State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Developmental and pathological lymphangiogenesis: from models to human disease.

The lymphatic vascular system, the body's second vascular system present in vertebrates, has emerged in recent years as a crucial player in normal and pathological processes. It participates in the maintenance of normal tissue fluid balance, the immune functions of cellular and antigen trafficking and absorption of fatty acids and lipid-soluble vitamins in the gut. Recent scientific discoveries have highlighted the role of lymphatic system in a number of pathologic conditions, including lymphedema, inflammatory diseases, and tumor metastasis. Development of genetically modified animal models, identification of lymphatic endothelial specific markers and regulators coupled with technological advances such as high-resolution imaging and genome-wide approaches have been instrumental in understanding the major steps controlling growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. This review highlights the recent insights and developments in the field of lymphatic vascular biology.

Evaluation of tumor vascularisation in two rat sarcoma models for studying isolated lung perfusion : Injection route determines the origin of tumour vessels

Résumé Introduction: La perfusion isolée cytostatique du poumon est une technique attractive qui permet l'administration des doses élevées d'un agent cytostatique tout en épargnant dans la mesure du possible la circulation systémique. Cependant, la perfusion de l'artère pulmonaire risque d'épargner le territoire pulmonaire vascularisé par l'intermédiaire des artères bronchiques, ce qui pourrait diminuer l'efficacité de ce traitement au cas où la lésion ciblée est vascularisée par les artères bronchiques. Ce travail est destiné au développement d'un modèle tumoral au niveau des poumons de rongeur (rat) porteur d'un sarcome pulmonaire afin de déterminer si la voie d'injection des cellules tumorales (intraveineuse, versus intratumorale) influencera la vascularisation des tumeurs (provenant du système artères pulmonaires ou artères bronchiques). Méthod: Des tumeurs de sarcomes pulmonaires ont été générées par injection d'une suspension cellulaire de sarcome, soit par injection intraveineuse, soit directement dans le parenchyme pulmonaire par thoracotomie. Ensuite, une perfusion isolée du poumon porteur de la tumeur à l'aide de l'encre a été effectuée, soit par l'artère pulmonaire, soit par le système des artères bronchiques. La distribution de l'encre dans les vaisseaux tumoraux ainsi que dans les vaisseaux non tumoraux du poumon adjacent a été investiguée à l'aide d'une analyse histologique des poumons perfusés. Résultat: L'administration intraveineuse et intratumorale de la suspension de cellules tumorales résulte en des tumeurs similaires sur le plan histologique. Néanmoins, l'injection intra-parenchymateuse démontre des tumeurs plus homogènes et avec un développement plus prédictible, était associée à une survie plus longue qu'après injection intraveineuse. Les analyses histologiques après perfusion isolée à l'aide de l'encre démontre que les tumeurs résultant de l'injection intraveineuse ont développé une vascularisation se basant sur le système d'artères pulmonaires tandis que les tumeurs émergeant après injection intraparenchymateuse ont développé une vascularisation provenant du système des artères bronchiques. Conclusion: Ce travail démontre pour la première fois l'importance du mode de génération de tumeurs pulmonaires en ce qui concerne leur future vascularisation, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur leur traitement par perfusion isolée du poumon. Abstract Isolated cytostatic lung perfusion (ILP) is an attractive technique allowing delivery of a high-dose of cytostatic agents to the lungs while limiting systemic toxicity. In developing a rat model of ILP, we have analysed the effect of the route of tumour cell injection on the source of tumour vessels. Pulmonary sarcomas were estab¬lished by injecting a sarcoma cell suspension either by the intravenous (i.v.) route or directly into the lung paren¬chyma. Ink perfusion through either pulmonary artery (PA) or bronchial arteries (BA) was performed and the characteristics of the tumour deposits defined. i.v. and direct injection methods induced pulmonary sarcoma nodules, with similar histological features. The intraparenchymal injection of tumour cells resulted in more reli¬able and reproducible tumour growth and was associat¬ed with a longer survival of the animals. i.v. injected tumours developed a PA-derived vascular tree whereas directly injected tumours developed a BA-derived vasculature.

A flow cytometry based oligotrophic pollutant exposure test to detect bacterial growth inhibition and cell injury.

