993 resultados para Failure Probability


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In this chapter, we look at the step beyond reporting, to the external audit or assurance function. The role of any audit engagement is to provide a professional opinion on a set of financial or non-financial assertions reported by an organization's management, based on an agreed evaluative framework. Any such opinion is not a guarantee that the underlying report is free from fraud or misstatement. Where an audit opinion on financial statements is incorrect, this is referred to as an audit failure. Specifically, the textbook definition of audit failure has two components: that the financial statements contain a serious error and that the auditor has failed to detect the error due to the auditor's failure during the audit process.

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This paper describes adoption rates of environmental assurance within meat and wool supply chains, and discusses this in terms of market interest and demand for certified 'environmentally friendly' products, based on phone surveys and personal interviews with pastoral producers, meat and wool processors, wholesalers and retailers, and domestic consumers. Members of meat and wool supply chains, particularly pastoral producers, are both aware of and interested in implementing various forms of environmental assurance, but significant costs combined with few private benefits have resulted in low adoption rates. The main reason for the lack of benefits is that the end user (the consumer) does not value environmental assurance and is not willing to pay for it. For this reason, global food and fibre supply chains, which compete to supply consumers with safe and quality food at the lowest price, resist public pressure to implement environmental assurance. This market failure is further exacerbated by highly variable environmental and social production standards required of primary producers in different countries, and the disparate levels of government support provided to them. Given that it is the Australian general public and not markets that demand environmental benefits from agriculture, the Australian government has a mandate to use public funds to counter this market failure. A national farm environmental policy should utilise a range of financial incentives to reward farmers for delivering general public good environmental outcomes, with these specified and verified through a national environmental assurance scheme.

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This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

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The social-emotional issues some students experience can place them at risk of school failure. Traditional methods of support can be ineffective or not sustainable and new alternative approaches need to be attempted to support social-emotional competency, school engagement and success for students at risk. This paper discusses preliminary outcomes of an equine facilitated learning (EFL) programme specifically designed to focus on using horses to improve the resilience and social-emotional competency in students perceived as ‘at risk’ of school failure. This qualitative exploratory study used interviews and observations over a six month period to listen to the voices of the students themselves about their experiences of EFL. Initial findings from the pilot study suggest that EFL programmes can be a novel and motivating way to promote resilience training and social-emotional development of students at risk of failure and, in turn, improve their level of engagement and connection with school environments.

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Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard nongrowing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

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We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t ), which is motivated by various applications in developmental biology. Individuals in the diffusing population, which could represent molecules or cells in a developmental scenario, undergo two different kinds of motion: (i) undirected movement, characterized by a diffusion coefficient, D, and (ii) directed movement, associated with the underlying domain growth. For a general class of problems with a reflecting boundary at x = 0, and an absorbing boundary at x = L(t ), we provide an exact solution to the partial differential equation describing the evolution of the population density function, C(x,t ). Using this solution, we derive an exact expression for the survival probability, S(t ), and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S = limt→∞ S(t ). Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡ 0, we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ). Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.

