Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Methane cross-validation between three Fourier Transform Spectrometers: SCISAT ACE-FTS, GOSAT TANSO-FTS, and ground-based FTS measurements in the Canadian high Arctic

We present cross-validation of remote sensing measurements of methane profiles in the Canadian high Arctic. Accurate and precise measurements of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and in global change. Here, we show a cross-validation between three datasets: two from spaceborne instruments and one from a ground-based instrument. All are Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)-FTS, a solar occultation infrared spectrometer operating since 2004, and the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO)-FTS, a nadir/off-nadir scanning FTS instrument operating at solar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectra at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka, Nunavut (80° N, 86° W) since 2006. For each pair of instruments, measurements are collocated within 500 km and 24 h. An additional criterion based on potential vorticity values was found not to significantly affect differences between measurements. Profiles are regridded to a common vertical grid for each comparison set. To account for differing vertical resolutions, ACE-FTS measurements are smoothed to the resolution of either PEARL-FTS or TANSO-FTS, and PEARL-FTS measurements are smoothed to the TANSO-FTS resolution. Differences for each pair are examined in terms of profile and partial columns. During the period considered, the number of collocations for each pair is large enough to obtain a good sample size (from several hundred to tens of thousands depending on pair and configuration). Considering full profiles, the degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS) are between 0.2 and 0.7 for TANSO-FTS and between 1.5 and 3 for PEARL-FTS, while ACE-FTS has considerably more information (roughly 1° of freedom per altitude level). We take partial columns between roughly 5 and 30 km for the ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS comparison, and between 5 and 10 km for the other pairs. The DOFS for the partial columns are between 1.2 and 2 for PEARL-FTS collocated with ACE-FTS, between 0.1 and 0.5 for PEARL-FTS collocated with TANSO-FTS or for TANSO-FTS collocated with either other instrument, while ACE-FTS has much higher information content. For all pairs, the partial column differences are within ± 3 × 1022 molecules cm−2. Expressed as median ± median absolute deviation (expressed in absolute or relative terms), these differences are 0.11 ± 9.60 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.012 ± 1.018 %) for TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS, −2.6 ± 2.6 × 10^21 molecules cm−2 (−1.6 ± 1.6 %) for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS, and 7.4 ± 6.0 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.78 ± 0.64 %) for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS. The differences for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS and TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS partial columns decrease significantly as a function of PEARL partial columns, whereas the range of partial column values for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS collocations is too small to draw any conclusion on its dependence on ACE-FTS partial columns.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field.

Writing westwards: medieval English literature and its early modern Irish audiences

Quite a few texts from England were translated into Irish in the fifteenth and early-sixteenth centuries. The number of these texts was significant enough to suggest that foreign material of this sort enjoyed something of a vogue in late-medieval Ireland. Translated texts include Mandeville’s Travels, Guy of Warwick, Bevis of Hampton, Fierabras and a selection of saints’ lives. Scholars have paid little attention to the origins and initial readerships of these texts, but still less research has been conducted into their afterlife in early modern Ireland. However, a strikingly high number of these works continued to be read and copied well into the seventeenth century and some, such as the Irish translations of Octavian and William of Palerne, only survive in manuscripts from this later period. This paper takes these translations as a test case to explore the ways in which a cross-period approach to such writing is applicable in Ireland, a country where the renaissance is generally considered to have taken little hold. It considers the extent to which Irish reception of this translated material shifts and evolves in the course of this turbulent period and whether the same factors that contributed to the continued demand for a range of similar texts in England into the seventeenth century are also discernible in the Irish context.

