Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Are you a mindful driver? A review of the potential explanatory value of mindfulness in predicting speeding behaviour

Mindfulness is a concept which has been widely used in studies on consciousness, but has recently been applied to the understanding of behaviours in other areas, including clinical psychology, meditation, physical activity, education and business. It has been suggested that mindfulness can also be applied to road safety, though this has not yet been researched. A standard definition of mindfulness is “paying attention in a particular way, on purpose in the present moment and non-judgemental to the unfolding of experience moment by moment” [1]. Scales have been developed to measure mindfulness; however, there are different views in the literature on the nature of the mindfulness construct. This paper reviews the issues raised in the literature and arrives at an operational definition of mindfulness considered relevant to road safety. It is further proposed that mindfulness is best construed as operating together with other psychosocial factors to influence road safety behaviours. The specific case of speeding behaviour is outlined, where the psychosocial variables in the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) have been demonstrated to predict both intention to speed and actual speeding behaviour. A role is proposed for mindfulness in enhancing the explanatory and predictive powers of the TPB concerning speeding. The implications of mindfulness for speeding countermeasures are discussed and a program of future research is outlined.

The role of personality in predicting hooning-related driving behaviour

‘Hooning’ constitutes a set of illegal and high-risk vehicle related activities typically performed by males aged 17-25, a group that is over-represented in road trauma statistics. This study used an online survey of 422 participants to test the efficacy of the Five Factor Model of Personality in predicting ‘loss of traction’ (LOT) hooning behaviour. Drivers who engaged in LOT behaviour scored significantly lower on the factor of Agreeableness than those who did not. Regression analyses indicated that the Five Factor Model of Personality was a significant predictor of LOT behaviour over and above sex and age, although Agreeableness was the only significant personality factor in the model. The findings may be used to better understand those drivers likely to engage in LOT behaviours. Road safety advertising and educational campaigns can target less socially agreeable drivers, and aim to encourage more agreeable attitudes to driving, particularly for younger male drivers.

Road safety messages tailored for young adults : Using the Internet and encouraging protective passenger behaviour

Young drivers are at higher risk of crashes than other drivers when carrying passengers. Graduated Driver Licensing has demonstrated effectiveness in reducing fatalities however there is considerable potential for additional strategies to complement the approach. A survey with 276 young adults (aged 17-25 years, 64% females) was conducted to examine the potential and importance of strategies that are delivered via the Internet and potential strategies for passengers. Strategies delivered via the Internet represent opportunity for widespread dissemination and greater reach to young people at times convenient to them. The current study found some significant differences between males and females with regard to ways the Internet is used to obtain road safety information and the components valued in trusted road safety sites. There were also significant differences between males and females on the kinds of strategies used as passengers to promote driver safety and the context in which it occurred, with females tending to take more proactive strategies than males. In sum, young people see value in Internet delivery for passenger safety information (80% agreed/ strongly agreed) and more than 90% thought it was important to intervene while a passenger of a risky driver. Thus tailoring Internet road safety strategies to young people may differ for males and females however there is considerable potential for a passenger focus in strategies aimed at reducing young driver crashes.

Conifer defence against insects: microarray gene expression profiling of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) induced by mechanical wounding or feeding by spruce budworms (Choristoneura occidentalis) or white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi) reveals large

Conifers are resistant to attack from a large number of potential herbivores or pathogens. Previous molecular and biochemical characterization of selected conifer defence systems support a model of multigenic, constitutive and induced defences that act on invading insects via physical, chemical, biochemical or ecological (multitrophic) mechanisms. However, the genomic foundation of the complex defence and resistance mechanisms of conifers is largely unknown. As part of a genomics strategy to characterize inducible defences and possible resistance mechanisms of conifers against insect herbivory, we developed a cDNA microarray building upon a new spruce (Picea spp.) expressed sequence tag resource. This first-generation spruce cDNA microarray contains 9720 cDNA elements representing c. 5500 unique genes. We used this array to monitor gene expression in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) bark in response to herbivory by white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi, Curculionidae) or wounding, and in young shoot tips in response to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis, Lepidopterae) feeding. Weevils are stem-boring insects that feed on phloem, while budworms are foliage feeding larvae that consume needles and young shoot tips. Both insect species and wounding treatment caused substantial changes of the host plant transcriptome detected in each case by differential gene expression of several thousand array elements at 1 or 2 d after the onset of treatment. Overall, there was considerable overlap among differentially expressed gene sets from these three stress treatments. Functional classification of the induced transcripts revealed genes with roles in general plant defence, octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, transport, secondary metabolism, and transcriptional regulation. Several genes involved in primary metabolic processes such as photosynthesis were down-regulated upon insect feeding or wounding, fitting with the concept of dynamic resource allocation in plant defence. Refined expression analysis using gene-specific primers and real-time PCR for selected transcripts was in agreement with microarray results for most genes tested. This study provides the first large-scale survey of insect-induced defence transcripts in a gymnosperm and provides a platform for functional investigation of plant-insect interactions in spruce. Induction of spruce genes of octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, terpenoid biosynthesis, and phenolic secondary metabolism are discussed in more detail.

