983 resultados para Log-gamma generalized distribution


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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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The Sahara Desert is the largest source of mineral dust in the world. Emissions of African dust increased sharply in the early 1970s, a change that has been attributed mainly to drought in the Sahara/Sahel region caused by changes in the global distribution of sea surface temperature. The human contribution to land degradation and dust mobilization in this region remains poorly understood, owing to the paucity of data that would allow the identification of long-term trends in desertification. Direct measurements of airborne African dust concentrations only became available in the mid-1960s from a station on Barbados and subsequently from satellite imagery since the late 1970s: they do not cover the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region ~170 years ago. Here we construct a 3,200-year record of dust deposition off northwest Africa by investigating the chemistry and grain-size distribution of terrigenous sediments deposited at a marine site located directly under the West African dust plume. With the help of our dust record and a proxy record for West African precipitation we find that, on the century scale, dust deposition is related to precipitation in tropical West Africa until the seventeenth century. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, a sharp increase in dust deposition parallels the advent of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Our findings suggest that human-induced dust emissions from the Sahel region have contributed to the atmospheric dust load for about 200 years.

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Natural radionuclides and man-made 137Cs were analyzed in five short sediment cores taken in northern part of the Gulf of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba) in order to provide information on sedimentation and mixing rates and sediment sources. The maximum estimates of sedimentation rates based on excess 210Pb were found to vary between 0.105 ± 0.020 and 0.35 ± 0.23 cm · year**-1. Even the lowest estimates are significantly higher than those expected from dust deposition, suggesting other sources and processes being responsible for most of the allochthonous material accumulation, including periodical floods following heavy rain events, internal erosion or triggers, like earthquakes. In 137Cs depth profiles no 1963 related nuclear weapon test maxima were found; instead, the activities decrease monotonically, suggesting that a major process leading to radionuclides' depth distribution might be mixing. The mixing rates calculated from 137Cs, excess 210Pb and excess 228Th reach values up to 2.18 ± 0.69 cm**2 · year**-1.

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Two years of harmonized aerosol number size distribution data from 24 European field monitoring sites have been analysed. The results give a comprehensive overview of the European near surface aerosol particle number concentrations and number size distributions between 30 and 500 nm of dry particle diameter. Spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols in the particle sizes most important for climate applications are presented. We also analyse the annual, weekly and diurnal cycles of the aerosol number concentrations, provide log-normal fitting parameters for median number size distributions, and give guidance notes for data users. Emphasis is placed on the usability of results within the aerosol modelling community. We also show that the aerosol number concentrations of Aitken and accumulation mode particles (with 100 nm dry diameter as a cut-off between modes) are related, although there is significant variation in the ratios of the modal number concentrations. Different aerosol and station types are distinguished from this data and this methodology has potential for further categorization of stations aerosol number size distribution types. The European submicron aerosol was divided into characteristic types: Central European aerosol, characterized by single mode median size distributions, unimodal number concentration histograms and low variability in CCN-sized aerosol number concentrations; Nordic aerosol with low number concentrations, although showing pronounced seasonal variation of especially Aitken mode particles; Mountain sites (altitude over 1000 m a.s.l.) with a strong seasonal cycle in aerosol number concentrations, high variability, and very low median number concentrations. Southern and Western European regions had fewer stations, which decreases the regional coverage of these results. Aerosol number concentrations over the Britain and Ireland had very high variance and there are indications of mixed air masses from several source regions; the Mediterranean aerosol exhibit high seasonality, and a strong accumulation mode in the summer. The greatest concentrations were observed at the Ispra station in Northern Italy with high accumulation mode number concentrations in the winter. The aerosol number concentrations at the Arctic station Zeppelin in Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard have also a strong seasonal cycle, with greater concentrations of accumulation mode particles in winter, and dominating summer Aitken mode indicating more recently formed particles. Observed particles did not show any statistically significant regional work-week or weekday related variation in number concentrations studied. Analysis products are made for open-access to the research community, available in a freely accessible internet site. The results give to the modelling community a reliable, easy-to-use and freely available comparison dataset of aerosol size distributions.

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In this study we propose the use of the performance measure distribution rather than its punctual value to rank hedge funds. Generalized Sharpe Ratio and other similar measures that take into account the higher-order moments of portfolio return distributions are commonly used to evaluate hedge funds performance. The literature in this field has reported non-significant difference in ranking between performance measures that take, and those that do not take, into account higher moments of distribution. Our approach provides a much more powerful manner to differentiate between hedge funds performance. We use a non-semiparametric density based on Gram-Charlier expansions to forecast the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns and its corresponding performance measure distribution. Through a forecasting exercise we show the advantages of our technique in relation to using the more traditional punctual performance measures.

