An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions

We introduce an algebraic operator framework to study discounted penalty functions in renewal risk models. For inter-arrival and claim size distributions with rational Laplace transform, the usual integral equation is transformed into a boundary value problem, which is solved by symbolic techniques. The factorization of the differential operator can be lifted to the level of boundary value problems, amounting to iteratively solving first-order problems. This leads to an explicit expression for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the penalty function.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Impact of early valve surgery on outcome of Staphylococcus aureus prosthetic valve infective endocarditis: analysis in the International Collaboration of Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The effect of calculators on the numerical problem-solving skills and attitudes of primary students towards mathematics /

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect that calculators have on the attitudes and numerical problem-solving skills of primary students. The sample used for this research was one of convenience. The sample consisted of two grade 3 classes within the York Region District School Board. The students in the experimental group used calculators for this problem-solving unit. The students in the control group completed the same numerical problem-solving unit without the use of calculators. The pretest-posttest control group design was used for this study. All students involved in this study completed a computational pretest and an attitude pretest. At the end of the study, the students completed a computational posttest. Five students from the experimental group and five students from the control group received their posttests in the form of a taped interview. At the end of the unit, all students completed the attitude scale that they had received before the numerical problem-solving unit once again. Data for qualitative analysis included anecdotal observations, journal entries, and transcribed interviews. The constant comparative method was used to analyze the qualitative data. A t test was also performed on the data to determine whether there were changes in test and attitude scores between the control and experimental group. Overall, the findings of this study support the hypothesis that calculators improve the attitudes of primary students toward mathematics. Also, there is some evidence to suggest that calculators improve the computational skills of grade 3 students.

Gender bias in the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMMS) for Canadian students /

This study is a secondary data analysis of the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMSS) to determine if there is a gender bias, unbalanced number of items suited to the cognitive skill of one gender, and to compare performance by location. Results of the Grade 8, math portion of the test were examined. Items were coded as verbal, spatial, verbal /spatial or neither and as conventional or unconventional. A Kruskal- Wallis was completed for each category, comparing performance of students from Ontario, Quebec, and Singapore. A Factor Analysis was completed to determine if there were item categories with similar characteristics. Gender differences favouring males were found in the verbal conventional category for Canadian students and in the spatial conventional category for students in Quebec. The greatest differences were by location, as students in Singapore outperformed students from Canada in all areas except for the spatial unconventional category. Finally, whether an item is conventional or unconventional is more important than whether the item is verbal or spatial. Results show the importance of fair assessment for the genders in both the classroom and on standardized tests.

Conformational analysis of antibody binding site using EDMA methods /

Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA) methods are used to distinguish whether or not significant difference exists between conformational samples of antibody complementarity determining region (CDR) loops, isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly (LI, L3 and H3) obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. After the significant difference is detected, the specific inter-Ca distance which contributes to the difference is identified using EDMA.The estimated and improved mean forms of the conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI loop in three-loop assembly, CDR loops of antibody binding site, are described using EDMA and distance geometry (DGEOM). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time the EDMA methods are used to analyze conformational samples of molecules obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Therefore, validations of the EDMA methods using both positive control and negative control tests for the conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly must be done. The EDMA-I bootstrap null hypothesis tests showed false positive results for the comparison of six samples of the isolated LI loop and true positive results for comparison of conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly. The bootstrap confidence interval tests revealed true negative results for comparisons of six samples of the isolated LI loop, and false negative results for the conformational comparisons between isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly. Different conformational sample sizes are further explored by combining the samples of isolated LI loop to increase the sample size, or by clustering the sample using self-organizing map (SOM) to narrow the conformational distribution of the samples being comparedmolecular conformations. However, there is no improvement made for both bootstrap null hypothesis and confidence interval tests. These results show that more work is required before EDMA methods can be used reliably as a method for comparison of samples obtained by Monte Carlo simulations.

