Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Inverse Metabolic Engineering of Synechocystis PCC 6803 for Improved Growth Rate and Poly-3-hydroxybutyrate Production

Synechocystis PCC 6803 is a photosynthetic bacterium that has the potential to make bioproducts from carbon dioxide and light. Biochemical production from photosynthetic organisms is attractive because it replaces the typical bioprocessing steps of crop growth, milling, and fermentation, with a one-step photosynthetic process. However, low yields and slow growth rates limit the economic potential of such endeavors. Rational metabolic engineering methods are hindered by limited cellular knowledge and inadequate models of Synechocystis. Instead, inverse metabolic engineering, a scheme based on combinatorial gene searches which does not require detailed cellular models, but can exploit sequence data and existing molecular biological techniques, was used to find genes that (1) improve the production of the biopolymer poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) and (2) increase the growth rate. A fluorescence activated cell sorting assay was developed to screen for high PHB producing clones. Separately, serial sub-culturing was used to select clones that improve growth rate. Novel gene knock-outs were identified that increase PHB production and others that increase the specific growth rate. These improvements make this system more attractive for industrial use and demonstrate the power of inverse metabolic engineering to identify novel phenotype-associated genes in poorly understood systems.

Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth

Se utiliza un modelo de innovaciones sesgadas para estudiar los efectos de cambios exógenos en la oferta laboral. En un contexto de innovaciones sesgadas, a medida que las economías acumulan capital, el trabajo se hace relativamente más escaso y más caro, por este motivo, hay incentivos para adoptar tecnologías ahorradoras de trabajo. Del mismo modo un cambio en la oferta laboral afecta la abundancia de factores y sus precios relativos. En general, una reducción de la oferta laboral, hace que el trabajo sea más caro y genera incentivos para cambio tecnológico ahorrador de trabajo. Así, el efecto inicial que tiene el cambio en la oferta laboral sobre los precios de los factores es mitigado por el cambio tecnológico. Finalmente, los movimientos en la remuneración a los factores afectan las decisiones de ahorro y, por lo tanto, la dinámica del crecimiento. En este trabajo se exploran las consecuencias de una reducción de la oferta laboral en dos contextos teóricos diferentes: un modelo de agentes homogéneos y horizonte infinito y un modelo de generaciones traslapadas.

Revisiting the Relationship between Income Distribution and Economic Growth

La mayoría de los modelos que exploran la relación entre la desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso y el crecimiento económico, postulan la existencia de una correlación negativa entre las dos que es generada a través de diferentes mecanismos. Paralelamente a los modelos teóricos, un número importante de estudios empíricos han tratado de evaluar esta relación. De este esfuerzo ha surgido un consenso amplio que valida la existencia de dicha relación negativa. No obstante, estudios recientes basados en el uso de datos de panel han producido el resultado contrario, documentando la presencia de una relación positiva entre desigualdad y crecimiento. El examen del debate generado a partir de estos resultados, así como el trabajo empírico adelantado en este estudio, indican que las estimaciones obtenidas en diversos trabajos pueden no ser tan robustas como se creía En consecuencia, se sugiere que la realización de estudios de caso por país puede ser una mejor vía para explorar este tema.

Essays on International trade and economic growth

At present, we are witnessing globalization as a truly worldwide phenomenon. Trade agreements among differing countries, a reduction in trade costs, the mobility of production factors, the free flow of information and so on are all proof of the present day era of globalization. Countries are trading with one another more and more every day and the effects of international trade on economies represent a central discussion in all economic spheres. In spite of increasing trade around the world and the promotion of globalization by multilateral organisms such as WTO and IMF, the effects of international trade are not yet clear. Economics literature concerning the effects of international trade on economic growth and welfare remains ambiguous in terms of both theoretical models and empirical research. The present thesis tries to contribute to the theoretical debate surrounding the effects of dynamic international trade, focusing in particular on the implications for economic growth, welfare and changes in the preferences of individuals.