Toxicity of chemical pollutants in aquatic environments is often addressed by assays that inquire reproductive inhibition of test microorganisms, such as algae or bacteria. Those tests, however, assess growth of populations as a whole via macroscopic methods such as culture turbidity or colony-forming units. Here we use flow cytometry to interrogate the fate of individual cells in low-density populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SV3 exposed or not under oligotrophic conditions to a number of common pollutants, some of which derive from oil contamination. Cells were stained at regular time intervals during the exposure assay with fluorescent dyes that detect membrane injury (i.e., live-dead assay). Reduction of population growth rates was observed upon toxicant insult and depended on the type of toxicant. Modeling and cell staining indicate that population growth rate decrease is a combined effect of an increased number of injured cells that may or may not multiply, and live cells dividing at normal growth rates. The oligotrophic assay concept presented here could be a useful complement for existing biomarker assays in compliance with new regulations on chemical effect studies or, more specifically, for judging recovery after exposure to fluctuating toxicant conditions.

Effect of antenatal corticosteroids on fetal growth and gestational age at birth.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids on neonatal size, controlling for gestational age at birth and other confounders, and to determine whether there was a dose-response relationship between number of courses of antenatal corticosteroids and neonatal size. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study, a double-blind randomized controlled trial of single compared with multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids in women at risk for preterm birth and in which fetuses administered multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids weighed less, were shorter, and had smaller head circumferences at birth. All women (n=1,858) and children (n=2,304) enrolled in the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study were included in the current analysis. Multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, neonates in the antenatal corticosteroids group were born earlier (estimated difference and confidence interval [CI]: -0.428 weeks, CI -0.10264 to -0.75336; P=.01). Controlling for gestational age at birth and confounding factors, multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with a decrease in birth weight (-33.50 g, CI -66.27120 to -0.72880; P=.045), length (-0.339 cm, CI -0.6212 to -0.05676]; P=.019), and head circumference (-0.296 cm, -0.45672 to -0.13528; P<.001). For each additional course of antenatal corticosteroids, there was a trend toward an incremental decrease in birth weight, length, and head circumference. CONCLUSION: Fetuses exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were smaller at birth. The reduction in size was partially attributed to being born at an earlier gestational age but also was attributed to decreased fetal growth. Finally, a dose-response relationship exists between the number of corticosteroid courses and a decrease in fetal growth. The long-term effect of these findings is unknown. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00187382. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in the treatment of high-risk febrile neutropenia: a multicenter randomized trial.

BACKGROUND Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) have been shown to help prevent febrile neutropenia in certain subgroups of cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, but their role in treating febrile neutropenia is controversial. The purpose of our study was to evaluate-in a prospective multicenter randomized clinical trial-the efficacy of adding G-CSF to broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment of patients with solid tumors and high-risk febrile neutropenia. METHODS A total of 210 patients with solid tumors treated with conventional-dose chemotherapy who presented with fever and grade IV neutropenia were considered to be eligible for the trial. They met at least one of the following high-risk criteria: profound neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count <100/mm(3)), short latency from previous chemotherapy cycle (<10 days), sepsis or clinically documented infection at presentation, severe comorbidity, performance status of 3-4 (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale), or prior inpatient status. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive the antibiotics ceftazidime and amikacin, with or without G-CSF (5 microg/kg per day). The primary study end point was the duration of hospitalization. All P values were two-sided. RESULTS Patients randomly assigned to receive G-CSF had a significantly shorter duration of grade IV neutropenia (median, 2 days versus 3 days; P = 0.0004), antibiotic therapy (median, 5 days versus 6 days; P = 0.013), and hospital stay (median, 5 days versus 7 days; P = 0.015) than patients in the control arm. The incidence of serious medical complications not present at the initial clinical evaluation was 10% in the G-CSF group and 17% in the control group (P = 0.12), including five deaths in each study arm. The median cost of hospital stay and the median overall cost per patient admission were reduced by 17% (P = 0.01) and by 11% (P = 0.07), respectively, in the G-CSF arm compared with the control arm. CONCLUSIONS Adding G-CSF to antibiotic therapy shortens the duration of neutropenia, reduces the duration of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization, and decreases hospital costs in patients with high-risk febrile neutropenia.

Ideas, Possibilities and Limitations of Sustainable Economic Policy – the Example of Ecological Economics

