The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Predictive value of serologic tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis

A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Effects of Environmental Organochlorine Pesticides on Human Breast Cancer: Putative Involvement on Invasive Cell Ability

Human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is a certainty, even to long banned pesticides like o,p′-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (o,p′-DDT), and its metabolites p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p′-DDE), and p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p′-DDD). POPs are known to be particularly toxic and have been associated with endocrine-disrupting effects in several mammals, including humans even at very low doses. As environmental estrogens, they could play a critical role in carcinogenesis, such as in breast cancer. With the purpose of evaluating their effect on breast cancer biology, o,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDE, and p,p′-DDD (50–1000 nM) were tested on two human breast adenocarcinoma cell lines: MCF-7 expressing estrogen receptor (ER) α and MDA-MB-231 negative for ERα, regarding cell proliferation and viability in addition to their invasive potential. Cell proliferation and viability were not equally affected by these compounds. In MCF-7 cells, the compounds were able to decrease cell proliferation and viability. On the other hand, no evident response was observed in treated MDA-MB-231 cells. Concerning the invasive potential, the less invasive cell line, MCF-7, had its invasion potential significantly induced, while the more invasive cell line MDA-MB-231, had its invasion potential dramatically reduced in the presence of the tested compounds. Altogether, the results showed that these compounds were able to modulate several cancer-related processes, namely in breast cancer cell lines, and underline the relevance of POP exposure to the risk of cancer development and progression, unraveling distinct pathways of action of these compounds on tumor cell biology.

Earthen plasters: the potential of the clayey soils of barrocal region in Algarve

Due to their high adsorption capacity of water vapor, earthen plasters can act as a moisture buffer, contributing to balance the relative humidity of the indoor environment of buildings. As a consequence of this capacity earthen plasters may also contribute to the perception of thermal comfort, since a high relative humidity increases the thermal conductivity of air and restricts skin evaporation, increasing the discomfort associated with the perception of heat or cold. Simultaneously, earthen plasters may also contribute to the indoor air quality. In one hand, by mitigating health problems of the respiratory system associated with indoor environment with high relative humidity, in which increases the risk of development of microorganisms usually responsible for infections, allergies or asthma. In the other hand, by mitigating the probability of inflammation of the respiratory system airways associated to exceedingly dry indoor environments. Therefore it also becomes expectable that earthen plasters may contribute for reducing the needs for air conditioning and mechanical ventilation in buildings and, thereby, also allowing the reduction of the associated energy consumption. The «Barrocal» region, located in the sedimentary basin of Algarve, South Portugal, presents geomorphological characteristics that promote the occurrence of soils with a clay mineralogy dominated by illite, which is a clay mineral characterized by a high adsorption capacity of water vapor and low expansibility. This fact turns expectable that these soils have a high potential for interior plastering. In order to evaluate this potential four mortars were formulated with an increasing content of clayey soil extracted from a selected clay quarry from «Barrocal» region. The results from the preliminary characterization campaign confirmed the reduced linear shrinkage of these mortars, as well as their high adsorption-desorption capacity, that is positively correlated with the content of clayey soil present in mortar formulation. However, the mechanical tests showed that the mechanical resistance of these mortars should be improved, for instance through the addition of natural fibers for reinforcement, which will be investigated in future research. This research contributed to increase certainty regarding the potential of clayey soils of the «Barrocal» sub-region of Algarve to produce mortars suitable for eco-efficient interior plastering.

Insurance segmentation as unfair discrimination: what to expect next in the wake of Test-Achats

Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference organized by the Insurance Law Association of Serbia and German Foundation for International Legal Co-Operation (IRZ), entitled "Insurance law, governance and transparency: basics of the legal certainty" Palic Serbia, 17-19 April 2015.