An examination of grade three mathematics textbooks for problem solving strategies

Three grade three mathematics textbooks were selected arbitrarily (every other) from a total of six currently used in the schools of Ontario. These textbooks were examined through content analysis in order to determine the extent (i. e., the frequency of occurrence) to which problem solving strategies appear in the problems and exercises of grade three mathematics textbooks, and how well they carry through the Ministry's educational goals set out in The Formative Years. Based on Polya's heuristic model, a checklist was developed by the researcher. The checklist had two main categories, textbook problems and process problems and a finer classification according to the difficulty level of a textbook problem; also six commonly used problem solving strategies for the analysis of a process problem. Topics to be analyzed were selected from the subject guideline The Formative Years, and the same topics were selected from each textbook. Frequencies of analyzed problems and exercises were compiled and tabulated textbook by textbook and topic by topic. In making comparisons, simple frequency count and percentage were used in the absence of any known criteria available for judging highor low frequency. Each textbook was coded by three coders trained to use the checklist. The results of analysis showed that while there were large numbers of exercises in each textbook, not very many were framed as problems according to Polya' s model and that process problems form a small fraction of the number of analyzed problems and exercises. There was no pattern observed as to the systematic placement of problems in the textbooks.

The effects of teaching a mathematics problem solving strategy on the problem solving ability of grade nine students

Forty grade 9 students were selected from a small rural board in southern Ontario. The students were in two classes and were treated as two groups. The treatment group received instruction in the Logical Numerical Problem Solving Strategy every day for 37 minutes over a 6 week period. The control group received instruction in problem solving without this strategy over the same time period. Then the control group received the treat~ent and the treatment group received the instruction without the strategy. Quite a large variance was found in the problem solving ability of students in grade 9. It was also found that the growth of the problem solving ability achievement of students could be measured using growth strands based upon the results of the pilot study. The analysis of the results of the study using t-tests and a MANOVA demonstrated that the teaching of the strategy did not significaritly (at p s 0.05) increase the problem solving achievement of the students. However, there was an encouraging trend seen in the data.

Teachers' professional learning within communities of mathematics-for-teaching practice

Ontario bansho is an emergent mathematics instructional strategy used by teachers working within communities of practice that has been deemed to have a transformational effect on teachers' professional learning of mathematics. This study sought to answer the following question: How does teachers' implementation of Ontario bansho within their communities of practice inform their professional learning process concerning mathematics-for-teaching? Two other key questions also guided the study: What processes support teachers' professional learning of content-for-teaching? What conditions support teachers' professional learning of content-for-teaching? The study followed an interpretive phenomenological approach to collect data using a purposive sampling of teachers as participants. The researcher conducted interviews and followed an interpretive approach to data analysis to investigate how teachers construct meaning and create interpretations through their social interactions. The study developed a model of professional learning made up of 3 processes, informing with resources, engaging with students, and visualizing and schematizing in which the participants engaged and 2 conditions, ownership and community that supported the 3 processes. The 3 processes occur in ways that are complex, recursive, nonpredictable, and contextual. This model provides a framework for facilitators and leaders to plan for effective, content-relevant professional learning by placing teachers, students, and their learning at the heart of professional learning.

Introduction to engineering : a case study of an interdisciplinary course in Mathematics, Science and Technology

This thesis research was a qualitative case study of a single class of Interdisciplinary Studies: Introduction to Engineering taught in a secondary school. The study endeavoured to explore students' experiences in and perceptions of the course, and to investigate the viability of engineering as an interdisciplinary theme at the secondary school level. Data were collected in the form of student questionnaires, the researcher's observations and reflections, and artefacts representative of students' work. Data analysis was performed by coding textual data and classifying text segments into common themes. The themes that emerged from the data were aligned with facets of interdisciplinary study, including making connections, project-based learning, and student engagement and affective outcomes. The findings of the study showed that students were positive about their experiences in the course, and enjoyed its project-driven nature. Content from mathematics, physics, and technological design was easily integrated under the umbrella of engineering. Students felt that the opportunity to develop problem solving and teamwork skills were two of the most important aspects of the course and could be relevant not only for engineering, but for other disciplines or their day-to-day lives after secondary school. The study concluded that engineering education in secondary school can be a worthwhile experience for a variety of students and not just those intending postsecondary study in engineering. This has implications for the inclusion of engineering in the secondary school curriculum and can inform the practice of curriculum planners at the school, school board, and provincial levels. Suggested directions for further research include classroom-based action research in the areas of technological education, engineering education in secondary school, and interdisciplinary education.

Haplotype analysis suggest common founders in carriers of the recurrent BRCA2 mutation, 3398delAAAAG, in French Canadian hereditary breast and/ovarian cancer families

Affiliation: Faculté de médicine, Université de Montréal