Computational modes and grid imprinting on five quasi-uniform spherical C-grids

Currently, most operational forecasting models use latitude-longitude grids, whose convergence of meridians towards the poles limits parallel scaling. Quasi-uniform grids might avoid this limitation. Thuburn et al, JCP, 2009 and Ringler et al, JCP, 2010 have developed a method for arbitrarily-structured, orthogonal C-grids (TRiSK), which has many of the desirable properties of the C-grid on latitude-longitude grids but which works on a variety of quasi-uniform grids. Here, five quasi-uniform, orthogonal grids of the sphere are investigated using TRiSK to solve the shallow-water equations. We demonstrate some of the advantages and disadvantages of the hexagonal and triangular icosahedra, a Voronoi-ised cubed sphere, a Voronoi-ised skipped latitude-longitude grid and a grid of kites in comparison to a full latitude-longitude grid. We will show that the hexagonal-icosahedron gives the most accurate results (for least computational cost). All of the grids suffer from spurious computational modes; this is especially true of the kite grid, despite it having exactly twice as many velocity degrees of freedom as height degrees of freedom. However, the computational modes are easiest to control on the hexagonal icosahedron since they consist of vorticity oscillations on the dual grid which can be controlled using a diffusive advection scheme for potential vorticity.

Controlling the computational modes of the arbitrarily structured C-grid

The arbitrarily structured C-grid, TRiSK (Thuburn, Ringler, Skamarock and Klemp, 2009, 2010) is being used in the ``Model for Prediction Across Scales'' (MPAS) and is being considered by the UK Met Office for their next dynamical core. However the hexagonal C-grid supports a branch of spurious Rossby modes which lead to erroneous grid-scale oscillations of potential vorticity (PV). It is shown how these modes can be harmlessly controlled by using upwind-biased interpolation schemes for PV. A number of existing advection schemes for PV are tested, including that used in MPAS, and none are found to give adequate results for all grids and all cases. Therefore a new scheme is proposed; continuous, linear-upwind stabilised transport (CLUST), a blend between centred and linear-upwind with the blend dependent on the flow direction with respect to the cell edge. A diagnostic of grid-scale oscillations is proposed which gives further discrimination between schemes than using potential enstrophy alone and indeed some schemes are found to destroy potential enstrophy while grid-scale oscillations grow. CLUST performs well on hexagonal-icosahedral grids and unrotated skipped latitude-longitude grids of the sphere for various shallow water test cases. Despite the computational modes, the hexagonal icosahedral grid performs well since these modes are easy and harmless to filter. As a result TRiSK appears to perform better than a spectral shallow water model.

Validation of ACE-FTS satellite data in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using non-coincident measurements

CO, O3, and H2O data in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer(ACE-FTS) on Canada’s SCISAT-1 satellite are validated using aircraft and ozonesonde measurements. In the UTLS, validation of chemical trace gas measurements is a challenging task due to small-scale variability in the tracer fields, strong gradients of the tracers across the tropopause, and scarcity of measurements suitable for validation purposes. Validation based on coincidences therefore suffers from geophysical noise. Two alternative methods for the validation of satellite data are introduced, which avoid the usual need for coincident measurements: tracer-tracer correlations, and vertical tracer profiles relative to tropopause height. Both are increasingly being used for model validation as they strongly suppress geophysical variability and thereby provide an “instantaneous climatology”. This allows comparison of measurements between non-coincident data sets which yields information about the precision and a statistically meaningful error-assessment of the ACE-FTS satellite data in the UTLS. By defining a trade-off factor, we show that the measurement errors can be reduced by including more measurements obtained over a wider longitude range into the comparison, despite the increased geophysical variability. Applying the methods then yields the following upper bounds to the relative differences in the mean found between the ACE-FTS and SPURT aircraft measurements in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS), respectively: for CO ±9% and ±12%, for H2O ±30% and ±18%, and for O3 ±25% and ±19%. The relative differences for O3 can be narrowed down by using a larger dataset obtained from ozonesondes, yielding a high bias in the ACEFTS measurements of 18% in the UT and relative differences of ±8% for measurements in the LS. When taking into account the smearing effect of the vertically limited spacing between measurements of the ACE-FTS instrument, the relative differences decrease by 5–15% around the tropopause, suggesting a vertical resolution of the ACE-FTS in the UTLS of around 1 km. The ACE-FTS hence offers unprecedented precision and vertical resolution for a satellite instrument, which will allow a new global perspective on UTLS tracer distributions.

