Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

Time to renal disease and end-stage renal disease in PROFILE: a multiethnic lupus cohort.

BACKGROUND: Renal involvement is a serious manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE); it may portend a poor prognosis as it may lead to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The purpose of this study was to determine the factors predicting the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD in a multi-ethnic SLE cohort (PROFILE). METHODS AND FINDINGS: PROFILE includes SLE patients from five different United States institutions. We examined at baseline the socioeconomic-demographic, clinical, and genetic variables associated with the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Analyses of onset of renal involvement included only patients with renal involvement after SLE diagnosis (n = 229). Analyses of ESRD included all patients, regardless of whether renal involvement occurred before, at, or after SLE diagnosis (34 of 438 patients). In addition, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis of the variables associated with the development of renal involvement at any time during the course of SLE.In the time-dependent multivariable analysis, patients developing renal involvement were more likely to have more American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE, and to be younger, hypertensive, and of African-American or Hispanic (from Texas) ethnicity. Alternative regression models were consistent with these results. In addition to greater accrued disease damage (renal damage excluded), younger age, and Hispanic ethnicity (from Texas), homozygosity for the valine allele of FcgammaRIIIa (FCGR3A*GG) was a significant predictor of ESRD. Results from the multivariable logistic regression model that included all cases of renal involvement were consistent with those from the Cox model. CONCLUSIONS: Fcgamma receptor genotype is a risk factor for progression of renal disease to ESRD. Since the frequency distribution of FCGR3A alleles does not vary significantly among the ethnic groups studied, the additional factors underlying the ethnic disparities in renal disease progression remain to be elucidated.

The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Memory and attention problems in children with brain tumors at diagnosis

Purpose: Results from previous studies indicate that children with brain tumors (BT) might present with cognitive problems at diagnosis and thus before the start of any medical treatment. The question remains whether these problems are due to the underlying tumor itself or due to the high level of emotional and physical stress which is involved at diagnosis of a malignant disorder. All children with a de novo oncological diagnosis not involving the central nervous systems (CNS) are usually exposed to a comparable level of distress. However, patients with cancer not involving the CNS are not expected to show disease-related cognitive problems. Thus they serve as a well-balanced control group (CG) to help distinguish between the probable causes of the effect. Method: In a pilot study we analyzed an array of cognitive functions in 16 children with BT and 17 control patients. In both groups, tests were administered in-patient at diagnosis before any therapeutic intervention such as surgery, chemotherapy od irradiation. Results: Performance of children with BT was comparable to that of CG patients in the areas of intelligence, perceptual reasoning, verbal comprehension, working memory, and processing speed. In contrast, however, BT patients performded significantly worse in verbal memory and attention. Conclusion: Memory and attention seem to be the most vulnerable funstions affected by BT, with other functions being preserved at the time of diagnosis. It ist to be expected that this vulnerability might exacerbate the cognitive decline after chemotherapy and radiation treatment - known to impair intellectual performance. The findings highlight the need of early cognitive assessments in children with BT in order to introduce cognitive training as early as possible to minimize or even prevent cognitive long-term sequelae. This might improve long-term academic and professional outcome of these children, but especially helps their return to school after hospitalization.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in a non-cirrhotic patient with Wilson's disease

We report the exceptional case of hepatocellular carcinoma in a non-cirrhotic patient, whose Wilson's disease was diagnosed at the unusual age of 58 years. The liver histology revealed macrovesicular steatosis with fibrosis, but no cirrhosis. The disease was treated with D-penicillamine for 3 years until acute discomfort in the right upper quadrant led to detection of multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma, which was successfully resected. The histological examination confirmed the malignant nature of the 4 lesions, which were classified according to Edmondson and Steiner as poorly differentiated hepatocellular carcinoma grade 3. The non-tumoral parenchyma showed 80% steatosis with ballooned cells, lobular inflammation, septal fibrosis but no cirrhosis. Hepatocellular carcinoma is rare in Wilson's disease, especially in the absence of cirrhosis. The literature's 28 published cases are reviewed and the contributory role of copper in the hepatocarcinogenic process is discussed.