The Environmental History of Cetaceans in Portugal: Ten Centuries of Whale and Dolphin Records

The history between cetaceans and humans is documented throughout time not only in reports, descriptions, and tales but also in legal documents, laws and regulations, and tithes. This wealth of information comes from the easy spotting and identification of individuals due to their large size, surface breathing, and conspicuous above water behaviour. This work is based on historical sources and accounts accounting for cetacean presence for the period between the 12th and 17th centuries, as well as scientific articles, newspapers, illustrations, maps, non-published scientific reports, and other grey literature from the 18th century onwards. Information on whale use in Portugal's mainland has been found since as early as the 12th century and has continued to be created throughout time. No certainty can be given for medieval and earlier events, but both scavenging of stranded whales or use of captured ones may have happened. There is an increasing number of accounts of sighted, stranded, used, or captured cetaceans throughout centuries which is clearly associated with a growing effort towards the study of these animals. Scientific Latin species denominations only started to be registered from the 18th century onwards, as a consequence of the evolution of natural sciences in Portugal and increasing interest from zoologists. After the 19th century, a larger number of observations were recorded, and from the 20th century to the present day, regular scientific records have been collected. Research on the environmental history of cetaceans in Portugal shows a several-centuries-old exploitation of whales and dolphins, as resources mainly for human consumption, followed in later centuries by descriptions of natural history documenting strandings and at sea encounters. Most cetaceans species currently thought to be present in Portuguese mainland waters were at some point historically recorded.

The integration of online advertising into social media

This study examined user-generated (UG) advertising in the context of social media networks. The focus was on how people, whether an expert in the area, a non-expert or a friend, influence the reader of the advertisement. Furthermore, the study analyzed how the certainty level of the UG advertisement influences the person viewing the ad. The study showed that for the friend source a high certainty message was more persuasive. However, regarding the certainty no significant results were found for the expert and non-expert. Further, the type of the source had a considerable impact on persuasion. Someone that we personally know (e.g., a friend) was rated most positive for all analyzes variables. This shows that with the rising usage of social media there are great opportunities for new effective advertising strategies that could include a new type of an endorser – friends.

The Core ideas and axioms of classical fascism (1919-1945)

This article presents and explores the axioms and core ideas, or idées-force, of the Fascist ideologies of the first third of the twentieth century. The aim is to identify the features that define the term “Classical Fascism” as a conceptual category in the study of politics and to uncover the core ideas of its political theory. This analysis requires an appraisal of both the idées-force themselves and the political use that is made of them. If these appreciations are correct, Classical Fascism is characterized by a set of ideological and political aims and methods in which ideas, attitudes and behaviours are determined by an anti-democratic palingenetic ultranationalism underpinned by a sacralized ideology; the quest for a united, indissoluble society as apolitical system and, at the same time, the collective myth that mobilizes and redeems the nation; and third, violence as a political vehicle applied unchecked against internal opposition and against external enemies who challenge the nation´s progression towards the dream of rebirth and the culmination of this progression in the form of an empire.

Do political incentives matter for tax policies? Ideology, opportunism and the tax structure

This paper investigates the importance of political ideology and opportunism in the choice of the tax structure. In particular, we examine the effects of cabinet ideology and elections on the distribution of the tax burden across factors of production and consumption for 21 OECD countries over the period 1970-2000 by employing four alternative cabinet ideology measures and by using the methodology of effective tax rates. There is evidence of both opportunistic and partisan effects on tax policies. More precisely, we find that left-wing governments rely more on capital relative to labor income taxation and that they tend to increase consumption taxes. Moreover, we find that income tax rates (but not consumption taxes) tend to be reduced in preelectoral periods and that capital effective tax rates (defined broadly to include taxes on selfemployed income) are reduced by more than effective labor tax rates.

Diagnosis of malaria by acridine orange fluorescent microscopy in an endemic area of Venezuela

Fluorescent (acridine orange) microscopical examination of capillary centrifuged blood (quantitative buffy coat [QBC®] analysis) and Giemsa stained thick blood smears (GTS) were compared for diagnosis of malaria in blood specimens from adults living in malaria transmission areas of the States of Bolivar and Amazonas in southeastern and south Venezuela, respectively. Of a total of 198 GTS examined, 95 subjects (48%) showed parasitaemia. Among the 95 blood films with a positive GTS, 94 were judged positive by the QBC. However, positive QBC tubes were found in 29 out of 103 blood specimens with a negative GTS. Thus, relative to a GTS standard, the sensitivity and specificity of the QBC-test was 99.2% and 72%, respectively. Young trophozoites of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum could not be distinguished with certainty. It is confirmed that the QBC offers many advantages compared with the standard diagnosis of malaria parasites, specifically in the speed of staining and ease of interpretation. However, in places where P. falciparum and P. vivax occur, species and stage differentiation should be confirmed with the GTS.

