Benford's Law and Fraud Detection. Facts and Legends

Is Benford's law a good instrument to detect fraud in reports of statistical and scientific data? For a valid test the probability of "false positives" and "false negatives" has to be low. However, it is very doubtful whether the Benford distribution is an appropriate tool to discriminate between manipulated and non-manipulated estimates. Further research should focus more on the validity of the test and test results should be interpreted more carefully.

Land use modelling and the role of stakeholders in natural protected areas: the case of Doñana national park, Spain

Doñana, a National Park since 1969, a UNESCO site since 1994 among other protected area designations of national and international character, is a coastal dune and marshland ecosystem of outstanding importance for biodiversity and conservation at the mouth of the Guadalaquivir River, Southwest Spain. However, the Doñana natural area is seriously threatened by global change factors such as humanly induced climate change, habitat loss, overexploitation of ecosystem services, and pollution. Not all stakeholders are convinced of the benefits of the national park, and management of Doñana, its environs and watershed are the subject of intense disagreement. This interplay between natural characteristics of great value with intense human pressure makes Doñana a fascinating workshop for the study of global human environment interactions. Here, we discuss the role of stakeholders in the application of a cellular automatabased model to Doñana and its environs and present the results of a series of exercises undertaken with stakeholders to parametrize the model, something often done by researchers without stakeholder engagement. By engaging with stakeholders early in the project, feedback generated from workshops contributes to model development. Stakeholders are therefore contributors of empirical data for the model as well as independent evaluators providing local and specialist knowledge.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Transmission and Transport of Energy in the Western U.S. and Canada: A Law and Policy Road Map

This collection of short essays arose from the inaugural meeting of the Idaho Symposium on Energy in the West, which was held in November, 2014. The topic for this first Symposium was Transmission and Transport of Energy in the Western U.S. and Canada: A Law and Policy Road Map. The essays in this collection provide a notable introduction to the major energy issues facing the West today. Topics include: building a resilient legal architecture for western energy production; natural gas flaring; transmission planning for wind energy; utilities and rooftop solar; special considerations for western states and the Clean Power Plan; the Clean Power Plan's implications for the western grid; siting renewable energy on public lands; and implications of utility reform in New York and Hawaii for the Northwest.

Effective Surface Water Quality Policies: A Contrast of Policies in the United States and the European Union

The United States and the European Union each have their own policy approach to protect surface water quality. Both policy approaches are similar in many ways. Both rely heavily on command and control. However, there are differences in the application of the details. Both the U.S. and E.U. began current efforts to protect surface water quality in the 1970s, yet quality continues to less than desired in both places. Both have reduced point source pollutants but have had difficulty controlling non-point source pollutants even though policies have been in place for many decades. The successes and failures of the two policies are studied in this project to determine which aspects of both policies will best protect surface water quality in an increasingly complex future.

Denver Water, Policy and Economics

An analysis of the Denver Water Department finds that it is charged with supplying water to over 1.1 million residents in the Denver Metropolitan area. With assets of over $1.2 billion dollars and a governing board of five appointed members who must make policy and financial decisions under unusual circumstances for most water districts. Those circumstances include; Colorado is the only State that has a single source of water, precipitation, State and Federal mandated water compacts that limits water resources further, and Colorado Constitutional mandated appropriation water laws. Combined together these circumstances create a difficult atmosphere for policy making and financial planning. When comparing the Denver Water Board with other water departments around the Country, the Denver Water Department seems to be competent in all areas.

Review and Recommendations for Fast-Track Wetland Permitting for Petroleum Pipeline Maintenance

The petroleum pipeline industry in the United States is challenged with maintaining the integrity of their pipelines, while also protecting the environment during any pipeline repairs. This project provides information on the activities relating to the industry Integrity Management Program, assesses the process that federal agencies are developing to create streamlined permitting processes, and if the necessary federal, state, and local wetland permits can be obtained in the time frame required by the law. Recommendations are also made for implementation of a fast-track wetland permitting process and what pipeline companies can do to speed up the permitting process. This project focuses on the refined petroleum pipelines that originate near the Gulf of Mexico and terminate in the Northeastern United States.

Performance Septic Systems: Does an Advanced Septic System Provide Adequate Treatment on Black Hammock Island and is there Adequate Regulatory Policy to Ensure Integrity?

This project determined if the performance based septic system, proposed for a development on Black Hammock Island in Jacksonville, Florida, is the best choice to prevent environmental contamination from septic tanks and if adequate regulatory policy exists. Research shows a central wastewater treatment plant provides the most efficient pollutant removal but can be cost prohibitive. This project found performance based systems surpasses conventional septic system performance and are more suited and economical to remote areas without sewer service. This project finds current regulations to be inadequate and supports ordinance changes proposed by the Mayor of Jacksonville to enhance the current policy and provide more adequate and meaningful regulation.

Saint Mathew Law and Bonini Paradox in Textual Theory of Complex Models

The mathematical models of the complex reality are texts belonging to a certain literature that is written in a semi-formal language, denominated L(MT) by the authors whose laws linguistic mathematics have been previously defined. This text possesses linguistic entropy that is the reflection of the physical entropy of the processes of real world that said text describes. Through the temperature of information defined by Mandelbrot, the authors begin a text-reality thermodynamic theory that drives to the existence of information attractors, or highly structured point, settling down a heterogeneity of the space text, the same one that of ontologic space, completing the well-known law of Saint Mathew, of the General Theory of Systems and formulated by Margalef saying: “To the one that has more he will be given, and to the one that doesn't have he will even be removed it little that it possesses.

The eight hours day for wage earning women: United States Supreme Court upholds the California law : List of eight hours laws

National Consumers' League.

How one juvenile court helps to make child labor legislation effective

by Mabel Brown Ellis.