Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

L'Oreal acquisition policy: The Body Shop case study

The Work Project I present focuses on the analysis of L’Oréal acquisition policy, trying to outline if the M&A deals it has led over the last 14 years have succeeded in creating value. By replicating the model proposed by Todd Hazelkorn, Marc Zenner and Anil Shivdasani in their paper “Creating Value with Mergers and Acquisitions”, I analyzed the 29 M&A deals that L’Oréal has led worldwide, understanding the common factors able to explain the success of such transactions. Further, I focused on The Body Shop case study, a highly criticized and controversial acquisition that has proved to be profitable and able to create value.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

COMTEMP: Financing expansion through private equity?

COMTEMP – Companhia de Temperos, Lda. is a Portuguese company that produces vinegars (e.g. CRISTAL vinegars), sauces and condiments. This case study aims to analyze its attractiveness to receive a venture capital investment. The main covered topics are arranged into the following sections: foundation, company, industry, competition, industrial kitchen opportunity, financial strategy and decision.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

Financing exponential growth at H3

H3 is a fast-food chain that introduced the concept of gourmet hamburgers in the Portuguese market. This case-study illustrates its financing strategy that supported an exponential growth represented by opening 33 restaurants within approximately 3 years of its inception. H3 is now faced with the challenge of structuring its foreign ventures and change its financial approach. The main covered topics are the options an entrepreneur has for financing a new venture and how it evolves along the life cycle and different business approaches, namely franchising. It aims to be used as a learning tool in courses such as entrepreneurial finance.

Implementation progress of mental health services in Rwanda: Bugesera district case

RESUMO: O Ministério da Saúde do Governo do Ruanda identifica a saúde mental como uma área de prioridade estratégica para a intervenção em resposta à alta carga dos transtornos mentais no Ruanda. Ao longo dos últimos 20 anos após o genocídio, o sector público reconstruiu sua Resposta Nacional de Saúde Mental com base no acesso equitativo aos cuidados, através do desenvolvimento de uma Política Nacional de Saúde Mental e novas estruturas de saúde mental. A política de Saúde Mental do Ruanda, revista em 2010, prima pela descentralização e integração dos serviços de saúde mental em todas as estruturas nacionais do sistema de saúde e ao nível da comunidade. O presente estudo de caso tem como objetivo avaliar a situação do sistema de saúde mental de um distrito típico de uma área rural no Ruanda, e sugerir melhorias, incluindo algumas estratégias para monitoras as mudanças. Os resultados do estudo permitirão ao Ruanda reforçar a sua capacidade para implementar o Plano Nacional de Saúde Mental ao nível dos distritos. O relatório também será útil para monitorar o progresso da implementação de serviços de saúde mental nos distritos, incluindo a prestação de serviços de base comunitária e a participação dos usuários, suas famílias e outros interessados na promoção, prevenção, assistência e reabilitação em saúde mental. Este estudo também procurou avaliar o progresso da implementação dos cuidados de saúde mental a nível descentralizado, com vista a compreender as implicações em termos de recursos desses processos. Foi realizada uma análise situacional num local do distrito, baseado em entrevistas com as principais partes interessadas responsáveis, usando o Instrumento de Avaliação de Sistemas de Saúde Mental da Organização Mundial da Saúde (WHO-AIMS). Os resultados sugerem que os recursos humanos para a saúde mental e serviços de base comunitária de saúde mental no distrito continuam a ser extremamente limitados. Os profissionais de saúde mental são adicionalmente limitados na sua capacidade para oferecer intervenções de emergência a pacientes psiquiátricos e garantir a continuidade do tratamento farmacológico a pacientes com condições crônicas. Para planejar efetivamente, de acordo com as necessidades da comunidade, sugerimos que o sistema de saúde mental deve envolver também os representantes das famílias e dos usuários no processo de planificação de modo a melhorar a sua contribuição no processo de implementação das atividades de saúde mental. Este estudo de caso do Distrito de Bugesera oferece a primeira análise de nível distrital dos serviços de saúde mental no Ruanda, e pode servir como uma mais-valia para a melhoria do sistema de saúde mental, incluindo a advocacia para a melhoria da qualidade dos cuidados de saúde mental a este nível, aumentando o financiamento para a implementação de serviços clínicos de saúde mental e os recursos humanos disponíveis para a prestação de cuidados de saúde mental, principalmente a nível dos cuidados primários.--------------------- ABSTRACT: To deal with the high burden of mental health disorders resulting from consequences of the 1994 genocide against Tutsis, the Rwanda Ministry of Health (MoH) considers mental health as a priority intervention. For the last 20 years, Ministry of Health focused on rebuilding a national and equity-oriented mental health program responding to the population needs in mental health. Mental health services are now decentralized and integrated in the national health system, from the community level up to the referral level. This study assessed the situation of mental health services in one rural district in Rwanda. It was aimed at assessing the progress of implementation of mental health care at the decentralized level, focusing on resource implications and processes. This study is based on interviews conducted with key stakeholders, using the World Health Organization's Assessment Instrument for Mental Health Systems (WHO-AIMS). Findings show that human resources for mental health care and community-based mental health services of the assessed district remain extremely limited. Mental health professionals face limitation regarding the ability to provide emergency management of psychiatric patients and to ensure continuity of psychopharmacological treatment of patients with chronic conditions. To improve the implementation process of mental health interventions and activities, a planning process based on community needs and the involvement of representatives of families and users in planning process should be considered. The Bugesera case study on the situation of mental health services can serve as a baseline for improvement of the mental health program in Rwanda, in terms of quality care services, infrastructure and equipment, human and financial resources.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.

Critical analysis of the allocation policy for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver transplantation is now the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Given the shortage of liver donors and the progressively higher number of patients waiting for transplantation, improvements in patient selection and optimization of timing for transplantation are needed. Several solutions have been suggested, including increasing the donor pool; a fair policy for allocation, not permitting variables such as age, gender, and race, or third-party payer status to play any role; and knowledge of the natural history of each liver disease for which transplantation is offered. To observe ethical rules and distributive justice (guarantee to every citizen the same opportunity to get an organ), the "sickest first" policy must be used. Studies have demonstrated that death has no relationship with waiting time, but rather with the severity of liver disease at the time of inclusion. Thus, waiting time is no longer part of the United Network for Organ Sharing distribution criteria. Waiting time only differentiates between equally severely diseased patients. The authors have analyzed the waiting list mortality and 1-year survival for patients of the State of São Paulo, from July 1997 through January 2001. Only the chronological criterion was used. According to "Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo" data, among all waiting list deaths, 82.2% occurred within the first year, and 37.6% within the first 3 months following inclusion. The allocation of livers based on waiting time is neither fair nor ethical, impairs distributive justice and human rights, and does not occur in any other part of the world.