Is financial instability male-driven? Gender and cognitive skills in experimental asset markets

The hypothesis that price stability would reliably increase with the fraction of women operating in financial markets has been frequently suggested in policy discussions. To test this hypothesis we conducted 10 male-only, 10 female-only and 10 mixed-gender experimental asset markets, and compared the effects of gender composition, confidence, risk attitude and cognitive skills. Male and female markets have comparable volatility and deviations from fundamentals, whereas mixed-gender markets are substantially more stable. On the other hand, higher average cognitive skills of the group are associated with reduced market volatility. Individual-level analysis shows that subjects with higher cognitive skills trade at prices closer to fundamental values and earn significantly higher profits; similarly, mixed markets exhibit lower mispricing, particularly for traders with lower cognitive skills. Our results are demonstrated to hold in other experimental asset market studies, suggesting that a mixed-gender composition reduces mispricing across different types of asset markets.

Financial Characteristics of Family Businesses and Financial Aspects of Succession

Family businesses are special in many respects. By examining their financial characteristics one can come to unique conclusions/results. This paper explores the general characteristics of the financial behaviour of family businesses, presents the main findings of the INSIST project’s company case studies concerning financing issues and strategies, and intends to identify the financial characteristics of company succession. The whole existence of family businesses is characterized by a duality of the family and business dimensions and this remains the case in their financial affairs. The financial decisions in family businesses (especially SMEs) are affected by aspects involving a duality of goals rather than exclusively profitability, the simultaneous presence of family and business financial needs, and the preferential handling of family needs at the expense of business needs (although it has to be said that there is evidence of family investments being postponed for the sake of business, too. Family businesses, beyond their actual effectiveness, are guided by individual goals like securing living standards, ensuring workplaces for family members, stability of operation, preservation of the company’s good reputation, and keeping the company’s size at a level that the immediate family can control and manage. The INSIST project’s company case studies revealed some interesting traits of family business finances like the importance of financial support from the founder’s family during the establishment of the company, the use of bootstrapping techniques, the financial characteristics of succession, and the role of family members in financial management.

Undermined climate policies : a study on the impact of regulatory and financial discrimination across heterogeneous firms in China

Firms in China within the same industry but with different ownership and size have very different production functions and can face very different emission regulations and financial conditions. This fact has largely been ignored in most of the existing literature on climate change. Using a newly augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm size and ownership are explicitly reported, this paper employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of alternative climate policy designs with respect to regulation and financial conditions on heterogeneous firms. The simulation results indicate that with a business-as-usual regulatory structure, the effectiveness and economic efficiency of climate policies is significantly undermined. Expanding regulation to cover additional firms has a first-order effect of improving efficiency. However, over-investment in energy technologies in certain firms may decrease the overall efficiency of investments and dampen long-term economic growth by competing with other fixed-capital investments for financial resources. Therefore, a market-oriented arrangement for sharing emission reduction burden and a mechanism for allocating green investment is crucial for China to achieve a more ambitious emission target in the long run.

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.

The Selection Process of Applications to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System: Who Gets Financial Support?

Public policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation play a vital role when firms have difficulties in accessing external finance. However, some authors have found evidence of long-term inefficiency in subsidized firms (Bernini and Pelligrini, 2011; Cerqua and Pelligrini, 2014) and ineffectiveness of public funds (Jorge and Suárez, 2011). The aim of the paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process of applications to public financial support for stimulating innovation. Using a binary choice model, we investigate which factors influence the probability of obtaining public support for an innovative investment. The explanatory variables are connected to firm profile, the characteristics of the project and the macroeconomic environment. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation.Incentive System (PIIS) and on the applications managed by the Alentejo Regional Operational Program in the period 2007 – 2013. The results show that the selection process is more focused on the expected impact of the project than on the firm’s past performance. Factors that influence the credit risk and the decision to grant a bank loan do not seem to influence the government evaluator regarding the funding of some projects. Past activities in R&D do not significantly affect the probability of having an application approved under the PIIS, whereas an increase in the number of patents and the number of skilled jobs are both relevant factors. Nevertheless, some evidence of firms’ short-term inefficiency was found, in that receiving public financial support is linked to a smaller increase in productivity compared to non-approved firm applications. At the macroeconomic level, periods with a higher cost of capital in financial markets are linked to a greater probability of getting an application for public support approved, which could be associated with the effectiveness of public support in correcting market failings.

