Improved Kalman filter initialisation using neurofuzzy estimation

It is traditional to initialise Kalman filters and extended Kalman filters with estimates of the states calculated directly from the observed (raw) noisy inputs, but unfortunately their performance is extremely sensitive to state initialisation accuracy: good initial state estimates ensure fast convergence whereas poor estimates may give rise to slow convergence or even filter divergence. Divergence is generally due to excessive observation noise and leads to error magnitudes that quickly become unbounded (R.J. Fitzgerald, 1971). When a filter diverges, it must be re initialised but because the observations are extremely poor, re initialised states will have poor estimates. The paper proposes that if neurofuzzy estimators produce more accurate state estimates than those calculated from the observed noisy inputs (using the known state model), then neurofuzzy estimates can be used to initialise the states of Kalman and extended Kalman filters. Filters whose states have been initialised with neurofuzzy estimates should give improved performance by way of faster convergence when the filter is initialised, and when a filter is re started after divergence

Intelligent collision avoidance, control and guidance

This paper reviews a variety of advanced signal processing algorithms that have been developed at the University of Southampton as part of the Prometheus (Programme for European traffic flow with highest efficiency and unprecedented safety) programme to achieve an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS). The IDWS includes the detection of road edges, lanes, obstacles and their tracking and identification, estimates of time to collision, and behavioural modelling of drivers for a variety of scenarios. The underlying algorithms are briefly discussed in support of the IDWS.

A neurofuzzy approach to future intelligent driver support systems

This paper reviews a variety of advanced signal processing algorithms that have been developed at the University of Southampton as part of the Prometheus (PROgraMme for European Traffic flow with Highest Efficiency and Unprecedented Safety) research programme to achieve an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS). The IDWS includes: visual detection of both generic obstacles and other vehicles, together with their tracking and identification, estimates of time to collision and behavioural modelling of drivers for a variety of scenarios. These application areas are used to show the applicability of neurofuzzy techniques to the wide range of problems required to support an IDWS, and for future fully autonomous vehicles.

An Intelligent Driver Warning System

This chapter is focussed on the research and development of an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS) as a means to improve road safety and driving comfort. Two independent IDWS case studies are presented. The first study examines the methodology and implementation for attentive visual tracking and trajectory estimation for dynamic scene segmentation problems. In the second case study, the concept of driver modelling is evaluated which can be used to provide useful feedback to drivers. In both case studies, the quality of IDWS is largely determined by the modelling capability for estimating multiple vehicle trajectories and modelling driving behaviour. A class of modelling techniques based on neural-fuzzy systems, which exhibits provable learning and modelling capability, is proposed. For complex modelling problems where the curse of dimensionality becomes an issue, a network construction algorithm based on Adaptive Spline Modelling of Observation Data (ASMOD) is also proposed.

Predicting the need for adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck cancer

Background and purpose Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) can account for the dosimetric impact of anatomical change in head and neck cancer patients; however it can be resource intensive. Consequently, it is imperative that patients likely to require ART are identified. The purpose of this study was to find predictive factors that identify oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients more likely to need ART. Materials and methods One hundred and ten patients with OPC or NPC were analysed. Patient demographics and tumour characteristics were compared between patients who were replanned and those that were not. Factors found to be significant were included in logistic regression models. Risk profiles were developed from these models. A dosimetric analysis was performed. Results Nodal disease stage, pre-treatment largest involved node size, diagnosis and initial weight (categorised in 2 groups) were identified as significant for inclusion in the model. Two models were found to be significant (p = 0.001), correctly classifying 98.2% and 96.1% of patients respectively. Three ART risk profiles were developed. Conclusion Predictive factors identifying OPC or NPC patients more likely to require ART were reported. A risk profile approach could facilitate the effective implementation of ART into radiotherapy departments through forward planning and appropriate resource allocation.