A sure house studies on the dynastic promise to David in the books of Samuel

The dissertation studies the texts mentioning or alluding to the dynastic promise to David in the books of Samuel; in the concluding further perspectives it also overviews the occurrences of the promise in the books of Kings; in the appendix, it comments on the "Law of the King" in Deut 17,14-20, the last verse of which may contain an allusion to the Davidic promise. The study engages with recent discussion on the history of the text of 2 Sam 7. In a detailed textual commentary, it treats with all the differences between the main textual witnesses of the chapter, and apart from the evaluation of the individual variants, it attempts to answer the question whether the differences are due exclusively to the process of transmission, or they are of literary character. Special attention is paid to the value of 1 Chr 17 for the reconstruction of the oldest text of 2 Sam 7; the author hopes that the conclusions of this part of the dissertation may prove to be of some importance for a more general study of the reception of Samuel in Chronicles. The subsequent literary analysis of 2 Sam 7 and the other passages referring to the dynastic promise to David leads to two alternative datings of Nathan's oracle and consequently two alternative redactional hypotheses trying to give account of the emergence of the examined passages. In the concluding perspectives, the function of the promise in Samuel is compared with the occurrences of the motif in Kings; this comparison leads to tentative conclusions concerning the development of the relation of the two books.

Änderung des Therapieziels am Lebensende: Effekte einer Klinik-Leitlinie [Changing the treatment goal at the end of life: effects of a guideline at a hospital].

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Deciding about treatment goals at the end of life is a frequent and difficult challenge to medical staff. As more health care institutions issue ethico-legal guidelines to their staff the effects of such a guideline should be investigated in a pilot project.¦PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Prospective evaluation study using the pre-post method. Physicians and nurses working in ten intensive care units of a university medical center in Germany answered a specially designed questionnaire before and one year after issuance of the guideline.¦RESULTS: 197 analyzable answers were obtained from the first (pre-guideline) and 251 from the second (post-guideline) survey (54 % and 58 % response rate, respectively). Initially the clinicians expressed their need for guidelines, advice on ethical problems, and continuing education. One year after introduction of the guideline one third of the clinicians was familiar with the guideline's content and another third was aware of its existence. 90% of those who knew the document welcomed it. Explanation of the legal aspects was seen as its most useful element. The pre- and post-guideline comparison demonstrated that uncertainty in decision making and fear of legal consequences were reduced, while knowledge of legal aspects and the value given to advance directives increased. The residents had derived the greatest benefit.¦CONCLUSION: By promoting the knowledge of legal aspects and ethical considerations, guidelines given to medical staff can lead to more certainty when making in end of life decision.

Duplex-PCR assay for the detection of adenovirus and respiratory syncytial virus in nasopharyngeal samples

Human adenovirus (HAdV) and human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) are important etiologic agents of acute respiratory infections. In this study, a duplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was developed for the simultaneous detection of HAdV and HRSV in clinical samples. Sixty previously screened nasopharyngeal aspirates were used: 20 HAdV-positive, 20 HRSV-positive and 20 double-negative controls. Eight samples were positive for both viruses. The duplex PCR assay proved to be as sensitive and specific as single-target assays and also detected the mixed infections with certainty. The identification of both viruses in a single reaction offers a reduction in both cost and laboratory diagnostic time.

The Strategic Adaptation of Party Organizations to New Information and Communication Technologies : A Study of Catalan and Spanish Parties

Aquest document se centra en els casos dels dos principals partits espanyols (PP i PSOE) i catalans (PSC i CDC) en el període immediatament després de les eleccions generals espanyoles de maig de 2008, quan aquests celebraren els seus congressos. En general, es poden distingir tres tipus d'actors: en primer lloc, els ciberactivistes que tracten d'obtenir el reconeixement formal de la seva activitat en els seus partits. Així com, els líders del partit que poden intentar promoure la presència del partit en el ciberespai, però que també poden romandre indecisos perquè no és clar l'impacte electoral a la xarxa del ciberactivisme. Finalment, alguns militants tradicionals (off-line) solen ser reticents al reconeixement del ciberactivisme perquè amenaça les recompenses previstes dins del partit. Aquest article mostra com els nostres partits varen respondre al desafiament del ciberactivisme i arriba a la conclusió que la seva situació electoral, mediada per la seva ideologia, estructura organitzativa i el tipus de militància, poden ajudar-nos a comprendre el grau diferent d'institucionalització en l'organització del partit.