Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Greenhouse gas emission scenario modeling for cities using the PURGE model

Cities globally are in the midst of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After the vital step of emissions quantification, strategies must be developed to detail how emissions reductions targets will be achieved. The Pathways to Urban Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (PURGE) model allows the estimation of emissions from four pertinent urban sectors: electricity generation, buildings, private transportation, and waste. Additionally, the carbon storage from urban and regional forests is modeled. An emissions scenario is examined for a case study of the greater Toronto, Ontario, Canada, area using data on current technology stocks and government projections for stock change. The scenario presented suggests that even with some aggressive targets for technological adoption (especially in the transportation sector), it will be difficult to achieve the less ambitious 2050 emissions reduction goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is largely attributable to the long life of the building stock and limitations of current retrofit practices. Additionally, demand reduction (through transportation mode shifting and building occupant behavior) will be an important component of future emissions cuts.

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste management—assessment of quantification methods

Of the many sources of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, solid waste is the only one for which management decisions are undertaken primarily by municipal governments themselves and is hence often the largest component of cities’ corporate inventories. It is essential that decision-makers select an appropriate quantification methodology and have an appreciation of methodological strengths and shortcomings. This work compares four different waste emissions quantification methods, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 guidelines, IPCC 2006 guidelines, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Waste Reduction Model (WARM), and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities- Partners for Climate Protection (FCM-PCP) quantification tool. Waste disposal data for the greater Toronto area (GTA) in 2005 are used for all methodologies; treatment options (including landfill, incineration, compost, and anaerobic digestion) are examined where available in methodologies. Landfill was shown to be the greatest source of GHG emissions, contributing more than three-quarters of total emissions associated with waste management. Results from the different landfill gas (LFG) quantification approaches ranged from an emissions source of 557 kt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) (FCM-PCP) to a carbon sink of −53 kt CO2e (EPA WARM). Similar values were obtained between IPCC approaches. The IPCC 2006 method was found to be more appropriate for inventorying applications because it uses a waste-in-place (WIP) approach, rather than a methane commitment (MC) approach, despite perceived onerous data requirements for WIP. MC approaches were found to be useful from a planning standpoint; however, uncertainty associated with their projections of future parameter values limits their applicability for GHG inventorying. MC and WIP methods provided similar results in this case study; however, this is case specific because of similarity in assumptions of present and future landfill parameters and quantities of annual waste deposited in recent years being relatively consistent.

Ruminal methane emission by dairy cattle in Southeast Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of different supplements and sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) cultivars on intake, digestible variables and methane production of dairy heifers under tropical conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Laboratory evaluation of Amazon forest biomass burning emissions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Straightforward systematic approach for fuel efficiency and emissions assessment in automotive systems

At this time, each major automotive market bares its own standards and test procedures to regulate the vehicle green house gases emissions and, thus, fuel consumption. Hence, much are the ways to evaluate the overall efficiency of motor vehicles. The majority of such standards rely on dynamometer cycle tests that appraise only the vehicle as a whole, but fail to assess emissions for each component or sub-system. Once the amount of work generated by the power source of an ICE vehicle to overcome the driving resistance forces is proportional to the energy contained in the required amount of fuel, the power path of the vehicle can be straightforwardly modeled as a set of mechanical systems, and each sub-system evaluated for its share on the total fuel consumption and green house gases emission. This procedure enables the estimation of efficiency gains on the system due to improvement of particular elements on the vehicle's driveline. In this work a simple systematic mechanical model of an arbitrary smallsized hatch back was assembled and total required energy calculated for different regulatory cycles. All the modeling details of the energy balance throughout the system are presented. Afterward, each subsystem was investigated for its role on the fuel consumption and the generated emission quantified. Furthermore, the application of the modeling technique for different sets of sub-systems was introduced. Copyright © 2011 SAE International.

Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Thermochemical equilibrium modeling of a biomass downdraft gasifier: Constrained and unconstrained non-stoichiometric models

The objective of this work is to develop a non-stoichiometric equilibrium model to study parameter effects in the gasification process of a feedstock in downdraft gasifiers. The non-stoichiometric equilibrium model is also known as the Gibbs free energy minimization method. Four models were developed and tested. First a pure non-stoichiometric equilibrium model called M1 was developed; then the methane content was constrained by correlating experimental data and generating the model M2. A kinetic constraint that determines the apparent gasification rate was considered for model M3 and finally the two aforementioned constraints were implemented together in model M4. Models M2 and M4 showed to be the more accurate among the four developed models with mean RMS (root mean square error) values of 1.25 each.Also the gasification of Brazilian Pinus elliottii in a downdraft gasifier with air as gasification agent was studied. The input parameters considered were: (a) equivalence ratio (0.28-035); (b) moisture content (5-20%); (c) gasification time (30-120 min) and carbon conversion efficiency (80-100%). (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurements and modeling of reactive nitrogen deposition in southeast Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Engine LES with fuel-spray modeling

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Soil greenhouse gas emissions and their relations to soil attributes in a sugarcane area

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In vitro evaluation, in vivo quantification, and microbial diversity studies of nutritional strategies for reducing enteric methane production

