Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

Numeric reconstruction of cytoskeleton with finite element method and topology optimization method

The importance of mechanical aspects related to cell activity and its environment is becoming more evident due to their influence in stem cell differentiation and in the development of diseases such as atherosclerosis. The mechanical tension homeostasis is related to normal tissue behavior and its lack may be related to the formation of cancer, which shows a higher mechanical tension. Due to the complexity of cellular activity, the application of simplified models may elucidate which factors are really essential and which have a marginal effect. The development of a systematic method to reconstruct the elements involved in the perception of mechanical aspects by the cell may accelerate substantially the validation of these models. This work proposes the development of a routine capable of reconstructing the topology of focal adhesions and the actomyosin portion of the cytoskeleton from the displacement field generated by the cell on a flexible substrate. Another way to think of this problem is to develop an algorithm to reconstruct the forces applied by the cell from the measurements of the substrate displacement, which would be characterized as an inverse problem. For these kind of problems, the Topology Optimization Method (TOM) is suitable to find a solution. TOM is consisted of an iterative application of an optimization method and an analysis method to obtain an optimal distribution of material in a fixed domain. One way to experimentally obtain the substrate displacement is through Traction Force Microscopy (TFM), which also provides the forces applied by the cell. Along with systematically generating the distributions of focal adhesion and actin-myosin for the validation of simplified models, the algorithm also represents a complementary and more phenomenological approach to TFM. As a first approximation, actin fibers and flexible substrate are represented through two-dimensional linear Finite Element Method. Actin contraction is modeled as an initial stress of the FEM elements. Focal adhesions connecting actin and substrate are represented by springs. The algorithm was applied to data obtained from experiments regarding cytoskeletal prestress and micropatterning, comparing the numerical results to the experimental ones

A novel map-matching procedure for low-sampling GPS data with applications to traffic flow analysis

An extensive sample (2%) of private vehicles in Italy are equipped with a GPS device that periodically measures their position and dynamical state for insurance purposes. Having access to this type of data allows to develop theoretical and practical applications of great interest: the real-time reconstruction of traffic state in a certain region, the development of accurate models of vehicle dynamics, the study of the cognitive dynamics of drivers. In order for these applications to be possible, we first need to develop the ability to reconstruct the paths taken by vehicles on the road network from the raw GPS data. In fact, these data are affected by positioning errors and they are often very distanced from each other (~2 Km). For these reasons, the task of path identification is not straightforward. This thesis describes the approach we followed to reliably identify vehicle paths from this kind of low-sampling data. The problem of matching data with roads is solved with a bayesian approach of maximum likelihood. While the identification of the path taken between two consecutive GPS measures is performed with a specifically developed optimal routing algorithm, based on A* algorithm. The procedure was applied on an off-line urban data sample and proved to be robust and accurate. Future developments will extend the procedure to real-time execution and nation-wide coverage.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

Polarization observables in virtual compton scattering

Virtual Compton Scattering (VCS) is an important reaction for understanding nucleon structure at low energies. By studying this process, the generalized polarizabilities of the nucleon can be measured. These observables are a generalization of the already known polarizabilities and will permit theoretical models to be challenged on a new level. More specifically, there exist six generalized polarizabilities and in order to disentangle them all, a double polarization experiment must be performed. Within this work, the VCS reaction p(e,e p)gamma was measured at MAMI using the A1 Collaboration three spectrometer setup with Q2=0.33 (GeV/c)2. Using the highly polarized MAMI beam and a recoil proton polarimeter, it was possible to measure both the VCS cross section and the double polarization observables. Already in 2000, the unpolarized VCS cross section was measured at MAMI. In this new experiment, we could confirm the old data and furthermore the double polarization observables were measured for the first time. The data were taken in five periods between 2005 and 2006. In this work, the data were analyzed to extract the cross section and the proton polarization. For the analysis, a maximum likelihood algorithm was developed together with the full simulation of all the analysis steps. The experiment is limited by the low statistics due mainly to the focal plane proton polarimeter efficiency. To overcome this problem, a new determination and parameterization of the carbon analyzing power was performed. The main result of the experiment is the extraction of a new combination of the generalized polarizabilities using the double polarization observables.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Warped extra dimensions: flavor, precision tests and Higgs physics

