Predicting the occurrence of alate aphids in Brassicaceae

The objective of this work was to predict the occurrence of alates of Brevicoryne brassicae, Lipaphis erysimi, and Myzus persicae (Hemiptera, Aphididae) in Brassicaceae. The alate aphids were collected in yellow water traps from July 1997 to August 2005. Aphid population peaks were predicted using a degree‑day model. The meteorological factors, temperature, air relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine hours, were used to provide precision indexes to evaluate the best predictor for the date of the first capture of alate aphids by the traps. The degree‑day model indicated that the peak population of the evaluated aphid species can be predicted using one of the following biofix dates: January 1st, June 1st, and the date of the first capture of the alate aphid species by the yellow water traps. The best predictor of B. brassicae occurrence is the number of days with minimum temperature >15°C, and of L. erysimi and M. persicae, the number of days with rainfall occurrence.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Medical and pharmacological direct costs of a 9-week smoking cessation programme.

Background: Medical and pharmacological direct costs of cigarette smoking cessation programmes are not covered by health insurance in several countries despite documented cost-effectiveness. Design: prospective cost identification study of a 9-week programme in Switzerland. Methods: A total of 481 smokers were followed-up for 9 weeks. Socio-demographic characteristics, number of outpatient visits, dosage and frequency of use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) as well as date of relapse were prospectively collected. Individual cost of care until relapse or programme end as well as cost per week of follow-up were computed. Comparisons were carried out between the groups with or without relapse at the end of the programme. Results: Of the 209 men and 272 women included, 347 patients (72%) finished the programme. Among them, 240 patients (70%) succeeded in quitting and 107 patients (30%) relapsed. As compared with the group relapsing by the end of the programme, the group succeeding in quitting was more often living in a couple (68% vs. 55%, p = 0.029). Their mean weekly costs of visits were higher (CHF 81.2 ± 6.1 vs. 78.4 ± 7.6, p = 0.001), while their mean weekly costs for NRT were similar (CHF 24.2 ± 12.6 vs. 25.4 ± 15.9, p = 0.711). Mean total costs per week were similar (CHF 105.4 ± 15.4 vs. 103.8 ± 19.4, p = 0.252). More intensive NRT at week 4 increased the probability not to relapse at the end of the programme. Conclusions: Over 9 weeks, medical and pharmacological costs of stopping smoking are low. Good medical and social support as well as adequate NRT seem to play a role in successful quitting.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

Aging preferentially affects molecular pathways implicated in development and disease of myelinating glial cells

The central and peripheral nervous systems are involved in multiple age-dependent neurological deficits that are often attributed to alterations in function of myelinating glial cells. However, the molecular events that underlie the age-related decline of glial cell function are unknown. We used Schwann cells as a model to study biological processes affected in glial cells by aging. We comprehensively profiled gene expression of the Schwann cellrich mouse sciatic nerve throughout life, from day of birth until senescence (840 days of age). We combined the aging data with the microarray transcriptional data obtained using nerves isolated from Schwann cell-specific neuropathy-inducing mutants MPZCre/+/Lpin1fE2−3/fE2−3 , MPZCre/+/ScapfE1/fE1 and Pmp22-null mice. The majority of age related transcripts were also affected in the analyzed mouse models of neuropathy (54.4%) and in development (59.5%) indicating a high level of overlapping in implicated molecular pathways. We observed that compared to peripheral nerve development, dynamically changing expression profiles in aging have opposite (anticorrelated) orientation while they copy the orientation of transcriptional changes observed in analyzed neuropathy models. Subsequent clustering and biological annotation of dynamically changing transcripts revealed that the processes most significantly deregulated in aging include inflammatory/immune response and lipid biosynthesis/metabolism. Importantly, the changes in these pathways were also observed in myelinated oligodendrocyte-rich optic nerves of aged mice, albeit with lower magnitude. This observation suggests that similar biological processes are affected in aging glial cells in central and peripheral nervous systems, however with different dynamics. Our data, which provide the first comprehensive comparison of molecular changes in glial cells in three distinct biological conditions comprising development, aging and disease, provide not only a new inside into the molecular alterations underlying neural system aging but also identify target pathways for potential therapeutic approaches to prevent or delay complications associated with age-related and inherited forms of neuropathies. *Current address: Department of Physiology, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Management of faecal incontinence and constipation in adults with central neurological diseases.

