Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Reconceptualising International Intervention: Statebuilding, ‘Organic Processes’ and the Limits of Causal Knowledge

This article examines the transformation in the conceptual understanding of international intervention over the last two decades. It suggests that this conceptual shift can be usefully interrogated through its imbrication within broader epistemological shifts highlighting the limits of causal knowledge claims: heuristically framed in this article in terms of the shift from policy interventions within the problematic of causation to those concerned with the management of effects. In this shift, the means and mechanisms of international intervention have been transformed, no longer focused on the universal application of Western causal knowledge through policy interventions but rather on the effects of specific and unique local and organic processes at work in societies themselves. The focus on effects takes the conceptualisation of intervention out of the traditional terminological lexicon of International Relations theory and instead recasts problems in increasingly organicised ways, suggesting that artificial or hubristic attempts at socio-political intervention should be excluded or minimised.

Health reforms in Latin America: processes and results

Two types of health reforms in Latin America are analysed: one based on insurance and service commodification and the one referred to the unified public systems of progressive governments. Health insurance with explicit service packages has not fulfilled their purposes of universal coverage, equal access to necessary health services and improvement of health conditions but has opened health as a field of profit making for insurance companies and private health providers. The national health services as a state obligation have developed territorialized health services and widened substantially timely access to the majority of the population. The adoption of an integrated and wide social policy has an impact on population well fare. It faces some problems derived from the old health systems and the power of the insurance and medical complex.

Modeling, Analysis and Performance Comparison of Two Direct Sampling DCSK Receivers under Frequency Nonselective Fading Channels

Two direct sampling correlator-type receivers for differential chaos shift keying (DCSK) communication systems under frequency non-selective fading channels are proposed. These receivers operate based on the same hardware platform with different architectures. In the first scheme, namely sum-delay-sum (SDS) receiver, the sum of all samples in a chip period is correlated with its delayed version. The correlation value obtained in each bit period is then compared with a fixed threshold to decide the binary value of recovered bit at the output. On the other hand, the second scheme, namely delay-sum-sum (DSS) receiver, calculates the correlation value of all samples with its delayed version in a chip period. The sum of correlation values in each bit period is then compared with the threshold to recover the data. The conventional DCSK transmitter, frequency non-selective Rayleigh fading channel, and two proposed receivers are mathematically modelled in discrete-time domain. The authors evaluated the bit error rate performance of the receivers by means of both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The performance comparison shows that the two proposed receivers can perform well under the studied channel, where the performances get better when the number of paths increases and the DSS receiver outperforms the SDS one.

Passivity Framework for Modeling, Composing and Mitigating Cyber Attacks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Rheology and Microfluidic flows of a cationic surfactant and hydrotropic salt mixture

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Shapes and Dynamics of Blood Cells in Poiseuille and Shear Flows

