Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Predicting the growth response to thinning for Scots pine stands using individual-tree growth models

Summary

Selective requirement for c-Myc at an early stage of V(alpha)14i NKT cell development.

Valpha14 invariant (Valpha14i) NKT cells are a subset of regulatory T cells that utilize a semi-invariant TCR to recognize glycolipids associated with monomorphic CD1d molecules. During development in the thymus, CD4(+)CD8(+) Valpha14i NKT precursors recognizing endogenous CD1d-associated glycolipids on other CD4(+)CD8(+) thymocytes are selected to undergo a maturation program involving sequential expression of CD44 and NK-related markers such as NK1.1. The molecular requirements for Valpha14i NKT cell maturation, particularly at early developmental stages, remain poorly understood. In this study, we show that CD4-Cre-mediated T cell-specific inactivation of c-Myc, a broadly expressed transcription factor with a wide range of biological activities, selectively impairs Valpha14i NKT cell development without perturbing the development of conventional T cells. In the absence of c-Myc, Valpha14i NKT cell precursors are blocked at an immature CD44(low)NK1.1(-) stage in a cell autonomous fashion. Residual c-Myc-deficient immature Valpha14i NKT cells appear to proliferate normally, cannot be rescued by transgenic expression of BCL-2, and exhibit characteristic features of immature Valpha14i NKT cells such as high levels of preformed IL-4 mRNA and the transcription factor promyelocytic leukemia zinc finger. Collectively our data identify c-Myc as a critical transcription factor that selectively acts early in Valpha14i NKT cell development to promote progression beyond the CD44(low)NK1.1(-) precursor stage.

2011 Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) Study A report to the Iowa Legislature, per 2011 Iowa Code Section 307.31