Performance pay for Australian teachers: A critical policy historiography

In May 2011, the Australian Federal Education Minister announced there would be a unique, innovative and new policy of performance pay for teachers, Rewards for Great Teachers (Garrett, 2011a). In response, this paper uses critical policy historiography to argue that the unintended consequences of performance pay for teachers makes it unlikely it will deliver improved quality or efficiency in Australian schools. What is new, in the Australian context, is that performance pay is one of a raft of education policies being driven by the federal government within a system that constitutionally and historically has placed the responsibility for schooling with the states and territories. Since 2008, a key platform of the Australian federal Labor government has been a commitment to an Education Revolution that would promote quality, equity and accountability in Australian schools. This commitment has resulted in new national initiatives impacting on Australian schools including a high-stakes testing regime 14 National Assessment Program 13 Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) 14a mandated national curriculum (the Australian Curriculum), professional standards for teachers and teacher accreditation 14Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership (AITSL) 14and the idea of rewarding excellent teachers through performance pay (Garrett, 2011b). These reforms demonstrate the increased influence of the federal government in education policy processes and the growth of a 1Ccoercive federalism 1D that pits the state and federal governments against each other (Harris-Hart, 2010). Central to these initiatives is the measuring, or auditing, of educational practices and relationships. While this shift in education policy hegemony from state to federal governments has been occurring in Australia at least since the 1970s, it has escalated and been transformed in more recent times with a greater emphasis on national human capital agendas which link education and training to Australia 19s international economic competitiveness (Lingard & Sellar, in press). This paper uses historically informed critical analysis to critique claims about the effects of such policies. We argue that performance pay has a detailed and complex historical trajectory both internationally and within Australian states. Using Gale 19s (2001) critical policy historiography, we illuminate some of the effects that performance pay policies have had on education internationally and in particular within Australia. This critical historical lens also provides opportunities to highlight how teachers have, in the past, tactically engaged with such policies.

The role of emotions in service customer decision-making

This chapter explains how customers make purchase decisions and how these decisions are influenced not only by the service marketer but also by the customers own emotions. While decision-making is described from the perspective of purchasing services rather than purchasing goods, we challenge the traditional notion that customers make informed, rational and well-thought-out decisions. Rather customers are often driven by subjective feelings such as emotions. We present evidence of how these emotions influence the behavior of customers, their attitudes and evaluation of the service, as well as final decision-making processes.

Ethical leadership in a time of increasing accountability

Australia, like many other countries, has embraced national testing as part of wider reforms and increased accountability in schooling. Results for standardised testing programs, such as NAPLAN, are widely published yet form only one part of accountability for educators. We argue that accountability also has moral, ethical and professional dimensions. In this paper we offer a discussion of background to our study of ethical leadership in a time of data driven or contractual accountability. Based on Starratt’s (1996) model, we define ethical leadership as a social, relational practice concerned with the moral purpose of education (Angus, 2006). Our central thesis is that given increasing accountabilities, school leaders need to consider approaches to ethical leadership to improve quality and equity in education and achieve equitable outcomes for all students. The paper concludes with key implications for school leaders.

Short-rib polydactyly and jeune syndromes are caused by mutations in WDR60

Short-rib polydactyly syndromes (SRPS I-V) are a group of lethal congenital disorders characterized by shortening of the ribs and long bones, polydactyly, and a range of extraskeletal phenotypes. A number of other disorders in this grouping, including Jeune and Ellis-van Creveld syndromes, have an overlapping but generally milder phenotype. Collectively, these short-rib dysplasias (with or without polydactyly) share a common underlying defect in primary cilium function and form a subset of the ciliopathy disease spectrum. By using whole-exome capture and massive parallel sequencing of DNA from an affected Australian individual with SRPS type III, we detected two novel heterozygous mutations in WDR60, a relatively uncharacterized gene. These mutations segregated appropriately in the unaffected parents and another affected family member, confirming compound heterozygosity, and both were predicted to have a damaging effect on the protein. Analysis of an additional 54 skeletal ciliopathy exomes identified compound heterozygous mutations in WDR60 in a Spanish individual with Jeune syndrome of relatively mild presentation. Of note, these two families share one novel WDR60 missense mutation, although haplotype analysis suggested no shared ancestry. We further show that WDR60 localizes at the base of the primary cilium in wild-type human chondrocytes, and analysis of fibroblasts from affected individuals revealed a defect in ciliogenesis and aberrant accumulation of the GLI2 transcription factor at the centrosome or basal body in the absence of an obvious axoneme. These findings show that WDR60 mutations can cause skeletal ciliopathies and suggest a role for WDR60 in ciliogenesis.

