On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Use of the mini nutritional assessment tool in elderly people from long-term institutions of southeast of Brazil

Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.

Long-term regulation of vacuolar H(+)-ATPase by angiotensin II in proximal tubule cells

Long-term effects of angiotensin II (Ang II) on vacuolar H(+)-ATPase were studied in a SV40-transformed cell line derived from rat proximal tubules (IRPTC). Using pH(i) measurements with the fluorescent dye BCECF, the hormone increased Na(+)-independent pH recovery rate from an NH(4)Cl pulse from 0.066 +/- 0.014 pH U/min (n = 7) to 0.14 +/- 0.021 pH U/min (n = 13; p < 0.05) in 10 h Ang II (10(-9) M)-treated cells. The increased activity of H(+)-ATPase did not involve changes in mRNA or protein abundance of the B2 subunit but increased cell surface expression of the V-ATPase. Inhibition of tyrosine kinase by genistein blocked Ang II-dependent stimulation of H(+)-ATPase. Inhibition of phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K) by wortmannin and of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by SB 203580 also blocked this effect. Thus, long-term exposure of IRPTC cells to Ang II causes upregulation of H(+)-ATPase activity due, at least in part, to increased B2 cell surface expression. This regulatory pathway is dependent on mechanisms involving tyrosine kinase, p38 MAPK, and PI3K activation.

Long-Term Culture of Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Adherent Neurospheres and Functional Neurons

Innumerous protocols, using the mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells as model for in vitro study of neurons functional properties and features, have been developed. Most of these protocols are short lasting, which, therefore, does not allow a careful analysis of the neurons maturation, aging, and death processes. We describe here a novel and efficient long-lasting protocol for in vitro ES cells differentiation into neuronal cells. It consists of obtaining embryoid bodies, followed by induction of neuronal differentiation with retinoic acid of nonadherent embryoid bodies (three-dimensional model), which further allows their adherence and formation of adherent neurospheres (AN, bi-dimensional model). The AN can be maintained for at least 12 weeks in culture under repetitive mechanical splitting, providing a constant microenvironment (in vitro niche) for the neuronal progenitor cells avoiding mechanical dissociation of AN. The expression of neuron-specific proteins, such as nestin, sox1, beta III-tubulin, microtubule-associated protein 2, neurofilament medium protein, Tau, neuronal nuclei marker, gamma-aminobutyric acid, and 5-hydroxytryptamine, were confirmed in these cells maintained during 3 months under several splitting. Additionally, expression pattern of microtubule-associated proteins, such as lissencephaly (Lis1) and nuclear distribution element-like (Ndel1), which were shown to be essential for differentiation and migration of neurons during embryogenesis, was also studied. As expected, both proteins were expressed in undifferentiated ES cells, AN, and nonrosette neurons, although presenting different spatial distribution in AN. In contrast to previous studies, using cultured neuronal cells derived from embryonic and adult tissues, only Ndel1 expression was observed in the centrosome region of early neuroblasts from AN. Mature neurons, obtained from ES cells in this work, display ionic channels and oscillations of membrane electrical potential typical of electrically excitable cells, which is a characteristic feature of the functional central nervous system (CNS) neurons. Taken together, our study demonstrated that AN are a long-term culture of neuronal cells that can be used to analyze the process of neuronal differentiation dynamics. Thus, the protocol described here provides a new experimental model for studying neurological diseases associated with neuronal differentiation during early development, as well as it represents a novel source of functional cells that can be used as tools for testing the effects of toxins and/or drugs on neuronal cells.

Different mechanisms underlie the effects of acute and long-term inhibition of nitric oxide synthases in antigen-induced pulmonary eosinophil recruitment in BALB/C mice

Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibitors are largely used to evaluate the NO contribution to pulmonary allergy, but contrasting data have been reported. In this study, pharmacological, biochemical and pharmacokinetic assays were performed to compare the effects of acute and long-term treatment of BALB/C mice with the non-selective NOS inhibitor L-NAME in ovalbumin (OVA)-challenged mice. Acute L-NAME treatment (50 mg/kg, gavage) significantly reduced the eosinophil number in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). The inducible NOS (iNOS) inhibitor aminoguanidine (20 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) also significantly reduced the eosinophil number in BALF In contrast, 3-week L-NAME treatment (50 and 150 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) significantly increased the pulmonary eosinophil influx. The constitutive NOS (cNOS) activity in brain and lungs was reduced by both acute and 3-week L-NAME treatments. The pulmonary iNOS activity was reduced by acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine), but unaffected by 3-week L-NAME treatment. Acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine) treatment was more efficient to reduce the NO(x) levels compared with 3-week L-NAME treatment. The pharmacokinetic study revealed that L-NAME is not bioavailable when given orally. After acute L-NAME intake, serum concentrations of the metabolite N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine decreased from 30 min to 24 h. In the 3-week L-NAME treatment, the N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentration was close to the detection limit. In conclusion, 3-week treatment with L-NAME yields low serum N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentrations, causing preferential inhibition of cNOS activity. Therefore, eosinophil influx potentiation by 3-week L-NAME treatment may reflect removal of protective cNOS-derived NO, with no interference on the ongoing inflammation due to iNOS-derived NO. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms underlying the long-term regulation of NHE3 by parathyroid hormone

