Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Human resource development for inclusive procurement by intermediation:a situated learning theory application

This paper fills an important gap in the human resource development (HRD) literature by considering the role that NGO intermediation initiatives can play in bringing together and developing corporate procurement officials (CPOs) and ethnic minority business owner-managers (EMBOs) supplying goods and services. It has been suggested that such initiatives hold great promise in helping ethnic minority businesses escape from their disadvantageous sectoral concentration in the UK. Using situated learning theory as an application lens, the main aim of this paper is to demonstrate how nurturing communities of practice of CPOs and EMBOs and facilitating their interaction can help their professional development and their approaches to procuring and supplying, respectively. The paper reports on the authors' experience with an action research programme encompassing two intermediation initiatives of this kind. The lessons drawn from this study are useful for all those concerned with HRD for inclusive procurement; intermediaries promoting inclusive procurement, large procurers who are willing to engage with supplier diversity and ethnic minority suppliers who wish to access corporate procurement systems and 'break-out'. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

An examination of moderator effects in the four-stage loyalty model

Oliver’s 1997 four-stage loyalty model proposes that loyalty consists of belief, affect, intention, and action. Although this loyalty model has recently been subject to empirical examination, the issue of moderator variables has been largely neglected. This article fills that void by analyzing the moderating effects of selected personal and situational characteristics, using a sample of 888 customers of a large do-it-yourself retailer. The results of multi-group causal analysis suggest that these moderators exert an influence on the development of the different stages of the loyalty sequence. Specifically, age, income, education and expertise, price orientation, critical incident recovery, and loyalty card membership are found to be important moderators of the links in the four-stage loyalty model. Limitations of the study are outlined, and implications for both research and managerial practice are discussed.

Switching barriers in the four-stage loyalty model

Oliver (1997) suggests a four-stage loyalty model proposing that loyalty consists of belief, affect, intentions, and action. Although this model has recently been subject to empirical examination, the issue of moderator variables has been largely neglected. This article fills that void by analyzing the moderating effects of switching barriers, using a sample of 589 customers of a large do-it-yourself (DIY) retailer. The results suggest that these moderators exert an influence on the development of the different stages of the loyalty sequence. Specifically, switching costs, social benefits, and attractiveness of alternatives are found to be important moderators of the links in the four-stage loyalty model.

Internet technologies, ECRM capabilities, and performance benefits for SMEs:An exploratory study

Research on large firms suggests that dedicated customer relationship management (CRM) software applications play a critical role in creating and sustaining customer relationships. CRM is also of strategic importance to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but most of them do not employ dedicated CRM software. Instead they use generic Internet-based technologies to manage customer relationships with electronic CRM (eCRM). There has been little research on the extent to which the use of generic Internet technologies contributes to SME performance. The present study fills the gap, building upon the literature on organizational capabilities, marketing, and SMEs to develop a research model with which to explore the relationships between generic Internet technologies, eCRM capabilities, and the resulting performance benefits in the SME context. A survey across 286 SMEs in Ireland finds strong empirical evidence in support of the hypotheses regarding these benefits. The study contributes to managerial decision making by showing how SMEs can use generic Internet technologies to advance their customer relationships and contributes to theory development by conceptualizing eCRM capabilities in an SME context.

Technology adoption in small and medium-sized logistics providers

Purpose - The main aim of the research is to shed light on the role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the logistics innovation process of small and medium-sized third party logistics providers (3PLs). Design/methodology/approach - A triangulated research strategy was designed using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The former involved the use of a questionnaire survey of small and medium-sized Italian 3PLs with 153 usable responses received. The latter comprised a series of focus groups and the use of seven case studies. Findings - There is a relatively low level of ICT expenditure with few companies adopting formal technology investment strategies. The findings highlight the strategic importance of supply chain integration for 3PLs with companies that have embarked on an expansion of their service portfolios showing a higher level of both ICT usage and information integration. Lack of technology skills in the workforce is a major constraint on ICT adoption. Given the proliferation of logistics-related ICT tools and applications in recent years it has been difficult for small and medium-sized 3PLs to select appropriate applications. Research limitations/implications - The paper provides practical guidelines to researchers in the effective use of mixed-methods research based on the concept of methodological triangulation. In particular, it shows how questionnaire surveys, focus groups and case study analysis can be used in combination to provide insights into multi-faceted supply chain phenomena. It also identifies several potentially fruitful avenues for future research in this specific field. Practical implications - The paper's findings provide useful guidance for practitioners on the effective adoption of ICT as part of the logistics innovation process. The findings also provide support for ICT vendors in the design of ICT solutions that are aligned to the needs of small 3PLs. Originality/value - There is currently a paucity of research into the drivers and inhibitors of ICT in the innovation processes of small and medium-sized 3PLs. This paper fills this gap by exploring the issue using a range of complementary research approaches. Copyright © 2013 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.