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The Dirichlet distribution is a multivariate generalization of the Beta distribution. It is an important multivariate continuous distribution in probability and statistics. In this report, we review the Dirichlet distribution and study its properties, including statistical and information-theoretic quantities involving this distribution. Also, relationships between the Dirichlet distribution and other distributions are discussed. There are some different ways to think about generating random variables with a Dirichlet distribution. The stick-breaking approach and the Pólya urn method are discussed. In Bayesian statistics, the Dirichlet distribution and the generalized Dirichlet distribution can both be a conjugate prior for the Multinomial distribution. The Dirichlet distribution has many applications in different fields. We focus on the unsupervised learning of a finite mixture model based on the Dirichlet distribution. The Initialization Algorithm and Dirichlet Mixture Estimation Algorithm are both reviewed for estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet mixture. Three experimental results are shown for the estimation of artificial histograms, summarization of image databases and human skin detection.

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This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

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The short shelf life of mushrooms is a barrier for their distribution and, therefore, there has been extensive research to find technologies that ensure the preservation of mushrooms, maintaining their organoleptic and nutritional properties (1]. Irradiation has proved its technological feasibility to be safely used in the reduction of food losses, being recognized by international organizations as a valid conservation alternative in extending shelflife of many foods. The aim of the present work was to validate the use of 2 kGy dose of gamma radiation to maintain chemical composition of wild mushrooms. Boletus pinophilus Pihit & Dermek and Clitocybe subconnexa Murrill wild samples were obtained in Tnis-os-Montes; subsequently, the samples were divided in two groups: control (non-irradiated, 0 kGy) and irradiated (2 kGy). The irradiation of the samples was performed in a 6°Co experimental chamber. Moisture, protein, fat, carbohydrates and ash were determined following the standard procedures [2]. Free sugars and tocopherols were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled to a refraction index detector (HPLC-RI) and a fluorescence detector, respectively; fatty acids were determined by gas-liquid chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) [3]. The protein and ash content was preserved in both groups, although the sugars and tocopherols decreased in the irradiated samples. Sugars and fatty acids showed significant changes after irradiation treatment, particularly in B. pinophillus, nevertheless, the magnitude of the obtained differences did not seem to be sufficient to affect the chemical profiles of the assayed mushrooms. Overall, the detected chemical changes might be considered as allowable, in view of the high advantages offered by gamma irradiation at decontamination and/or disinfestation level.

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Boletus edulis Bull: Fr. is an edible mushroom quite appreciated for its organoleptic and nutritional properties. However, the seasonality and perishability cause some difficulties in its distribution and marketing in fresh form; losses associated with this type of food during marketing can reach 40% [1]. Irradiation is recognized as a safe and effective method for food preservation, being used worldwide to increase shelf life of fresh and dehydrated products (e.g. fruits, vegetables and spices) [2]. In particular, gamma irradiation has already been applied to cultivated mushrooms (especially Agaricus, Lentinula and Pleurotus Genus) and proved to be an interesting conservation technology [3]. However, the studies with added-value wild species are scarce. In this work, the effects of gamma irradiation on chemical and antioxidant properties of wild B. edulis, were evaluated. Fruiting bodies were obtained in Trás-os-Montes, in the Northeast of Portugal, in November 2012. The irradiation was performed in experimental equipment with 60Co sources at 1 and 2 kGy. All the results were compared with nonirradiated samples (control). Macronutrients and energy value were determined following official procedures of food analysis; fatty acids were analyzed by gas-chromatography coupled to flame ionization detection (GC-FID), while sugars and tocopherols were determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled to refraction index (RI) and fluorescence detectors, respectively. Antioxidant activity was evaluated in the methanolic extracts by in vitro assays measuring DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging activity, reducing power, inhibition of β- carotene bleaching and inhibition of lipid peroxidation using thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) assay. Total phenolics were also determined by the Folin-Ciocalteu assay. The nutritional profiles were not affected in high extension. Fatty acids and sugars were slightly affected, decreasing with the increasing doses. The performed assays for antioxidant activity, indicate that irradiated samples tended to have lower scavenging activity and reducing power, but higher lipid peroxidation inhibition. Despite the detected differences in individual compounds, the results of nutritional parameters, the most relevant in terms of mushroom acceptability by consumers, were less affected, indicating an interesting potential of gamma-irradiation to be used as an effective conservation technology for the studied mushrooms.