The dynamics, shape, deformation, and orientation of red blood cells in microcirculation affect the rheology, flow resistance and transport properties of whole blood. This leads to important correlations of cellular and continuum scales. Furthermore, the dynamics of RBCs subject to different flow conditions and vessel geometries is relevant for both fundamental research and biomedical applications (e.g drug delivery). In this thesis, the behaviour of RBCs is investigated for different flow conditions via computer simulations. We use a combination of two mesoscopic particle-based simulation techniques, dissipative particle dynamics and smoothed dissipative particle dynamics. We focus on the microcapillary scale of several μm. At this scale, blood cannot be considered at the continuum but has to be studied at the cellular level. The connection between cellular motion and overall blood rheology will be investigated. Red blood cells are modelled as viscoelastic objects interacting hydrodynamically with a viscous fluid environment. The properties of the membrane, such as resistance against bending or shearing, are set to correspond to experimental values. Furthermore, thermal fluctuations are considered via random forces. Analyses corresponding to light scattering measurements are performed in order to compare to experiments and suggest for which situations this method is suitable. Static light scattering by red blood cells characterises their shape and allows comparison to objects such as spheres or cylinders, whose scattering signals have analytical solutions, in contrast to those of red blood cells. Dynamic light scattering by red blood cells is studied concerning its suitability to detect and analyse motion, deformation and membrane fluctuations. Dynamic light scattering analysis is performed for both diffusing and flowing cells. We find that scattering signals depend on various cell properties, thus allowing to distinguish different cells. The scattering of diffusing cells allows to draw conclusions on their bending rigidity via the effective diffusion coefficient. The scattering of flowing cells allows to draw conclusions on the shear rate via the scattering amplitude correlation. In flow, a RBC shows different shapes and dynamic states, depending on conditions such as confinement, physiological/pathological state and cell age. Here, two essential flow conditions are studied: simple shear flow and tube flow. Simple shear flow as a basic flow condition is part of any more complex flow. The velocity profile is linear and shear stress is homogeneous. In simple shear flow, we find a sequence of different cell shapes by increasing the shear rate. With increasing shear rate, we find rolling cells with cup shapes, trilobe shapes and quadrulobe shapes. This agrees with recent experiments. Furthermore, the impact of the initial orientation on the dynamics is studied. To study crowding and collective effects, systems with higher haematocrit are set up. Tube flow is an idealised model for the flow through cylindric microvessels. Without cell, a parabolic flow profile prevails. A single red blood cell is placed into the tube and subject to a Poiseuille profile. In tube flow, we find different cell shapes and dynamics depending on confinement, shear rate and cell properties. For strong confinements and high shear rates, we find parachute-like shapes. Although not perfectly symmetric, they are adjusted to the flow profile and maintain a stationary shape and orientation. For weak confinements and low shear rates, we find tumbling slippers that rotate and moderately change their shape. For weak confinements and high shear rates, we find tank-treading slippers that oscillate in a limited range of inclination angles and strongly change their shape. For the lowest shear rates, we find cells performing a snaking motion. Due to cell properties and resultant deformations, all shapes differ from hitherto descriptions, such as steady tank-treading or symmetric parachutes. We introduce phase diagrams to identify flow regimes for the different shapes and dynamics. Changing cell properties, the regime borders in the phase diagrams change. In both flow types, both the viscosity contrast and the choice of stress-free shape are important. For in vitro experiments, the solvent viscosity has often been higher than the cytosol viscosity, leading to a different pattern of dynamics, such as steady tank-treading. The stress-free state of a RBC, which is the state at zero shear stress, is still controversial, and computer simulations enable direct comparisons of possible candidates in equivalent flow conditions.

Investigating the Diabetic Brain: The Effects of Pioglitazone and Insulin on the Cellular Processes and Pathology of Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the sixth leading cause of death in the US. Some researchers refer to AD as “Type III Diabetes” because of reported glucose metabolism dysfunction. Preclinical studies suggest increasing insulin decreases AD pathology, although the mechanism remains unclear. To sensitize insulin signaling, this study activated Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor Gamma using intranasal co-administration of pioglitazone (PGZ) and insulin. This method targeted the site of action to reduce peripheral effects and to maximize impact in transgenic mice expressing AD pathology. Data from GC-MS fluxomics analysis suggested that PGZ+Insulin increased glucose metabolism in the brain. Immunohistochemistry with relevant antibodies was used to identify AD pathological markers in the subiculum, indicating that PGZ+Insulin decreased pathology compared to Insulin and Saline. This suggests that increasing glucose uptake in the brain alleviated AD pathology, further clarifying the role of insulin signaling in AD pathology.Gemstone

Strategic Management of Resources for International Business Operations in Small Consulting Firms - People, Processes and Tools in Managing International operations

Research on strategic management of resources for small consulting firms which are international or planning to operate internationally is scarce or not existing at all. It is however important to start generating the theories that will support managers in their decision making and planning. This thesis investigates how do small management consulting firms manage their internal and external resources while operating in international markets. Throughout the study, aspects related to internal and external resources management as well as management strategies in these firms have been examined in relations to firm’s internationalisation activities. A qualitative analysis was carried out whereby four small consulting firms in Export Management Consulting, Integration Services Consulting-, Software Development Consulting- and Business Solutions Consulting companies were interviewed. In order to generate the holistic understanding of the study, the thesis writer selected Value Enhanced Collaborative Working (VECW) model as an analysis framework. The model focuses on people, processes and tools as key elements that small consulting firms consider when thinking about managing their international operations. The findings of the thesis reveal that, internal and external resources in the interviewed consulting firms are viewed similarly, but managed differently depending on the nature and size of the firm. Firm’s management strategies concentrate on the adequate utilisation of the employees' motivation and experiences, effective stakeholders' management, various administrative evaluation processes and tools, the ability to realise useful networks, constant improvement through employee trainings, employees and customers’ feedbacks as well as enhanced freedom in order to support employees’ creativity. Further research to examine functional administrative tools and tools that small consulting firms could use to assess their resource capabilities when planning to become international would benefit the smaller businesses in terms of resources management and certainty in planning.