The water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows – current understanding and prospects for its inclusion in spectroscopic databases

Spectroscopic catalogues, such as GEISA and HITRAN, do not yet include information on the water vapour continuum that pervades visible, infrared and microwave spectral regions. This is partly because, in some spectral regions, there are rather few laboratory measurements in conditions close to those in the Earth’s atmosphere; hence understanding of the characteristics of the continuum absorption is still emerging. This is particularly so in the near-infrared and visible, where there has been renewed interest and activity in recent years. In this paper we present a critical review focusing on recent laboratory measurements in two near-infrared window regions (centred on 4700 and 6300 cm−1) and include reference to the window centred on 2600 cm−1 where more measurements have been reported. The rather few available measurements, have used Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS), cavity ring down spectroscopy, optical-feedback – cavity enhanced laser spectroscopy and, in very narrow regions, calorimetric interferometry. These systems have different advantages and disadvantages. Fourier Transform Spectroscopy can measure the continuum across both these and neighbouring windows; by contrast, the cavity laser techniques are limited to fewer wavenumbers, but have a much higher inherent sensitivity. The available results present a diverse view of the characteristics of continuum absorption, with differences in continuum strength exceeding a factor of 10 in the cores of these windows. In individual windows, the temperature dependence of the water vapour self-continuum differs significantly in the few sets of measurements that allow an analysis. The available data also indicate that the temperature dependence differs significantly between different near-infrared windows. These pioneering measurements provide an impetus for further measurements. Improvements and/or extensions in existing techniques would aid progress to a full characterisation of the continuum – as an example, we report pilot measurements of the water vapour self-continuum using a supercontinuum laser source coupled to an FTS. Such improvements, as well as additional measurements and analyses in other laboratories, would enable the inclusion of the water vapour continuum in future spectroscopic databases, and therefore allow for a more reliable forward modelling of the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It would also allow a more confident assessment of different theoretical descriptions of the underlying cause or causes of continuum absorption.

Use of checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization to evaluate the internal contamination of dental implants and comparison of bacterial leakage with cast or pre-machined abutments

To evaluate the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method for detection and quantitation of bacteria from the internal parts of dental implants and to compare bacterial leakage from implants connected either to cast or to pre-machined abutments. Nine plastic abutments cast in a Ni-Cr alloy and nine pre-machined Co-Cr alloy abutments with plastic sleeves cast in Ni-Cr were connected to Branemark-compatible implants. A group of nine implants was used as control. The implants were inoculated with 3 mu l of a solution containing 10(8) cells/ml of Streptococcus sobrinus. Bacterial samples were immediately collected from the control implants while assemblies were completely immersed in 5 ml of sterile Tripty Soy Broth (TSB) medium. After 14 days of anaerobic incubation, occurrence of leakage at the implant-abutment interface was evaluated by assessing contamination of the TSB medium. Internal contamination of the implants was evaluated with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. DNA-DNA hybridization was sensitive enough to detect and quantify the microorganism from the internal parts of the implants. No differences in leakage and in internal contamination were found between cast and pre-machined abutments. Bacterial scores in the control group were significantly higher than in the other groups (P < 0.05). Bacterial leakage through the implant-abutment interface does not significantly differ when cast or pre-machined abutments are used. The checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique is suitable for the evaluation of the internal contamination of dental implants although further studies are necessary to validate the use of computational methods for the improvement of the test accuracy. To cite this article:do Nascimento C, Barbosa RES, Issa JPM, Watanabe E, Ito IY, Albuquerque Junior RF. Use of checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization to evaluate the internal contamination of dental implants and comparison of bacterial leakage with cast or pre-machined abutments.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 20, 2009; 571-577.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2008.01663.x.

Is a lower dose of vitamin D supplementation enough to increase 25(OH)D status in a sunny country?

Calcium and vitamin D are essential nutrients for bone metabolism Vitamin D can either be obtained from dietary sources or cutaneous synthesis. The study was conducted in subtropic weather; therefore, some might believe that the levels of solar radiation would be sufficient in this area. To evaluate calcium and vitamin D supplementation in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis living in a sunny country. A 3-month controlled clinical trial with 64 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, mean age 62 +/- A 8 years. They were randomly assigned to either the supplement group, who received 1,200 mg of calcium carbonate and 400 IU (10 mu g) of vitamin D(3,) or the control group. Dietary intake assessment was performed, bone mineral density and body composition were measured, and biochemical markers of bone metabolism were analyzed. Considering all participants at baseline, serum vitamin D was under 75 nmol/l in 91.4% of the participants. The concentration of serum 25(OH)D increased significantly (p = 0.023) after 3 months of supplementation from 46.67 +/- A 13.97 to 59.47 +/- A 17.50 nmol/l. However, the dose given was limited in effect, and 86.2% of the supplement group did not reach optimal levels of 25(OH)D. Parathyroid hormone was elevated in 22.4% of the study group. After the intervention period, mean parathyroid hormone tended to decrease in the supplement group (p = 0.063). The dose given (400 IU/day) was not enough to achieve 25(OH)D concentration, considered optimal for bone health.