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The MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov) telescopes observed the BL Lac object H1722+119 (redshift unknown) for six consecutive nights between 2013 May 17 and 22, for a total of 12.5 h. The observations were triggered by high activity in the optical band measured by the KVA (Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien) telescope. The source was for the first time detected in the very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray band with a statistical significance of 5.9 σ. The integral flux above 150 GeV is estimated to be (2.0 ± 0.5) per cent of the Crab Nebula flux. We used contemporaneous high energy (HE, 100MeV < E < 100 GeV) γ-ray observations from Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) to estimate the redshift of the source. Within the framework of the current extragalactic background light models, we estimate the redshift to be z = 0.34±0.15. Additionally, we used contemporaneous X-ray to radio data collected by the instruments on board the Swift satellite, the KVA, and the OVRO (Owens Valley Radio Observatory) telescope to study multifrequency characteristics of the source. We found no significant temporal variability of the flux in the HE and VHE bands. The flux in the optical and radio wavebands, on the other hand, did vary with different patterns. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of H1722+119 shows surprising behaviour in the ∼ 3×1014 −1018 Hz frequency range. It can be modelled using an inhomogeneous helical jet synchrotron self-Compton model.

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Ɣ-ray bursts (GRBs) are the Universe's most luminous transient events. Since the discovery of GRBs was announced in 1973, efforts have been ongoing to obtain data over a broader range of the electromagnetic spectrum at the earliest possible times following the initial detection. The discovery of the theorized ``afterglow'' emission in radio through X-ray bands in the late 1990s confirmed the cosmological nature of these events. At present, GRB afterglows are among the best probes of the early Universe (z ≳ 9). In addition to informing theories about GRBs themselves, observations of afterglows probe the circum-burst medium (CBM), properties of the host galaxies and the progress of cosmic reionization. To explore the early-time variability of afterglows, I have developed a generalized analysis framework which models near-infrared (NIR), optical, ultra-violet (UV) and X-ray light curves without assuming an underlying model. These fits are then used to construct the spectral energy distribution (SED) of afterglows at arbitrary times within the observed window. Physical models are then used to explore the evolution of the SED parameter space with time. I demonstrate that this framework produces evidence of the photodestruction of dust in the CBM of GRB 120119A, similar to the findings from a previous study of this afterglow. The framework is additionally applied to the afterglows of GRB 140419A and GRB 080607. In these cases the evolution of the SEDs appears consistent with the standard fireball model. Having introduced the scientific motivations for early-time observations, I introduce the Rapid Infrared Imager-Spectrometer (RIMAS). Once commissioned on the 4.3 meter Discovery Channel Telescope (DCT), RIMAS will be used to study the afterglows of GRBs through photometric and spectroscopic observations beginning within minutes of the initial burst. The instrument will operate in the NIR, from 0.97 μm to 2.37 μm, permitting the detection of very high redshift (z ≳ 7) afterglows which are attenuated at shorter wavelengths by Lyman-ɑ absorption in the intergalactic medium (IGM). A majority of my graduate work has been spent designing and aligning RIMAS's cryogenic (~80 K) optical systems. Design efforts have included an original camera used to image the field surrounding spectroscopic slits, tolerancing and optimizing all of the instrument's optics, thermal modeling of optomechanical systems, and modeling the diffraction efficiencies for some of the dispersive elements. To align the cryogenic optics, I developed a procedure that was successfully used for a majority of the instrument's sub-assemblies. My work on this cryogenic instrument has necessitated experimental and computational projects to design and validate designs of several subsystems. Two of these projects describe simple and effective measurements of optomechanical components in vacuum and at cryogenic temperatures using an 8-bit CCD camera. Models of heat transfer via electrical harnesses used to provide current to motors located within the cryostat are also presented.

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The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

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The common use of phosphate fertilizers NPK and amendments in sugar cane crops in Brazilian agriculture may increase the Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 activity concentrations in soils and their availability for plants and human food chain. Thus, the main aim of this study was to evaluate the distribution of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 in soils and sugar cane crops in the Corumbatai river basin, São Paulo State, Brazil. The gamma spectrometry was utilized to measure the Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 activity concentration in all samples. The soil-to-sugar cane transfer factors (TF) were quantified using the ratio between the radionuclide activity concentration in sugar cane and its activity concentration in soil. The results show that, although radionuclides incorporated in phosphate fertilizers and amendments are annually added in the sugar cane crops, if utilized in accordance with the recommended rates, their use does not lead to hazards levels in soils. The soil-to-sugar cane transfer of radionuclides occurred in the following order K-40 > Ra-226 > Th-232. Therefore, under these conditions, radionuclides intake through consumption of sugar is not hazardous to human health. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.