Bureaucratic reform in post-Asian crisis Indonesia:the Directorate General of Tax

Our research examines a key aspect of the extensive bureaucratic reform program that was applied to the Indonesian public sector following the Asian Economic crisis. The organisation we focus on is the Indonesian Directorate of Tax. The reforms moved the case organisation towards more bureaucratic organisational arrangements. The most notable elements of the reforms related to the organisational efficiency and changes in administrative style and culture. An ethnographic approach was adopted, in which the researcher was immersed in the life of the selected case organisation over an extended period of time. This research extends a thin literature on the topic of management control and culture in the Indonesian context. Also, this paper fills a gap in the theoretic approaches for studying bureaucracy, which is dominated by western conceptualisations. This paper provides a reminder to policy makers (including organisation such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) of the consequences of neglecting cultural influences when conducting bureaucratic reform.

Uneasy lies the head that bears the trust:the effects of feeling trusted on emotional exhaustion

The construct of feeling trusted reflects the perception that another party is willing to accept vulnerability to one's actions. Although this construct has received far less attention than trusting, the consensus is that believing their supervisors trust them has benefits for employees' job performance. Our study challenges that consensus by arguing that feeling trusted can be exhausting for employees. Drawing on Stevan Hobfoll's conservation of resources theory, we develop a model in which feeling trusted fills an employee with pride a benefit for exhaustion and performance while also increasing perceived workload and concerns about reputation maintenance burdens for exhaustion and performance. We test our model in a field study using a sample of public transit bus drivers in London, England. Our results suggest that feeling trusted is a double-edged sword for job performance, bringing with it both benefits and burdens. Given that recommendations for managers generally encourage placing trust in employees, these results have important practical implications.

The impact of external market factors on operational practices and performance of companies

The links between operational practices and performance are well studied in the literature, both theoretically and empirically. However, mostly internal factors are inspected more closely as the basis of operational performance, even if the impact of external, environmental factors is often emphasized. Our research fills a part of this existing gap in the literature. We examine how two environmental factors, market dynamism and competition impact the use of some operational practices (such as quality improvement, product development, automation, etc.) and the resulting operations and business performance. The method of path analysis is used. Data were acquired through an international survey (IMSS – International Manufacturing Strategy Survey), which was executed in 2005, in 23 participating countries in so called "innovative" industries (ISIC 28-35) with a sample of 711 firms. Results show that both market dynamism and competition have large impact on business performance, but the indirect effects, through operations practices are rather weak compared to direct ones. The most influential practices are from the area of process and control, and quality management.

Theory of foreign portfolio investment

This dissertation examines one category of international capital flows, private portfolio investments (private refers to the source of capital). There is an overall lack of a coherent and consistent definition of foreign portfolio investment. We clarify these definitional issues.^ Two main questions that pertain to private foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are explored. The first problem is the phenomenon of home preference, often referred to as home bias. Related to this are the observed cross-investment flows between countries that seem to contradict the textbook rendition of private FPI. A description of the theories purporting to resolve the home preference puzzle (and the cross-investment one) are summarized and evaluated. Most of this literature considers investors from major developed countries. I consider--as well--whether investors in less developed countries have home preference.^ The dissertation shows that home preference is indeed pervasive and profound across countries, in both developed and emerging markets. For the U.S., I examine home bias in both equity and bond holdings as well. I find that home bias is greater when we look at equity and bond holdings than equity holdings solely.^ In this dissertation a model is developed to explain home bias. This model is original and fills a gap in the literature as there have been no satisfactory models that handle at the same time both home preference and cross-border holdings in the context of information asymmetries. This model reflects what we see in the data and permits us to reach certain results by the use of comparative statics methods. The model suggests, counter-intuitively, that as the rate of return in a country relative to the world rate of return increases, home preference decreases. In the context of our relatively simple model we ascribe this result to the higher variance of the now higher return for home assets. We also find, this time as intended, that as risk aversion increases, investors diversify further so that home preference decreases.^ The second question that the dissertation deals with is the volatility of private foreign portfolio investment. Countries that are recipients of these flows have been wary of such flows because of their perceived volatility. Often the contrast is made with the perceived absence of volatility in foreign direct investment flows. I analyze the validity of these concerns using first net flow data and then gross flow data. The results show that FPI is not, in relative terms, more volatile than other flows in our sample of eight countries (half were developed countries and the rest were emerging markets).^ The implication therefore is that restricting FPI flows may be harmful in the sense that private capital may not be allocated efficiently worldwide to the detriment of capital poor economies. More to the point, any such restrictions would in fact be misguided. ^

Essays on the selection of securities: Decision on acquisition and issuance perspectives and decision rules

