Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

Il culto dell’Uno dal Risorgimento al fascismo

This article (here in English; the published version is in Italian) explores the political parameters surrounding the development of personality cults of leading figures in Italian history from the time of unification to the present. It focuses on the problems of linking the masses to the state, with particular reference to the weakness of the monarchy and the challenge of rival forces, such as those of the Church. It looks at how attempts were made to 'nationalise' the monarchy and create a cult of Victor Emmanuel II. It examines the construction of the cult of Garibaldi, and its relationship to the state. The article suggests that personality cults, while far from being unique to Italy, were seen as having special relevance in Italy given the weakness of the representative institutions and the sensed fragmentation of political life. The article concludes with an examination of the cult of Mussolini and some reflections on the situation since 1945.