BACKGROUND: People with neurological disease have a much higher risk of both faecal incontinence and constipation than the general population. There is often a fine dividing line between the two conditions, with any management intended to ameliorate, one risking precipitating the other. Bowel problems are observed to be the cause of much anxiety and may reduce quality of life in these people. Current bowel management is largely empirical with a limited research base. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of management strategies for faecal incontinence and constipation in people with neurological diseases affecting the central nervous system. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Group Trials Register, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, MEDLINE, EMBASE and all reference lists of relevant articles. Date of the most recent searches: May 2000. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomised or quasi-randomised trials evaluating any types of conservative, or surgical measure for the management of faecal incontinence and constipation in people with neurological diseases were selected. Specific therapies for the treatment of neurological diseases that indirectly affect bowel dysfunction have also been considered. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: All three reviewers assessed the methodological quality of eligible trials and two reviewers independently extracted data from included trials using a range of pre-specified outcome measures. MAIN RESULTS: Only seven trials were identified by the search strategy and all were small and of poor quality. Oral medications for constipation were the subject of four trials. Cisapride does not seem to have clinically useful effects in people with spinal cord injuries (two trials). Psyllium was associated with increased stool frequency in people with Parkinson's disease but not altered colonic transit time (one trial). Some rectal preparations to initiate defecation produced faster results than others (one trial). Different time schedules for administration of rectal medication may produce different bowel responses (one trial). Mechanical evacuation may be more effective than oral or rectal medication (one trial). The clinical significance of any of these results is difficult to interpret. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: It is not possible to draw any recommendation for bowel care in people with neurological diseases from the trials included in this review. Bowel management for these people must remain empirical until well-designed controlled trials with adequate numbers and clinically relevant outcome measures become available.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

Emergence of oriented circuits driven by synaptic pruning associated with spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP)

ABSTRACT: Massive synaptic pruning following over-growth is a general feature of mammalian brain maturation. Pruning starts near time of birth and is completed by time of sexual maturation. Trigger signals able to induce synaptic pruning could be related to dynamic functions that depend on the timing of action potentials. Spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity (STDP) is a change in the synaptic strength based on the ordering of pre- and postsynaptic spikes. The relation between synaptic efficacy and synaptic pruning suggests that the weak synapses may be modified and removed through competitive "learning" rules. This plasticity rule might produce the strengthening of the connections among neurons that belong to cell assemblies characterized by recurrent patterns of firing. Conversely, the connections that are not recurrently activated might decrease in efficiency and eventually be eliminated. The main goal of our study is to determine whether or not, and under which conditions, such cell assemblies may emerge out of a locally connected random network of integrate-and-fire units distributed on a 2D lattice receiving background noise and content-related input organized in both temporal and spatial dimensions. The originality of our study stands on the relatively large size of the network, 10,000 units, the duration of the experiment, 10E6 time units (one time unit corresponding to the duration of a spike), and the application of an original bio-inspired STDP modification rule compatible with hardware implementation. A first batch of experiments was performed to test that the randomly generated connectivity and the STDP-driven pruning did not show any spurious bias in absence of stimulation. Among other things, a scale factor was approximated to compensate for the network size on the ac¬tivity. Networks were then stimulated with the spatiotemporal patterns. The analysis of the connections remaining at the end of the simulations, as well as the analysis of the time series resulting from the interconnected units activity, suggest that feed-forward circuits emerge from the initially randomly connected networks by pruning. RESUME: L'élagage massif des synapses après une croissance excessive est une phase normale de la ma¬turation du cerveau des mammifères. L'élagage commence peu avant la naissance et est complété avant l'âge de la maturité sexuelle. Les facteurs déclenchants capables d'induire l'élagage des synapses pourraient être liés à des processus dynamiques qui dépendent de la temporalité rela¬tive des potentiels d'actions. La plasticité synaptique à modulation temporelle relative (STDP) correspond à un changement de la force synaptique basé sur l'ordre des décharges pré- et post- synaptiques. La relation entre l'efficacité synaptique et l'élagage des synapses suggère que les synapses les plus faibles pourraient être modifiées et retirées au moyen d'une règle "d'appren¬tissage" faisant intervenir une compétition. Cette règle de plasticité pourrait produire le ren¬forcement des connexions parmi les neurones qui appartiennent à une assemblée de cellules caractérisée par des motifs de décharge récurrents. A l'inverse, les connexions qui ne sont pas activées de façon récurrente pourraient voir leur efficacité diminuée et être finalement éliminées. Le but principal de notre travail est de déterminer s'il serait possible, et dans quelles conditions, que de telles assemblées de cellules émergent d'un réseau d'unités integrate-and¬-fire connectées aléatoirement et distribuées à la surface d'une grille bidimensionnelle recevant à la fois du bruit et des entrées organisées dans les dimensions temporelle et spatiale. L'originalité de notre étude tient dans la taille relativement grande du réseau, 10'000 unités, dans la durée des simulations, 1 million d'unités de temps (une unité de temps correspondant à une milliseconde), et dans l'utilisation d'une règle STDP originale compatible avec une implémentation matérielle. Une première série d'expériences a été effectuée pour tester que la connectivité produite aléatoirement et que l'élagage dirigé par STDP ne produisaient pas de biais en absence de stimu¬lation extérieure. Entre autres choses, un facteur d'échelle a pu être approximé pour compenser l'effet de la variation de la taille du réseau sur son activité. Les réseaux ont ensuite été stimulés avec des motifs spatiotemporels. L'analyse des connexions se maintenant à la fin des simulations, ainsi que l'analyse des séries temporelles résultantes de l'activité des neurones, suggèrent que des circuits feed-forward émergent par l'élagage des réseaux initialement connectés au hasard.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Comparison of the consumption of antidepressants in the immigrant and native populations in a Spanish health region: an observational study