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Background/Aim There is a 70% higher age-adjusted incidence of heart failure (HF) amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, three times more hospitalisations and twice as many deaths than non-Aboriginal people. There is a need to develop holistic yet individualised approaches in accord with the values of Aboriginal community healthcare to support patient education and self-care. The aim of this study was to re-design an existing HF educational resource (Fluid Watchers-Pacific Rim©) to be culturally safe for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, working in collaboration with the local community, and to conduct feasibility testing. Methods This study was conducted in two phases and utilised a mixed methods approach (qualitative and quantitative). Phase 1 of this study used action research methods to develop a culturally safe electronic resource to be provided to Aboriginal HF patients via a tablet computer. A HF expert panel adapted the existing resource to ensure it was evidence-based and contained appropriate language and images that reflects Aboriginal culture. A stakeholder group (which included Aboriginal workers and HF patients, as well as researchers and clinicians) then reviewed the resources and changes were made accordingly. In Phase 2, the new resource was tested on a sample of Aboriginal HF patients to assess feasibility and acceptability. Patient knowledge, satisfaction and self-care behaviours were measured using a before and after design with validated questionnaires. As this was a pilot test to determine feasibility, no statistical comparisons were made. Results - Phase 1: Throughout the process of resource development, two main themes emerged from the stakeholder consultation. These were the importance of identity, meaning that it was important to ensure that the resource accurately reflected the local community, with the appropriate clothing, skin tone and voice. The resource was adapted to reflect this and of the local community voiced the recordings for the resource. The other theme was comprehension; images were important and all text was converted to the first person and used plain language. - Phase 2: Five Aboriginal participants, mean age 61.6 ± 10.0 years, with NYHA Class III and IV heart failure were enrolled. Participants reported a high level of satisfaction with the resource (83.0%). HF knowledge (percentage of correct responses) increased from 48.0 ± 6.7% to 58.0 ± 9.7%, a 20.8% increase and results of the self-care index indicated that the biggest change was in patient confidence for self-care with a 95% increase in confidence score (46.7 ± 16.0 to 91.1 ± 11.5). Changes in management and maintenance scores varied between9275 patients. Conclusion By working in collaboration with HF experts, Aboriginal researchers and patients, a culturally safe HF resource has been developed for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients. Engaging Aboriginal researchers, capacity-building, and being responsive to local systems and structures enabled this pilot study to be successfully completed with the Aboriginal community and positive participant feedback demonstrated that the methodology used in this study was appropriate and acceptable; participants were able to engage with willingness and confidence.

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Suun kautta annosteltava kalsiumherkistäjä parantaa sydämen vajaatoimintaan liittyvää pumppausvajetta kokeellisissa sydämen vajaatoimintamalleissa Huolimatta viime vuosikymmenien lääketieteellisestä kehityksestä krooninen sydämen vajaatoiminta on silti edelleen vakava, elämänlaatua voimakkaasti rajoittava sairaus. Kalsiumherkistäjät ovat uusi, sydämen pumppausvoimaa lisäävä lääkeryhmä. Levosimendaani, kotimaista alkuperää oleva kalsiumherkistäjä, on kliinisessä käytössä akuutin vajaatoiminnan hoitoon suonensisäisesti ja lyhytaikaisesti annosteltavana valmisteena. Levosimendaanilla on aktiivinen metaboliitti, OR-1896, jonka oletetaan olevan vuorokauden mittaisen levosimendaani-infuusion jälkeen havaittujen useita päiviä kestävien hyödyllisisten vaikutuksisten takana. Levosimendaanin kroonisen, suun kautta tapahtuvan annostelun vaikutuksista tieto on vähäisempää, mutta sillä näyttää olevan positiivisia vaikutuksia potilaiden raportoimana. FM Marjut Louhelainen on selvittänyt väitöskirjassaan suun kautta annosteltavan levosimendaanin ja sen pitkäkestoisen aktiivisen metaboliitin vaikutuksia kroonisen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa käyttämällä sekä hypertensiivisen sydäntaudin että 2 tyypin diabeteksen komplisoimaan sydäninfarktin kokeellisia malleja. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin lisäksi vajaatoimintaan johtavia molekyylitason tapahtumia sydänlihaksessa. Tutkimuksessa osoitettiin, että krooninen suun kautta annosteltu hoito sekä kalsiumherkistäjä levosimendaanilla että sen aktiivisella metaboliitilla estää hypertensiiviseen sydämen vajaatoiminnan aikaasaamaa sydämen uudelleenmuovaantumista ja siihen liittyvää kuolleisuutta. Nämä vaikutukset välittyivät vähentyneen sydänlihassoluhypertrofian, solukuolleisuuden ja neurohumaraalisen aktivaation kautta. Levosimendaanin ja OR-1896:n osoitettiin myös parantavan sydämen pumppausfunktiota tyyppi 2 diabeteksen komplisoimassa sydäninfarktissa. Ei-diabeettiseen tilanteeseen verrattuna diabetekseen liittyvä infarktin jälkeinen vajaatoiminnan kehitys oli yhteydessä lisääntyneeseen tulehdukseen, fibroosiin, solukuolemaan, neurohumoraaliseen aktivaatioon ja ennenaikaiseen kudoksen vanhenemiseen. Sekä levosimendaani, että OR-1869 vähensivät tulehduksen, fibroosin ja solukuoleman merkkejä ja vaimensi neurohumoraalista aktivaatiota. OR-1896 myös vähensi solujen vanhenemiseen liittyvien merkkiaineiden ilmentymistä. Väitöskirjassa todettiin, että suun kautta annosteltuna sekä levosimendaani, että sen aktiivinen metaboliitti OR-1896, omaavat terapeuttista potentiaalia sekä hypertensiivisen sydäntaudin hoitoon että sydäninfarktin jälkeisen vajaatoiminnan estoon. FM Marjut Louhelaisen farmakologian alaan kuuluva väitöskirja Effects of oral calcium sensitizers on experimental heart failure tarkastetaan Helsingin yliopiston Lääketieteellisessä tiedekunnassa perjantaina 29.01.2010 klo 12 (Biomedicum Helsinki, luentosali 2, Haartmaninkatu 8, Helsinki). Vastaväittäjänä toimii professori Raimo Tuominen, Helsingin yliopiston Farmasian tiedekunnasta ja kustoksena professori Eero Mervaala Helsingin yliopiston Lääketieteellisestä tiedekunnasta.