Essays in Financial Econometrics

The first paper sheds light on the informational content of high frequency data and daily data. I assess the economic value of the two family models comparing their performance in forecasting asset volatility through the Value at Risk metric. In running the comparison this paper introduces two key assumptions: jumps in prices and leverage effect in volatility dynamics. Findings suggest that high frequency data models do not exhibit a superior performance over daily data models. In the second paper, building on Majewski et al. (2015), I propose an affine-discrete time model, labeled VARG-J, which is characterized by a multifactor volatility specification. In the VARG-J model volatility experiences periods of extreme movements through a jump factor modeled as an Autoregressive Gamma Zero process. The estimation under historical measure is done by quasi-maximum likelihood and the Extended Kalman Filter. This strategy allows to filter out both volatility factors introducing a measurement equation that relates the Realized Volatility to latent volatility. The risk premia parameters are calibrated using call options written on S&P500 Index. The results clearly illustrate the important contribution of the jump factor in the pricing performance of options and the economic significance of the volatility jump risk premia. In the third paper, I analyze whether there is empirical evidence of contagion at the bank level, measuring the direction and the size of contagion transmission between European markets. In order to understand and quantify the contagion transmission on banking market, I estimate the econometric model by Aït-Sahalia et al. (2015) in which contagion is defined as the within and between countries transmission of shocks and asset returns are directly modeled as a Hawkes jump diffusion process. The empirical analysis indicates that there is a clear evidence of contagion from Greece to European countries as well as self-contagion in all countries.

The Burden Of Eclampsia: Results From A Multicenter Study On Surveillance Of Severe Maternal Morbidity In Brazil.

Maternal mortality (MM) is a core indicator of disparities in women's rights. The study of Near Miss cases is strategic to identifying the breakdowns in obstetrical care. In absolute numbers, both MM and occurrence of eclampsia are rare events. We aim to assess the obstetric care indicators and main predictors for severe maternal outcome from eclampsia (SMO: maternal death plus maternal near miss). Secondary analysis of a multicenter, cross-sectional study, including 27 centers from all geographic regions of Brazil, from 2009 to 2010. 426 cases of eclampsia were identified and classified according to the outcomes: SMO and non-SMO. We classified facilities as coming from low- and high-income regions and calculated the WHO's obstetric health indicators. SPSS and Stata softwares were used to calculate the prevalence ratios (PR) and respective 95% confidence interval (CI) to assess maternal characteristics, clinical and obstetrical history, and access to health services as predictors for SMO, subsequently correlating them with the corresponding perinatal outcomes, also applying multiple regression analysis (adjusted for cluster effect). Prevalence of and mortality indexes for eclampsia in higher and lower income regions were 0.2%/0.8% and 8.1%/22%, respectively. Difficulties in access to health care showed that ICU admission (adjPR 3.61; 95% CI 1.77-7.35) and inadequate monitoring (adjPR 2.31; 95% CI 1.48-3.59) were associated with SMO. Morbidity and mortality associated with eclampsia were high in Brazil, especially in lower income regions. Promoting quality maternal health care and improving the availability of obstetric emergency care are essential actions to relieve the burden of eclampsia.

Delays In Receiving Obstetric Care And Poor Maternal Outcomes: Results From A National Multicentre Cross-sectional Study.

The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival.

[why Does The Prevalence Of Cytopathological Results Of Cervical Cancer Screening Can Vary Significantly Between Two Regions Of Brazil?].

To analyze the prevalence of cervical cytopathological results for the screening of cervical cancer with regard to women's age and time since the last examination in Maceió and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, among those assisted by the Brazilian Unified Health System. Cervical cytopathological results available in the Information System of Cervical Cancer Screening for the year 2011 were analyzed, corresponding to 206,550 for Rio de Janeiro and 45,243 for Maceió. In Rio de Janeiro, examination at one and two year intervals predominated, while in Maceió examination at one and three year intervals had a higher predominance. Women who underwent cervical smear screening in Maceió were older than those in Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence of invasive squamous cell carcinoma was similar for the two cities, but all the other results presented a higher prevalence in Rio de Janeiro: ASCUS (PR=5.32; 95%CI 4.66-6.07); ASCH (PR=4.27; 95%CI 3.15-5.78); atypical glandular cells (PR=10.02; 95%CI 5.66-17.76); low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=6.10; 95%CI 5.27-7.07); high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=8.90; 95%CI 6.50-12.18) and adenocarcinoma (PR=3.00; 95%CI 1.21-7.44). The rate of unsatisfactory cervical samples was two times higher in Maceió and that of rejected samples for analysis was five times higher in Maceió when compared to Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence rates of altered cervical cytopathological results was significantly higher in Rio de Janeiro than in Maceió. There is no objective information that may justify this difference. One hypothesis is that there may be a difference in the diagnostic performance of the cervical cancer screening, which could be related to the quality of the Pap smear. Thus, these findings suggest that it would be necessary to perform this evaluation at national level, with emphasis on the performance of cervical cancer screening in order to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control.