This dissertation is a discourse on the capital market and its interactive framework of acquisition and issuance of financial assets that drive the economy from both sides—investors/lenders and issuers/users of capital assets. My work consists of four essays in financial economics that offer a spectrum of revisions to this significant area of study. The first essay is a delineation of the capital market over the past half a century and major developments on capital markets on issues that pertain to the investor's opportunity set and the corporation's capital-raising availability set. This chapter should have merits on two counts: (i) a comprehensive account of capital markets and return-generating assets and (ii) a backdrop against which I present my findings in Chapters 2 through 4. ^ In Chapter 2, I rework on the Markowitz-Roy-Tobin structure of the efficient frontier and of the Separation Theorem. Starting off with a 2-asset portfolio and extending the paradigm to an n-asset portfolio, I bring out the optimal choice of assets for an investor under constrained utility maximization. In this chapter, I analyze the selection and revision-theoretic construct and bring out optimum choices. The effect of a change in perceived risk or return in the mind of an investor is ascertained on the portfolio composition. ^ Chapter 3 takes a look into corporations that issue market securities. The question of how a corporation decides what kinds of securities it should issue in the marketplace to raise funds brings out the classic value invariance proposition of Modigliani and Miller and fills the gap that existed in the literature for almost half a century. I question the general validity in the classic results of Modigliani and Miller and modify the existing literature on the celebrated value invariance proposition. ^ Chapter 4 takes the Modigliani-Miller regime to its correct prescription in the presence of corporate and personal taxes. I show that Modigliani-Miller's age-old proposition needs corrections and extensions, which I derive. ^ My dissertation overall brings all of these corrections and extensions to the existing literature as my findings, showing that capital markets are in an ever-changing state of necessary revision. ^

Methodology to create cost estimation models for engineer-to-order operations

This research addresses the problem of cost estimation for product development in engineer-to-order (ETO) operations. An ETO operation starts the product development process with a product specification and ends with delivery of a rather complicated, highly customized product. ETO operations are practiced in various industries such as engineering tooling, factory plants, industrial boilers, pressure vessels, shipbuilding, bridges and buildings. ETO views each product as a delivery item in an industrial project and needs to make an accurate estimation of its development cost at the bidding and/or planning stage before any design or manufacturing activity starts. ^ Many ETO practitioners rely on an ad hoc approach to cost estimation, with use of past projects as reference, adapting them to the new requirements. This process is often carried out on a case-by-case basis and in a non-procedural fashion, thus limiting its applicability to other industry domains and transferability to other estimators. In addition to being time consuming, this approach usually does not lead to an accurate cost estimate, which varies from 30% to 50%. ^ This research proposes a generic cost modeling methodology for application in ETO operations across various industry domains. Using the proposed methodology, a cost estimator will be able to develop a cost estimation model for use in a chosen ETO industry in a more expeditious, systematic and accurate manner. ^ The development of the proposed methodology was carried out by following the meta-methodology as outlined by Thomann. Deploying the methodology, cost estimation models were created in two industry domains (building construction and the steel milling equipment manufacturing). The models are then applied to real cases; the cost estimates are significantly more accurate than the actual estimates, with mean absolute error rate of 17.3%. ^ This research fills an important need of quick and accurate cost estimation across various ETO industries. It differs from existing approaches to the problem in that a methodology is developed for use to quickly customize a cost estimation model for a chosen application domain. In addition to more accurate estimation, the major contributions are in its transferability to other users and applicability to different ETO operations. ^

Proton nuclear magnetic resonance investigation of the native and modified active site structure of heme proteins

Hemoproteins are a very important class of enzymes in nature sharing the essentially same prosthetic group, heme, and are good models for exploring the relationship between protein structure and function. Three important hemoproteins, chloroperoxidase (CPO), horseradish peroxidase (HRP), and cytochrome P450cam (P450cam), have been extensively studied as archetypes for the relationship between structure and function. In this study, a series of 1D and 2D NMR experiments were successfully conducted to contribute to the structural studies of these hemoproteins. ^ During the epoxidation of allylbenzene, CPO is converted to an inactive green species with the prosthetic heme modified by addition of the alkene plus an oxygen atom forming a five-membered chelate ring. Complete assignment of the NMR resonances of the modified porphyrin extracted and demetallated from green CPO unambiguously established the structure of this porphyrin as an NIII-alkylated product. A novel substrate binding motif of CPO was proposed from this concluded regiospecific N-alkylation structure. ^ Soybean peroxidase (SBP) is considered as a more stable, more abundant and less expensive substitute of HRP for industrial applications. A NMR study of SBP using 1D and 2D NOE methods successfully established the active site structure of SBP and consequently fills in the blank of the SBP NMR study. All of the hyperfine shifts of the SBP-CN- complex are unambiguously assigned together with most of the prosthetic heme and all proximal His170 resonances identified. The active site structure of SBP revealed by this NMR study is in complete agreement with the recombinant SBP crystal structure and is highly similar to that of the HRP with minor differences. ^ The NMR study of paramagnetic P450cam had been greatly restricted for a long time. A combination of 2D NMR methods was used in this study for P450cam-CN - complexes with and without camphor bound. The results lead to the first unequivocal assignments of all heme hyperfine-shifted signals, together with certain correlated diamagnetic resonances. The observed alternation of the assigned novel proximal cysteine β-CH2 resonances induced by camphor binding indicated a conformational change near the proximal side.^