In this thesis, the phenomenology of the Randall-Sundrum setup is investigated. In this context models with and without an enlarged SU(2)_L x SU(2)_R x U(1)_X x P_{LR} gauge symmetry, which removes corrections to the T parameter and to the Z b_L \bar b_L coupling, are compared with each other. The Kaluza-Klein decomposition is formulated within the mass basis, which allows for a clear understanding of various model-specific features. A complete discussion of tree-level flavor-changing effects is presented. Exact expressions for five dimensional propagators are derived, including Yukawa interactions that mediate flavor-off-diagonal transitions. The symmetry that reduces the corrections to the left-handed Z b \bar b coupling is analyzed in detail. In the literature, Randall-Sundrum models have been used to address the measured anomaly in the t \bar t forward-backward asymmetry. However, it will be shown that this is not possible within a natural approach to flavor. The rare decays t \to cZ and t \to ch are investigated, where in particular the latter could be observed at the LHC. A calculation of \Gamma_{12}^{B_s} in the presence of new physics is presented. It is shown that the Randall-Sundrum setup allows for an improved agreement with measurements of A_{SL}^s, S_{\psi\phi}, and \Delta\Gamma_s. For the first time, a complete one-loop calculation of all relevant Higgs-boson production and decay channels in the custodial Randall-Sundrum setup is performed, revealing a sensitivity to large new-physics scales at the LHC.

On the flavor problem in strongly coupled theories

rnThis thesis is on the flavor problem of Randall Sundrum modelsrnand their strongly coupled dual theories. These models are particularly wellrnmotivated extensions of the Standard Model, because they simultaneously address rntherngauge hierarchy problem and the hierarchies in the quarkrnmasses and mixings. In order to put this into context, special attention is given to concepts underlying therntheories which can explain the hierarchy problem and the flavor structure of the Standard Model (SM). ThernAdS/CFTrnduality is introduced and its implications for the Randall Sundrum model withrnfermions in the bulk andrngeneral bulk gauge groups is investigated. It will be shown that the differentrnterms in the general 5D propagator of a bulk gauge field can be related tornthe corresponding diagrams of the strongly coupled dual, which allows for arndeeperrnunderstanding of the origin of flavor changing neutral currents generated by thernexchange of the Kaluza Klein excitations of these bulk fields.rnIn the numerical analysis, different observables which are sensitive torncorrections from therntree-levelrnexchange of these resonances will be presented on the basis of updatedrnexperimental data from the Tevatron and LHC experiments. This includesrnelectroweak precision observables, namely corrections to the S and Trnparameters followed by corrections to the Zbb vertex, flavor changingrnobservables with flavor changes at one vertex, viz. BR (Bd -> mu+mu-) and BR (Bs -> mu+mu-), and two vertices,rn viz. S_psiphi and |eps_K|, as well as bounds from direct detectionrnexperiments. rnThe analysis will show that all of these bounds can be brought in agreement withrna new physics scale Lambda_NP in the TeV range, except for the CPrnviolating quantity |eps_K|, which requires Lambda_NP= Ord(10) TeVrnin the absencernof fine-tuning. The numerous modifications of the Randall Sundrum modelrnin the literature, which try to attenuate this bound are reviewed andrncategorized.rnrnSubsequently, a novel solution to this flavor problem, based on an extendedrncolor gauge group in the bulk and its thorough implementation inrnthe RS model, will be presented, as well as an analysis of the observablesrnmentioned above in the extended model. This solution is especially motivatedrnfromrnthe point of view of the strongly coupled dual theory and the implications forrnstrongly coupled models of new physics, which do not possess a holographic dual,rnare examined.rnFinally, the top quark plays a special role in models with a geometric explanation ofrnflavor hierarchies and the predictions in the Randall-Sundrum model with andrnwithout the proposed extension for the forward-backward asymmetryrnA_FB^trnin top pair production are computed.

Large Sample Theory for Semiparametric Regression Models with Two-Phase, Outcome Dependent Sampling

Outcome-dependent, two-phase sampling designs can dramatically reduce the costs of observational studies by judicious selection of the most informative subjects for purposes of detailed covariate measurement. Here we derive asymptotic information bounds and the form of the efficient score and influence functions for the semiparametric regression models studied by Lawless, Kalbfleisch, and Wild (1999) under two-phase sampling designs. We show that the maximum likelihood estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model are asymptotically normal and efficient. The efficient influence function for the parametric part aggress with the more general information bound calculations of Robins, Hsieh, and Newey (1995). By verifying the conditions of Murphy and Van der Vaart (2000) for a least favorable parametric submodel, we provide asymptotic justification for statistical inference based on profile likelihood.

