Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Effect of CO2 and 1-octen-3-ol attractants for estimating species richness and the abundance of diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest, Brazil

Studies have shown that both carbon dioxide (CO2) and octenol (1-octen-3-ol) are effective attractants for mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the attractiveness of 1-octen-3-ol and CO2 for diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest. A Latin square experimental design was employed with four treatments: CDC-light trap (CDC-LT), CDC-LT and 1-octen-3-ol, CDC-LT and CO2 and CDC-LT with 1-octen-3-ol and CO2. Results demonstrated that both CDC-CO2 and CDC-CO2-1-octen-3-ol captured a greater number of mosquito species and specimens compared to CDC-1-octen-3-ol; CDC-LT was used as the control. Interestingly, Anopheles (Kerteszia) sp. was generally attracted to 1-octen-3-ol, whereas Aedes serratus was the most abundant species in all Latin square collections. This species was recently shown to be competent to transmit the yellow fever virus and may therefore play a role as a disease vector in rural areas of Brazil.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

[Fred] Faller gagnant du marathon [championnats d'athlétisme de l'armée américaine à Colombes, 1er juin 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54203

4-7-19, stade Pershing, marathon [modifié des Jeux interalliés, Jean Vermeulen devant Fred Faller] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54714

4-7-19, stade Pershing, départ du marathon [modifié des Jeux interalliés, en tête n°1103 Auguste Broos et n°973 Carlo Speroni suivi par Fred Faller, puis n°846 Clyde Stout, à sa droite Jean Vermeulen, n°730 J. H. Massey, n°1189 Thomas Sinton Hewitt, n°971 Armando Pagliani, n°1280 Alphonse Van Hoey, n°972 Antenore Negri, n°1274 Jules Holsbeeke] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54713

Forest fires cluster detection with space-time scan statistics

Forest fires are defined as uncontrolled fires often occurring in wildland areas, but that can also affect houses or agricultural resources. Causes are both natural (e.g.,lightning phenomena) and anthropogenic (human negligence or arsons).Major environmental factors influencing the fire ignition and propagation are climate and vegetation. Wildfires are most common and severe during drought period and on windy days. Moreover, under water-stress conditions, which occur after a long hot and dry period, the vegetation is more vulnerable to fire. These conditions are common in the United State and Canada, where forest fires represent a big problem. We focused our analysis on the state of Florida, for which a big dataset on forest fires detection is readily available. USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Application Center, in collaboration with NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, has compiled daily MODIS Thermal Anomalies (fires and biomass burning images) produced by NASA using a contextual algorithm that exploits the strong emission of mid-infrared radiation from fires. Fire classes were converted in GIS format: daily MODIS fire detections are provided as the centroids of the 1 kilometer pixels and compiled into daily Arc/INFO point coverage.

High occurrence of Calodium hepaticum (syn. Capillaria hepatica) spurious infection in a village in the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil

Calodium hepaticum (syn. Capillaria hepatica) is a nematode of the Capillariidae family that infects rodents and other mammals. In Brazil, human spurious infections of C. hepaticum have been detected in indigenous or rural communities from the Amazon Basin, but not in the southern states of the country. Here, we report the highest occurrence (13.5% of 37 residents) of C. hepaticum human spurious infection detected in Brazil and the first record in a southern region, Guaraqueçaba. The finding is explained by the area being located in the Atlantic Forest of the state of Paraná, surrounded by preserved forests and because the inhabitants consume the meat of wild mammals.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

Malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, an Atlantic Forest area: an assessment using the health surveillance service

The lethality of malaria in the extra-Amazonian region is more than 70 times higher than in Amazonia itself. Recently, several studies have shown that autochthonous malaria is not a rare event in the Brazilian southeastern states in the Atlantic Forest biome. Information about autochthonous malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) is scarce. This study aims to assess malaria cases reported to the Health Surveillance System of the State of Rio de Janeiro between 2000-2010. An average of 90 cases per year had parasitological malaria confirmation by thick smear. The number of malaria notifications due to Plasmodium falciparum increased over time. Imported cases reported during the period studied were spread among 51% of the municipalities (counties) of the state. Only 35 cases (4.3%) were autochthonous, which represents an average of 3.8 new cases per year. Eleven municipalities reported autochthonous cases; within these, six could be characterised as areas of residual or new foci of malaria from the Atlantic Forest system. The other 28 municipalities could become receptive for transmission reintroduction. Cases occurred during all periods of the year, but 62.9% of cases were in the first semester of each year. Assessing vulnerability and receptivity conditions and vector ecology is imperative to establish the real risk of malaria reintroduction in RJ.

Plasmodium simium/Plasmodium vivax infections in southern brown howler monkeys from the Atlantic Forest

Blood infection by the simian parasite, Plasmodium simium, was identified in captive (n = 45, 4.4%) and in wild Alouatta clamitans monkeys (n = 20, 35%) from the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. A single malaria infection was symptomatic and the monkey presented clinical and haematological alterations. A high frequency of Plasmodium vivax-specific antibodies was detected among these monkeys, with 87% of the monkeys testing positive against P. vivax antigens. These findings highlight the possibility of malaria as a zoonosis in the remaining Atlantic Forest and its impact on the epidemiology of the disease.

Effectiveness of Mosquito Magnet® trap in rural areas in the southeastern tropical Atlantic Forest

Traps are widely employed for sampling and monitoring mosquito populations for surveillance, ecological and fauna studies. Considering the importance of assessing other technologies for sampling mosquitoes, we addressed the effectiveness of Mosquito Magnet® Independence (MMI) in comparison with those of the CDC trap with CO2 and Lurex3® (CDC-A) and the CDC light trap (CDC-LT). Field collections were performed in a rural area within the Atlantic Forest biome, southeastern state of São Paulo, Brazil. The MMI sampled 53.84% of the total number of mosquitoes, the CDC-A (26.43%) and CDC-LT (19.73%). Results of the Pearson chi-squared test (χ2) showed a positive association between CDC-LT and species of Culicini and Uranotaeniini tribes. Additionally, our results suggested a positive association between CDC-A and representatives of the Culicini and Aedini tribes, whereas the MMI was positively associated with the Mansoniini and Sabethini as well as with Anophelinae species. The MMI sampled a greater proportion (78.27%) of individuals of Anopheles than either the CDC-LT (0.82%) or the CDC-A traps (20.91%). Results of the present study showed that MMI performed better than CDC-LT or CDC-A in sampling mosquitoes in large numbers, medically important species and assessing diversity parameters in rural southeastern Atlantic Forest.

Fosfomycin versus meropenem in bacteraemic urinary tract infections caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (FOREST): study protocol for an investigator-driven randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION Finding therapeutic alternatives to carbapenems in infections caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is imperative. Although fosfomycin was discovered more than 40 years ago, it was not investigated in accordance with current standards and so is not used in clinical practice except in desperate situations. It is one of the so-called neglected antibiotics of high potential interest for the future. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The main objective of this project is to demonstrate the clinical non-inferiority of intravenous fosfomycin with regard to meropenem for treating bacteraemic urinary tract infections (UTI) caused by ESBL-EC. This is a 'real practice' multicentre, open-label, phase III randomised controlled trial, designed to compare the clinical and microbiological efficacy, and safety of intravenous fosfomycin (4 g/6 h) and meropenem (1 g/8 h) as targeted therapy for this infection; a change to oral therapy is permitted after 5 days in both arms, in accordance with predetermined options. The study design follows the latest recommendations for designing trials investigating new options for multidrug-resistant bacteria. Secondary objectives include the study of fosfomycin concentrations in plasma and the impact of both drugs on intestinal colonisation by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacilli. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval was obtained from the Andalusian Coordinating Institutional Review Board (IRB) for Biomedical Research (Referral Ethics Committee), which obtained approval from the local ethics committees at all participating sites in Spain (22 sites). Data will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. DISCUSSION This project is proposed as an initial step in the investigation of an orphan antimicrobial of low cost with high potential as a therapeutic alternative in common infections such as UTI in selected patients. These results may have a major impact on the use of antibiotics and the development of new projects with this drug, whether as monotherapy or combination therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02142751. EudraCT no: 2013-002922-21. Protocol V.1.1 dated 14 March 2014.