BACKGROUND: Health professionals and organizations in developed countries adapt slowly to the increase of ethnically diverse populations attending health care centres. Several studies report that attention to immigrant mental health comes up with barriers in access, diagnosis and therapeutics, threatening equity. This study analyzes differences in exposure to antidepressant drugs between the immigrant and the native population of a Spanish health region. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of the dispensation of antidepressant drugs to the population aged 15 years or older attending the public primary health centres of a health region, 232,717 autochthonous and 33,361 immigrants, during 2008. Data were obtained from computerized medical records and pharmaceutical records of medications dispensed in pharmacies. Age, sex, country of origin, visits, date of entry in the regional health system, generic drugs and active ingredients were considered. Statistical analysis expressed the percentage of persons exposed to antidepressants stratified by age, gender, and country of origin and prevalence ratios of antidepressant exposition were calculated. RESULTS: Antidepressants were dispensed to 11% of native population and 2.6% of immigrants. Depending on age, native women were prescribed antidepressants between 1.9 and 2.7 times more than immigrant women, and native men 2.5 and 3.1 times more than their immigrant counterparts. Among immigrant females, the highest rate was found in the Latin Americans (6.6%) and the lowest in the sub-Saharans (1.4%). Among males, the highest use was also found in the Latin Americans (1.6%) and the lowest in the sub-Saharans (0.7%). The percentage of immigrants prescribed antidepressants increased significantly in relation to the number of years registered with the local health system. Significant differences were found for the new antidepressants, prescribed 8% more in the native population than in immigrants, both in men and in women. CONCLUSIONS: All the immigrants, regardless of the country of origin, had lower antidepressant consumption than the native population of the same age and sex. Latin American women presented the highest levels of consumption, and the sub-Saharan men the lowest. The prescription profiles also differed, since immigrants consumed more generics and fewer recently commercialized active ingredients.

Aging preferentially affects molecular pathways implicated in development and disease of myelinating glial cells

The central and peripheral nervous systems are involved in multiple agedependent neurological deficits that are often attributed to alterations in function of myelinating glial cells. However, the molecular events that underlie the age-related decline of glial cell function are unknown. We used Schwann cells as a model to study biological processes affected in glial cells by aging. We comprehensively profiled gene expression of the Schwann cell-rich mouse sciatic nerve throughout life, from day of birth until senescence (840 days of age). We combined the aging data with the microarray transcriptional data obtained using nerves isolated from Schwann cell-specific neuropathy-inducing mutants MPZCre/þ/Lpin1fE2-3/fE2-3, MPZCre/þ/ScapfE1/fE1 and Pmp22-null mice. A majority of age related transcripts were also affected in the analyzed mouse models of neuropathy (54.4%) and in development (59.5%) indicating a high level of overlapping in implicated molecular pathways. We observed that compared to peripheral nerve development, dynamically changing expression profiles in aging have opposite (anticorrelated) orientation while they copy the orientation of transcriptional changes observed in analyzed neuropathy models. Subsequent clustering and biological annotation of dynamically changing transcripts revealed that the processes most significantly deregulated in aging include inflammatory/ immune response and lipid biosynthesis/metabolism. Importantly, the changes in these pathways were also observed in myelinated oligodendrocyte- rich optic nerves of aged mice, albeit with lower magnitude. This observation suggests that similar biological processes are affected in aging glial cells in central and peripheral nervous systems, however with different dynamics. Our data, which provide the first comprehensive comparison of molecular changes in glial cells in three distinct biological conditions comprising development, aging and disease, provide not only a new inside into the molecular alterations underlying neural system aging but also identify target pathways for potential therapeutical approaches to prevent or delay complications associated with age-related and inherited forms of neuropathies.

