Expert Information and Majority Decisions

This paper studies dichotomous majority voting in common interest committees where each member receives not only a private signal but also a public signal observed by all of them. The public signal represents, e.g. expert information presented to an entire committee and its quality is higher than that of each individual private signal. We identify two informative symmetric strategy equilibria, namely i) the mixed strategy equilibrium where each member randomizes between following the private and public signals should they disagree; and ii) the pure strategy equilibrium where they follow the public signal for certain. The former outperforms the latter. The presence of the public signal precludes the equilibrium where every member follows their own signal, which is an equilibrium in the absence of the public signal. The mixed strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal outperforms the sincere voting equilibrium without the public signal, but the latter may be more efficient than the pure strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal. We suggest that whether expert information improves committee decision making depends on equilibrium selection.

Adopcions internacionals: anàlisi de les motivacions inicials per esdevenir pares adoptius a Catalunya

En els darrers anys Espanya, i concretament Catalunya, s'ha convertit en el país amb major nombre d'adopcions per habitant del món. Aquest fet ens duu a plantejar-nos quines són les motivacions que impulsen als sol•licitants a voler adoptar. En aquest estudi fem una categorització de les principals motivacions inicials de l'adopció internacional manifestades en els processos de valoració per a l'obtenció del Certificat d'Idoneïtat en una mostra catalana de 331 persones. Els resultats obtinguts ens indiquen que la majoria de sol•licitants adopta pensant en les seves necessitats i en les seves dificultats per a procrear i no tant en el menor que volen adoptar.

Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade

Most of the expansion of global trade during the last three decades has been of the North-South kind - between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. Based on this observation, I argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. I present novel evidence documenting that differences in capital-labour ratios across countries have increased in the wake of two shocks to the global economy: i) the opening up of China and ii) financial globalisation and the resulting upstream capital flows towards capital-abundant regions. I analyse their impact on specialisation and the volume of trade in a dynamic model which combines factor-proportions trade in goods with international trade in financial assets. Calibrating this model, I find that it can account for 60% of world trade growth between 1980 and 2007. It is also capable of predicting international investment patterns which are consistent with the data

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Education and the local equity bias around the world

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between different facets of education and diversification in international portfolios. We find that university education, mathematical numeracy, in addition to financial skill, play an important role in reducing home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies with more university graduates, or with higher level of mathematical numeracy, have lower level of local equity bias compared to more developed countries. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Antidoping programme and biological monitoring before and during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The FIFA has implemented an important antidoping programme for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. AIM: To perform the analyses before and during the World Cup with biological monitoring of blood and urine samples. METHODS: All qualified players from the 32 teams participating in the World Cup were tested out-of-competition. During the World Cup, 2-8 players per match were tested. Over 1000 samples were collected in total and analysed in the WADA accredited Laboratory of Lausanne. RESULTS: The quality of the analyses was at the required level as described in the WADA technical documents. The urinary steroid profiles of the players were stable and consistent with previously published papers on football players. During the competition, amphetamine was detected in a sample collected on a player who had a therapeutic use exemption for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The blood passport data showed no significant difference in haemoglobin values between out-of-competition and postmatch samples. CONCLUSIONS: Logistical issues linked to biological samples collection, and the overseas shipment during the World Cup did not impair the quality of the analyses, especially when used as the biological passport of football players.

Biogeographic origin and radiation of the Old World crocidurine shrews (Mammalia: Soricidae) inferred from mitochondrial and nuclear genes.

The crocidurine shrews include the most speciose genus of mammals, Crocidura. The origin and evolution of their radiation is, however, poorly understood because of very scant fossil records and a rather conservative external morphology between species. Here, we use an alignment of 3560 base pairs of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA to generate a phylogenetic hypothesis for the evolution of Old World shrews of the subfamily Crocidurinae. These molecular data confirm the monophyly of the speciose African and Eurasian Crocidura, which also includes the fossorial, monotypic genus Diplomesodon. The phylogenetic reconstructions give further credit to a paraphyletic position of Suncus shrews, which are placed into at least two independent clades (one in Africa and sister to Sylvisorex and one in Eurasia), at the base of the Crocidura radiation. Therefore, we recommend restricting the genus Suncus to the Palaearctic and Oriental taxa, and to consider all the African Suncus as Sylvisorex. Using molecular dating and biogeographic reconstruction analyses, we suggest a Palaearctic-Oriental origin for Crocidura dating back to the Upper Miocene (6.8 million years ago) and several subsequent colonisations of the Afrotropical region by independent lineages of Crocidura.

Characterization of a Plasmodium falciparum mutant that has deleted the majority of the gametocyte-specific Pf11-1 locus

We identified a gametocyte-specific protein of Plasmodium falciparum called Pf11-1 and provide experimental evidence that this molecule is involved in the emergence of gametes of the infected erythrocyte (gametogenesis). A mutant parasite clone, which has deleted over 90% of the PF11-1 gene locus, was an important control to establish the gametocyte-specific expression of the Pf11-1. Molecular analysis of the Pf11-1 deletion indicates that it is presumably due a chromosome breakage with subsequent "healing" by the addition of telomeric heptanucleotides. Moreover, similar DNA rearrangements are observed in most of the laboratory isolates during asexual propagation in vitro.

Public particiation and the legitimacy of intergovernmental decision-making : a focus on the World Trade Organization

The legitimacy of the WTO's decision-making process has always been questioned, and many have advocated public participation mechanisms as a remedy. The present study considers the limits and potential of these mechanisms by advancing a conceptual framework, which distinguishes the four 'implementation parameters' of public participation: the goal, the object, the modalities, and the actors. It addresses the issue of legitimacy by considering to what extent, and by virtue of which legal developments, one can see implementing the democratic principle as a goal for public participation in the context of the WTO. By analyzing the institutional structure of the WTO and its different types of decisions, it then outlines how this goal should influence the object and modalities of public participation, which decision-making procedures should be opened to public participation, and how the mechanisms should be implemented in practice. Finally, it suggests speciflrc amendments to existing WTO affangements on public participation