Disease progression and recurrence in women treated for vulvovaginal intraepithelial neoplasia

OBJECTIVE The malignant potential of intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina after treatment is not well defined. Our objective was to examine risk factors for recurrence and invasive disease. METHODS Four hundred sixty-four women with biopsy proven high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina were identified in the electronic databases of four colposcopy clinics. Inclusion criteria were a follow-up of more than one year, no history of invasive cancer and no invasive cancer within the first year after initial treatment. We investigated the potential factors associated with recurrence and progression using a logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Of the 411 eligible patients, 123 patients (29.9%) recurred later than one year after initial treatment and 24 patients (5.8%) progressed to invasive disease. According to multivariate analyses, the risk factors associated with recurrence were multifocality (OR, 3.33; 95% CI, 2.02 to 5.51), immunosuppression (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.09 to 5.81), excision as initial treatment (vs. laser evaporation; OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.91) and smoking (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.55). Risk factors for progression to invasive disease were immunosuppression (OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.30 to 12.25), multifocality (OR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.25 to 7.43) and smoking (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.16 to 7.60), but not treatment modality. CONCLUSION Laser evaporation combined with extensive biopsy is at least as efficacious as initial treatment of intraepithelial neoplasia with excision. Smoking is a risk factor for both recurrence and progression to invasive disease. Hence, smoking cessation should be advised and maintaining a long follow-up period due to late relapses is necessary.

Sleepwalking, REM sleep behaviour disorder and overlap parasomnia in patients with Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND/AIMS In a questionnaire survey, we identified 36 (9%) of 417 Parkinson's disease (PD) patients with sleepwalking (SW); 72% of them also had a history of REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD). We aimed to assess the clinical and polysomnographic characteristics of SW in PD and to compare them to patients with PD with and without a history of RBD. METHODS We performed video-polysomnography and detailed clinical examination in 30 PD patients from the above-mentioned survey: 10 patients with a history of SW, 10 patients with a history of RBD, and 10 patients with no history of either SW or RBD. RESULTS PD patients with SW had higher depression, anxiety and Hoehn & Yahr scores and lower activities of daily living scores than patients without a history of RBD but did not differ from patients with RBD. Patients with SW and RBD also had more often dyskinesia and hallucinations. By polysomnography, RBD was observed in 8 patients with SW and in all patients with a history of RBD. A total of 5 patients without a history of either SW or RBD had REM sleep without atonia without behavioural peculiarities. CONCLUSION SW in PD is associated with depression, higher disease severity and functional disability. The simultaneous occurrence of SW and RBD (overlap parasomnia) in most patients suggests a common underlying disturbance of motor control during sleep in PD, with variable manifestations in different sleep stages.

Altered Electrophysiology of Semantic Word Processing in Alzheimer's Disease and Semantic Dementia

With the progressing course of Alzheimer's disease (AD), deficits in declarative memory increasingly restrict the patients' daily activities. Besides the more apparent episodic (biographical) memory impairments, the semantic (factual) memory is also affected by this neurodegenerative disorder. The episodic pathology is well explored; instead the underlying neurophysiological mechanisms of the semantic deficits remain unclear. For a profound understanding of semantic memory processes in general and in AD patients, the present study compares AD patients with healthy controls and Semantic Dementia (SD) patients, a dementia subgroup that shows isolated semantic memory impairments. We investigate the semantic memory retrieval during the recording of an electroencephalogram, while subjects perform a semantic priming task. Precisely, the task demands lexical (word/nonword) decisions on sequentially presented word pairs, consisting of semantically related or unrelated prime-target combinations. Our analysis focuses on group-dependent differences in the amplitude and topography of the event related potentials (ERP) evoked by related vs. unrelated target words. AD patients are expected to differ from healthy controls in semantic retrieval functions. The semantic storage system itself, however, is thought to remain preserved in AD, while SD patients presumably suffer from the actual loss of semantic representations.

Malignant nail tumors

Because of the large number of different tissues making up the distal phalanx of fingers and toes, a large variety of malignant tumors can be found in and around the nail apparatus. Bowen disease is probably the most frequent nail malignancy. It is usually seen as a verrucous plaque of the nail fold and nail bed in persons above the age of 40 years. It slowly grows over a period of years or even decades before degenerating to an invasive squamous cell carcinoma. The latter may also occur primarily often as a weeping onycholysis. The next most frequent nail malignancy is ungual melanoma. Those arising from the matrix are usually pigmented and often start with a longitudinal melanonychia whereas those originating from the nail bed remain amelanotic, are often nodular and mistaken for an ingrown nail in an elderly person. The treatment of choice for in situ and early invasive subungual melanomas is generous extirpation of the nail apparatus whereas distal amputation is only indicated for advanced melanomas. In addition to these frequent nail malignancies, nail-specific carcinomas, malignant vascular and osseous tumors, other sarcomas, nail involvement in malignant systemic disorders and metastases may occur. In most cases, they cannot be diagnosed accurately on clinical grounds. Therefore, a high degree of suspicion is necessary in all isolated or single-digit proliferations that do not respond to conservative treatment.