The main objective of the present work was to study nutritive strategies for lessening the CH4 formation associated to ruminant tropical diets. In vitro gas production technique was used for evaluating the effect of tannin-rich plants, essential oils, and biodiesel co-products on CH4 formation in three individual studies and a small chamber system to measure CH4 released by sheep for in vivo studies was developed. Microbial rumen population diversity from in vitro assays was studied using qPCR. In vitro studies with tanniniferous plants, herbal plant essential oils derived from thyme, fennel, ginger, black seed, and Eucalyptus oil (EuO) added to the basal diet and cakes of oleaginous plants (cotton, palm, castor plant, turnip, and lupine), which were included in the basal diet to replace soybean meal, presented significant differences regarding fermentation gas production and CH4 formation. In vivo assays were performed according to the results of the in vitro assays. , when supplemented to a basal diet (Tifton-85 hay sp, corn grain, soybean meal, cotton seed meal, and mineral mixture) fed to adult Santa Ines sheep reduced enteric CH4 emission but the supplementation of the basal diet with EuO did not affect ( > 0.05) methane released. Regarding the microbial studies of rumen population diversity using qPCR with DNA samples collected from the in vitro trials, the results showed shifts in microbial communities of the tannin-rich plants in relation to control plant. This research demonstrated that tannin-rich , essential oil from eucalyptus, and biodiesel co-products either in vitro or in vivo assays showed potential to mitigate CH4 emission in ruminants. The microbial community study suggested that the reduction in CH4 production may be attributed to a decrease in fermentable substrate rather than to a direct effect on methanogenesis.

Methane emission from soil under long-term no-till cropping systems

Methane (CH4) emission from agricultural soils increases dramatically as a result of deleterious effect of soil disturbance and nitrogen fertilization on methanotrophic organisms; however, few studies have attempted to evaluate the potential of long-term conservation management systems to mitigate CH4 emissions in tropical and subtropical soils. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effect (>19 years) of no-till grass- and legume-based cropping systems on annual soil CH4 fluxes in a formerly degraded Acrisol in Southern Brazil. Air sampling was carried out using static chambers and CH4 analysis by gas chromatography. Analysis of historical data set of the experiment evidenced a remarkable effect of high C- and N-input cropping systems on the improvement of biological, chemical, and physical characteristics of this no-tilled soil. Soil CH4 fluxes, which represent a net balance between consumption (-) and production (+) of CH4 in soil, varied from -40 +/- 2 to +62 +/- 78 mu g C m(-2) h(-1). Mean weighted contents of ammonium (NH4+-N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil had a positive relationship with accumulated soil CH4 fluxes in the post-management period (r(2) = 0.95, p = 0.05), suggesting an additive effect of these nutrients in suppressing CH4 oxidation and stimulating methanogenesis, respectively, in legume-based cropping systems with high biomass input. Annual CH4 fluxes ranged from -50 +/- 610 to +994 +/- 105 g C ha(-1), which were inversely related to annual biomass-C input (r(2) = 0.99, p = 0.003), with the exception of the cropping system containing pigeon pea, a summer legume that had the highest biologically fixed N input (>300 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Our results evidenced a small effect of conservation management systems on decreasing CH4 emissions from soil, despite their significant effect restoring soil quality. We hypothesized that soil CH4 uptake strength has been off-set by an injurious effect of biologically fixed N in legume-based cropping systems on soil methanotrophic microbiota, and by the methanogenesis increase as a result of the O-2 depletion in niches of high biological activity in the surface layer of the no-tillage soil. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Within-plant isoprene oxidation confirmed by direct emissions of oxidation products methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein

Isoprene is emitted from many terrestrial plants at high rates, accounting for an estimated 1/3 of annual global volatile organic compound emissions from all anthropogenic and biogenic sources combined. Through rapid photooxidation reactions in the atmosphere, isoprene is converted to a variety of oxidized hydrocarbons, providing higher order reactants for the production of organic nitrates and tropospheric ozone, reducing the availability of oxidants for the breakdown of radiatively active trace gases such as methane, and potentially producing hygroscopic particles that act as effective cloud condensation nuclei. However, the functional basis for plant production of isoprene remains elusive. It has been hypothesized that in the cell isoprene mitigates oxidative damage during the stress-induced accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), but the products of isoprene-ROS reactions in plants have not been detected. Using pyruvate-2-13C leaf and branch feeding and individual branch and whole mesocosm flux studies, we present evidence that isoprene (i) is oxidized to methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein (iox) in leaves and that iox/i emission ratios increase with temperature, possibly due to an increase in ROS production under high temperature and light stress. In a primary rainforest in Amazonia, we inferred significant in plant isoprene oxidation (despite the strong masking effect of simultaneous atmospheric oxidation), from its influence on the vertical distribution of iox uptake fluxes, which were shifted to low isoprene emitting regions of the canopy. These observations suggest that carbon investment in isoprene production is larger than that inferred from emissions alone and that models of tropospheric chemistry and biotachemistryclimate interactions should incorporate isoprene oxidation within both the biosphere and the atmosphere with potential implications for better understanding both the oxidizing power of the troposphere and forest response to climate change.