

Comparative Genetic Diversity of Wild and Captive Populations of the Bare-Faced Curassow (Crax fasciolata) Based on Cross-Species Microsatellite Markers: Implications for Conservation and Management

The bare-faced curassow (Crax fasciolata) is a large Neotropical bird that suffers anthropogenic pressure across much of its range. A captive population is maintained for conservation management, although there has been no genetic screening of stocks. Based on the six microsatellite markers developed for Crax globulosa, the genetic variability of C. fasciolata and possible differences between a wild and a captive population were investigated. Only three loci were polymorphic, with a total of 27 alleles. More than half of these alleles were private to the wild (n = 8) or captive (n = 7) populations. Significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were restricted to the captive population. Despite the number of private alleles, genetic drift has probably promoted differentiation between populations. Our results indicate that wild C. fasciolata populations are genetically impoverished and structured, but species-specific microsatellite markers will be necessary for a more reliable assessment of the species` genetic diversity.

Isolation and characterization of 15 microsatellite loci in the stingless bee Plebeia remota (Apidae: Meliponini)

The destruction of Brazilian natural habitats has reduced bee populations and negative impacts of native flora pollination have been noticed. This work describes the isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci and evaluates them as molecular markers to study genetic variability of the stingless bee Plebeia remota. A microsatellite enriched genomic library was constructed and 15 primer pairs were designed for this species. The survey was conducted by analyzing 21 unrelated individuals. Genetic diversity indexes were calculated. The mean allelic richness was 6.3, the observed heterozygosity was 0.568, and the percentage of polymorphic loci was 93.33%. Also the primers were tested in cross-species amplification and showed promising results for P. droryana, P. emerina, P. lucii, P. meridionalis, P. pugnax, and P. saiqui. The microsatellite loci described here will be useful to evaluate genetic variability of stingless bees, and certainly will improve our knowledge about population dynamics especially in threatened environments.