Object-Oriented Modeling Simulation and Control of Activated Sludge Process

Object-oriented modeling is spreading in current simulation of wastewater treatments plants through the use of the individual components of the process and its relations to define the underlying dynamic equations. In this paper, we describe the use of the free-software OpenModelica simulation environment for the object-oriented modeling of an activated sludge process under feedback control. The performance of the controlled system was analyzed both under normal conditions and in the presence of disturbances. The object-oriented described approach represents a valuable tool in teaching provides a practical insight in wastewater process control field.

Cold vapour generation electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry and solid phase extraction based on a new nanosorbent for sensitive HG determination in environmental samples (sea water and river water)

Mercury is not an essential element for plant or animal life and it is a potential environmental toxic because of its tendency to form covalent bonds with organic molecules and the high stability of the Hg-C bond. Reports estimate a total mercury concentration in natural waters ranging from 0.2 to 100 ng L-1. Due to this fact, highly sensitive methods are required for direct determination of such extremely low levels. In this work, a rapid and simple method was developed for separation and preconcentration of mercury by flow injection solid phase extraction coupled with on-line chemical vapour generation electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry. The system is based on chelating retention of the analyte onto the mini column filled with a mesoporous silica functionalized with 1,5 bis (di-2-pyridyl) methylene thiocarbohydrazide. The main aim of this work was to develop a precise and accurate method for the determination of the Hg. Under the optima conditions and 120 s preconcentration time, the detection limit obtained was 0.009 μg L-1, with RSDs 3.7 % for 0.2 μg L-1, 4.8 % for 1 μg L-1 and enrichment factor 4, Furthermore, the method proposed has permitted the determination of Hg with a reduction in the analysis time, the sample throughput was about 18 h-1, low consumption of reagents and sample volume. The method was applied to the determination of Hg in sea water and river water. For the quality control of the analytical performance and the validation of the newly developed method, the analysis of two certified samples, TMDA 54.4 Fortified Lake, and LGC6187 River sediment was addressed. The results showed good agreement with the certified values.

Phylogeography of the Atlanto-Mediterranean sea cucumber Holothuria (Holothuria) mammata: the combined effects of historical processes and current oceanographical pattern

We assessed the genetic structure of populations of the widely distributed sea cucumber Holothuria (Holothuria) mammata Grube, 1840, and investigated the effects of marine barriers to gene flow and historical processes. Several potential genetic breaks were considered, which would separate the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, the isolated Macaronesian Islands from the other locations analysed, and the Western Mediterranean and Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean). We analysed mitochondrial 16S and COI gene sequences from 177 individuals from four Atlantic locations and four Mediterranean locations. Haplotype diversity was high (H = 0.9307 for 16S and 0.9203 for COI), and the haplotypes were closely related (p = 0.0058 for 16S and 0.0071 for COI). The lowest genetic diversities were found in the Aegean Sea population. Our results showed that the COI gene was more variable and more useful for the detection of population structure than the 16S gene. The distribution of mtDNA haplotypes, the pairwise FST values and the results of exact tests and AMOVA revealed: (i) a significant genetic break between the population in the Aegean Sea and those in the other locations, as supported by both mitochondrial genes, and (ii) weak differentiation of the Canary and Azores Islands from the other populations; however, the populations from the Macaronesian Islands, Algarve and West Mediterranean could be considered to be a panmictic metapopulation. Isolation by distance was not identified in H. (H.) mammata. Historical events behind the observed findings, together with the current oceanographic patterns, were proposed and discussed as the main factors that determine the population structure and genetic signature of H. (H.) mammata

The Impact of Social Comparison Processes on Hoped-For Possible Selves, Self-Regulatory Processes, and Mental Health Outcomes in Young Adults

In exploring the role of social influences in the development of the self, the current study evaluated whether young adults use social comparisons in developing their hoped-for possible selves and, if so, whether their developmental process correlates with self-regulatory processes and positive mental health outcomes. The current study found the following: (1) the domains of hoped-for possible selves among young adults were related to the gender of the social comparison target, (2) the direction of young adults’ social comparison processes (upward or downward) did not significantly influence self-regulatory processes (self-efficacy and outcome expectancy) toward achieving their hoped-for possible selves, (3) strong masculine gender identification related to greater outcome expectancy, while strong feminine gender identification related to both greater self-efficacy and outcome expectancy, and (4) self-efficacy related to less state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression, while outcome expectancy related only to less trait anxiety. Males and females were found to use traditional gender role identification in forming their hoped-for possible selves.