On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2008, January 2009

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, skilled nursing facilities, residential care facilities, nursing facilities in hospitals, elder group homes and assisted living programs. The long-term care system in Iowa has changed significantly over the past 10 years. Local long-term care ombudsman programs in Iowa are now well established. Iowa still ranks near the bottom of 53 ombudsman programs in the nation for ratio of paid staff to residents with one ombudsman for each 7,400 residents compared to the national average of one ombudsman for each 2,174 residents. The Resident Advocate Committee Program remains stable at 2400 volunteers and Iowa continues to be the only state in the nation with this type of program. Because volunteers do not receive training as required by the Administration on Aging, volunteers are not certified volunteer ombudsmen and the work done by these volunteers cannot be included in Iowa’s annual federal reports. With the changing population living in long-term care facilities, this volunteer job is much more challenging than in the past. Helping to build a long-term care system in Iowa that provides individualized, person-directed quality care is the long-term goal for this office.

2008 Annual Report of the Iowa Railway Finance Authority

The Iowa Railway Finance Authority (IRFA) was created in 1980 by the 68th General Assembly to provide for the financing of rail facilities and to enhance and continue the operation of essential rail facilities. IRFA was authorized to offer financial assistance for the acquisition, rehabilitation, construction, refinancing, extension, replacement, maintenance, repair, or leasing of any rail facility. Rail Revolving Loan and Grant Program The 2005 legislative session amended Iowa Code 327H.20 by assigning all repayments of IRFA and other Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) rail assistance loans to the Rail Revolving Loan and Grant Program (RRLGP). In addition, the following annual appropriations were allocated to the fund: • FY 2007: $235,000 • FY 2008: $2 million • FY 2009: $2 million Since the creation of the RRLGP in 2005, IRFA has awarded funding to 23 projects totaling over $7.2 million in grants and loans in its three rounds of competitive funding. These projects have pledged to create 1,672 jobs within two years of project completion and 1,361 jobs have been retained. Funded projects are associated with over $2 billion in total private capital investment. In 2008, the IRFA Board directed all available funds be used to help repair railroads devastated by summer flooding. On July 31, $3.9 million in deferred payment loans were offered to seven Iowa based railroads to allow for immediate repair of rail beds, including the cost of materials, labor and equipment.

Comprehensive annual financial report of the State of Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Comprehensive annual financial report of the State of Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Comprehensive annual financial report of the University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, Iowa for the years ended June 30, 2008 and 2007

Comprehensive annual financial report of the University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, Iowa for the years ended June 30, 2008 and 2007

Annual Report of the Iowa Department of Revenue FY2008

Annual Report of the Iowa Department of Revenue FY2008

Addendum to Annual Report of the Iowa Department of Revenue FY2008

Addendum to Annual Report of the Iowa Department of Revenue FY2008

2007 Annual Compliance Report of the Iowa Public Drinking Water Program, Department of Natural Resources, June 2008

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 2007. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

Iowa Commission on the Status of African Americans Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2008

This publication of our 2008 Annual Report. This past year was beset with challenges and disappointments, but we were still able to forge ahead and register some significant accomplishments along the way. Our vision to organize our collective genius in a systematic way is beginning to take shape, and these efforts are reflected in this report. From various developments, like the making of a documentary and film of the Alexander Clark, Sr. story, to the partnership between the division and principal leadership in the faith community around the OCBI’s “Ten Point Plan”, one can envision the proverbial Black “phoenix” rising, renewed from the ashes of banal ideologies and practices. We will seize this opportunity, in conjunction with all of Iowa, to work together around the entire state, to produce a plan that reflects our collective interests, passions, and needs as we help create the Governor and Lt Governor’s vision of “One Iowa with One Unlimited Future.”

Iowa Commission on the Status of African Americans Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2006

A Public Intellectual recently suggested that I read the book Life Out Of Context by the very productive writer Walter Mosley. In this book, Mosley began to summarize a speech that was given by Harry Belafonte. Belafonte made a comparison between a particular Olympic relay race and the Civil Rights Movement. In the race, an experienced runner stumbled a little while passing the baton, and the race was lost. For Belafonte, this momentary slip was a metaphor for the failure of the Civil Rights Movement to “pass the baton” to the younger generation as “it moved past its original phase and into the latter part of the century.” Regardless of your views of the strengths and weaknesses of the Civil Rights Movement, I think all of us would agree that the current issues facing Black Iowa today--e.g., the need for economic development, increased educational achievement and more political involvement in our communities--demand our immediate attention and action. This urgency requires that we cross generational, class, and territorial boundaries within the state to collaborate among ourselves and with others to deal constructively with these issues. We cannot afford to have another “momentary slip.” Serving as the Administrator for ICSAA allows me to serve Black Iowa in a significant way, and Kimberly Cheeks and I in this Division look forward to the work ahead over the next several months and years. Working closely with Walter Reed, Director of the Department of Human Rights, along with so many others across this state, we are keenly aware that we are provided with a great opportunity to positively impact the quality of life for African-Americans in Iowa.

