Linking soil properties and pre-Columbian agricultural strategies in the Bolivian lowlands: The case of raised fields in Exaltación

This paper aims to further our understanding of pre-Columbian agricultural systems in the Llanos de Moxos, Bolivia. Three different types of raised fields co-existing in the same site near the community of Exaltación, in north-western Beni, were studied. The morphology, texture and geochemistry of the soils of these fields and the surrounding area were analysed. Differences in field design have often been associated with the diversity of cultural practices. Our results suggest that in the study area differences in field shape, height and layout are primarily the result of an adaptation to the local edaphology. By using the technology of raised fields, pre-Columbian people were able to drain and cultivate soils with very different characteristics, making the land suitable for agriculture and possibly different crops. This study also shows that some fields in the Llanos de Moxos were built to prolong the presence of water, allowing an additional cultivation period in the dry season and/or in times of drought. Nevertheless, the nature of the highly weathered soils suggests that raised fields were not able to support large populations and their management required long fallow periods.

Synthesis of Semi-Natural Grassland Vegetation of a Biogeographically Heterogeneous Area: Mesophilous Species-Rich Meadows in Switzerland

For a hundred years semi-natural species-rich meadow vegetation has been described from various areas of Switzerland. The first description dates from 1892 by Stebler and Schröter. In the present study, relevés of 65 semi-natural mesophilous meadow associations and communities reported by 26 authors, which were collected throughout the century, are summarized. An increasing number of descriptions dating from the 1980s and 1990s is included. A numerical classification of these 65 types resulted in four main groups of meadow-types. When compared with the existing literature of alliances a high correlation is found with the Polygono-Trisetion Br.-Bl. et R. Tx. ex Marshall 1947, the Arrhenatherion W. Koch 1926, the Agrostio-Festucion Puscaru et al. 1956, the Mesobromion Br.-Bl. et Moor 1938 em. Oberdorfer 1957, and with the Chrysopogonetum W. Koch 1943. The Agrostio-Festucion is characteristic for the montane belt in southern Switzerland and was until recently poorly known. This alliance is discussed in detail. Some classifications of meadow types by the original authors had to be rearranged for the present purpose. The present classification coincides well with the one Stebler and Schröter gave in 1892. Today, after a century of intensive changes in land use, their four main types are still valid.

An outbreak of Multi-Drug Resistant Acinetobacter in the burn intensive care unit of a large tertiary care center

Risk factors for Multi-Drug Resistant Acinetobacter (MDRA) acquisition were studied in patients in a burn intensive care unit (ICU) where there was an outbreak of MDRA. Forty cases were matched with eighty controls based on length of stay in the Burn ICU and statistical analysis was performed on data for several different variables. Matched analysis showed that mechanical ventilation, transport ventilation, number of intubations, number of bronchoscopy procedures, total body surface area burn, and prior Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonization were all significant risk factors for MDRA acquisition. ^ MDRA remains a significant threat to the burn population. Treatment for burn patients with MDRA is challenging as resistance to antibiotics continues to increase. This study underlined the need to closely monitor the most critically ill ventilated patients during an outbreak of MDRA as they are the most at risk for MDRA acquisition.^

Prediction of sepsis in the burn intensive care unit patient

Sepsis is a significant cause for multiple organ failure and death in the burn patient, yet identification in this population is confounded by chronic hypermetabolism and impaired immune function. The purpose of this study was twofold: 1) determine the ability of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria to predict sepsis in the burn patient; and 2) develop a model representing the best combination of clinical predictors associated with sepsis in the same population. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit (ICU) was conducted for the period January 2005 to September 2010. Blood culture results were paired with clinical condition: "positive-sick"; "negative-sick", and "screening-not sick". Data were collected for the 72 hours prior to each blood culture. The most significant predictors were evaluated using logistic regression, Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and ROC area under the curve (AUC) analyses to assess model predictive ability. Bootstrapping methods were employed to evaluate potential model over-fitting. Fifty-nine subjects were included, representing 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not found to be associated with culture type, with an average of 98% of subjects meeting criteria in the 3 days prior. ABA sepsis criteria were significantly different among culture type only on the day prior (p = 0.004). The variables identified for the model included: heart rate>130 beats/min, mean blood pressure<60 mmHg, base deficit<-6 mEq/L, temperature>36°C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose>150 mg/d1. The model was significant in predicting "positive culture-sick" and sepsis state, with AUC of 0.775 (p < 0.001) and 0.714 (p < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (p = 0.028) and 0.597 (p = .035), respectively. SIRS criteria are not appropriate for identifying sepsis in the burn population. The ABA criteria perform better, but only for the day prior to positive blood culture results. The time period useful to diagnose sepsis using clinical criteria may be limited to 24 hours. A combination of predictors is superior to individual variable trends, yet algorithms or computer support will be necessary for the clinician to find such models useful. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Factors that influence the decision to produce exportables in the Chilean agricultural sector