Family-focused weight management program for five- to nine-year-olds incorporating parenting skills training with healthy lifestyle information to support behaviour modification

his case study aims to describe how general parenting principles can be used as part of parent-led, family-focused child weight management that is in line with current Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines. A parent-led, family-focused child weight management program was designed for use by dietitians with parents of young children (five- to nine-year-olds). The program utilises the cornerstones of overweight treatment: diet, activity, behaviour modification and family support delivered in an age-appropriate, family-focused manner. Parents participate in 16 sessions (4 parenting-focused, 8 lifestyle-focused and 4 individual telephone support calls) conducted weekly, fortnightly then monthly over six months. This case study illustrates how a family used the program, resulting in reduced degree of overweight and stabilised waist circumference in the child over 12 months. In conclusion, linking parenting skills to healthy family lifestyle education provides an innovative approach to family-focused child weight management. It addresses key Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines, works at the family level, and provides a means for dietitians to easily adopt age-appropriate behaviour modification as part of their practice.

Maternal feeding practices and feeding behaviors of Australian children aged 12 to 36 months

Objectives To explore parents' perceptions of the eating behaviors and related feeding practices of their young children. Methods Mothers (N=740) of children aged 12 to 36 months and born in South Australia were randomly selected by birth date in four 6-month age bands from a centralized statewide database and invited to complete a postal questionnaire. Results Valid completed questionnaires were returned for 374 children (51% response rate; 54% female). Although mothers generally reported being confident and happy in feeding their children, 23% often worried that they gave their child the right amount of food. Based on a checklist of 36 specified items, 15% of children consumed no vegetables in the previous 24 hours, 11% no fruit and for a further 8% juice was the only fruit. Of 12 specified high fat/sugar foods and drinks, 11% of children consumed none, 20% one, 26% two, and 43% three or more. Six of eight child-feeding practices that promote healthy eating behaviors were undertaken by 75% parents 'often' or 'all of the time'. However, 8 of 11 practices that do not promote healthy eating were undertaken by a third of mothers at least ‘sometimes’. Conclusions In this representative sample, dietary quality issues emerge early and inappropriate feeding practices are prevalent thus identifying the need for very early interventions that promote healthy food preferences and positive feeding practices. Such programs should focus not just on the 'what', but also the 'how' of early feeding, including the feeding relationship and processes appropriate to developmental stage. Key words: Maternal feeding practices, infants, obesity

Nonprofit organizational behaviour : sociological and psychological approaches

The study of organizations goes to the roots of social science. Abundant theory provides the basis for explanations of diverse aspects of organizational structure and process. As a subset of organizations, nonprofit organizations can be studied with many of the same theoretical approaches used for studying other organizations. Still, nonprofit organizations have some special characteristics, such as a multiplicity of stakeholders and the use of volunteers; some theories of organizations can therefore be expected to be especially useful for studying nonprofit organizations and some other theories not to be very useful. In general, our approach is to apply relevant organizational theory to nonprofit organizations. As such, this essay is not a typical review of literature about nonprofit organizations. Instead, the purpose is to equip the reader with conceptual and theoretical tools for understanding nonprofits as organizations.

Intelligent negotiation behaviour model for an open railway access market

In an open railway access market, the provisions of railway infrastructures and train services are separated and independent. Negotiations between the track owner and train service providers are thus required for the allocation of the track capacity and the formulation of the services timetables, in which each party, i.e. a stakeholder, exhibits intelligence from the previous negotiation experience to obtain the favourable terms and conditions for the track access. In order to analyse the realistic interacting behaviour among the stakeholders in the open railway access market schedule negotiations, intelligent learning capability should be included in the behaviour modelling. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach on modelling the intelligent negotiation behaviour. The effectiveness of incorporating learning capability in the stakeholder negotiation behaviour is then demonstrated through simulation.

Compressive behaviour of nanocrystallilne Mg-5%Al alloys

Magnesium alloys are attracting increasing research interests due to their low density, high specific strength and good mechineability and availability as compared to other structural materials. However, the deformation and failure mechanisms of nanocrystalline Mg alloys have not been well understood. In this work, the deformation behavior of nanocrystalline Mg-5% Al alloys was investigated using compression test, with a focus on the effects of grain size. The average grain size of the Mg-Al alloy was changed from 13 µm to 50 nm via mechanical milling. The results showed that grain size had a significant influence on the yield stress and ductility of the Mg alloys, and the materials exhibited increased strain rate sensitivity with decrease of grain size. The deformation mechanisms were also strongly dependent with the grain sizes.