Basilar Invagination: Surgical Results.

Basilar invagination (BI) is a congenital craniocervical junction (CCJ) anomaly represented by a prolapsed spine into the skull-base that can result in severe neurological impairment. In this paper, we retrospective evaluate the surgical treatment of 26 patients surgically treated for symptomatic BI. BI was classified according to instability and neural abnormalities findings. Clinical outcome was evaluated using the Nürick grade system. A total of 26 patients were included in this paper. Their age ranged from 15 to 67 years old (mean 38). Of which, 10 patients were male (38%) and 16 (62%) were female. All patients had some degree of tonsillar herniation, with 25 patients treated with foramen magnum decompression. Nine patients required a craniocervical fixation. Six patients had undergone prior surgery and required a new surgical procedure for progression of neurological symptoms associated with new compression or instability. Most of patients with neurological symptoms secondary to brainstem compression had some improvement during the follow-up. There was mortality in this series, 1 month after surgery, associated with a late removal of the tracheal cannula. Management of BI requires can provide improvements in neurological outcomes, but requires analysis of the neural and bony anatomy of the CCJ, as well as occult instability. The complexity and heterogeneous presentation requires attention to occult instability on examination and attention to airway problems secondary to concomitant facial malformations.

Long-term Results Of Anderson-hynes Pyeloplasty In Children: How Long Follow-up Is Necessary?

Purpose After a successful pyeloplasty at 3 to 6 months, the question remains whether children need a long follow-up. Methods The medical charts of patients with long-term follow-up (> 5 years), who underwent dismembered pyeloplasty for uretero-pelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) from May 1998 to May 2007, excluding those with bilateral UPJO, solitary kidney, associated vesicoureteral reflux or other abnormalities, and inconclusive renogram due to poor renal function, were retrospectively reviewed. Ultrasonography, differential renal function (DRF, DMSA), and renal drainage on diuretic renography (diethylene-triamine-pentaacetate technetium-99 or DTPA-Tc99) were performed at 3 and 6 months every year. Results Complete data were available for 28 consecutive patients (28 renal unities) with 2 months to 12 years (mean age, 2.4 years) at surgery, of whom 21 (75%) were boys, 17 diagnosed prenatally (61%) and 18 unities (64.3%) were left, with median follow-up of 10.7 years. Images were graded according to the Society for Fetal Urology grading system: Grade III in 11 (49%) and grade IV in 17 (61%). All cases presented > 10% DRF (DMSA) and obstructed DTPA-Tc99. The T1/2 (the half-time of drainage) less than 20 minutes at 3 months was found in 21 cases (75%) and less than 25 minutes in 7 cases (25%). Renal function and patency were maintained during follow-up for all units with 8% maximum fluctuation of DRF. One index case (3.6%) of renal function deterioration presented DRF fluctuation > 8% at 3 months (from 23 to 32%) and progressive hydronephrosis and indeterminate DTPA at 6 months. Conclusions Satisfactory diuretic renogram at 3 to 6 months after pyeloplasty with maintained renal function and stable hydronephrosis suggests no need for further follow-up and indicates no functional loss with time. More than 8% DRF fluctuation might be a significant cutoff for further intervention aiming nephron preservation.

Evaluation Of Soft-tissue Lesions With (18)f-fdg Pet/ct: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

