Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Effects of Reduced Intersection Lighting on Nighttime Accident Frequency, HR-1003A, 1977

The first phase of the study of intersection lighting and accidents conducted using data from 1964 through 1971 yielded the conclusion that the installation of intersection lighting reduced the nighttime accident frequency by 52%. With this conclusion, this project (the second phase), was initiated to determine the relative benefit of a higher level of lighting as opposed to minimum lighting. Twenty pairs of intersections with similar geometrics were selected. Some lights were turned out at one intersection of each pair to produce a lighting level differential. Based on the results of this research, the lighting level of lighted rural at-grade intersections does not have a significant effect on the accident frequency. At the nineteen "reduced lighting" intersections, the number of lighted luminaires was reduced from 101 to 46 with a corresponding reduction in energy consumption of over 100,000 Kilowatt hours per year. This energy conservation measure could reduce consumption by an estimated 1,000,000 Kilowatt hours per year if initiated on more than 200 earlier primary, rural installations.

Constitution, Diversification and Normalisation of a Health Problem: Organising the Fight against AIDS in Switzerland (1984-2005)

The article traces the formation, diversification and normalization of the AIDS cause in Switzerland. Particular emphasis is placed on interactions between the medical field, public authorities and associative space, the latter being understood as the place where individual and collective actors compete to define the cause. The authors argue that the major phases in the structuring of the struggle, the pace of state intervention and the creation of a multi-organizational field, can only be understood if one adopts a 'configurational perspective' attentive to the manner in which, in a given context and under the effect of particular constraints, key actors strategically interact and contribute to transforming their environment and their chances of reaching their goals. This approach takes into account the changing socio-biological characteristics of those who have committed themselves to the cause. In turn, internal movement divisions about how to respond to the epidemic as well as the changing perceptions of the disease have modified the opportunities for commitment, encouraging certain individual kinds of people and excluding others.

Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptive change: on the intersection of landscape genomics and theoretical population genetics

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Rural Expressway Intersection Synthesis of Practice and Crash Analysis, 2004

This report presents a national synthesis of rural expressway, two-way stop -controlled (TWSC) intersection safety strategies and intersection designs and an analysis of Iowa expressway TWSC intersection crash characteristics. A rural expressway is a multi-lane highway with a divided median and with mostly at -grade intersections, although some intersections may be grade separated. The synthesis of intersection strategies is conducted in two parts. The first is a literature review and the second part is a national survey of strategies currently being applied by state transportation agencies. The characterization of crash patterns at TWSC expressway intersections is examined through the analysis of 5 years of crash data at 644 intersections.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Road Safety Audit for Union County IA 25 from the WCL of Creston to North H-24 Intersection, 2008

In April 2008 a preliminary investigation of fatal and major injury crashes on Iowa’s primary road system from 2001 through 2007 was conducted by the Iowa Department of Transportation, Office of Traffic and Safety. A mapping of these data revealed an apparent concentration of these serious crashes on a section of Iowa 25 north of Creston. Based on this information, a road safety audit of this roadway section was requested by the Office of Traffic and Safety. Iowa 25 is a two-lane asphaltic concrete pavement roadway, 22 ft in width with approximately 6 ft wide granular shoulders. Originally constructed in 1939, the roadway was last rehabilitated in 1996 with a 4-in. asphalt overlay. Except for shoulder paving through a curve area, no additional work beyond routine maintenance has been accomplished in the section. The 2004 traffic map indicates that IA 25 has a traffic volume of approximately 2070 vehicles per day with 160 commercial vehicles. The posted speed is 55 mph. This report contains a discussion of audit team findings, crash and roadway data, and recommendations for possible mitigation of safety concerns for this roadway section.

Road Safety Audit for the US 61/Harrison Street and West Locust Street Intersection in Davenport-Scott County, Iowa, 2008

On the October 7 and 8, 2008, a road safety audit was conducted for the intersection of US 61/Harrison Street and West Locust Street in Davenport, Iowa. US 61/Harrison Street is a one-way street and a principal arterial route through Davenport, with three southbound lanes. Locust Street is a four-lane, two-way minor arterial running across the city from west to east. The last major improvement at this intersection was implemented approximately 20 years ago. The Iowa Department of Transportation requested a safety audit of this intersection in response to a high incidence of crashes at the location over the past several years, in view of the fact that no major improvements are anticipated for this intersection in the immediate future. The road safety audit team discussed current conditions at the intersection and reviewed the last seven years of crash data. The team also made daytime and nighttime field visits to the intersection to examine field conditions and observe traffic flow and crossing guard operations with younger pedestrians. After discussing key issues, the road safety audit team drew conclusions and suggested possible enforcement, engineering, public information, and educational strategies for mitigation.

Road Safety Audit for County Road X-37, from the Intersection of G-62 to the East Corporate Limits of Columbus City in Louisa County, Iowa, 2009

A road safety audit was conducted for a 7.75 mile section of County Road X-37 in Louisa County, Iowa. In 2006, the average annual daily traffic on this roadway was found to be 680 vehicles per day. Using crash data from 2001 to 2007, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) has identified this roadway as being in the highest 5% of local rural roads in Iowa for single-vehicle runoff- road crashes. Considering these safety data, the Louisa County Engineer requested that a road safety audit be conducted to identify areas of safety concerns and recommend low-cost mitigation to address those concerns. Staff and officials from the Iowa DOT, Governor’s Traffic Safety Bureau, Federal Highway Administration, Institute for Transportation, and local law enforcement and transportation agencies met to review crash data and discuss potential safety improvements to this segment of X-37. This report outlines the findings and recommendations of the road safety audit team to address the safety concerns on this X-37 corridor and explain several selected mitigation strategies.

Road Safety Audit for Intersection of US 218 and County Road C-57 (West Cedar Wapsi Road) in Black Hawk County, Iowa, 2009

Beginning on June 22, 2009, a road safety audit was initiated for the intersection of US 218 and County Road C-57 in Black Hawk County, Iowa. Due to the traffic volumes and the number of conflicting traffic movements on these two roadways, this intersection has developed a crash history that concerns the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Iowa State Patrol, and local agencies. This intersection is ranked seventh in Iowa for the highest number of at-grade expressway intersection crashes. Considering this, Black Hawk County and the Iowa DOT requested that a road safety audit be conducted to address the safety concerns and recommend possible mitigation strategies.