A mesura que el suport del creixement econòmic constitueix un objectiu fonamental de la formulació de polítiques econòmiques, cal assenyalar que aquest tipus de creixement està limitat naturalment per un planeta finit. Aquest article argumenta que, des del punt de vista de la justícia intergeneracional, la realització d'un concepte de desmaterialització i, com a efecte, d'una economia que no creix (en el sentit de dissociació absoluta del creixement econòmic i consum d'energia i materials) es pot justificar. Per tant, el creixement pot ser també entesa com la millora de la qualitat de vida sobretot en comptes d'ampliar quantitats escarpats de sortida. Per tant, una dràstica reducció del cabal de material es necessita, sobretot en els països d'alts ingressos. Després de presentar alguns crítica de les propostes, en el focus d'aquest article es dibuixen en els arguments de per què la política econòmica en el futur han de ser etiquetats com "ecològic" i, a continuació, les opcions de posar en acció les idees del teòric presentat marc en tasques manejables polítiques seran discutides. En aquest cas, s'argumentarà que l'enfocament clàssic de internalització d'efectes externs sovint seguides de decisions de política econòmica ortodoxa no és completament capaç de reflectir canvis ecològics en les estructures de preus dels mercats. Per tant, formal (industrial i l'establiment de la política de consum) i institucions informals (llars) representen punts clau de la política econòmica sostenible, assenyalant l'individu com així com la responsabilitat col · lectiva per omplir aquest buit substancial.

Modelling changes in stable isotope compositions of minerals during net transfer reactions in a contact aureole: Wollastonite growth at the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (Death Valley National Park, USA)

One of the world's largest wollastonite deposits was formed at the contact of the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (California, USA) in Paleozoic sediments. Wollastonite occurs as zones of variable thickness surrounding layers or nodules of quartzite in limestones. A minimum formation temperature of 650 degrees C is estimated from isolated periclase-bearing lenses in that area. Contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonates has produced mineral assemblages that are consistent with heterogeneous, and partly limited infiltration of water-rich fluids, compatible with O-18/O-16 and C-13/C-12 isotopic patterns recorded in carbonates. Oxygen isotope compositions of wollastonites in the study area may also not require infiltration of large quantities of externally-derived fluids that were out of equilibrium with the rocks. 8180 values of wollastonite are high (14.8 parts per thousand to 25.0 parts per thousand; median: 19.7 parts per thousand) and close to those of the host limestone (19.7 parts per thousand to 28 parts per thousand; median: 24.9 parts per thousand) and quartz (18.0 parts per thousand. to 29.1 parts per thousand; median: 22.6 parts per thousand). Isotopic disequilibrium exists at quartz/wollastonite and wollastonite/calcite boundaries. Therefore, classical batch/Rayleigh fractionation models based on reactant and product equilibrium are not applicable to the wollastonite rims. An approach that relies on local instantaneous mass balance for the reactants, based on the wollastonite-forming reaction is suggested as an alternative way to model wollastonite reaction rims. This model reproduces many of the measured delta O-18 values of wollastonite reaction rims of the current study to within +/- 1 parts per thousand, even though the wollastonite compositions vary by almost 10 parts per thousand. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaction-diffusion waves of advance in the transition to agricultural economics

In a previous paper [J.Fort and V.Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)], the possible importance of higher-order terms in a human population wave of advance has been studied. However, only a few such terms were considered. Here we develop a theory including all higher-order terms. Results are in good agreement with the experimental evidence involving the expansion of agriculture in Europe

Prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and ultrasound measures of fetal growth in the INMA Sabadell cohort

Background: Few studies have used longitudinal ultrasound measurements to assess the effect of traffic-related air pollution on fetal growth.Objective: We examined the relationship between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and aromatic hydrocarbons [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX)] on fetal growth assessed by 1,692 ultrasound measurements among 562 pregnant women from the Sabadell cohort of the Spanish INMA (Environment and Childhood) study.Methods: We used temporally adjusted land-use regression models to estimate exposures to NO2 and BTEX. We fitted mixed-effects models to estimate longitudinal growth curves for femur length (FL), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), biparietal diameter (BPD), and estimated fetal weight (EFW). Unconditional and conditional SD scores were calculated at 12, 20, and 32 weeks of gestation. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering time–activity patterns during pregnancy.Results: Exposure to BTEX from early pregnancy was negatively associated with growth in BPD during weeks 20–32. None of the other fetal growth parameters were associated with exposure to air pollution during pregnancy. When considering only women who spent 2 hr/day in nonresidential outdoor locations, effect estimates were stronger and statistically significant for the association between NO2 and growth in HC during weeks 12–20 and growth in AC, BPD, and EFW during weeks 20–32.Conclusions: Our results lend some support to an effect of exposure to traffic-related air pollutants from early pregnancy on fetal growth during mid-pregnancy.

How does the body-scale model affect back-calculated growth: the example of arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

When back-calculating fish length from scale measurements, the choice of the body-scale relationship is a fundamental step. Using data from the arctic charrSalvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) we show the need for a curvilinear model, on both statistical and biological grounds. From several 2-parameters models, the log-linear relationship appears to provide the best fit. A 3-parameters, Bertalanffy model did not improve the fit. We show moreover that using the proportional model would lead to important misinterpretations of the data.

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.