The Known Unknowns of Governance.

Empirical researchers interested in how governance shapes various aspects of economic development frequently use the Worldwide Governance indicators (WGI). These variables come in the form of an estimate along with a standard error reflecting the uncertainty of this estimate. Existing empirical work simply uses the estimates as an explanatory variable and discards the information provided by the standard errors. In this paper, we argue that the appropriate practice should be to take into account the uncertainty around the WGI estimates through the use of multiple imputation. We investigate the importance of our proposed approach by revisiting in three applications the results of recently published studies. These applications cover the impact of governance on (i) capital flows; (ii) international trade; (iii) income levels around the world. We generally find that the estimated effects of governance are highly sensitive to the use of multiple imputation. We also show that model misspecification is a concern for the results of our reference studies. We conclude that the effects of governance are hard to establish once we take into account uncertainty around both the WGI estimates and the correct model specification.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Estimating the Impact on Efficiency of the Adoption of a Voluntary Environmental Standard: An Empirical Study of the Global Copper Mining Industry

This paper uses data on the world's copper mining industry to measure the impact on efficiency of the adoption of the ISO 14001 environmental standard. Anecdotal and case study literature suggests that firms are motivated to adopt this standard so as to achieve greater efficiency through changes in operating procedures and processes. Using plant level panel data from 1992-2007 on most of the world's industrial copper mines, the study uses stochastic frontier methods to investigate the effects of ISO adoption. The variety of models used in this study find that adoption either tends to improve efficiency or has no impact on efficiency, but no evidence is found that ISO adoption decreases efficiency.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Del Noguerola al Segre: els problemes de la qualitat ambiental de l'aigua

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Els principals objectius del treball són intentar demostrar, cinc anys més tard, si el riu Noguerola és encara fruit d'abocaments residuals en el seu pas subterrani per la ciutat de Lleida, i observar i analitzar com el riu Segre sofreix múltiples impactes ambientals provinents, especialment, de les activitats agrícoles i ramaderes. Es van fer dos campanyes de mostrejos en les confluències de 10 afluents dels marges dret i esquerre del riu Segre, i en 5 punts al llarg d'aquest. Per a cada mostra es van analitzar: conductivitat, temperatura, ph, nitrats, nitrits, amoni, fosfats, duresa i microorganismes. A més a més, es van delimitar i determinar les superfícies de les conques i es van fer balanços hidrometeorològics per determinar les aportacions naturals de l’aigua de pluja, i es van estimar els excedents de reg de totes les conques, per així calcular les masses totals de cada paràmetre, aportades per cada afluent. Les principals conclusions a què s’ha arribat són: que el riu Noguerola continua sent fruit d'abocaments residuals en el seu pas subterrani per la ciutat de Lleida. I que, tant les activitats agrícoles i ramaderes, com les captacions d'aigua dels canals de Balaguer i de Seròs per a l’obtenció d’energia hidroelèctrica, provoquen greus impactes ambientals al riu Segre.

Friction Stir Processing : a new microstructure improvement technique

In the present work, microstructure improvement using FSP (Friction Stir Processing) is studied. In the first part of the work, the microstructure improvement of as-cast A356 is demonstrated. Some tensile tests were applied to check the increase in ductility. However, the expected results couldn’t be achieved. In the second part, the microstructure improvement of a fusion weld in 1050 aluminium alloy is presented. Hardness tests were carried out to prove the mechanical propertyimprovements. In the third and last part, the microstructure improvement of 1050 aluminium alloy is achieved. A discussion of the mechanical property improvements induced by FSP is made. The influence of tool traverse speed on microstructure and mechanical properties is also discussed. Hardness tests and recrystallization theory enabled us to find out such influence

Negative Fukui functions: new insights based on electronegativity equalization

The occurrence of negative values for Fukui functions was studied through the electronegativity equalization method. Using algebraic relations between Fukui functions and different other conceptual DFT quantities on the one hand and the hardness matrix on the other hand, expressions were obtained for Fukui functions for several archetypical small molecules. Based on EEM calculations for large molecular sets, no negative Fukui functions were found

Permanent Genetic Resources added to Molecular Ecology Resources Database 1 August 2010-30 September 2010

This article documents the addition of 229 microsatellite marker loci to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Acacia auriculiformis x Acacia mangium hybrid, Alabama argillacea, Anoplopoma fimbria, Aplochiton zebra, Brevicoryne brassicae, Bruguiera gymnorhiza, Bucorvus leadbeateri, Delphacodes detecta, Tumidagena minuta, Dictyostelium giganteum, Echinogammarus berilloni, Epimedium sagittatum, Fraxinus excelsior, Labeo chrysophekadion, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, Paratrechina longicornis, Phaeocystis antarctica, Pinus roxburghii and Potamilus capax. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Acacia peregrinalis, Acacia crassicarpa, Bruguiera cylindrica, Delphacodes detecta, Tumidagena minuta, Dictyostelium macrocephalum, Dictyostelium discoideum, Dictyostelium purpureum, Dictyostelium mucoroides, Dictyostelium rosarium, Polysphondylium pallidum, Epimedium brevicornum, Epimedium koreanum, Epimedium pubescens, Epimedium wushanese and Fraxinus angustifolia.

Estudio de la microdureza de la serie CrK(SO4)2.12H2O - AlK(SO4)2.12H2O

En el presente trabajo se mide la microdureza de cristales pertenecientes a la serie isomorfa Alumbre crómico potásico, Alumbre alumínico potásico Las cargas empleadas son 5, 10 y 20 pondios; para esta última carga se obtienen durezas Vickers entre 64 y 70 kg/mm3. Se calculan las constantes de la Ley de Kick.

Interpretación de los valores de microdureza a partir de la recta de Gahm. Aplicación a la dureza de la hematites y la cobaltina

Se describe la obtención de los valores experimentales de la dureza a escala microscópica (microdureza) en las hematites y la cubaltina y de los respectivos equipos utilizados. Se exponen a continuación las gráficas de los valores obtenidos, según Gahm, para la obtención de la recta de regresión. Se establecen las conclusiones y recomendaciones al efectuar trabajo, de investigación sobre la dureza de los minerales.

Index of soil physical quality of hardsetting soils on the brazilian coast

Many soils have a hard-setting behavior, also known as cohesive or "coesos". In such soils, the penetration resistance increases markedly when dry and decreases considerably when moist, creating serious limitations for plant emergence and growth. To evaluate the level of structure degradation in hard-setting soils with different texture classes and to create an index for assessing soil hardness levels in hard-setting soils, six soil representative profiles were selected in the field in various regions of Brazil. The following indices were tested: S, which measures soil physical quality, and H , which analyzes the degree of hardness and the effective stress in the soil during drying. Both indices were calculated using previously described functions based on data from the water-retention curves for the soils. The hard-setting values identified in different soils of the Brazilian Coastal Tablelands have distinct compaction (hardness) levels and can be satisfactorily measured by the H index. The S index was adequate for evaluating the structural characteristics of the hard-setting soils, classifying them as suitable or poor for cultivation, but only when the moisture level of the soil was near the inflection point. The H index showed that increases in density in hard-setting soils result from increases in effective stress and not from the soil texture. Values for Bd > 1.48 kg dm-3 classify the soil as hard-setting, and the structural organization is considered "poor".