A generalized modified Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

A four parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone as well as non-monotone failure rates, which are quite common in lifetime problems and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the Weibull, extreme value, exponentiated Weibull, generalized Rayleigh and modified Weibull distributions, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. The density of the order statistics is obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. Also, the observed information matrix is obtained. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Negative stress and the outcome of treatment for binge eating

This study investigated the ability of negatively versus positively perceived stress to predict outcome of treatment for binge eating disorder (BED). Participants were 62 obese women satisfying the DSMIV research criteria for BED. Stress was measured using an instrument based on the Recent Life Change Questionnaire (RLCQ). Participants experiencing high negative stress during the study period reported a binge eating frequency three times greater than that reported by subjects experiencing low negative stress (2.14 vs. 0.65 binge-days/week). Negative stress predicted how fast an individual would reduce binge eating and demonstrated more predictive power than positive stress.

Claude Jones addressing a Communist Party of Australia meeting in Brisbane, Australia

Claude Jones addressing a Communist Party of Australia meeting in Brisbane, Australia. Ted Bacon can be seen at the table.

Centrilobular Fibrosis: An Underrecognized Pattern in Systemic Sclerosis

Background: The impressive association of lung involvement and gastroesophageal reflux in scleroderma raises the possibility of a cause-effect relationship. Objectives: To determine clinical, radiological and histopathological features of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients according the presence or absence of centrilobular fibrosis (CLF). Methods: Twenty-eight SSc patients with lung involvement were submitted to open lung biopsy and the specimens classified for the presence of CLF (bronchocentric distribution of the lesions and intraluminal matter according to the classification of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia). HRCT, pulmonary function tests and esophageal analysis were also performed. Subsequently, cyclophosphamide was introduced for the nonspecific interstitial pneumonia subgroup and antireflux treatment was intensified for isolated CLF patients. Results: Isolated CLF was found in 21% of the biopsies and also found associated to nonspecific interstitial pneumonia in 84% of these patients. The other 3 cases had usual interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary hypertension and respiratory bronchiolitis-associated interstitial lung disease. The histopathological analysis revealed that all 6 patients with isolated CLF had the bronchocentric distribution and intraluminal basophilic content, with foreign bodies detected in one third of them. The central distribution of lung involvement on HRCT was found in 67% of these patients with a consistent patchy distribution (100%). Ground glass (67%) and consolidation (33%) were the predominant patterns found. The constant clinical finding in all isolated CLF cases was dyspnea, esophageal abnormalities and a moderate lung impairment (FVC: 63.83 +/- 16.31%; DLCO: 61.66 +/- 18.84%). Lung function parameters in isolated CLF patients remained stable after 1 year of exclusively intensive antireflux treatment (FVC, p = 0.23; DLCO, p = 0.59). Conclusions: The novel description of CLF pattern in SSc lung disease with peculiar histological, tomographic and clinical features will certainly contribute to a more appropriate therapeutic approach. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

A long-term prospective randomized controlled study of non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) treatment in scleroderma

The association of cyclophosphamide (CYC) and prednisone (PRED) for the treatment of lung fibrosis in systemic sclerosis (SSc) was only evaluated in uncontrolled studies, although in idiopathic interstitial lung disease (ILD) this association seems to be beneficial in patients with non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Objectives: To treat SSc-ILD in a prospective open-label controlled study based on lung pattern during 12 months of treatment. Methods: A 3-year analysis was also performed. Twenty-four consecutive patients with SSc and ILD were submitted to an open lung biopsy. Eighteen patients (NSIP) were randomized in two groups: CYC versus CYC + PRED during 12 months. Lung function tests (diffusion lung capacity of monoxide carbone corrected for hemoglobin concentration (DLCO-Hb), forced vital capacity (FVC), total lung capacity) and Modified Rodnan Skin Score (MRSS) were performed before, after one of treatment and after 3 years from the end of the treatment. Results: Pulmonary function tests were similar in both groups on baseline. After 1 year of treatment, FVC% was comparable between CYC groups (p = 0.72) and in CYC + PRED (p = 0.40). Three years after the end of treatment, FVC% values (p = 0.39 in group CYC and p = 0.61 in CYC + PRED and p = 0.22 in CYC + PRED) and DLCO-Hb (p = 0.54 in CYC and p = 0.28 in CYC + PRED) were similar compared to 1 year of treatment. We observed a reduction of the MRSS in the CYC + PRED group after 1 year of treatment (p = 0.02); although after 3 years, MRSS values remained stable in both groups. Conclusions: CYC was effective to stabilize lung function parameters in NSIP lung pattern of SSc disease for 3 years after the end of a 1-year therapy.