Although MRI is utilized for planning the resection of soft-tissue tumors, it is not always capable of differentiating benign from malignant lesions. The risk of local recurrence of soft-tissue sarcomas is increased when biopsies are performed before resection and by inadequate resections. PET associated with computed tomography using fluorodeoxyglucose labeled with fluorine-18 ((18)F-FDG PET/CT) may help differentiate between benign and malignant tumors, thus avoiding inadequate resections and making prior biopsies unnecessary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of (18)F-FDG PET/CT in differentiating benign from malignant solid soft-tissue lesions. Patients with solid lesions of the limbs or abdominal wall detected by MRI were submitted to (18)F-FDG PET/CT. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) cutoff was determined to differentiate malignant from benign tumors. Regardless of the (18)F-FDG PET/CT results all patients underwent biopsy and surgery. MRI was performed in 54 patients, and 10 patients were excluded because of purely lipomatose or cystic lesions. (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in the remaining 44 patients. Histopathology revealed 26 (59%) benign and 18 (41%) malignant soft-tissue lesions. A significant difference in SUVmax was observed between benign and malignant soft-tissue lesions. The SUVmax cutoff of 3.0 differentiated malignant from benign lesions with 100% sensitivity, 83.3% specificity, 89.6% accuracy, 78.3% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. (18)F-FDG PET/CT seems to be able to differentiate benign from malignant soft-tissue lesions with good accuracy and very high negative predictive value. Incorporating (18)F-FDG PET/CT into the diagnostic algorithm of these patients may prevent inadequate resections and unnecessary biopsies.

Value Of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy In Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

The objectives of the study were to evaluate the performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in detecting occult metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and to correlate their presence to tumor and patient characteristics. Twenty-three clinically node-negative PTC patients (21 females, mean age 48.4 years) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were submitted to sentinel lymph node (SLN) lymphoscintigraphy prior to total thyroidectomy. Ultrasound-guided peritumoral injections of (99m)Tc-phytate (7.4 MBq) were performed. Cervical single-photon emission computed tomography and computed tomography (SPECT/CT) images were acquired 15 min after radiotracer injection and 2 h prior to surgery. Intra-operatively, SLNs were located with a gamma probe and removed along with non-SLNs located in the same neck compartment. Papillary thyroid carcinoma, SLNs and non-SLNs were submitted to histopathology analysis. Sentinel lymph nodes were located in levels: II in 34.7 % of patients; III in 26 %; IV in 30.4 %; V in 4.3 %; VI in 82.6 % and VII in 4.3 %. Metastases in the SLN were noted in seven patients (30.4 %), in non-SLN in three patients (13.1 %), and in the lateral compartments in 20 % of patients. There were significant associations between lymph node (LN) metastases and the presence of angio-lymphatic invasion (p = 0.04), extra-thyroid extension (p = 0.03) and tumor size (p = 0.003). No correlations were noted among LN metastases and patient age, gender, stimulated thyroglobulin levels, positive surgical margins, aggressive histology and multifocal lesions. Sentinel lymph node biopsy can detect occult metastases in PTC. The risk of a metastatic SLN was associated with extra-thyroid extension, larger tumors and angio-lymphatic invasion. This may help guide future neck dissection, patient surveillance and radioiodine therapy doses.

Long-term Efficacy And Safety Of Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate In Hiv-1-infected Adolescents Failing Antiretroviral Therapy: The Final Results Of Study Gs-us-104-0321.

Reports of long-term tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) treatment in HIV-infected adolescents are limited. We present final results from the open-label (OL) TDF extension following the randomized, placebo (PBO)-controlled, double-blind phase of GS-US-104-0321 (Study 321). HIV-infected 12- to 17-year-olds treated with TDF 300 mg or PBO with an optimized background regimen (OBR) for 24-48 weeks subsequently received OL TDF plus OBR in a single arm study extension. HIV-1 RNA and safety, including bone mineral density (BMD), was assessed in all TDF recipients. Eighty-one subjects received TDF (median duration 96 weeks). No subject died or discontinued OL TDF for safety/tolerability. At week 144, proportions with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL were 30.4% (7 of 23 subjects with baseline HIV-1 RNA >1000 c/mL initially randomized to TDF), 41.7% (5 of 12 subjects with HIV-1 RNA <1000 c/mL who switched PBO to TDF) and 0% (0 of 2 subjects failed randomized PBO plus OBR with HIV-1 RNA >1000 c/mL and switched PBO to TDF). Viral resistance to TDF occurred in 1 subject. At week 144, median decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate was 38.1 mL/min/1.73 m (n = 25). Increases in median spine (+12.70%, n = 26) and total body less head BMD (+4.32%, n = 26) and height-age adjusted Z-scores (n = 21; +0.457 for spine, +0.152 for total body less head) were observed at week 144. Five of 81 subjects (6%) had persistent >4% BMD decreases from baseline. Some subjects had virologic responses to TDF plus OBR, and TDF resistance was rare. TDF was well tolerated and can be considered for treatment of HIV-infected adolescents.