Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Primary production and nutrient fluxes of the nothern coast of Peru: a summary

Analise the distribution and magnitude of primary measured during the 1977 ICANE cruise of the northern coast of Peru

Photoinhibition of photosynthesis in natural assemblages of marine phytoplankton

estudia la fotosÍntesis en el fitoplancton, como función unica y continua de luz disponible, desde la respuesta linear inicial hasta la inhibición extrema

The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future : an international workshop report and consensus statement

Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.

Nitric oxide reduces Cl- absorption in the mouse cortical collecting duct through an ENaC-dependent mechanism.

Since nitric oxide (NO) participates in the renal regulation of blood pressure, in part, by modulating transport of Na(+) and Cl(-) in the kidney, we asked whether NO regulates net Cl(-) flux (JCl) in the cortical collecting duct (CCD) and determined the transporter(s) that mediate NO-sensitive Cl(-) absorption. Cl(-) absorption was measured in CCDs perfused in vitro that were taken from aldosterone-treated mice. Administration of an NO donor (10 μM MAHMA NONOate) reduced JCl and transepithelial voltage (VT) both in the presence or absence of angiotensin II. However, reducing endogenous NO production by inhibiting NO synthase (100 μM N(G)-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester) increased JCl only in the presence of angiotensin II, suggesting that angiotensin II stimulates NO synthase activity. To determine the transport process that mediates NO-sensitive changes in JCl, we examined the effect of NO on JCl following either genetic ablation or chemical inhibition of transporters in the CCD. Since the application of hydrochlorothiazide (100 μM) or bafilomycin (5 nM) to the perfusate or ablation of the gene encoding pendrin did not alter NO-sensitive JCl, NO modulates JCl independent of the Na(+)-dependent Cl(-)/HCO3(-) exchanger (NDCBE, Slc4a8), the A cell apical plasma membrane H(+)-ATPase and pendrin. In contrast, both total and NO-sensitive JCl and VT were abolished with application of an epithelial Na(+) channel (ENaC) inhibitor (3 μM benzamil) to the perfusate. We conclude that NO reduces Cl(-) absorption in the CCD through a mechanism that is ENaC-dependent.

Graded algebra automorphisms

We consider the Clifford algebra C(q) of a regular quadratic space (V, q) over a field K with its structure of Z/2Z-graded K-algebra. We give a characterization of the group of graded automorphisms of C(q). In the last section we introduce the Z/nZ-graded algebras and we study as well as the group of graded automorphisms for some of them.

Lung cancer in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: role of smoking, immunodeficiency and pulmonary infection.

BACKGROUND: Immunodeficiency and AIDS-related pulmonary infections have been suggested as independent causes of lung cancer among HIV-infected persons, in addition to smoking. METHODS: A total of 68 lung cancers were identified in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) or through linkage with Swiss Cancer Registries (1985-2010), and were individually matched to 337 controls by centre, gender, HIV-transmission category, age and calendar period. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 96.2% of lung cancers and 72.9% of controls were ever smokers, confirming the high prevalence of smoking and its strong association with lung cancer (OR for current vs never=14.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.36-62.1). No significant associations were observed between CD4+ cell count and lung cancer, neither when measured within 1 year (OR for <200 vs ≥500=1.21, 95% CI: 0.49-2.96) nor further back in time, before lung cancer diagnosis. Combined antiretroviral therapy was not significantly associated with lung cancer (OR for ever vs never=0.67, 95% CI: 0.29-1.52), and nor was a history of AIDS with (OR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.19-1.28) or without (OR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.24-1.18) pulmonary involvement. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer in the SHCS does not seem to be clearly associated with immunodeficiency or AIDS-related pulmonary disease, but seems to be attributable to heavy smoking.

Large N phases, gravitational instantons and the nuts and bolts of AdS holography

Recent results in the literature concerning holography indicate that the thermodynamics of quantum gravity (at least with a negative cosmological constant) can be modeled by the large N thermodynamics of quantum field theory. We emphasize that this suggests a completely unitary evolution of processes in quantum gravity, including black hole formation and decay, and even more extreme examples involving topology change. As concrete examples which show that this correspondence holds even when the space-time is only locally asymptotically AdS, we compute the thermodynamical phase structure of the AdS-Taub-NUT and AdS-Taub-bolt spacetimes, and compare them to a (2+1)-dimensional conformal field theory (at large N) compactified on a squashed three-sphere and on the twisted plane.

Charged AdS black holes and catastrophic holography

We compute the properties of a class of charged black holes in antide Sitter space-time, in diverse dimensions. These black holes are solutions of consistent Einstein-Maxwell truncations of gauged supergravities, which are shown to arise from the inclusion of rotation in the transverse space. We uncover rich thermodynamic phase structures for these systems, which display classic critical phenomena, including structures isomorphic to the van der WaalsMaxwell liquid-gas system. In that case, the phases are controlled by the universal cusp and swallowtail shapes familiar from catastrophe theory. All of the thermodynamics is consistent with field theory interpretations via holography, where the dual field theories can sometimes be found on the world volumes of coincident rotating branes.