The VEINES-QOL/Sym questionnaire is a reliable and valid disease-specific quality of life measure for deep vein thrombosis in elderly patients.

PURPOSE To prospectively evaluate the psychometric properties of the Venous Insufficiency Epidemiological and Economic Study (VEINES-QOL/Sym) questionnaire, an instrument to measure disease-specific quality of life and symptoms in elderly patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and to validate a German version of the questionnaire. METHODS In a prospective multicenter cohort study of patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute venous thromboembolism, we used standard psychometric tests and criteria to evaluate the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the VEINES-QOL/Sym in patients with acute symptomatic DVT. We also performed an exploratory factor analysis. RESULTS Overall, 352 French- and German-speaking patients were enrolled (response rate of 87 %). Both language versions of the VEINES-QOL/Sym showed good acceptability (missing data, floor and ceiling effects), reliability (internal consistency, item-total and inter-item correlations), validity (convergent, discriminant, known-groups differences), and responsiveness to clinical change over time in elderly patients with DVT. The exploratory factor analysis of the VEINES-QOL/Sym suggested three underlying dimensions: limitations in daily activities, DVT-related symptoms, and psychological impact. CONCLUSIONS The VEINES-QOL/Sym questionnaire is a practical, reliable, valid, and responsive instrument to measure quality of life and symptoms in elderly patients with DVT and can be used with confidence in prospective studies to measure outcomes in such patients.

Novel prognostic markers revealed by a proteomic approach separating benign from malignant insulinomas.

The prognosis of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors is related to size, histology and proliferation rate. However, this stratification needs to be refined further. We conducted a proteome study on insulinomas, a well-defined pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor entity, in order to identify proteins that can be used as biomarkers for malignancy. Based on a long follow-up, insulinomas were divided into those with metastases (malignant) and those without (benign). Microdissected cells from six benign and six malignant insulinomas were subjected to a procedure combining fluorescence dye saturation labeling with high-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. Differentially expressed proteins were identified using nano liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization/multi-stage mass spectrometry and validated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays containing 62 insulinomas. Sixteen differentially regulated proteins were identified among 3000 protein spots. Immunohistochemical validation revealed that aldehyde dehydrogenase 1A1 and voltage-dependent anion-selective channel protein 1 showed significantly stronger expression in malignant insulinomas than in benign insulinomas, whereas tumor protein D52 (TPD52) binding protein was expressed less strongly in malignant insulinomas than in benign insulinomas. Using multivariate analysis, low TPD52 expression was identified as a strong independent prognostic factor for both recurrence-free and overall disease-related survival.

Why does placement of persons with Alzheimer's disease into long-term care improve caregivers' well-being? Examination of psychological mediators.