The activity of the Na(+)/H(+) exchanger NHE3 is regulated by a number of factors including parathyroid hormone (PTH). In the current study, we used a renal epithelial cell line, the opossum kidney (OKP) cell, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the long-term effects of PTH on NHE3 transport activity and expression. We observed that NHE3 activity was reduced 6 h after addition of PTH, and this reduction persisted almost unaltered after 24 h. The decrease in activity was associated with diminished NHE3 cell surface expression at 6, 16, and 24 h after PTH addition, total cellular NHE3 protein at 16 and 24 h, and NHE3 mRNA abundance at 24 h. The lower levels of NHE3 mRNA were associated to a small, but significant, decrease in mRNA stability. Additionally, by analyzing the rat NHE3 gene promoter activity in OKP cells, we verified that the regulatory region spanning the segment -152 to +55 was mildly reduced under the influence of PTH. This effect was completely abolished by the presence of the PKA inhibitor KT 5720. In conclusion, long-term exposure to PTH results in reduction of NHE3 mRNA levels due to a PKA-dependent inhibitory effect on the NHE3 promoter and a small reduction of mRNA half-life, and decrease in the total amount of protein which is preceded by endocytosis of the apical surface NHE3. The decreased NHE3 expression is likely to be responsible for the reduction of sodium, bicarbonate, and fluid reabsorption in the proximal tubule consistently perceived in experimental models of PTH disorders.

Coronary reserve impairment prevents the improvement of left ventricular dysfunction and adversely affects the long-term outcome of patients with hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy

In hypertension, left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy develops as an adaptive mechanism to compensate for increased afterload and thus preserve systolic function. Associated structural changes such as microvascular disease might potentially interfere with this mechanism, producing pathological hypertrophy. A poorer outcome is expected to occur when LV function is put in jeopardy by impaired coronary reserve. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of coronary reserve in the long-term outcome of patients with hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy. Between 1996 and 2000, 45 patients, 30 of them male, with 52 +/- 11 years and LV fractional shortening <30% were enrolled and followed until 2006. Coronary flow velocity reserve was assessed by transesophageal Doppler of the left anterior descending coronary artery. Sixteen patients showed >= 10% improvement in LV fractional shortening after 17 +/- 6 months. Coronary reserve was the only variable independently related to this improvement. Total mortality was 38% in 10 years. The Cox model identified coronary reserve (hazard ratio = 0.814; 95% CI = 0.72-0.92), LV mass, low diastolic blood pressure, and male gender as independent predictors of mortality. In hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy, coronary reserve impairment adversely affects survival, possibly by interfering with the improvement of LV dysfunction. J Am Soc Hypertens 2010;4(1):14-21. (C) 2010 American Society of Hypertension. All rights reserved.

The long wavelength limit of hard thermal loop effective actions

We derive a closed form expression for the long wavelength limit of the effective action for hard thermal loops in an external gravitational field. It is a function of the metric, independent of time derivatives. It is compared and contrasted with the static limit, and with the corresponding limits in an external Yang-Mills field. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Overdetermination in a marxian theory of money

O presente artigo focaliza a genérica e abstrata análise monetária desenvolvida por Marx no inicio do Capital. Mais precisamente, pretende-se avaliar em que medida, se alguma, alguns aspectos da análise de Marx sobre o papel bastante contraditório desempenhado pela moeda no processo de circulação simples de mercadorias suportam uma interpretação sobre-determinista do método dialético por ele empregado. Baseando-se no conceito de sobre-determinação introduzido na literature Marxiana principalmente por Louis Althusser, o artigo conclui que o nexo real-monetário prevalecente na circulação simples de mercadorias pode ser concebida como um nexo sobre-determinado, ou seja, um nexo caracterizado por incorporar um regime de constitutividade.

Limited memory and the essentiality of money

This paper investigates the relationship between memory and the essentiality of money. We consider a random matching economy with a large finite population in which commitment is not possible and memory is limited in the sense that only a fraction m E(0; 1) of the population has publicly observable histories. We show that no matter how limited memory is, there exists a social norm that achieves the first best regardless of the population size. In other words, money can fail to be essential irrespective of the amount of memory in the economy. This suggests that the emphasis on limited memory as a fundamental friction for money to be essential deserves a deeper examination.