The transportation system is in demand 24/7 and 365 days a year irrespective of neither the weather nor the conditions. Iowa’s transportation system is an integral and essential part of society serving commerce and daily functions of all Iowans across the state. A high quality transportation system serves as the artery for economic activity and, the condition of the infrastructure is a key element for our future growth opportunities. A key component of Iowa’s transportation system is the public roadway system owned and maintained by the state, cities and counties. In order to regularly re-evaluate the conditions of Iowa’s public roadway infrastructure and assess the ability of existing revenues to meet the needs of the system, the Iowa Department of Transportation’s 2006 Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) report to the legislature included a recommendation that a study be conducted every five years. That recommendation was included in legislation adopted in 2007 and signed into law. The law specifically requires the following (2011 Iowa Code Section 307.31): •“The department shall periodically review the current revenue levels of the road use tax fund and the sufficiency of those revenues for the projected construction and maintenance needs of city, county, and state governments in the future. The department shall submit a written report to the general assembly regarding its findings by December 31 every five years, beginning in 2011. The report may include recommendations concerning funding levels needed to support the future mobility and accessibility for users of Iowa's public road system.” •“The department shall evaluate alternative funding sources for road maintenance and construction and report to the general assembly at least every five years on the advantages and disadvantages and the viability of alternative funding mechanisms.” Consistent with this requirement, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) has prepared this study. Recognizing the importance of actively engaging with the public and transportation stakeholders in any discussion of public roadway conditions and needs, Governor Terry E. Branstad announced on March 8, 2011, the creation of, and appointments to, the Governor’s Transportation 2020 Citizen Advisory Commission (CAC). The CAC was tasked with assisting the Iowa DOT as they assess the condition of Iowa’s roadway system and evaluate current and future funding available to best address system needs. In particular the CAC was directed to gather input from the public and stakeholders regarding the condition of Iowa’s public roadway system, the impact of that system, whether additional funding is needed to maintain/improve the system, and, if so, what funding mechanisms ought to be considered. With this input, the CAC prepared a report and recommendations that were presented to Governor Branstad and the Iowa DOT in November 2011 for use in the development of this study. The CAC’s report is available at www.iowadot.gov/transportation2020/pdfs/CAC%20REPORT%20FINAL%20110211.pdf. The CAC’s report was developed utilizing analysis and information from the Iowa DOT. Therefore, the report forms the basis for this study and the two documents are very similar. Iowa is fortunate to have an extensive public roadway system that provides access to all areas of the state and facilitates the efficient movement of goods and people. However, it is also a tremendous challenge for the state, cities and counties to maintain and improve this system given flattening revenue, lost buying power, changing demands on the system, severe weather, and an aging system. This challenge didn’t appear overnight and for the last decade many studies have been completed to look into the situation and the legislature has taken significant action to begin addressing the situation. In addition, the Iowa DOT and Iowa’s cities and counties have worked jointly and independently to increase efficiency and streamline operations. All of these actions have been successful and resulted in significant changes; however, it is apparent much more needs to be done. A well-maintained, high-quality transportation system reduces transportation costs and provides consistent and reliable service. These are all factors that are critical in the evaluation companies undertake when deciding where to expand or locate new developments. The CAC and Iowa DOT heard from many Iowans that additional investment in Iowa’s roadway system is vital to support existing jobs and continued job creation in the state of Iowa. Beginning June 2011, the CAC met regularly to review material and discuss potential recommendations to address Iowa’s roadway funding challenges. This effort included extensive public outreach with meetings held in seven locations across Iowa and through a Transportation 2020 website hosted by the Iowa DOT (www.iowadot.gov/transportation2020). Over 500 people attended the public meetings held through the months of August and September, with 198 providing verbal or written comment at the meetings or through the website. Comments were received from a wide array of individuals. The public comments demonstrated overwhelming support for increased funding for Iowa’s roads. Through the public input process, several guiding principles were established to guide the development of recommendations. Those guiding principles are: • Additional revenues are restricted for road and bridge improvements only, like 95 percent of the current state road revenue is currently. This includes the fuel tax and registration fees. • State and local governments continue to streamline and become more efficient, both individually and by looking for ways to do things collectively. • User fee concept is preserved, where those who use the roads pay for them, including non¬residents. • Revenue-generating methods equitable across users. • Increase revenue generating mechanisms that are viable now but begin to implement and set the stage for longer-term solutions that bring equity and stability to road funding. • Continue Iowa’s long standing tradition of state roadway financing coming from pay-as-you-go financing. Iowa must not fall into the situation that other states are currently facing where the majority of their new program dollars are utilized to pay the debt service of past bonding. Based on the analysis of Iowa’s public roadway needs and revenue and the extensive work of the Governor’s Transportation 2020 Citizen Advisory Commission, the Iowa DOT has identified specific recommendations. The recommendations follow very closely the recommendations of the CAC (CAC recommendations from their report are repeated in Appendix B). Following is a summary of the recommendations which are fully documented beginning on page 21. 1. Through a combination of efficiency savings and increased revenue, a minimum of $215 million of revenue per year should be generated to meet Iowa’s critical roadway needs. 2. The Code of Iowa should be changed to require the study of the sufficiency of the state’s road funds to meet the road system’s needs every two years instead of every five years to coincide with the biennial legislative budget appropriation schedule. 3.Modify the current registration fee for electric vehicles to be based on weight and value using the same formula that applies to most passenger vehicles. 4.Consistent with existing Code of Iowa requirements, new funding should go to the TIME-21 Fund up to the cap ($225 million) and remaining new funding should be distributed consistent with the Road Use Tax Fund distribution formula. 5.The CAC recommended the Iowa DOT at least annually convene meetings with cities and counties to review the operation, maintenance and improvement of Iowa’s public roadway system to identify ways to jointly increase efficiency. In direct response to this recommendation, Governor Branstad directed the Iowa DOT to begin this effort immediately with a target of identifying $50 million of efficiency savings that can be captured from the over $1 billion of state revenue already provided to the Iowa DOT and Iowa’s cities and counties to administer, maintain and improve Iowa’s public roadway system. This would build upon past joint and individual actions that have reduced administrative costs and resulted in increased funding for improvement of Iowa’s public roadway system. Efficiency actions should be quantified, measured and reported to the public on a regular basis. 6.By June 30, 2012, Iowa DOT should complete a study of vehicles and equipment that use Iowa’s public roadway system but pay no user fees or substantially lower user fees than other vehicles and equipment.