Effects of Thomson-scattering geometry on white-light imaging of an interplanetary shock: synthetic observations from forward magnetohydrodynamic modelling

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time–elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east–west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarisation. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarised brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120°E and between 20/30°N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model

We compare the characteristics of synthetic European droughts generated by the HiGEM1 coupled climate model run with present day atmospheric composition with observed drought events extracted from the CRU TS3 data set. The results demonstrate consistency in both the rate of drought occurrence and the spatiotemporal structure of the events. Estimates of the probability density functions for event area, duration and severity are shown to be similar with confidence > 90%. Encouragingly, HiGEM is shown to replicate the extreme tails of the observed distributions and thus the most damaging European drought events. The soil moisture state is shown to play an important role in drought development. Once a large-scale drought has been initiated it is found to be 50% more likely to continue if the local soil moisture is below the 40th percentile. In response to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2, the modelled droughts are found to increase in duration, area and severity. The drought response can be largely attributed to temperature driven changes in relative humidity. 1 HiGEM is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadGEM1) with the horizontal resolution increased to 1.25 x 0.83 degrees in longitude and latitude in the atmosphere and 1/3 x 1/3 degrees in the ocean.

Prediction of a typhoon using a fine-mesh NWP model

The ECMWF operational grid point model (with a resolution of 1.875° of latitude and longitude) and its limited area version (with a resolution of !0.47° of latitude and longitude) with boundary values from the global model have been used to study the simulation of the typhoon Tip. The fine-mesh model was capable of simulating the main structural features of the typhoon and predicting a fall in central pressure of 60 mb in 3 days. The structure of the forecast typhoon, with a warm core (maximum potential temperature anomaly 17 K). intense swirling wind (maximum 55 m s-1 at 850 mb) and spiralling precipitation patterns is characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Comparison with the lower resolution forecast shows that the horizontal resolution is a determining factor in predicting not only the structure and intensity but even the movement of these vortices. However, an accurate and refined initial analysis is considered to be a prerequisite for a correct forecast of this phenomenon.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Highly resolved observations of trace gases in the lowermost stratosphere and upper troposphere from the SPURT project: an overview

During SPURT (Spurenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region) we performed measurements of a wide range of trace gases with different lifetimes and sink/source characteristics in the northern hemispheric upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LMS). A large number of in-situ instruments were deployed on board a Learjet 35A, flying at altitudes up to 13.7 km, at times reaching to nearly 380 K potential temperature. Eight measurement campaigns (consisting of a total of 36 flights), distributed over all seasons and typically covering latitudes between 35° N and 75° N in the European longitude sector (10° W–20° E), were performed. Here we present an overview of the project, describing the instrumentation, the encountered meteorological situations during the campaigns and the data set available from SPURT. Measurements were obtained for N2O, CH4, CO, CO2, CFC12, H2, SF6, NO, NOy, O3 and H2O. We illustrate the strength of this new data set by showing mean distributions of the mixing ratios of selected trace gases, using a potential temperature-equivalent latitude coordinate system. The observations reveal that the LMS is most stratospheric in character during spring, with the highest mixing ratios of O3 and NOy and the lowest mixing ratios of N2O and SF6. The lowest mixing ratios of NOy and O3 are observed during autumn, together with the highest mixing ratios of N2O and SF6 indicating a strong tropospheric influence. For H2O, however, the maximum concentrations in the LMS are found during summer, suggesting unique (temperature- and convection-controlled) conditions for this molecule during transport across the tropopause. The SPURT data set is presently the most accurate and complete data set for many trace species in the LMS, and its main value is the simultaneous measurement of a suite of trace gases having different lifetimes and physical-chemical histories. It is thus very well suited for studies of atmospheric transport, for model validation, and for investigations of seasonal changes in the UT/LMS, as demonstrated in accompanying and elsewhere published studies.