Annual Report of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission for Fiscal Year, 2007

FY2007 was a productive year for the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. Fourteen proposals were recommended for funding totaling over $390,000 in outlays. Included in the approved proposals were funds for the establishment and staffing of a Midwest Grape and Wine Institute at Iowa State University, a newly created viticulturist position at Des Moines Area Community College, funding for the first annual Mid-American Wine Competition, and marketing and promotion of four regional cooperative wine events and one wine trail. Commission funding supported a survey of commercial wine producers and grape growers and a new brochure on Iowa’s vineyards. A committee was formed to provide details for a Scholarship Program to aid vineyard and winery staff with the expenses of accredited coursework. Based on the survey conducted and from other governmental and industry sources, the Iowa grape and wine industry appears to continue to be very viable and growth continues at a strong pace. Wine produced in the state for 2007 was estimated at a market value in excess of $12.3 million. A tabulation of the budget revealed that just over $800,000 in wine gallonage tax appropriations have been received into the Grape and Wine Development Fund from 15 FY2003 through FY2007. Expenditures have totaled just over $607,000 during that same time. Just over 80% of expenditures have gone to “Technical” spending. Over time, funds invested in “Technical” programs will translate into an increasingly educated and institutionally-supported industry. Local, regional, and statewide events also appear to be increasing in popularity and the Commission plans to continue and increase support for these events. It is hoped the Scholarship Program will be up and running and funding will need to be appropriated for that project. The Commission also believes many projects and events will become more and more self sustaining as they develop and mature. As they continue to support Iowa’s grape and wine industry, the members of the Commission look forward to working with individuals, commercial enterprises, state and federal agencies, and industry-sponsored institutions in the upcoming year and in years to come.

Annual Report of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission for Fiscal Year, 2008

FY2008 was a productive year for the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. Sixteen proposals were recommended for funding from FY2008 funds and carryover totaling just over $396,000 in outlays. Included in the approved proposals were staffing and equipment for the Midwest Grape and Wine Industry Institute’s wine diagnostics laboratory at Iowa State University, continued support for the viticulturist position at Des Moines Area Community College, funding for the second annual Mid-American Wine Competition, and assistance for marketing and promotion of Ice coats an Iowa vineyard after a February 2008 ice storm. Photo by Mike White and courtesy of Iowa State University. 16 two wine trail associations and seven festivals and events. Commission funding supported a salaried position within IDALS to manage the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Fund and to serve as the Director of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. The Commission approved funding for a Scholarship Program. The formally created Scholarship Committee met twice in FY2008 to finalize details for the Program and to approve scholarships to twenty-six applicants to aid with the expenses of accredited coursework. Based on data collected by IDALS, the Iowa Department of Economic Development, the Iowa Alcoholic Beverages Division, and Iowa State University the Iowa grape and wine industry appears to continue to be very viable and growth continues at a strong pace. Presently, Iowa ranks 14th in the nation for the number of wineries, and wine produced in the state for 2008 was estimated at a market value in excess of $14.0 million. A tabulation of the budget revealed that just over $1,080,000 in wine gallonage tax appropriations and legislative appropriations have been deposited into the Grape and Wine Development Fund from FY2003 through FY2008. Removing encumbered funds, expenditures have totaled just over $942,500 during that same time. “Financial” funding – used for fostering public awareness and participation of industry events - increased from 6% of expenditures in FY2007 to 9% in FY2008. Used for support of research, education, and outreach, a little over 80% of expenditures and encumbered funds were earmarked for “Technical” spending. Over time, funds invested in “Technical” programs will translate into an increasingly educated and institutionally-supported industry. Local, regional, and statewide events also appeared to be increasing in popularity. The Commission was encouraged to see increased support for these events. It is hoped, too, that the Scholarship Program will provide needed funding to help meet the educational goals of the industry’s workforce. As they continue to support Iowa’s grape and wine industry, the Commissioners look forward to working with individuals, commercial enterprises, state and federal agencies, and industry-sponsored institutions in FY2009 and in years to come.

Annual report of the Iowa Citizen's Aide/Ombudsman, 2008

Annual report for the Iowa Citizen's Aide/Ombudsman Office.