Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

Zero-Time Kidney Histology Predicts Early Graft Function

Our purposes are to determine the impact of histological factors observed in zero-time biopsies on early post transplant kidney allograft function. We specifically want to compare the semi-quantitative Banff Classification of zero time biopsies with quantification of % cortical area fibrosis. Sixty three zero-time deceased donor allograft biopsies were retrospectively semiquantitatively scored using Banff classification. By adding the individual chronic parameters a Banff Chronic Sum (BCS) Score was generated. Percentage of cortical area Picro Sirius Red (%PSR) staining was assessed and calculated with a computer program. A negative linear regression between %PSR/ GFR at 3 year post-transplantation was established (Y=62.08 +-4.6412X; p=0.022). A significant negative correlation between arteriolar hyalinosis (rho=-0.375; p=0.005), chronic interstitial (rho=0.296; p=0.02) , chronic tubular ( rho=0.276; p=0.04) , chronic vascular (rho= -0.360;P=0.007), BCS (rho=-0.413; p=0.002) and GFR at 3 years were found. However, no correlation was found between % PSR, Ci, Ct or BCS. In multivariate linear regression the negative predictive factors of 3 years GFR were: BCS in histological model; donor kidney age, recipient age and black race in clinical model. The BCS seems a good and easy to perform tool, available to every pathologist, with significant predictive short-term value. The %PSR predicts short term kidney function in univariate study and involves extra-routine and expensive-time work. We think that %PSR must be regarded as a research instrument.

On the analysis of data emerging in non-linear and complex systemscomparison of two X-Ray prony spectra

New arguments proving that successive (repeated) measurements have a memory and actually remember each other are presented. The recognition of this peculiarity can change essentially the existing paradigm associated with conventional observation in behavior of different complex systems and lead towards the application of an intermediate model (IM). This IM can provide a very accurate fit of the measured data in terms of the Prony's decomposition. This decomposition, in turn, contains a small set of the fitting parameters relatively to the number of initial data points and allows comparing the measured data in cases where the “best fit” model based on some specific physical principles is absent. As an example, we consider two X-ray diffractometers (defined in paper as A- (“cheap”) and B- (“expensive”) that are used after their proper calibration for the measuring of the same substance (corundum a-Al2O3). The amplitude-frequency response (AFR) obtained in the frame of the Prony's decomposition can be used for comparison of the spectra recorded from (A) and (B) - X-ray diffractometers (XRDs) for calibration and other practical purposes. We prove also that the Fourier decomposition can be adapted to “ideal” experiment without memory while the Prony's decomposition corresponds to real measurement and can be fitted in the frame of the IM in this case. New statistical parameters describing the properties of experimental equipment (irrespective to their internal “filling”) are found. The suggested approach is rather general and can be used for calibration and comparison of different complex dynamical systems in practical purposes.

Contributo para o estudo do motor linear síncrono supercondutor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.

Kalman tracking linear predictor for vowel intelligibility enhancement on european portuguese HMM based speech synthesis

The recent developments on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) based speech synthesis showed that this is a promising technology fully capable of competing with other established techniques. However some issues still lack a solution. Several authors report an over-smoothing phenomenon on both time and frequencies which decreases naturalness and sometimes intelligibility. In this work we present a new vowel intelligibility enhancement algorithm that uses a discrete Kalman filter (DKF) for tracking frame based parameters. The inter-frame correlations are modelled by an autoregressive structure which provides an underlying time frame dependency and can improve time-frequency resolution. The system’s performance has been evaluated using objective and subjective tests and the proposed methodology has led to improved results.

Correlação entre a Extensão Linear do Tronco e o Alinhamento Segmentar do Membro Inferior Contralesional na Posição de Pé em Indivíduos Pós-AVE

O controlo postural (CP) do tronco é um pré-requisito para o movimento tendo como objetivo prevenir e minimizar as perturbações. Um CP adequado pressupõe estabilidade e orientação dos segmentos, sendo necessária uma orientação do tronco com componente de extensão linear para as atividades sentado e pé. Num acidente vascular encefálico (AVE), pode existir comprometimento do CP do tronco quer contralesional (CONTRA) como ipsilesional (IPSI). Neurofisiologicamente, parece haver uma projecção predominantemente ipsilateral para garantir um CP do tronco contralateralmente ao movimento, tornando-se importante perceber a correlação entre componentes do CP do tronco e o alinhamento do membro CONTRA. Contudo, atualmente são poucos os estudos direcionados para a o membro inferior (MI). Assim, uma vez que nesta população, assumir a posição de pé e realizar marcha constitui muitas vezes o seu principal objetivo, considerou-se relevante avaliar a correlação entre a extensão linear do tronco e o alinhamento segmentar do MI CONTRA na posição de pé. Participantes e Métodos: Estudo observacional, transversal, analítico com 11 indivíduos (idade média 70+10 anos, 54,5% homens). Como critérios de inclusão definiram-se AVE isquémico da artéria cerebral média, único e unilateral, em fase crónica. Recorrendo a um software de avaliação postural (SAPo) avaliou-se a extensão linear do tronco (alinhamento dos acrómios, alinhamento das espinhas ilíacas ântero-superiores (EIAS), ângulo formado entre os dois e o alinhamento vertical do tronco) e o alinhamento segmentar do MI (ângulo do joelho e ângulo entre o tronco e MI). Para a análise estatística inferencial utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson entre o ângulo dos acrómios e as EIAS, o alinhamento vertical do tronco e o alinhamento horizontal da pélvis IPSI com as variáveis de alinhamento do MI, para uma significância de 0,05. Resultados: Algumas correlações mostraram ser quase nulas (com valores entre -0,02 a 0,02) ou fracas como o alinhamento horizontal da pélvis IPSI com o ângulo do tronco e MI CONTRA (0,29 com p=0,39). O alinhamento do tronco e o ângulo do joelho apresentou moderada correlação (0,642), estatisticamente significativa (p=0,03). Conclusão: Os resultados deste estudo sugerem a existência de uma correlação positiva entre o alinhamento vertical do tronco e a extensão do joelho do MI CONTRA na posição de pé em indivíduos pós-AVE.

Linear amplification with multiple nonlinear devices

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Estudo de avaliação de emissões de nanopartículas na soldadura por fricção linear de ligas de alumínio

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF CHRONIC CHAGAS CARDIOMYOPATHY IN PATIENTS WITHOUT LEFT VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION

The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.

Análise não linear da interacção dinâmica solo - estaca em areias secas: um estudo numérico e experimental

Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Pesquisa e desenvolvimento de um sistema termoelétrico do tipo linear fresnel reflector

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Energias Renováveis – Conversão Elétrica e Utilização Sustentável

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Soldadura por fricção linear assistida por corrente elétrica

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica