Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Exchange students in Brazil: some factors behind its choice - empirical evidences from a Brazilian school

O Brasil sempre foi um lugar conveniente para se visitar em termos de cultura, diversão e entretenimento. No entanto, este estudo visa o lado educacional do país, particularmente, os estudantes estrangeiros que escolhem o Brasil para programas de intercâmbio. Fins e razões por trás das escolhas dos estudantes foram identificados através de pesquisas quantitativas e qualitativas, juntamente com a revisão da literatura já existente. A pesquisa primária foi feita por meio de entrevistas com estudantes de intercâmbio já no Brasil. Os dados coletados foram analisados e são apresentados de forma estatística, juntamente com a representação gráfica. O seguinte estudo apontou que os denominados “turistas” e, assim chamados, “money seekers”, serem os principais fatores por trás da escolha de estudantes. A pesquisa também mostra que os alunos mais satisfeitos foram os que escolheram o Brasil por causa da qualidade da universidade sede, assim como para explorar as perspectivas de emprego, juntamente com iniciar uma carreira no Brasil.

Temporal causality between the exchange rate and the trade balance : the case of Brazil

The paper assesses the impact of intemational relative prices and domestic expenditure variables on Brazil' s foreign trade performance in the first half of the 1990s. It has been argued that the appreciation of the Real since 1994 has had a detrimental impact of the country's trade balance. However, using temporal precedence analysis, our results do not indicate that the trade balance is strongly affected by intemational rei ative prices, such as the exchange rate. Instead, domestic expenditure variables appear to be more powerful determinant of the country' s trade performance in recent years. Granger and error correction causality techniques are used to determine temporal precedence between the trade balance and the exchange rate in the period under examination. Our findings shed light on the debate over the sustainability of recent exchange rate-anchored macroeconomic stabilisation programmes, which is a topic that has encouraged a lot of debate among academics and practitioners.

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance

The Rest will be able to catch up and grow faster than the West only if it goes against a “received truth”, namely that capital-rich countries should transfer their capital to capital-poor countries. This intuitive truth is the mantra that the West cites to justify its occupation of the markets of developing countries with its finance and its multinationals. Classical Developmentalism successfully criticized the unequal exchange involved in trade liberalization, but it didn’t succeed in criticizing foreign finance. This task has been recently achieved by New Developmentalism and its developmental macroeconomics, which shows that countries will invest and grow more if they don’t run current account deficits, even when these deficits are financed by foreign direct investment

Foreign support, internal political disputes and mass killings

This paper studies the incentives underlying the relations between foreign countries and rival domestic groups. It models the interaction in a infinitely-repeated game between these three players. The domestic groups bargain for a split of the domestic surplus and may engage in violent dispute for power and in unilateral mass killing processes. The foreign country may choose to support one of these groups in exchange for monetary transfers. The paper characterizes the parametric set in which strategies leading to no violent disputes nor mass killings are Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibra in the presence of foreign support, but not in its absence.

Foreign investment in Mexico after economic reform

Includes bibliography

Equity, foreign investment and international competitiveness

Includes bibliography

Modernization of Customs and Implementation of Single Window Systems for Foreign Trade: Results of an International Seminar-Workshop

An international seminar-workshop entitled "Facilitation of trade and transport in Latin America: situation and outlook" was held at the headquarters of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 29 and 30 November 2005, organized jointly by the ECLAC Division of International Trade and Integration and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The event was attended by about 50 persons involved in customs modernization and/or the implementation of single window systems for foreign trade in 20 Ibero-American countries.The main purpose of the seminar-workshop was to exchange ideas, opinions and proposals concerning the efficient implementation of trade facilitation instruments. The conclusions reached at this event point to the need to seek convergence among the existing trade agreements associated with trade facilitation in Latin America. Customs modernization requires the re-design of processes and procedures in order to achieve interoperability among the systems, and single window systems for foreign trade can only be implemented successfully if clear political leadership is established with broad participation from both public and private organizations.

A universidade no contexto internacional: o relações públicas como mediador intercultural no projeto Brasil de Todo Mundo

The following dissertation aims to propose an institutional and intercultural projecy of reception and integration of foreign students from academic mobility programs for the campus unit of Bauru. Such action is necessary because of the absence of a reception program of these students, the reception and integration into the social and cultural reality of the place in which they live is a fundamental part of international experience. As an example for this institutional proposal, we discuss the extension of project experience Brasil de Todo Mundo, which aims to deepen the reflections on the Brazilian cultural universe for foreign students who are in Brazil over a period, while taking academic mobility in the Universidade Estadual Paulista, Bauru campus. Student leadership project, Brasil de Todo Mundo emerged from the international experience in mobility programs offered by UNESP, from students of campus Bauru, when in the back of their experiences, they realized that they could continue being tourists your own country with the reception of foreign students. In addition, the identification of expectations in social and intercultural skills, in addition to reasons connected with the increase academic and language skills are a form of very strong approach, which helps in creating intercultural dialogue spaces between the students, the main objective of the project

Aspectos culturais como fios condutores de interações em Tandem na aprendizagem de português língua estrangeira: interculturalidade, estereótipos e identidade(s)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Student Leader LMX Relationships as Moderated by Constructive-Developmental Theory

This study examined how the quality of Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) relationships was moderated by the Constructive-Developmental stage or Order of Consciousness of both leader and follower. Using student organization presidents and officers on a small, private, liberal arts college campus in the Midwest, the researcher used a sample of 37 students to study the impact developmental stage had on the leadership relationship. Using the Leader Member Exchange-Multi-Dimensional Measure (LMX-MDM), four dimensions of LMX were examined. The four dimensions were Affect, Contribution, Loyalty and Professional Respect. There was no significant relationship between Order of Consciousness and quality of LMX relationship. While there was no significant difference in LMX relationship based on gender of participants, there was a significant difference between how male presidents and officers perceived their relationship in the Loyalty dimension. Directions for further research and implications for practice were discussed.

Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.