Individual-tree basal area growth models for scots pine, pubescent birch and Norway spruce on drained peatlands in Finland

Summary

Intravitreal ranibizumab for age-related macular degeneration - optical coherence tomography guided retreatment intervals and their intra- and inter-individual variability

PURPOSE:To determine whether the need for retreatment after an initial loading phase of 3 monthly intravitreal injections of ranibizumab shows an intra-individual regular rhythm and to what degree it varies between different patients.SETTING:Prospective mono-centre cohort study.METHODS:Prospective study with 42 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD), treatment na?ve, giving informed consent. Loading dose of 3 monthly doses of ranibizumab (0,5mg), followed by a 12 months pro re nata (PRN) regimen according to early exudative signs on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (HD-OCT Cirrus Zeiss?, cube 512x126). The follow-up visits were intensified (week 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20, 24, etc after each injection) in order to detect exudative recurrences early, and injection followed within 3 days in cases of subretinal fluid, or intraretinal cysts, or central thickness increase of >50?m. Intervals were calculated between injections and the following recurrence was calculated for the 12 month follow-up with PRN treatment. Variability was expressed as standard deviation (SD). RESULTS Visual acuity (VA) improved from a mean ETDRS letter score of 61.6 (SD 10.8) at baseline to 68.0 (SD 10.2, +6.4 letters) at month 3 and increased further to 74.7 (SD 9.0, +13.1 letters from baseline) at month 12. The 15 patients who have completed the study by October 2010 showed maintenance of the VA improvement. Retinal thickness of the central foveal subfield improved from a mean value of 366?m(baseline) to 253?m(month 3), well maintained thereafter. Mean number of injections was 8.8 (SD 3.5) per 12 months of follow-up (after 3 loading doses), ranging from 0 to 12, with mean individual treatment-recurrence intervals ranging from 28 to >365 days (mean 58 days). Intraindividual variability of treatment-recurrence intervals, measured as SD of the individual intervals, was 7.1days as a mean value(range 1.7 ? 22.6 days) for the 33 patients with more than 1 injection during follow-up. SD was higher for longer intervals of an individual patient. It ranged within 20% of the mean intra-individual interval for 30 patients(91%) and within 15% for 21 patients(64%). The first interval was within 1 week of the mean intra-individual interval in 64% of patients and within 2 weeks in 89% of patients.CONCLUSIONS:The majority of AMD patients showed a relatively stable rhythm for PRN injections of intravitreal ranibizumab after initial loading phase, associated with excellent functional and anatomical results. The initial interval between last loading dose and first recurrence may have a predictive value for further need of treatment, therefore potentially facilitating follow-up and patient care.

Individual caspase-10 isoforms play distinct and opposing roles in the initiation of death receptor-mediated tumour cell apoptosis.

The cysteine protease caspase-8 is an essential executioner of the death receptor (DR) apoptotic pathway. The physiological function of its homologue caspase-10 remains poorly understood, and the ability of caspase-10 to substitute for caspase-8 in the DR apoptotic pathway is still controversial. Here, we analysed the particular contribution of caspase-10 isoforms to DR-mediated apoptosis in neuroblastoma (NB) cells characterised by their resistance to DR signalling. Silencing of caspase-8 in tumour necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL)-sensitive NB cells resulted in complete resistance to TRAIL, which could be reverted by overexpression of caspase-10A or -10D. Overexpression experiments in various caspase-8-expressing tumour cells also demonstrated that caspase-10A and -10D isoforms strongly increased TRAIL and FasL sensitivity, whereas caspase-10B or -10G had no effect or were weakly anti-apoptotic. Further investigations revealed that the unique C-terminal end of caspase-10B was responsible for its degradation by the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway and for its lack of pro-apoptotic activity compared with caspase-10A and -10D. These data highlight in several tumour cell types, a differential pro- or anti-apoptotic role for the distinct caspase-10 isoforms in DR signalling, which may be relevant for fine tuning of apoptosis initiation.