On the Accelerated Failure Time Model for Current Status and Interval Censored Data

This paper introduces a novel approach to making inference about the regression parameters in the accelerated failure time (AFT) model for current status and interval censored data. The estimator is constructed by inverting a Wald type test for testing a null proportional hazards model. A numerically efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based resampling method is proposed to simultaneously obtain the point estimator and a consistent estimator of its variance-covariance matrix. We illustrate our approach with interval censored data sets from two clinical studies. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the new estimators.

Semiparametric Normal Transformation Models for Spatially Correlated Survival Data

There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this paper, we propose a new class of semiparametric normal transformation models for right censored spatially correlated survival data. This class of models assumes that survival outcomes marginally follow a Cox proportional hazard model with unspecified baseline hazard, and their joint distribution is obtained by transforming survival outcomes to normal random variables, whose joint distribution is assumed to be multivariate normal with a spatial correlation structure. A key feature of the class of semiparametric normal transformation models is that it provides a rich class of spatial survival models where regression coefficients have population average interpretation and the spatial dependence of survival times is conveniently modeled using the transformed variables by flexible normal random fields. We study the relationship of the spatial correlation structure of the transformed normal variables and the dependence measures of the original survival times. Direct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in such models is practically prohibited due to the high dimensional intractable integration of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensional nuisance baseline hazard parameter. We hence develop a class of spatial semiparametric estimating equations, which conveniently estimate the population-level regression coefficients and the dependence parameters simultaneously. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed method is illustrated with an analysis of data from the East Boston Ashma Study and its performance is evaluated using simulations.

Minimal assumption derivation of a weak Clauser-Horne inequality

According to Bell's theorem a large class of hidden-variable models obeying Bell's notion of local causality (LC) conflict with the predictions of quantum mechanics. Recently, a Bell-type theorem has been proven using a weaker notion of LC, yet assuming the existence of perfectly correlated event types. Here we present a similar Bell-type theorem without this latter assumption. The derived inequality differs from the Clauser-Horne inequality by some small correction terms, which render it less constraining.

Integration of Truncated Distributions in Exponential Family with Simulation Models of Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Truncated distributions of the exponential family have great influence in the simulation models. This paper discusses the truncated Weibull distribution specifically. The truncation of the distribution is achieved by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method or combined with the expectation and variance expressions. After the fitting of distribution, the goodness-of-fit tests (the Chi-Square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are executed to rule out the rejected hypotheses. Finally the distributions are integrated in various simulation models, e. g. shipment consolidation model, to compare the influence of truncated and original versions of Weibull distribution on the model.

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

New algorithms for automated phylogenetic reconstruction using artificial intelligence and data mining techniques

Academic and industrial research in the late 90s have brought about an exponential explosion of DNA sequence data. Automated expert systems are being created to help biologists to extract patterns, trends and links from this ever-deepening ocean of information. Two such systems aimed on retrieving and subsequently utilizing phylogenetically relevant information have been developed in this dissertation, the major objective of which was to automate the often difficult and confusing phylogenetic reconstruction process. ^ Popular phylogenetic reconstruction methods, such as distance-based methods, attempt to find an optimal tree topology (that reflects the relationships among related sequences and their evolutionary history) by searching through the topology space. Various compromises between the fast (but incomplete) and exhaustive (but computationally prohibitive) search heuristics have been suggested. An intelligent compromise algorithm that relies on a flexible “beam” search principle from the Artificial Intelligence domain and uses the pre-computed local topology reliability information to adjust the beam search space continuously is described in the second chapter of this dissertation. ^ However, sometimes even a (virtually) complete distance-based method is inferior to the significantly more elaborate (and computationally expensive) maximum likelihood (ML) method. In fact, depending on the nature of the sequence data in question either method might prove to be superior. Therefore, it is difficult (even for an expert) to tell a priori which phylogenetic reconstruction method—distance-based, ML or maybe maximum parsimony (MP)—should be chosen for any particular data set. ^ A number of factors, often hidden, influence the performance of a method. For example, it is generally understood that for a phylogenetically “difficult” data set more sophisticated methods (e.g., ML) tend to be more effective and thus should be chosen. However, it is the interplay of many factors that one needs to consider in order to avoid choosing an inferior method (potentially a costly mistake, both in terms of computational expenses and in terms of reconstruction accuracy.) ^ Chapter III of this dissertation details a phylogenetic reconstruction expert system that selects a superior proper method automatically. It uses a classifier (a Decision Tree-inducing algorithm) to map a new data set to the proper phylogenetic reconstruction method. ^