A twenty-year independent record of sea surface temperature for climate from Along-track Scanning Radiometers

A new record of sea surface temperature (SST) for climate applications is described. This record provides independent corroboration of global variations estimated from SST measurements made in situ. Infrared imagery from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is used to create a 20 year time series of SST at 0.1° latitude-longitude resolution, in the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) project. A very high degree of independence of in situ measurements is achieved via physics-based techniques. Skin SST and SST estimated for 20 cm depth are provided, with grid cell uncertainty estimates. Comparison with in situ data sets establishes that ARC SSTs generally have bias of order 0.1 K or smaller. The precision of the ARC SSTs is 0.14 K during 2003 to 2009, from three-way error analysis. Over the period 1994 to 2010, ARC SSTs are stable, with better than 95% confidence, to within 0.005 K yr−1(demonstrated for tropical regions). The data set appears useful for cleanly quantifying interannual variability in SST and major SST anomalies. The ARC SST global anomaly time series is compared to the in situ-based Hadley Centre SST data set version 3 (HadSST3). Within known uncertainties in bias adjustments applied to in situ measurements, the independent ARC record and HadSST3 present the same variations in global marine temperature since 1996. Since the in situ observing system evolved significantly in its mix of measurement platforms and techniques over this period, ARC SSTs provide an important corroboration that HadSST3 accurately represents recent variability and change in this essential climate variable.

Sea surface temperature from a geostationary satellite by optimal estimation

Optimal estimation (OE) is applied as a technique for retrieving sea surface temperature (SST) from thermal imagery obtained by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) on Meteosat 9. OE requires simulation of observations as part of the retrieval process, and this is done here using numerical weather prediction fields and a fast radiative transfer model. Bias correction of the simulated brightness temperatures (BTs) is found to be a necessary step before retrieval, and is achieved by filtered averaging of simulations minus observations over a time period of 20 days and spatial scale of 2.5° in latitude and longitude. Throughout this study, BT observations are clear-sky averages over cells of size 0.5° in latitude and longitude. Results for the OE SST are compared to results using a traditional non-linear retrieval algorithm (“NLSST”), both validated against a set of 30108 night-time matches with drifting buoy observations. For the OE SST the mean difference with respect to drifter SSTs is − 0.01 K and the standard deviation is 0.47 K, compared to − 0.38 K and 0.70 K respectively for the NLSST algorithm. Perhaps more importantly, systematic biases in NLSST with respect to geographical location, atmospheric water vapour and satellite zenith angle are greatly reduced for the OE SST. However, the OE SST is calculated to have a lower sensitivity of retrieved SST to true SST variations than the NLSST. This feature would be a disadvantage for observing SST fronts and diurnal variability, and raises questions as to how best to exploit OE techniques at SEVIRI's full spatial resolution.

Optimal estimation of sea surface temperature from split-window observations

Optimal estimation (OE) improves sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from satellite infrared imagery in the “split-window”, in comparison to SST retrieved using the usual multi-channel (MCSST) or non-linear (NLSST) estimators. This is demonstrated using three months of observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the first Meteorological Operational satellite (Metop-A), matched in time and space to drifter SSTs collected on the global telecommunications system. There are 32,175 matches. The prior for the OE is forecast atmospheric fields from the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction system (ARPEGE), the forward model is RTTOV8.7, and a reduced state vector comprising SST and total column water vapour (TCWV) is used. Operational NLSST coefficients give mean and standard deviation (SD) of the difference between satellite and drifter SSTs of 0.00 and 0.72 K. The “best possible” NLSST and MCSST coefficients, empirically regressed on the data themselves, give zero mean difference and SDs of 0.66 K and 0.73 K respectively. Significant contributions to the global SD arise from regional systematic errors (biases) of several tenths of kelvin in the NLSST. With no bias corrections to either prior fields or forward model, the SSTs retrieved by OE minus drifter SSTs have mean and SD of − 0.16 and 0.49 K respectively. The reduction in SD below the “best possible” regression results shows that OE deals with structural limitations of the NLSST and MCSST algorithms. Using simple empirical bias corrections to improve the OE, retrieved minus drifter SSTs are obtained with mean and SD of − 0.06 and 0.44 K respectively. Regional biases are greatly reduced, such that the absolute bias is less than 0.1 K in 61% of 10°-latitude by 30°-longitude cells. OE also allows a statistic of the agreement between modelled and measured brightness temperatures to be calculated. We show that this measure is more efficient than the current system of confidence levels at identifying reliable retrievals, and that the best 75% of satellite SSTs by this measure have negligible bias and retrieval error of order 0.25 K.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales