A Framework for Various Approaches under the UNFCCC: Necessity or luxury? CEPS Special Report No. 70, 20 November 2012

In recognition that the world is moving towards a new climate change regime that in many ways will be very different from the world in which the Kyoto Protocol has been operating, climate negotiators and other specialists have begun to focus their attention on developing a “framework for variable approaches” (FVA). It is hoped that this new framework will prove more adaptable to national circumstances and more capable of catalysing new ideas, at the regional, national or sub-national level. This paper examines the assumptions, objectives, scope, components and functions of an FVA, with a view to creating the right conditions in which a well-functioning global carbon market can emerge.

The Future of the Clean Development Mechanism. Note on the report “A Call to Action” of the High-Level Panel on CDM Policy Dialogue. CEPS Special Report No. 71, 20 November 2012

The clean development mechanism (CDM) has been through a long and complex growing process since it was approved as part of the Kyoto Protocol. It was designed within the framework of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, and reflected the political and economic realities of that time. To ensure its continued effectiveness in contributing to future global climate action and to reflect on how best to position the CDM to respond to future challenges, a high-level panel (HLP) was formed at the Durban climate change conference in 2011. Following extensive consultations, the panel published its report in September 2012. Through this Special Report, the CEPS Carbon Market Forum offers its reflections on findings and recommendations of the HLP, as well as, by extension, its own views on the future of the CDM. In the context of the latter, it explores the following questions: Is there a need for an instrument such as the CDM in the future? What ‘demand’ can it fill? In the roles identified under the first question, what can be done to adapt it and also continue to increase its efficacy?

Doha/COP 18: gateway to a new climate change agreement. CEPS Commentary, 13 December 2012

Drawing on his recent experience in the climate negotiations in Doha as an advisor and negotiator on a wide variety of issues, Andrei Marcu offers his assessment of the progress achieved in the two weeks of intensive talks. In spite of modest results, he describes the talks as an important and necessary step in the revolution, first ignited at the Montreal negotiations in 2005, that rejected the top-down Kyoto Protocol model in favour of a bottom-up climate change regime. In his view, the decisions taken in Doha enable the start of a new negotiating process aimed at delivering a new global climate agreement.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fixed point dual carrier modulation performance for wireless USB

Dual Carrier Modulation (DCM) is currently used as the higher data rate modulation scheme for Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MB-OFDM) in the ECMA-368 defined Ultra-Wideband (UWB) radio platform. ECMA-368 has been chosen as the physical radio platform for many systems including Wireless USB (W-USB), Bluetooth 3.0 and Wireless HDMI; hence ECMA-368 is an important issue to consumer electronics and the user’s experience of these products. In this paper, Log Likelihood Ratio (LLR) demapping method is used for the DCM demaper implemented in fixed point model. Channel State Information (CSI) aided scheme coupled with the band hopping information is used as the further technique to improve the DCM demapping performance. The receiver performance for the fixed point DCM is simulated in realistic multi-path environments.

IR spectrum and radiative forcing of CF4 revisited

Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4) is included as a greenhouse gas within the Kyoto Protocol. There are significant discrepancies in the reported integrated infrared (IR) absorption cross section of CF4 leading to uncertainty in its contribution to climate change. To reduce this uncertainty, the IR spectrum of CF4 was measured in two different laboratories, in 0 933 hPa of air diluent at 296 +/- 2K over the wavelength range 600-3700 cm(-1) using spectral resolutions of 0.03 or 0.50 cm(-1). There was no discernable effect of diluent gas pressure or spectral resolution on the integrated IR absorption, and a value of the integrated absorption cross section of (1.90 +/- 0.17) x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) was derived. The radiative efficiency (radiative forcing per ppbv) and GWP (relative to CO2) of CF4 were calculated to be 0.102 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and 7200 (100 year time horizon). The GWP for CF4 calculated herein is approximately 30% greater than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ 2002] partly due to what we believe to be an erroneously low value for the IR absorption strength of CF4 assumed in the calculations adopted by the IPCC. The radiative efficiency of CF4 is predicted to decrease by up to 40% as the CF4 forcing starts to saturate and overlapping absorption by CH4, H2O, and N2O in the atmosphere increases over the period 1750-2100. The radiative forcing attributable to increased CF4 levels in the atmosphere from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be 0.004 W m(-2) and is predicted to be up to 0.033 W m(-2) from 2000 to 2100, dependent on the scenario.

Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere

Perfluorodecalin (C10F18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently, it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines, which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin, laboratory measurements, supplemented by theoretical calculations, give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91 x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 0-1500 cm(-1); calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and a 100-year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin, at Bristol, UK and Mace Head, Ireland, where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5 x 10(-15). At these concentrations, it makes a trivial contribution to climate change, but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas, indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PIGOK: linking protein identity to gene ontology and function

Here we introduce a computer database that allows for the rapid retrieval of physicochemical properties, Gene Ontology, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes information about a protein or a list of proteins. We applied PIGOK analyzing Schizosaccharomyces pombe proteins displaying differential expression under oxidative stress and identified their biological functions and pathways. The database is available on the Internet at http://pc4-133.ludwig.ucl.ac.uk/pigok.html.

Impedance mismatch: some differences between the way humans and robots control interaction forces

In over forty years of research robots have made very little progress still largely confined to industrial manufacture and cute toys, yet in the same period computing has followed Moores Law where the capacity double roughly every two years. So why is there no Moores Law for robots? Two areas stand out as worthy of research to speedup progress. The first is to get a greater understanding of how human and animal brains control movement, the second to build a new generation of robots that have greater haptic sense, that is a better ability to adapt to the environment as it is encountered. A remarkable property of the cognitive-motor system in humans and animals is that it is slow. Recognising an object may take 250 mS, a reaction time of 150 mS is considered fast. Yet despite this slow system we are well designed to allow contact with the world in a variety of ways. We can anticipate an encounter, use the change of force as a means of communication and ignore sensory cues when they are not relevant. A better understanding of these process has allowed us to build haptic interfaces to mimic the interaction. Emerging from this understanding are new ways to control the contact between robots, the user and the environment. Rehabilitation robotics has all the elements in the subject to not only enable and change the lives of people with disabilities, but also to facilitate revolution change in classic robotics.

Reach and grasp therapy: effects of the Gentle/G System assessing sub-acute stroke whole-arm rehabilitation

This paper reports preliminary results of a reach and grasp study of robot mediated neurorehabilitation. These results are presented on a case-by-case basis and give a good indication of a positive effect of robot mediated therapy. The study investigated both reach and grasp assistance and although it is not possible to attribute the response to the benefits of providing assistance of both modalities the study is a good indicator that this strategy should be pursued. The paper also reports on the benefits of motivational queues such as exercise scores and on subject attitudes to the robot mediated therapy.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics

The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere – both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NOx, mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

Renewable energy in the UK countryside: policy and practice

Of the technologies currently available for producing energy from renewable sources in the British climate all except one depend on a single ingredient, namely land. Therefore other than offshore wind generation, which has been slow and expensive to establish, renewables have had to be derived almost entirely from the land, whether as sites for turbines or areas on which to grow feedstocks for biomass and biofuels. Of these, only wind turbines have been developed in any number while economic conditions have until now been unfavourable for biomass and biofuel. The UK is unlikely to meet its present targets under the Kyoto agreement, due to a mixture of limited funding and problems of policy. Peter Prag examines the present position and the potential outlook.

Governing the clean development mechanism: global rhetoric versus local realities in carbon sequestration projects

Global agreements have proliferated in the past ten years. One of these is the Kyoto Protocol, which contains provisions for emissions reductions by trading carbon through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is a market-based instrument that allows companies in Annex I countries to offset their greenhouse gas emissions through energy and tree offset projects in the global South. I set out to examine the governance challenges posed by the institutional design of carbon sequestration projects under the CDM. I examine three global narratives associated with the design of CDM forest projects, specifically North – South knowledge politics, green developmentalism, and community participation, and subsequently assess how these narratives match with local practices in two projects in Latin America. Findings suggest that governance problems are operating at multiple levels and that the rhetoric of global carbon actors often asserts these schemes in one light, while the rhetoric of those who are immediately involved locally may be different. I also stress the alarmist’s discourse that blames local people for the problems of environmental change. The case studies illustrate the need for vertical communication and interaction and nested governance arrangements as well as horizontal arrangements. I conclude that the global framing of forests as offsets requires better integration of local relationships to forests and their management and more effective institutions at multiple levels to link the very local to the very large scale when dealing with carbon sequestration in the CDM.