Numerical model of solid phase transformations governed by nucleation and growth: microstructure development during isothermal crystallization

A simple numerical model which calculates the kinetics of crystallization involving randomly distributed nucleation and isotropic growth is presented. The model can be applied to different thermal histories and no restrictions are imposed on the time and the temperature dependences of the nucleation and growth rates. We also develop an algorithm which evaluates the corresponding emerging grain-size distribution. The algorithm is easy to implement and particularly flexible, making it possible to simulate several experimental conditions. Its simplicity and minimal computer requirements allow high accuracy for two- and three-dimensional growth simulations. The algorithm is applied to explore the grain morphology development during isothermal treatments for several nucleation regimes. In particular, thermal nucleation, preexisting nuclei, and the combination of both nucleation mechanisms are analyzed. For the first two cases, the universal grain-size distribution is obtained. The high accuracy of the model is stated from its comparison to analytical predictions. Finally, the validity of the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model SSSR, is verified for all the cases studied

Avaluació de la toxicitat de metalls pesants i arsènic en diferents models biològics

En aquest estudi, la toxicitat de diversos metalls pesants i l'arsènic va ser analitzada utilitzant diferents models biològics. En la primera part d'aquest treball, el bioassaig de toxicitat Microtox, el qual està basat en la variació de l'emissió lumínica del bacteri luminiscent Vibrio fischeri, va ser utilitzat per establir les corbes dosi-resposta de diferents elements tòxics com el Zn(II), Pb(II), Cu(II), Hg(II), Ag(I), Co(II), Cd(II), Cr(VI), As(V) i As(III) en solucions aquoses. Els experiments es varen portar a terme a pH 6.0 i 7.0 per tal de mostrar que el pH pot influir en la toxicitat final mesurada d'alguns metalls degut als canvis relacionats amb la seva especiació química. Es varen trobar diferents tipus de corbes dosi-resposta depenent del metall analitzat i el pH del medi. En el cas de l'arsènic, l'efecte del pH en la toxicitat de l'arsenat i l'arsenit es va investigar utilitzant l'assaig Microtox en un rang de pHs comprès entre pH 5.0 i 9.0. Els valors d'EC50 determinats per l'As(V) disminueixen, reflectint un augment de la toxicitat, a mesura que el pH de la solució augmenta mentre que, en el cas de l'As(III), els valors d'EC50 quasi bé no varien entre pH 6.0 i 8.0 i només disminueixen a pH 9.0. HAsO42- i H2AsO3- es varen definir com les espècies més tòxiques. Així mateix, una anàlisi estadística va revelar un efecte antagònic entre les espècies químiques d'arsenat que es troben conjuntament a pH 6.0 i 7.0. D'altra banda, els resultats de dos mètodes estadístics per predir la toxicitat i les possibles interaccions entre el Co(II), Cd(II), Cu(II), Zn(II) i Pb(II) en mescles binàries equitòxiques es varen comparar amb la toxicitat observada sobre el bacteri Vibrio fischeri. L'efecte combinat d'aquests metalls va resultar ser antagònic per les mescles de Co(II)-Cd(II), Cd(II)-Zn(II), Cd(II)-Pb(II) i Cu(II)-Pb(II), sinèrgic per Co(II)-Cu(II) i Zn(II)-Pb(II) i additiu en els altres casos, revelant un patró complex de possibles interaccions. L'efecte sinèrgic de la combinació Co(II)-Cu(II) i la forta disminució de la toxicitat del Pb(II) quan es troba en presència de Cd(II) hauria de merèixer més atenció quan s'estableixen les normatives de seguretat ambiental. La sensibilitat de l'assaig Microtox també va ser determinada. Els valors d'EC20, els quals representen la toxicitat llindar mesurable, varen ser determinats per cada element individualment i es va veure que augmenten de la següent manera: Pb(II) < Ag(I) < Hg(II)  Cu(II) < Zn(II) < As(V) < Cd(II)  Co(II) < As(III) < Cr(VI). Aquests valors es varen comparar amb les concentracions permeses en aigues residuals industrials establertes per la normativa oficial de Catalunya (Espanya). L'assaig Microtox va resultar ser suficientment sensible per detectar els elements assajats respecte a les normes oficials referents al control de la contaminació, excepte en el cas del cadmi, mercuri, arsenat, arsenit