This study analyzes there lative importance of the factors that influence the decision to produce for foreign markets in the Chilean agricultural sector. Using data obtained from personal interviews with 368 farmers, the market/production decision was estimated using a multinomial logit model. Three market/production alternatives were analyzed: production aimed for the external market, production for the internal market but with expectations of being exported, and production targeted only for the internal market. Marginal effects, odds ratios and predicted probabilities were used to identify the relevance of each variable. The results showed that a producer that is male, with a higher educational level, that does not own the land, but rents it, whose farm has irrigation and is located in an area that has a high concentration of exporting producers, will have a high probability of producing exportables. However, the factor that has the highest impact on producing for the external market is the geographic concentration of exporting producers, that is, an export spillover effect. Indeed, when the concentration change from 0 to its maximum (0.26), the odds of producing exportables rather than producing traditional products increases by a factor of 70 (against a factor of 10 in the case of irrigation).

Mapping decadal land cover changes in the woodlands of north eastern Namibia using the Landsat satellite archive (1975-2014)

Woodland savannahs provide essential ecosystem functions and services to communities. On the African continent, they are widely utilized and converted to intensive land uses. This study investigates the land cover changes of 108,038 km**2 in NE Namibia using multi-temporal, multi-sensor Landsat imagery, at decadal intervals from 1975 to 2014, with a post-classification change detection method and supervised Regression Tree classifiers. We discuss likely impacts of land tenure and reforms over the past four decades on changes in land use and land cover. These changes included losses, gains and exchanges between predominant land cover classes. Exchanges comprised logical conversions between woodland and agricultural classes, implying woodland clearing for arable farming, cropland abandonment and vegetation succession. The most dominant change was a reduction in the area of the woodland class due to the expansion of the agricultural class, specifically, small-scale cereal and pastoral production. Woodland area decreased from 90% of the study area in 1975 to 83% in 2014, while cleared land increased from 9% to 14%. We found that the main land cover changes are conversion from woodland to agricultural and urban land uses, driven by urban expansion and woodland clearing for subsistence-based agriculture and pastoralism.

Agricultural pesticide in sediment cores from the Lac de Saint-André, France

Agricultural pesticide use has increased worldwide during the last several decades, but the long-term fate, storage, and transfer dynamics of pesticides in a changing environment are poorly understood. Many pesticides have been progressively banned, but in numerous cases, these molecules are stable and may persist in soils, sediments, and ice. Many studies have addressed the question of their possible remobilization as a result of global change. In this article, we present a retro-observation approach based on lake sediment records to monitor micropollutants and to evaluate the long-term succession and diffuse transfer of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticide treatments in a vineyard catchment in France. The sediment allows for a reliable reconstruction of past pesticide use through time, validated by the historical introduction, use, and banning of these organic and inorganic pesticides in local vineyards. Our results also revealed how changes in these practices affect storage conditions and, consequently, the pesticides' transfer dynamics. For example, the use of postemergence herbicides (glyphosate), which induce an increase in soil erosion, led to a release of a banned remnant pesticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, DDT), which had been previously stored in vineyard soil, back into the environment. Management strategies of ecotoxicological risk would be well served by recognition of the diversity of compounds stored in various environmental sinks, such as agriculture soil, and their capability to become sources when environmental conditions change.

(Tables 1, 2) Permafrost borehole characteristics in the Nordic Area during the IPY 2007-2009

This paper provides a snapshot of the permafrost thermal state in the Nordic area obtained during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2009. Several intensive research campaigns were undertaken within a variety of projects in the Nordic countries to obtain this snapshot. We demonstrate for Scandinavia that both lowland permafrost in palsas and peat plateaus, and large areas of permafrost in the mountains are at temperatures close to 0°C, which makes them sensitive to climatic changes. In Svalbard and northeast Greenland, and also in the highest parts of the mountains in the rest of the Nordic area, the permafrost is somewhat colder, but still only a few degrees below the freezing point. The observations presented from the network of boreholes, more than half of which were established during the IPY, provide an important baseline to assess how future predicted climatic changes may affect the permafrost thermal state in the Nordic area. Time series of active-layer thickness and permafrost temperature conditions in the Nordic area, which are generally only 10 years in length, show generally increasing active-layer depths and rising permafrost temperatures.

Bottom invertebrates and madreporarian corals in the Canary upwelling area

Composition and distribution of bottom fauna, especially scleractinian and gorgonarian corals, collected in the area of the Canary upwelling are discussed. Five species of scleractinian corals and one gorgonarian coral were found. Dasmosmillia lymani, Flabellum angulare, Leptopsammia chevalieri, and Bebryce mollis are new in the investigated area. It is shown that bottom fauna of the Canary upwelling area could be regarded as intermediate between the ordinary shallow-water community and extremely oligomixed fauna of intensive upwellings.