Microeconomic instability and children's human capital accumulation: the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to father's income on child labor, school drop-outs and repetition rates in Brazil

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of economic instability. In particular, we study the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to father’s income on children’s human capital accumulation variables such as school drop-outs, repetition rates and domestic and non-domestic labor. Although, the problem of child labor in Brazil has declined greatly during the last decade, the number of children working is still substantial. The low levels of educational attainment in Brazil are also a main cause for concern. The large rotating panel data set used allows for the estimation of the impacts of changes in occupational and income status of fathers on changes in his child’s time allocation circumstances. The empirical analysis is restricted to families with fathers, mothers and at least one child between 10 and 15 years of age in the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the 1982-1999 period. We perform logistic regressions controlling for child characteristics (gender, age, if he/she is behind in school for age), parents characteristics (grade attainment and income) and time and location variables. The main variables analyzed are dynamic proxies of impulses and responses, namely: shocks to household head’s income and unemployment status, on the one hand and child’s probability of dropping out of school, of repeating a grade and of start working, on the other. The findings suggest that father’s income has a significant positive correlation with child’s dropping out of school and of repeating a grade. The findings do not suggest a significant relationship between a father’s becoming unemployed and a child entering the non-domestic labor market. However, the results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between a father becoming unemployed and a child beginning to work in domestic labor. There was also a positive correlation between father becoming unemployed and a child dropping out and repeating a grade. Both gender and age were highly significant with boys and older children being more likely to work, drop-out and repeat grades.

Coordination in the use of money

Fundamental models of money, while explicit about the frictions that render money essential, are silent on how agents actually coordinate in its use. This paper studies this coordination problem, providing an endogenous map between the primitives of the environment and the beliefs on the acceptability of money. We show that an increase in the frequency of trade meetings, besides its direct impact on payo¤s, facilitates coordination. In particular, for a large enough frequency of trade meetings, agents always coordinate in the use of money.

The macroeconomics of price adjustments under information frictions and menu costs

Esta tese se dedica ao estudo de modelos de fixação de preços e suas implicações macroeconômicas. Nos primeiros dois capítulos analiso modelos em que as decisões das firmas sobre seus preços praticados levam em conta custos de menu e de informação. No Capítulo 1 eu estimo tais modelos empregando estatísticas de variações de preços dos Estados Unidos, e concluo que: os custos de informação são significativamente maiores que os custos de menu; os dados claramente favorecem o modelo em que informações sobre condições agregadas são custosas enquanto que as idiossincráticas têm custo zero. No Capítulo 2 investigo as consequências de choques monetários e anúncios de desinflação usando os modelos previamente estimados. Mostro que o grau de não-neutralidade monetária é maior no modelo em que parte da informação é grátis. O Capítulo 3 é um artigo em conjunto com Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio) e Antonella Tutino (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). No artigo examinamos um modelo de fixação de preços em que firmas estão sujeitas a uma restrição de fluxo de informação do tipo Shannon. Calibramos o modelo e estudamos funções impulso-resposta a choques idiossincráticos e agregados. Mostramos que as firmas vão preferir processar informações agregadas e idiossincráticas conjuntamente ao invés de investigá-las separadamente. Este tipo de processamento gera ajustes de preços mais frequentes, diminuindo a persistência de efeitos reais causados por choques monetários.

Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default

This dissertation analyses quantitatively the costs of sovereign default for the economy, in a model where banks with long positions in government debt play a central role in the financial intermediation for private sector's investments and face financial frictions that limit their leverage ability. Calibration tries to resemble some features of the Eurozone, where discussions about bailout schemes and default risk have been central issues. Results show that the model captures one important cost of default pointed out by empirical and theoretical literature on debt crises, namely the fall in investment that follows haircut episodes, what can be explained by a worsening in banks' balance sheet conditions that limits credit for the private sector and raises their funding costs. The cost in terms of output decrease is though not significant enough to justify the existence of debt markets and the government incentives for debt repayment. Assuming that the government is able to alleviate its constrained budget by imposing a restructuring on debt repayment profile that allows it to cut taxes, our model generates an important difference for output path comparing lump-sum taxes and distortionary. For our calibration, quantitative results show that in terms of output and utility, it is possible that the effect on the labour supply response generated by tax cuts dominates investment drop caused by credit crunch on financial markets. We however abstract from default costs associated to the breaking of existing contracts, external sanctions and risk spillovers between countries, that might also be relevant in addition to financial disruption effects. Besides, there exist considerable trade-offs for short and long run path of economic variables related to government and banks' behaviour.