Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

The effects of dexmedetomidine/remifentanil and midazolam/remifentanil on auditory-evoked potentials and electroencephalogram at light-to-moderate sedation levels in healthy subjects

Avoidance of excessively deep sedation levels is problematic in intensive care patients. Electrophysiologic monitoring may offer an approach to solving this problem. Since electroencephalogram (EEG) responses to different sedation regimens vary, we assessed electrophysiologic responses to two sedative drug regimens in 10 healthy volunteers. Dexmedetomidine/remifentanil (dex/remi group) and midazolam/remifentanil (mida/remi group) were infused 7 days apart. Each combination of medications was given at stepwise intervals to reach Ramsay scores (RS) 2, 3, and 4. Resting EEG, bispectral index (BIS), and the N100 amplitudes of long-latency auditory-evoked potentials (ERP) were recorded at each level of sedation. During dex/remi, resting EEG was characterized by a recurrent high-power low-frequency pattern which became more pronounced at deeper levels of sedation. BIS Index decreased uniformly in only the dex/remi group (from 94 +/- 3 at baseline to 58 +/- 14 at RS 4) compared to the mida/remi group (from 94 +/- 2 to 76 +/- 10; P = 0.029 between groups). The ERP amplitudes decreased from 5.3 +/- 1.3 at baseline to 0.4 +/- 1.1 at RS 4 (P = 0.003) in only the mida/remi group. We conclude that ERPs in volunteers sedated with dex/remi, in contrast to mida/remi, indicate a cortical response to acoustic stimuli, even when sedation reaches deeper levels. Consequently, ERP can monitor sedation with midazolam but not with dexmedetomidine. The reverse is true for BIS.

Sex Differences in Semantic Processing: Event-Related Brain Potentials Distinguish between Lower and Higher Order Semantic Analysis during Word Reading

Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.

Multilead quantitative electroencephalogram profile and cognitive evoked potentials (P300) in healthy subjects after a single dose of olanzapine

RATIONALE: Olanzapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug with a more favourable safety profile than typical antipsychotics with a hitherto unknown topographic quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) profile. OBJECTIVES: We investigated electrical brain activity (QEEG and cognitive event related potentials, ERPs) in healthy subjects who received olanzapine. METHODS: Vigilance-controlled, 19-channel EEG and ERP in an auditory odd-ball paradigm were recorded before and 3 h, 6 h and 9 h after administration of either a single dose of placebo or olanzapine (2.5 mg and 5 mg) in ten healthy subjects. QEEG was analysed by spectral analysis and evaluated in nine frequency bands. For the P300 component in the odd-ball ERP, the amplitude and latency was analysed. Statistical effects were tested using a repeated-measurement analysis of variance. RESULTS: For the interaction between time and treatment, significant effects were observed for theta, alpha-2, beta-2 and beta-4 frequency bands. The amplitude of the activity in the theta band increased most significantly 6 h after the 5-mg administration of olanzapine. A pronounced decrease of the alpha-2 activity especially 9 h after 5 mg olanzapine administration could be observed. In most beta frequency bands, and most significantly in the beta-4 band, a dose-dependent decrease of the activity beginning 6 h after drug administration was demonstrated. Topographic effects could be observed for the beta-2 band (occipital decrease) and a tendency for the alpha-2 band (frontal increase and occipital decrease), both indicating a frontal shift of brain electrical activity. There were no significant changes in P300 amplitude or latency after drug administration. Conclusion: QEEG alterations after olanzapine administration were similar to EEG effects gained by other atypical antipsychotic drugs, such as clozapine. The increase of theta activity is comparable to the frequency distribution observed for thymoleptics or antipsychotics for which treatment-emergent somnolence is commonly observed, whereas the decrease of beta activity observed after olanzapine administration is not characteristic for these drugs. There were no clear signs for an increased cerebral excitability after a single-dose administration of 2.5 mg and 5 mg olanzapine in healthy controls.

Meta-analysis in medical research: potentials and limitations

Meta-analysis, the statistical combination of results from several studies to produce a single estimate of a treatment effect or size of an association, continues to attract controversy. We illustrate and discuss the promises and limitations of meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of clinical trials can prevent delays in the introduction of effective treatments or lead to the timely identification of adverse effects. However, meta-analyses are liable to numerous biases, both at the level of the individual study and the selection of studies for inclusion in meta-analysis. The biases and confounding factors that threaten the validity of individual studies will also affect meta-analyses of observational studies. We argue that meta-analyses should only be performed within the framework of systematic reviews that have been prepared using methods that minimize bias and address the combinability of studies.