GHASP: an H alpha kinematic survey of spiral and irregular galaxies - IX. The near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations

We studied, for the first time, the near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations for a sample of field galaxies taken from a homogeneous Fabry-Perot sample of galaxies [the Gassendi HAlpha survey of SPirals (GHASP) survey]. The main advantage of GHASP over other samples is that the maximum rotational velocities were estimated from 2D velocity fields, avoiding assumptions about the inclination and position angle of the galaxies. By combining these data with 2MASS photometry, optical colours, HI masses and different mass-to-light ratio estimators, we found a slope of 4.48 +/- 0.38 and 3.64 +/- 0.28 for the stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relation, respectively. We found that these values do not change significantly when different mass-to-light ratio recipes were used. We also point out, for the first time, that the rising rotation curves as well as asymmetric rotation curves show a larger dispersion in the Tully-Fisher relation than the flat ones or the symmetric ones. Using the baryonic mass and the optical radius of galaxies, we found that the surface baryonic mass density is almost constant for all the galaxies of this sample. In this study we also emphasize the presence of a break in the NIR Tully-Fisher relation at M(H,K) similar to -20 and we confirm that late-type galaxies present higher total-to-baryonic mass ratios than early-type spirals, suggesting that supernova feedback is actually an important issue in late-type spirals. Due to the well-defined sample selection criteria and the homogeneity of the data analysis, the Tully-Fisher relation for GHASP galaxies can be used as a reference for the study of this relation in other environments and at higher redshifts.

GEMINI near-infrared spectroscopic observations of young massive stars embedded in molecular clouds

K-band spectra of young stellar candidates in four Southern hemisphere clusters have been obtained with the Gemini Near-Infrared Spectrograph in Gemini South. The clusters are associated with IRAS sources that have colours characteristic of ultracompact H II regions. Spectral types were obtained by comparison of the observed spectra with those of a near-infrared (NIR) library; the results include the spectral classification of nine massive stars and seven objects confirmed as background late-type stars. Two of the studied sources have K-band spectra compatible with those characteristic of very hot stars, as inferred from the presence of C IV, N III and N V emission lines at 2.078, 2.116 and 2.100 mu m, respectively. One of them, I16177_IRS1, has a K-band spectrum similar to that of Cyg OB2 7, an O3If* supergiant star. The nebular K-band spectrum of the associated Ultra-Compact (UC) H II region shows the s-process [Kr III] and [Se IV] high excitation emission lines, previously identified only in planetary nebula. One young stellar object was found in each cluster, associated with either the main IRAS source or a nearby resolved Midecourse Space eXperiment (MSX) component, confirming the results obtained from previous NIR photometric surveys. The distances to the stars were derived from their spectral types and previously determined JHK magnitudes; they agree well with the values obtained from the kinematic method, except in the case of IRAS 15408-5356, for which the spectroscopic distance is about a factor of 2 smaller than the kinematic value.

Near threshold vibrational excitation of molecules by positron impact: A projection operator approach

We report vibrational excitation (v(i) = 0 -> v(f) = 1) cross-sections for positron scattering by H(2) and model calculations for the (v(i) = 0 -> v(f) = 1) excitation of the C-C symmetric stretch mode of C(2)H(2). The Feshbach projection operator formalism was employed to vibrationally resolve the fixed-nuclei phase shifts obtained with the Schwinger multichannel method. The near threshold behavior of H(2) and C(2)H(2) significantly differ in the sense that no low lying singularity (either virtual or bound state) was found for the former, while a e(+)-acetylene virtual state was found at the equilibrium geometry (this virtual state becomes a bound state upon stretching the molecule). For C(2)H(2), we also performed model calculations comparing excitation cross-sections arising from virtual (-i kappa(0)) and bound (+i kappa(0)) states symmetrically located around the origin of the complex momentum plane (i.e. having the same kappa(0)). The virtual state is seen to significantly couple to vibrations, and similar cross-sections were obtained for shallow bound and virtual states. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural-electronic aspects related to the near-infrared light emission of Fe-doped silicon films