Mutations in the gene encoding IFT dynein complex component WDR34 cause jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy

Bidirectional (anterograde and retrograde) motor-based intraflagellar transport (IFT) governs cargo transport and delivery processes that are essential for primary cilia growth and maintenance and for hedgehog signaling functions. The IFT dynein-2 motor complex that regulates ciliary retrograde protein transport contains a heavy chain dynein ATPase/motor subunit, DYNC2H1, along with other less well functionally defined subunits. Deficiency of IFT proteins, including DYNC2H1, underlies a spectrum of skeletal ciliopathies. Here, by using exome sequencing and a targeted next-generation sequencing panel, we identified a total of 11 mutations in WDR34 in 9 families with the clinical diagnosis of Jeune syndrome (asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy). WDR34 encodes a WD40 repeat-containing protein orthologous to Chlamydomonas FAP133, a dynein intermediate chain associated with the retrograde intraflagellar transport motor. Three-dimensional protein modeling suggests that the identified mutations all affect residues critical for WDR34 protein-protein interactions. We find that WDR34 concentrates around the centrioles and basal bodies in mammalian cells, also showing axonemal staining. WDR34 coimmunoprecipitates with the dynein-1 light chain DYNLL1 in vitro, and mining of proteomics data suggests that WDR34 could represent a previously unrecognized link between the cytoplasmic dynein-1 and IFT dynein-2 motors. Together, these data show that WDR34 is critical for ciliary functions essential to normal development and survival, most probably as a previously unrecognized component of the mammalian dynein-IFT machinery.

COL1A1 C-propeptide cleavage site mutation causes high bone mass, bone fragility and jaw lesions: A new cause of gnathodiaphyseal dysplasia?

Gnathodiaphyseal dysplasia (GDD) is a rare autosomal dominant condition characterized by bone fragility, irregular bone mineral density (BMD) and fibro-osseous lesions in the skull and jaw. Mutations in Anoctamin-5 (ANO5) have been identified in some cases. We aimed to identify the causative mutation in a family with features of GDD but no mutation in ANO5, using whole exome capture and massive parallel sequencing (WES). WES of two affected individuals (a mother and son) and the mother's unaffected parents identified a mutation in the C-propeptide cleavage site of COL1A1. Similar mutations have been reported in individuals with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) and paradoxically increased BMD. C-propeptide cleavage site mutations in COL1A1 may not only cause 'high bone mass OI', but also the clinical features of GDD, specifically irregular sclerotic BMD and fibro-osseous lesions in the skull and jaw. GDD patients negative for ANO5 mutations should be assessed for mutations in type I collagen C-propeptide cleavage sites.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: Evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1–36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking. Objective To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England. Data sources Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases – including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases – were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references. Review methods References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI. Results Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data. Conclusions Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

Anti-staphylococcal activity of C-methyl flavanones from propolis of Australian stingless bees (Tetragonula carbonaria) and fruit resins of Corymbia torelliana (Myrtaceae)

Propolis of Australian stingless bees (Tetragonula carbonaria, Meliponini) originating from Corymbia torelliana (Myrtaceae) fruit resins was tested for its antimicrobial activities as well as its flavonoid contents. This study aimed at the isolation, structural elucidation and antibacterial testing of flavanones of C. torelliana fruit resins that are incorporated into stingless bee propolis. Flavanones of this study were elucidated by spectroscopic and spectrometric methods including UV, 1D and 2D NMR, EI-MS, ESI-MS and HR-MS. The results indicated known C-methylated flavanones namely, 1 (2S)-cryptostrobin, its regioisomer 2 (2S)- stroboponin, 3 (2S)- cryptostrobin 7-methyl ether, and 6 (2S)- desmethoxymatteucinol, and known flavanones 4 (2S)- pinostrobin and 5 (2S)- pinocembrin as markers for C. torelliana fruit resins and one propolis type. Ethanolic preparations of propolis were shown to be active against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) and to a lesser extent against Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853). C. torelliana flavanones inhibited the growth of S. aureus therefore contributing to the antibacterial effects observed for Australian stingless bee propolis extracts.

Archiving primary data: Solutions for long-term studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.