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A quantitative expression has been obtained for the equivalent resistance of an internal short in rechargeable cells under constant voltage charging.

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The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.

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Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

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The stress corrosion cracking (SCC) characteristics of agr-titanium sheets in a bromine-methanol solution have been studied in the annealed and cold-rolled conditions using longitudinal and transverse specimens. The times to failure for annealed longitudinal specimens were longer than those for similarly tested transverse specimens. The cold-rolled specimens developed resistance to SCC, but failed by cleavage when notched, unlike the intergranular separation in annealed titanium. The apparent activation energy was found to be texture dependent and was in the range 30 to 51 kJ mol–1 for annealed titanium, and 15kJ mol–1 for cold-rolled titanium. The dependence of SCC behaviour on the texture is related to the changes in the crack initiation times. These are caused by changes in the passivation and repassivation characteristics of the particular thickness plane. The thickness planes are identified with the help of X-ray pole figures obtained on annealed and cold-rolled material. On the basis of the activation energy and the electrochemical measurements, the mechanism of SCC in annealed titanium is identified to be the one involving stress-aided anodic dissolution. On the other hand, the results on the cold-rolled titanium are in support of the hydrogen embrittlement mechanism consisting of hydride precipitation. The cleavage planes identified from the texture data match with the reported habit planes for hydride formation.

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Out-of-plane behaviour of mortared and mortarless masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement, including unreinforced masonry as a base case is examined using a layered shell element based explicit finite element modelling method. Wall systems containing internal reinforcement, external surface reinforcement and intermittently laced reinforced concrete members and unreinforced masonry panels are considered. Masonry is modelled as a layer with macroscopic orthotropic properties; external reinforcing render, grout and reinforcing bars are modelled as distinct layers of the shell element. Predictions from the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. The model is used to examine the effectiveness of two retrofitting schemes for an unreinforced masonry wall.

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Accurate determination of same-sex twin zygosity is important for medical, scientific and personal reasons. Determination may be based upon questionnaire data, blood group, enzyme isoforms and fetal membrane examination, but assignment of zygosity must ultimately be confirmed by genotypic data. Here methods are reviewed for calculating average probabilities of correctly concluding a twin pair is monozygotic, given they share the same genotypes across all loci for commonly utilized multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) kits.