Regional differences regarding land tenancy in rural Rwanda, with special reference to sharecropping in a coffee production area

This paper examines land tenancy systems and tenant contracts in Rwanda, with respect to socioeconomic contexts. Our research in southern and eastern Rwanda produced data suggesting that land borrowing with fixed rents has been generally practiced, and that rent levels have been low in comparison to expected revenues from field production. In the western areas of coffee production, however, the practice of sharecropping has recently appeared. This system is advantageous to landowners, as they are able to acquire half of the harvests; in addition, the fixed rent levels in this region are much higher than those of other regions. In the southern and eastern regions, because land borrowing with fixed rents has been the only tenancy pattern and rent levels have remained low, the economic situation should be interpreted in the context of a continuing traditional Rwandan land tenure system. In contrast, in the western coffee production area, the soaring of fixed rents and the emergence of sharecropping have been brought about by high pressures for land use, which were caused not only by a population increase but also by the development of cash crop production and the existence of a labor exchange system. The increase in rent levels has therefore been offset by a corresponding increase in agricultural productivity.

Participation in farmer's cooperatives and its effects on agricultural incomes : evidence from vegetable-producing areas in China

Chinese agricultural cooperatives, called Farmer's Professional Cooperatives (FPCs), are expected to become a major tool to facilitate agro-industrialization for small farmers through the diffusion of new technologies, the supply of high-quality agricultural inputs and the marketing of their products. This study compares FPC participants with vegetable-producing non-participants and grain farmers in vegetable-producing areas in rural China to investigate the treatment effect of participation in FPCs as well as implementation of vegetable cultivation. I adopt parametric and nonparametric approaches to precisely estimate the treatment effects. Estimated results indicate no significant difference between participants and non-participants of FPCs on agricultural net income in both parametric and non-parametric estimations. In contrast, the comparison between vegetable and grain farmers using propensity score matching (PSM) reveals that the treatment effect of vegetable cultivation is significantly positive for total and agricultural incomes, although vegetable cultivation involves more labor-intensive efforts. These results indicate that it is the implementation of vegetable cultivation rather than the participation in an FPC that enhances the economic welfare of farmers, due to the non-excludability of FPCs' services as well as the risks involved in vegetable cultivation.

Gold Ores Related to Shear Zones, West Santa Comba Fervenza Area (Galicia, NW Spain): A Mineralogical Study

Recent research has discovered high-grade Au ores in NNE-SSW trending shear zones in metamorphic proterozoic and palaeozoic terranes, some 40 km NW of Santiago de Compostela (NW Spain). The orebodies are bound to late-stage Hercynian structures, mainly due to brittle deformation, which are superimposed on earlier ductile shear zones, cutting through various catazonal lithologies, including ortho- and paragneisses, amphibolites, eclogites, and granites. Ore mineralogy, alteration, and ore textures define a frame whose main features are common to all prospects in the area. Main minerals are arsenopyrite and pyrite - accompanied by quartz, adularia, sericite, + (tourmaline, chlorite, carbonates, graphite), as main gangue minerals - with subordinate amounts of boulangerite, bismuthinite, kobellite, jamesonite, chalcopyrite, marcasite, galena, sphalerite, rutile, titanite, scheelite, beryl, fluorite, and minor native gold, electrum, native bismuth, fahlore, pyrrhotite, mackinawite, etc., defining a meso-catathermal paragenesis. Detailed microscopic study allows the author to propose a general descriptive scheme of textural classification for this type of ore. Most of the ores fill open spaces or veins, seal cracks or cement breccias; disseminated ores with replacement features related to alteration (mainly silicification, sericitization, and adularization) are also observed. Intensive and repeated cataclasis is a common feature of many ores, suggesting successive events of brittle deformation, hydrothermal flow, and ore precipitation. Gold may be transported and accumulated in any of these events, but tends to be concentrated in later ones. The origin of the gold ores is explained in terms of hydrotherreal discharge, associated with mainly brittle deformation and possibly related to granitic magmas, in the global tectonic frame of crustal evolution of West Galicia. The mineralogical and textural study suggests some criteria which will be of practical value for exploration and for ore processing. Ore grades can be improved by flotation of arsenopyrite. Non-conventional methods, such as pressure or bacterial leaching, may subsequently obtain a residue enriched in gold.

Techniques for Area Discretization and Coverage in Aerial Photography for Precision Agriculture employing mini quad-rotors

Remote sensed imagery acquired with mini aerial vehicles, in conjunction with GIS technology enable a meticulous analysis from surveyed agricultural sites. This paper sums up the ongoing work in area discretization and coverage with mini quad-­?rotors applied to Precision Agriculture practices under the project RHEA.