i cromat. En la segona part d'aquest treball, com a resultats complementaris dels resultats previs obtinguts utilitzant l'assaig de toxicitat aguda Microtox, els efectes crònics del Cd(II), Cr(VI) i As(V) es varen analitzar sobre la taxa de creixement i la viabilitat en el mateix model biològic. Sorprenentment, aquests productes químics nocius varen resultar ser poc tòxics per aquest bacteri quan es mesura el seu efecte després de temps d'exposició llargs. Tot i això, en el cas del Cr(VI), l'assaig d'inhibició de la viabilitat va resultar ser més sensible que l'assaig de toxicitat aguda Microtox. Així mateix, també va ser possible observar un clar fenomen d'hormesis, especialment en el cas del Cd(II), quan s'utilitza l'assaig d'inhibició de la viabilitat. A més a més, diversos experiments es varen portar a terme per intentar explicar la manca de toxicitat de Cr(VI) mostrada pel bacteri Vibrio fischeri. La resistència mostrada per aquest bacteri podria ser atribuïda a la capacitat d'aquest bacteri de convertir el Cr(VI) a la forma menys tòxica de Cr(III). Es va trobar que aquesta capacitat de reducció depèn de la composició del medi de cultiu, de la concentració inicial de Cr(VI), del temps d'incubació i de la presència d'una font de carboni. En la tercera part d'aquest treball, la línia cel·lular humana HT29 i cultius primaris de cèl·lules sanguínies de Sparus sarba es varen utilitzar in vitro per detectar la toxicitat llindar de metalls mesurant la sobreexpressió de proteines d'estrès. Extractes de fangs precedents de diverses plantes de tractament d'aigues residuals i diferents metalls, individualment o en combinació, es varen analitzar sobre cultius cel·lulars humans per avaluar el seu efecte sobre la taxa de creixement i la capacitat d'induir la síntesi de les proteïnes Hsp72 relacionades amb l'estrès cel·lular. No es varen trobar efectes adversos significatius quan els components s'analitzen individualment. Nogensmenys, quan es troben conjuntament, es produeix un afecte advers sobre tan la taxa de creixement com en l'expressió de proteins d'estrès. D'altra banda, cèl·lules sanguínies procedents de Sparus sarba es varen exposar in vitro a diferents concentracions de cadmi, plom i crom. La proteïna d'estrès HSP70 es va sobreexpressar significativament després de l'exposició a concentracions tan febles com 0.1 M. Sota les nostres condicions de treball, no es va evidenciar una sobreexpressió de metal·lotioneïnes. Nogensmenys, les cèl·lules sanguínies de peix varen resultar ser un model biològic interessant per a ser utilitzat en anàlisis de toxicitat. Ambdós models biològics varen resultar ser molt adequats per a detectar acuradament la toxicitat produïda per metalls. En general, l'avaluació de la toxicitat basada en l'anàlisi de la sobreexpressió de proteïnes d'estrès és més sensible que l'avaluació de la toxicitat realitzada a nivell d'organisme. A partir dels resultats obtinguts, podem concloure que una bateria de bioassaigs és realment necessària per avaluar acuradament la toxicitat de metalls ja que existeixen grans variacions entre els valors de toxicitat obtinguts emprant diferents organismes i molts factors ambientals poden influir i modificar els resultats obtinguts.

Paisatge i models urbans contemporanis. Les comarques gironines (1979-2006): del "desarrollismo" a la globalització

This doctoral thesis offers a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the changes in the urban shape and landscape of the Girona Counties between 1979 and 2006. The theoretical part of the research lies within the framework of the dispersed city phenomenon, and is based on the hypothesis of convergence towards a global urban model. The empirical part demonstrates this proposition with a study of 522 zone development plans in the Girona Counties. The results point to the consolidation of the dispersed city phenomenon, as shown by the sudden increase in built-up space, the spread of urban development throughout the territory, and the emergence of a new, increasingly generic landscape comprising three major morphological types: urban extensions, low density residential estates and industrial zones. This reveals shortcomings of planning for urban growth, weakening of the city as a public project, and a certain degradation of the Mediterranean city model.