Parental and cultural influences on Hispanic college women's verbal intimate partner violence victimization: An examination of within group differences

Prior research has shown that college women in the United States are experiencing significantly high rates of verbal intimate partner violence (IPV); estimates indicate that approximately 20-30% of college women experience verbal IPV victimization (e.g., Hines, 2007; Muñoz-Rivas, Graña, O'Leary, & González, 2009). Verbal IPV is associated with physical consequences, such as chronic pain and migraine headaches, and psychological implications, including anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and substance use (Coker et al., 2002). However, few studies have examined verbal IPV in college populations, and none have focused on Hispanic college women who are members of the largest minority population on college campuses today (Pew Research Center, 2013), and experience higher rates of IPV victimization (Ingram, 2007). The current dissertation sought to address these gaps by examining the influence of familial conflict strategies on Hispanic college women's verbal IPV victimization. Further, within group differences were explored, with specific attention paid to the role of acculturation and gender role beliefs. A total of 906 from two Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSI) in the southeastern (N=502) and southwestern (N=404) United States participated in the three part study. Study one examined the influence of parental conflict strategies on Hispanic women's verbal IPV victimization in current romantic relationships. Consistent with previous research, results indicated that parental use of verbal violence influenced verbal IPV victimization in the current romantic relationship. A unidirectional effect of paternal use of verbal aggression towards the participant on maternal verbal aggression towards the participant was also found. Study two examined the influence of parental conflict strategies, acculturation, and gender role beliefs on victimization. Acculturation and gender role beliefs were found to not have an influence on participants' verbal IPV victimization. Study three examined within-group differences using Study two's model. Differences were found between the southeastern and southwestern participants; gender role beliefs increased rates of verbal IPV victimization in the southeastern population. The current dissertation fills a gap in the literature on IPV experiences in Hispanic college populations, the importance of examining verbal IPV trends, and highlights importance differing cultural influences within populations traditionally viewed as homogenous. The implications for future research are discussed.^

As inter-ações entre espaço do corpo e o movimento dançado

This dissertation seeks to reflect about the relations between danced movement and body space (Kinesphere), and their contributions to the expansion of the expressive possibilities of the subject on dancing. According to Rudolf Laban there is no space that is empty, because it is always being modified and signified at every moment by the movement. Space exists because we interact with it, at the same time movement occours configuring a signifcant space that is incessantly transformed. In this sense, space, body and movement appear in this research as interconnected and interdependent. For this discussion we have as main interlocutor the studies of Rudolf Laban. The nature of this research is qualitative and descriptive. This is a context that embraces the phenomenon of dance and as such it is based on a dimension that doesn't deal with mensurability, but with the art scene, fruitful in its infinite openness to the creation of multiple significances for what has been lived. We also propose to present a report about the practical study developed in the discipline Coreologia in the licentiate course of Dance in UFRN, as well as the analysis of the interviews applied to students of this curricular component. The questions were developed in a way that lead to a reflection about the experience of those interviewed in this discipline, thus generating material for us to discuss how the students perceive dance based on the relational study between space and movement. We realize that this study may favor an understanding of the relations that the experienced movement in the act of the dance weaves along the spatiality that receives and fills our bodies, resignifying the vision of a space which is restrict to the mere place were the body moves and occupies. It also favors the reflections concerning the body that moves and creates spatiality when dancing, thereby bringing to the Performing Arts a chance to think and to experience on the expansion of the expressive gesture in dance and beyond it, led by the recognition of the principles that organize human movement pointed by Laban. It also contributes on the formation of the students in licentiate courses of Dance by questioning the ways to appropriate the contents worked in a graduation discipline as regards to the availability of the body for dance. This dissertation is divided in three parts, called Impulsos. In the First Impulso: “Primeiros Gestos Textuais”, we find an introduction to concepts and ideas of body, movement and space that permeates all the work. In the Second Impulso: "Nós", the triad body-space-motion is discussed using the metaphorical image of a knot that binds these three concepts. The third and final Impulso: "Enlaces" deal with impressions and discoveries lived during the experimentation of the principles of inter-actions studied here, in the lessons of the already mentioned discipline