Schizophrenia and complications of pregnancy and labor: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between complications of pregnancy and delivery and schizophrenia, but none have had sufficient power to examine specific complications that, individually, are of low prevalence. We, therefore, performed an individual patient meta-analysis using the raw data from case control studies that used the Lewis-Murray scale. Data were obtained from 12 studies on 700 schizophrenia subjects and 835 controls. There were significant associations between schizophrenia and premature rupture of membranes, gestational age shorter than 37 weeks, and use of resuscitation or incubator. There were associations of borderline significance between schizophrenia and birthweight lower than 2,500 g and forceps delivery. There was no significant interaction between these complications and sex. We conclude that some abnormalities of pregnancy and delivery may be associated with development of schizophrenia. The pathophysiology may involve hypoxia and so future studies should focus on the accurate measurement of this exposure.

Simultaneous coexpression of memory-related and effector-related genes by individual human CD8 T cells depends on antigen specificity and differentiation.

Phenotypic and functional cell properties are usually analyzed at the level of defined cell populations but not single cells. Yet, large differences between individual cells may have important functional consequences. It is likely that T-cell-mediated immunity depends on the polyfunctionality of individual T cells, rather than the sum of functions of responding T-cell subpopulations. We performed highly sensitive single-cell gene expression profiling, allowing the direct ex vivo characterization of individual virus-specific and tumor-specific T cells from healthy donors and melanoma patients. We have previously shown that vaccination with the natural tumor peptide Melan-A-induced T cells with superior effector functions as compared with vaccination with the analog peptide optimized for enhanced HLA-A*0201 binding. Here we found that natural peptide vaccination induced tumor-reactive CD8 T cells with frequent coexpression of both memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CXCR3, and CCR5) and effector-related genes (IFNG, KLRD1, PRF1, and GZMB), comparable with protective Epstein-Barr virus-specific and cytomegalovirus-specific T cells. In contrast, memory/homing-associated and effector-associated genes were less frequently coexpressed after vaccination with the analog peptide. Remarkably, these findings reveal a previously unknown level of gene expression diversity among vaccine-specific and virus-specific T cells with the simultaneous coexpression of multiple memory/homing-related and effector-related genes by the same cell. Such broad functional gene expression signatures within antigen-specific T cells may be critical for mounting efficient responses to pathogens or tumors. In summary, direct ex vivo high-resolution molecular characterization of individual T cells provides key insights into the processes shaping the functional properties of tumor-specific and virus-specific T cells.

A systems perspective on the integrative child psychiatry approach. Discussion of paper: "Working here and now with the individual and family system: A case of a traumatized child"

In this discussion, after a few general comments, I will propose a systems reading of the intervention so elegantly described by Kaija Puura. I will draw parallels between the therapeutic and the family groups as framing-developing systems and formalize the steps taken by the family toward healing under the influence of the therapist's team. En esta discusión, después de algunos comentarios generales, propongo una lectura sistemática de la intervención tan elegantemente descrita por Kaija Puura. Buscaré paralelos entre los grupos terapéuticos y de familia como sistemas de desarrollo enmarcado y formalizaré los pasos tomados por la familia hacia la cicatrización bajo la influencia del equipo del terapista. Après quelques commentaires généraux, je proposerai dans cette discussion une lecture systémique de l'intervention si élégamment décrite par Kaija Puura. J'établirai des parallèles entre les groupes thérapeutiques et familiaux en tant que systèmes d'encadrement-développement et je formaliserai les étapes de guérison franchies par la famille grâce à l'influence de l'équipe thérapeutique. In dieser Diskussion, werde ich nach einigen allgemeineren Aussagen, eine systemische Lesart der von Kaija Puura so eingängig beschriebenen Intervention vorschlagen. Ich werde darin Parallelen zwischen der therapeutischen und Rahmengebenden Familiengruppen ziehen, und die Schritte der Familien hin zu einer Heilung unter dem Einfluss des Therapeutenteams formalisieren.

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.