Abnormal expression of telomerase/apoptosis limits type II alveolar epithelial cell replication in the early remodeling of usual interstitial pneumonia/idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a distinctive, usually fatal, type of chronic fibrosing interstitial pneumonia of unknown cause that increases in prevalence with advanced age, characterized by failure of alveolar re-epithelization and progressive scar formation. Recently, limitation of the replicative capacity of tissues determined by telomerase/apoptosis balance has been implicated in pathogenesis of age-related diseases. In this study, we validated the importance of the expression of type 2 alveolar epithelial cells telomerase protein and studied the relationships between telomerase and apoptosis in early remodeling of usual interstitial pneumonia. We determined type 2 alveolar epithelial cells density, telomerase expression, and apoptosis in surgical lung biopsies from 24 patients with usual interstitial pneumonia, and in normal lung tissues from 18 subjects. We used immunohistochemistry, deoxynucleotidyl transferase method of end labeling, electron microscopy, and histomorphometry to evaluate the amount of type 2 alveolar epithelial cells staining for surfactant-A, telomerase, and in situ detection of apoptotic cells. Unaffected areas of usual interstitial pneumonia and normal lung tissue had similar densities of type 2 alveolar epithelial cells, but a significant minor subpopulation of type 2 alveolar epithelial cells was telomerase positive and a large population was telomerase negative. A significant inverse association was found between low type 2, alveolar. epithelial cell telomerase expression and high apoptosis in unaffected areas of usual interstitial pneumonia. Although type 2 alveolar epithelial cell telomerase expression was higher than apoptosis in NLT group, no significant association was found between them. Electron microscopy confirmed epithelial apoptosis, alveolar collapse, and initial fibroplasia. We conclude that abnormal type 2 alveolar epithelial cells telomerase/apoptosis balance may reduce alveolar epithelial regenerative capacity, thus contributing to the early remodeling response in usual interstitial pneumonia. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Histologic Study of Perifascial Areolar Tissue Implanted in Rabbit Vocal Folds: An Experimental Study

Objectives: Perifascial areolar tissue (PAT) consists of loose areolar tissue with viscoelastic properties that are similar to those found in tissues in the superficial layer of the vocal fold. The aim of this study was to quantify the inflammatory process and the collagen content of the graft, as well as that of the host tissue, after placement of a strip of PAT into the rabbit vocal fold. Methods: Surgeries were performed on 30 rabbits. The grafts were implanted in pockets that were surgically created in the right vocal fold. The left vocal fold (control group) was subjected only to surgical manipulation. The animals were divided into 3 groups for evaluations at 15 days, 3 months, and 6 months, and their larynx tissues were subsequently reviewed by histology. Results: The grafts were characterized by disorganized and thick collagen bundles and were identified in all study groups. The collagen density stayed constant over time. There was an acute inflammatory response induced by the graft at 15 clays that did not exist in the specimens taken at 3 and 6 months. Deposition of collagen fibers in the lamina propria was observed starting at 15 days after the operation and was more intense in the experimental vocal fold than in the control vocal fold. Conclusions: Our findings indicated that PAT has a low tendency for promoting an inflammatory response. However, there was a loss of the original architecture of the graft tissue and a greater deposition of collagen in the implanted vocal folds than in the control group.