991 resultados para Long term evaluation


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In the middle of the so-called pension crisis, the ageing of population and the sharp decrease in affiliations to Social Security are threatening the well-functioning of the Spanish public pension system. The purpose of this paper is to present the main challenges to be faced by the Spanish pension system, as well as to shed light on the main determinants that will condition the evolution of pension expenditure over GDP along the following decades. This quantitative analysis, which considers the 2011 and 2013 pension reforms, uses the latest data on the Spanish demographic, labor market and institutional factors in order to project the evolution of the system from the expenditure side up to 2060. For the purpose of analyzing the dynamics and the underlying drivers of pension expenditure, the so-called aggregate accounting approach will be utilized. The alternative scenarios proposed allow for exploring the robustness of the results within the baseline scenario, which constitutes the reference point of projections in the exercise. The analysis concludes that, by the end of the projected period, Spain will count on a similar public pension expenditure ratio as the current one.

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Genetic structure and average long-term connectivity and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) sampled from offshore localities in the U.S. Caribbean and the Florida Keys were assessed by using nuclear-encoded microsatellites and a fragment of mitochondrial DNA. No significant differences in allele, genotype (microsatellites), or haplotype (mtDNA) distributions were detected; tests of selective neutrality (mtDNA) were nonsignificant after Bonferroni correction. Heuristic estimates of average long-term rate of migration (proportion of migrant individuals/generation) between geographically adjacent localities varied from 0.0033 to 0.0054, indicating that local subpopulations could respond independently of environmental perturbations. Estimates of average longterm effective population sizes varied from 341 to 1066 and differed significantly among several of the localities. These results indicate that over time larval drift and interregional adult movement may not be sufficient to maintain population sustainability across the region and that there may be different demographic stocks at some of the localities studied. The estimate of long-term effective population size at the locality offshore of St. Croix was below the minimum threshold size considered necessary to maintain the equilibrium between the loss of adaptive genetic variance from genetic drift and its replacement by mutation. Genetic variability in mutton snapper likely is maintained at the intraregional level by aggregate spawning and random mating of local populations. This feature is perhaps ironic in that aggregate spawning also renders mutton snapper especially vulnerable to overexploitation.

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The health status of premature infants born 32(1)-35(0) weeks' gestational age (wGA) hospitalized for RSV infection in the first year of life (cases; n = 125) was compared to that of premature infants not hospitalized for RSV (controls; n = 362) through 6 years. The primary endpoints were the percentage of children with wheezing between 2-6 years and lung function at 6 years of age. Secondary endpoints included quality of life, healthcare resource use, and allergic sensitization. A significantly higher proportion of cases than controls experienced recurrent wheezing through 6 years of age (46.7% vs. 27.4%; p = 0.001). The vast majority of lung function tests appeared normal at 6 years of age in both cohorts. In children with pulmonary function in the lower limit of normality (FEV1 Z-score [-2; -1]), wheezing was increased, particularly for cases vs. controls (72.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.002). Multivariate analysis revealed the most important factor for wheezing was RSV hospitalization. Quality of life on the respiratory subscale of the TAPQOL was significantly lower (p = 0.001) and healthcare resource utilization was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cases than controls. This study confirms RSV disease is associated with wheezing in 32-35 wGA infants through 6 years of age.

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Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6E has recently been described, but its long-term epidemiology is not well known. From 1981-2013, 704 serogroup 6 clinical isolates were obtained in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. All invasive and one in four non-invasive isolates were included. Overall, 75, 97, 51 and 45 serotypes 6A, 6B, 6C and 6E isolates, respectively, were detected. No serotype 6D isolates were identified. The prevalence of serotypes 6E and 6B, but not that of serotypes 6A and 6C, declined after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Serotype 6E isolates showed the highest resistance rate. Most serotype 6E isolates were ST90.

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Long-term trends in the elasmobranch assemblage of Elkhorn Slough, Monterey Bay, California, were analyzed by documenting species composition and catch per unit effort (CPUE) from 55 sport fishing derbies that occurred during May, June, and July, from 1951 until 1995. The most abundant species (bat ray, Myliobatis californica; shovelnose guitarfish, Rhinobatos productus; and leopard shark, Triakis semifasciata) were also analyzed for size-weight relationships, trends in size class distribution, stage of maturity, and sex ratios. Changes in species composition over the course of the derbies included the near complete disappearance of shovelnose guitarfish by the 1970’s and a slight increase in the abundance of minor species (mainly smoothhounds, Mustelus spp., and thornback, Platyrhinoidis triseriata) starting in the mid 1960’s. The relative abundance of bat rays in the catch steadily increased over the years while the relative abundance of leopard sharks declined during the last two decades. However the average number of bat rays and leopard sharks caught per derby declined during the last two decades. Fishing effort appeared to increase over the course of the derbies. There were no dramatic shifts in the size class distribution data for bat rays, leopard sharks, or shovelnose guitarfish. The catch of bat rays and leopard sharks was consistently dominated by immature individuals, while the catch of shovelnose guitarfish was heavily dominated by adults. There was evidence of sexual segregation in either immature or mature fish in all the species. Female bat rays and shovelnose guitarfish were larger than their male counterparts and outnumbered males nearly 2:1. Female and male leopard sharks were more nearly equal in size and sex ratio. Changes in species composition are likely due to fishing pressure, shifts in the prevailing oceanographic conditions, and habitat alteration in Elkhorn Slough. The sex ratios, stage of maturity, and size class distributions provide further evidence for the theory that Elkhorn Slough functions as a nursery habitat for bat rays and leopard sha

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This paper provides an overview of Hawaii's marine fisheries from 1948 to the present. After three decades of decline following a brief period of growth at the conclusion to World War lI, Hawaii's commercial fisheries began a decade of sustained development in the 1980's. At the same time, fisheries management issues became more significant as different segments of the fishery came into more direct competition. This paper provides new estimates of commercial landings for the 1977-90 period, and summarizes limited information on recreational and subsistence fisheries in the 1980's. It also provides some historical context which may be useful in evaluating fishery development and management options.