Ten years after the Prestige Oil Spill: seabird trophic ecology as indicator of long-term effects on the coastal marine ecosystem

Major oil spills can have long-term impacts since oil pollution does not only result in acute mortality of marine organisms, but also affects productivity levels, predator-prey dynamics, and damages habitats that support marine communities. However, despite the conservation implications of oil accidents, the monitoring and assessment of its lasting impacts still remains a difficult and daunting task. Here, we used European shags to evaluate the overall, lasting effects of the Prestige oil spill (2002) on the affected marine ecosystem. Using δ15N and Hg analysis, we trace temporal changes in feeding ecology potentially related to alterations of the food web due to the spill. Using climatic and oceanic data, we also investigate the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the chlorophyll a (Chl a) on the observed changes. Analysis of δ15N and Hg concentrations revealed that after the Prestige oil spill, shag chicks abruptly switched their trophic level from a diet based on a high percentage of demersal-benthic fish to a higher proportion of pelagic/semi-pelagic species. There was no evidence that Chl a, SST and NAO reflected any particular changes or severity in environmental conditions for any year or season that may explain the sudden change observed in trophic level. Thus, this study highlighted an impact on the marine food web for at least three years. Our results provide the best evidence to date of the long-term consequences of the Prestige oil spill. They also show how, regardless of wider oceanographic variability, lasting impacts on predator-prey dynamics can be assessed using biochemical markers. This is particularly useful if larger scale and longer term monitoring of all trophic levels is unfeasible due to limited funding or high ecosystem complexity.

Small Cell Carcinoma of the Urinary Bladder: A Retrospective, Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study of 107 Patients.

PURPOSE: Small cell carcinomas of the bladder (SCCB) account for fewer than 1% of all urinary bladder tumors. There is no consensus regarding the optimal treatment for SCCB. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Fifteen academic Rare Cancer Network medical centers contributed SCCB cases. The eligibility criteria were as follows: pure or mixed SCC; local, locoregional, and metastatic stages; and age ≥18 years. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were calculated from the date of diagnosis according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank and Wilcoxon tests were used to analyze survival as functions of clinical and therapeutic factors. RESULTS: The study included 107 patients (mean [±standard deviation, SD] age, 69.6 [±10.6] years; mean follow-up time, 4.4 years) with primary bladder SCC, with 66% of these patients having pure SCC. Seventy-two percent and 12% of the patients presented with T2-4N0M0 and T2-4N1-3M0 stages, respectively, and 16% presented with synchronous metastases. The most frequent curative treatments were radical surgery and chemotherapy, sequential chemotherapy and radiation therapy, and radical surgery alone. The median (interquartile range, IQR) OS and DFS times were 12.9 months (IQR, 7-32 months) and 9 months (IQR, 5-23 months), respectively. The metastatic, T2-4N0M0, and T2-4N1-3M0 groups differed significantly (P=.001) in terms of median OS and DFS. In a multivariate analysis, impaired creatinine clearance (OS and DFS), clinical stage (OS and DFS), a Karnofsky performance status <80 (OS), and pure SCC histology (OS) were independent and significant adverse prognostic factors. In the patients with nonmetastatic disease, the type of treatment (ie radical surgery with or without adjuvant chemotherapy vs conservative treatment) did not significantly influence OS or DFS (P=.7). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis for SCCB remains poor. The finding that radical cystectomy did not influence DFS or OS in the patients with nonmetastatic disease suggests that conservative treatment is appropriate in this situation.

Impact of the early use of immunomodulators or TNF antagonists on bowel damage and surgery in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM: To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS: Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS: The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN: We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS: Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.