Significance of coil orientation for motor evoked potentials from nasalis muscle elicited by transcranial magnetic stimulation

OBJECTIVE: In transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of the motor cortex, the optimal orientation of the coil on the scalp is dependent on the muscle under investigation, but not yet known for facial muscles. METHODS: Using a figure-of-eight coil, we compared TMS induced motor evoked potentials (MEPs) from eight different coil orientations when recording from ipsi- and contralateral nasalis muscle. RESULTS: The MEPs from nasalis muscle revealed three components: The major ipsi- and contra-lateral middle latency responses of approximately 10 ms onset latency proved entirely dependent on voluntary pre-innervation. They were most easily obtained from a coil orientation with posterior inducing current direction, and in this respect resembled the intrinsic hand rather than the masseter muscles. Early short duration responses of around 6 ms onset latency were best elicited with an antero-lateral current direction and not pre-innervation dependent, and therefore most probably due to stimulation of the nerve roots. Late responses (>18 ms) could inconsistently be elicited with posterior coil orientations in pre-innervated condition. CONCLUSIONS: By using the appropriate coil orientation and both conditions relaxed and pre-innervated, cortically evoked MEP responses from nasalis muscle can reliably be separated from peripheral and reflex components and also from cross talk of masseter muscle activation.

Effect of discharge desynchronization on the size of motor evoked potentials: an analysis

OBJECTIVE: Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) after transcranial magnetic brain stimulation (TMS) are smaller than CMAPs after peripheral nerve stimulation, because desynchronization of the TMS-induced motor neurone discharges occurs (i.e. MEP desynchronization). This desynchronization effect can be eliminated by use of the triple stimulation technique (TST; Brain 121 (1998) 437). The objective of this paper is to study the effect of discharge desynchronization on MEPs by comparing the size of MEP and TST responses. METHODS: MEP and TST responses were obtained in 10 healthy subjects during isometric contractions of the abductor digiti minimi, during voluntary background contractions between 0% and 20% of maximal force, and using 3 different stimulus intensities. Additional data from other normals and from multiple sclerosis (MS) patients were obtained from previous studies. RESULTS: MEPs were smaller than TST responses in all subjects and under all stimulating conditions, confirming the marked influence of desynchronization on MEPs. There was a linear relation between the amplitudes of MEPs vs. TST responses, independent of the degree of voluntary contraction and stimulus intensity. The slope of the regression equation was 0.66 on average, indicating that desynchronization reduced the MEP amplitude on average by one third, with marked inter-individual variations. A similar average proportion was found in MS patients. CONCLUSIONS: The MEP size reduction induced by desynchronization is not influenced by the intensity of TMS and by the level of facilitatory voluntary background contractions. It is similar in healthy subjects and in MS patients, in whom increased desynchronization of central conduction was previously suggested to occur. Thus, the MEP size reduction observed may not parallel the actual amount of desynchronization.

Trial-to-trial size variability of motor-evoked potentials. A study using the triple stimulation technique

Motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) vary in size from one stimulus to the next. The objective of this study was to determine the cause and source of trial-to-trial MEP size variability. In two experiments involving 10 and 14 subjects, the variability of MEPs to cortical stimulation (cortical-MEPs) in abductor digiti minimi (ADM) and abductor hallucis (AH) was compared to those responses obtained using the triple stimulation technique (cortical-TST). The TST eliminates the effects of motor neuron (MN) response desynchronization and of repetitive MN discharges. Submaximal stimuli were used in both techniques. In six subjects, cortical-MEP variability was compared to that of brainstem-MEP and brainstem-TST. Variability was greater for MEPs than that for TST responses, by approximately one-third. The variability was the same for cortical- and brainstem-MEPs and was similar in ADM and AH. Variability concerned at least 10-15% of the MN pool innervating the target muscle. With the stimulation parameters used, repetitive MN discharges did not influence variability. For submaximal stimuli, approximately two-third of the observed MEP size variability is caused by the variable number of recruited alpha-MNs and approximately one-third by changing synchronization of MN discharges. The source of variability is most likely localized at the spinal segmental level.

Velocity recovery cycles of human muscle action potentials and their sensitivity to ischemia

This study was undertaken to test whether recovery cycle measurements can provide useful information about the membrane potential of human muscle fibers. Multifiber responses to direct muscle stimulation through needle electrodes were recorded from the brachioradialis of healthy volunteers, and the latency changes measured as conditioning stimuli were applied at interstimulus intervals of 2-1000 ms. In all subjects, the relative refractory period (RRP), which lasted 3.27 +/- 0.45 ms (mean +/- SD, n = 12), was followed by a phase of supernormality, in which the velocity increased by 9.3 +/- 3.4% at 6.1 +/- 1.3 ms, and recovered over 1 s. A broad hump of additional supernormality was seen at around 100 ms. Extra conditioning stimuli had little effect on the early supernormality but increased the later component. The two phases of supernormality resembled early and late afterpotentials, attributable respectively to the passive decay of membrane charge and potassium accumulation in the t-tubules. Five minutes of ischemia progressively prolonged the RRP and reduced supernormality, confirming that these parameters are sensitive to membrane depolarization. Velocity recovery cycles may provide useful information about altered muscle membrane potential and t-tubule function in muscle disease. Muscle Nerve, 2008.