Simulation of delamination in composites under quasi-static and fatigue loading using cohesive zone models

Es desenvolupa una eina de disseny per l'anàlisi de la tolerància al dany en composites. L'eina pot predir el inici i la propagació de fisures interlaminars. També pot ser utilitzada per avaluar i planificar la necessitat de reparar o reemplaçar components durant la seva vida útil. El model desenvolupat pot ser utilitzat tan per simular càrregues estàtiques com de fatiga. El model proposat és un model de dany termodinàmicament consistent que permet simular la delaminació en composites sota càrregues variables. El model es formula dins el context de la Mecànica del Dany, fent ús dels models de zona cohesiva. Es presenta un metodologia per determinar els paràmetres del model constitutiu que permet utilitzar malles d'elements finits més bastes de les que es poden usar típicament. Finalment, el model és també capaç de simular la delaminació produïda per càrregues de fatiga.

New insights on growth mechanisms of protein clusters at surfaces: an AFM and simulation study

Despite its relevance to a wide range of technological and fundamental areas, a quantitative understanding of protein surface clustering dynamics is often lacking. In inorganic crystal growth, surface clustering of adatoms is well described by diffusion-aggregation models. In such models, the statistical properties of the aggregate arrays often reveal the molecular scale aggregation processes. We investigate the potential of these theories to reveal hitherto hidden facets of protein clustering by carrying out concomitant observations of lysozyme adsorption onto mica surfaces, using atomic force microscopy. and Monte Carlo simulations of cluster nucleation and growth. We find that lysozyme clusters diffuse across the substrate at a rate that varies inversely with size. This result suggests which molecular scale mechanisms are responsible for the mobility of the proteins on the substrate. In addition the surface diffusion coefficient of the monomer can also be extracted from the comparison between experiments and simulations. While concentrating on a model system of lysozyme-on-mica, this 'proof of concept' study successfully demonstrates the potential of our approach to understand and influence more biomedically applicable protein-substrate couples.

Modelling the growth and movement of cyanobacteria in river systems

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. In this article, a new deterministic model is introduced which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the four major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in freshwaters: light, nutrients, temperature and river flow. The model consists of two sub-models: a vertical migration model with respect to growth of cyanobacteria in relation to light, nutrients and temperature; and a hydraulic model to simulate the horizontal movement of the bloom. This article presents the model algorithms and highlights some important model results. The effects of nutrient limitation, varying illumination and river flow characteristics on cyanobacterial movement are simulated. The results indicate that under high light intensities and in nutrient-rich waters colonies sink further as a result of carbohydrate accumulation in the cells. In turbulent environments, vertical migration is retarded by vertical velocity component generated by turbulent shear stress. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A review and classification of the existing models of cyanobacteria

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting bloom occurrence in lakes and rivers. In this paper existing key models of cyanobacteria are reviewed, evaluated and classified. Two major groups emerge: deterministic mathematical and artificial neural network models. Mathematical models can be further subcategorized into those models concerned with impounded water bodies and those concerned with rivers. Most existing models focus on a single aspect such as the growth of transport mechanisms, but there are a few models which couple both.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models.

A comparative evaluation of functions for partitioning nitrogen and amino acid intake between maintenance and growth in broilers

The results from three types of study with broilers, namely nitrogen (N) balance, bioassays and growth experiments, provided the data used herein. Sets of data on N balance and protein accretion (bioassay studies) were used to assess the ability of the monomolecular equation to describe the relationship between (i) N balance and amino acid (AA) intake and (ii) protein accretion and AA intake. The model estimated the levels of isoleucine, lysine, valine, threonine, methionine, total sulphur AAs and tryptophan resulting in zero balance to be 58, 59, 80, 96, 23, 85 and 32 mg/kg live weight (LW)/day, respectively. These estimates show good agreement with those obtained in previous studies. For the growth experiments, four models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine crude protein (CP) intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain. They were: a straight line, two equations representing diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and one equation describing smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflexion (Gompertz). The estimates of CP requirement for maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain varied from 5.4 to 5.9 g/kg LW/day and 0.60 to 0.76, respectively, depending on the models.