Caregiving for individuals with Alzheimer's disease is associated with chronic stress and elevated symptoms of depression. Placement of the care receiver (CR) into a long-term care setting may be associated with improved caregiver well-being; however, the psychological mechanisms underlying this relationship are unclear. This study evaluated whether decreases in activity restriction and increases in personal mastery mediated placement-related reductions in caregiver depressive symptoms. In a 5-year longitudinal study of 126 spousal Alzheimer's disease caregivers, we used multilevel models to evaluate placement-related changes in depressive symptoms (short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale), activity restriction (Activity Restriction Scale), and personal mastery (Pearlin Mastery Scale) in 44 caregivers who placed their spouses into long-term care relative to caregivers who never placed their CRs. The Monte Carlo method for assessing mediation was used to evaluate the significance of the indirect effect of activity restriction and personal mastery on postplacement changes in depressive symptoms. Placement of the CR was associated with significant reductions in depressive symptoms and activity restriction and was also associated with increased personal mastery. Lower activity restriction and higher personal mastery were associated with reduced depressive symptoms. Furthermore, both variables significantly mediated the effect of placement on depressive symptoms. Placement-related reductions in activity restriction and increases in personal mastery are important psychological factors that help explain postplacement reductions in depressive symptoms. The implications for clinical care provided to caregivers are discussed.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy of malignant pleural mesothelioma with or without hemithoracic radiotherapy (SAKK 17/04): a randomised, international, multicentre phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND Postoperative hemithoracic radiotherapy has been used to treat malignant pleural mesothelioma, but it has not been assessed in a randomised trial. We assessed high-dose hemithoracic radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS We did this phase 2 trial in two parts at 14 hospitals in Switzerland, Belgium, and Germany. We enrolled patients with pathologically confirmed malignant pleural mesothelioma; resectable TNM stages T1-3 N0-2, M0; WHO performance status 0-1; age 18-70 years. In part 1, patients were given three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) and pemetrexed 500 mg/m(2) on day 1 given every 3 weeks) and extrapleural pneumonectomy; the primary endpoint was complete macroscopic resection (R0-1). In part 2, participants with complete macroscopic resection were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive high-dose radiotherapy or not. The target volume for radiotherapy encompassed the entire hemithorax, the thoracotomy channel, and mediastinal nodal stations if affected by the disease or violated surgically. A boost was given to areas at high risk for locoregional relapse. The allocation was stratified by centre, histology (sarcomatoid vs epithelioid or mixed), mediastinal lymph node involvement (N0-1 vs N2), and T stage (T1-2 vs T3). The primary endpoint of part 1 was the proportion of patients achieving complete macroscopic resection (R0 and R1). The primary endpoint in part 2 was locoregional relapse-free survival, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00334594. FINDINGS We enrolled patients between Dec 7, 2005, and Oct 17, 2012. Overall, we analysed 151 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, of whom 113 (75%) had extrapleural pneumonectomy. Median follow-up was 54·2 months (IQR 32-66). 52 (34%) of 151 patients achieved an objective response. The most common grade 3 or 4 toxic effects were neutropenia (21 [14%] of 151 patients), anaemia (11 [7%]), and nausea or vomiting (eight [5%]). 113 patients had extrapleural pneumonectomy, with complete macroscopic resection achieved in 96 (64%) of 151 patients. We enrolled 54 patients in part 2; 27 in each group. The main reasons for exclusion were patient refusal (n=20) and ineligibility (n=10). 25 of 27 patients completed radiotherapy. Median total radiotherapy dose was 55·9 Gy (IQR 46·8-56·0). Median locoregional relapse-free survival from surgery, was 7·6 months (95% CI 4·5-10·7) in the no radiotherapy group and 9·4 months (6·5-11·9) in the radiotherapy group. The most common grade 3 or higher toxic effects related to radiotherapy were nausea or vomiting (three [11%] of 27 patients), oesophagitis (two [7%]), and pneumonitis (two [7%]). One patient died of pneumonitis. We recorded no toxic effects data for the control group. INTERPRETATION Our findings do not support the routine use of hemithoracic radiotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy. FUNDING Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation, Eli Lilly.

Sentinel lymph node biopsy in thick malignant melanoma: A 16-year single unit experience.

BACKGROUND The role of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and its benefits in patients with thick melanoma is still controversial. OBJECTIVES We evaluated the clinical effect of SLNB in patients with thick melanoma. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort review (1996-2012) of thick melanomas. Collected data included the patient and tumour characteristics. Locoregional recurrence, distant metastases, disease free and overall survival were compared between the patients with positive and negative SLNB. RESULTS 126 thick melanomas with a mean age of 64.09 years were included in the study. Positive SLNB were found in 47 (37.3%) patients. Significantly more locoregional recurrence (P = 0.002) and distant metastases (P = 0.030) were detected in the patients with positive SLNB. Furthermore, the patients with negative SLNB showed significantly better disease free survival (P = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS Positive SLNB might be prognostic factor in thick melanoma and aggravates the outcome of thick melanomas.

A retrospective study of 1- versus 2-cm excision margins for cutaneous malignant melanomas thicker than 2 mm.

BACKGROUND Most guidelines recommend at least 2-cm excision margin for melanomas thicker than 2 mm. OBJECTIVE We evaluated whether 1- or 2-cm excision margins for melanoma (>2 mm) result in different outcomes. METHODS This is a retrospective cohort study on patients with melanomas (>2 mm) who underwent tumor excision with 1-cm (228 patients) or 2-cm (97 patients) margins to investigate presence of local recurrences, locoregional and distant metastases, and disease-free and overall survival. RESULTS In all, 325 patients with mean age of 61.84 years and Breslow thickness of 4.36 mm were considered for the study with a median follow-up of 1852 days (1995-2012). There was no significant difference in the frequency of locoregional and distant metastasis between the 2 groups (P = .311 and .571). The survival analysis showed no differences for disease-free (P = .800; hazard ratio 0.948; 95% confidence interval 0.627-1.433) and overall (P = .951; hazard ratio 1.018; 95% confidence interval 0.575-1.803) survival. LIMITATIONS The study was not prospectively randomized. CONCLUSIONS Our study did not show any significant differences in important outcome parameters such as local or distant metastases and overall survival. A prospective study testing 1- versus 2-cm excision margin is warranted.