The need of efficient (fast and low consumption) optoelectronic devices has always been the driving force behind the investigation of materials with new or improved properties. To be commercially attractive, however, these materials should be compatible with our current micro-electronics industry and/or telecommunications system. Silicon-based compounds, with their matured processing technology and natural abundance, partially comply with such requirements-as long as they emit light. Motivated by these issues, this work reports on the optical properties of amorphous Si films doped with Fe. The films were prepared by sputtering a Si+Fe target and were investigated by different spectroscopic techniques. According to the experimental results, both the Fe concentration and the thermal annealing of the samples induce changes in their atomic structure and optical-electronic properties. In fact, after thermal annealing at similar to 750 degrees C, the samples partially crystallize with the development of Si and/or beta-FeSi(2) crystallites. In such a case, certain samples present light emission at similar to 1500 nm that depends on the presence of beta-FeSi(2) crystallites and is very sensitive to the annealing conditions. The most likely reasons for the light emission (or absence of it) in the considered Fe-doped Si samples are presented and discussed in view of their main structural-electronic characteristics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cholesterol Hydroperoxides Generate Singlet Molecular Oxygen [O(2) ((1)Delta(g))]: Near-IR Emission, (18)O-Labeled Hydroperoxides, and Mass Spectrometry

In mammalian membranes, cholesterol is concentrated in lipid rafts. The generation of cholesterol hydroperoxides (ChOOHs) and their decomposition products induces various types of cell damage. The decomposition of some organic hydroperoxides into peroxyl radicals is known to be a potential source of singlet molecular oxygen [O(2) ((1)Delta(g))] in biological systems. We report herein on evidence of the generation of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) from ChOOH isomers in solution or in liposomes containing ChOOHs, which involves a cyclic mechanism from a linear tetraoxide intermediate originally proposed by Russell. Characteristic light emission at 1270 nm, corresponding to O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) monomolecular decay, was observed for each ChOOH isomer or in liposomes containing ChOOHs. Moreover, the presence of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) was unequivocally demonstrated using the direct spectral characterization of near-infrared light emission. Using (18)O-labeled cholesterol hydroperoxide (Ch(18)O(18)OH), we observed the formation of (18)O-labeled O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) [(18)O(2) ((1)Delta(g))] by the chemical trapping of (18)O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) with 9,10-diphenylanthracene (DPA) and detected the corresponding (18)O-labeled DPA endoperoxide (DPA(18)O(18)O) and the (18)O-labeled products of the Russell mechanism using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Photoemission properties and chemical trapping clearly demonstrate that the decomposition of Ch(18)O(18)OH generates (18)O(2) ((1)Delta(g)), which is consistent with the Russell mechanism and points to the involvement of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) in cholesterol hydroperoxide-mediated cytotoxicity.

Studies on the resonance Raman spectra of polyaniline obtained with near-IR excitation

The effects of near-IR (NIR) laser power over the Raman spectra of poly(aniline) emeraldine salt (PANIES) and base (PANI-EB) were investigated. The reasons for the existence of several bands from 1324 to 1500 cm-1 in the Raman spectra of poly(aniline) obtained at NIR region were also studied. The bands from 1324 to 1375 cm-` were associated to vC-N of polarons with different conjugation lengths and the bands from 1450 to 1500 cm-1 in Raman spectra of PANI emeraldine and pernigraniline base forms were correlated to vC=N modes associated with quinoid units having different conjugation lengths. The increase of laser power at 1064.0 run causes the deprotonation of PANI-ES and the formation of cross-linking segments having phenazine and/or oxazine rings. For PANI-EB only a small spectral change is observed when the laser power is increased, owing to the low absorption of this form in the NIR region. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.