Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Genetic evaluation of a proposed introduction: the case of the greater prairie chicken and the extinct heath hen.

Population introduction is an important tool for ecosystem restoration. However, before introductions should be conducted, it is important to evaluate the genetic, phenotypic and ecological suitability of possible replacement populations. Careful genetic analysis is particularly important if it is suspected that the extirpated population was unique or genetically divergent. On the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, the introduction of greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) to replace the extinct heath hen (T. cupido cupido) is being considered as part of an ecosystem restoration project. Martha's Vineyard was home to the last remaining heath hen population until its extinction in 1932. We conducted this study to aid in determining the suitability of greater prairie chickens as a possible replacement for the heath hen. We examined mitochondrial control region sequences from extant populations of all prairie grouse species (Tympanuchus) and from museum skin heath hen specimens. Our data suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen population represents a divergent mitochondrial lineage. This result is attributable either to a long period of geographical isolation from other prairie grouse populations or to a population bottleneck resulting from human disturbance. The mtDNA diagnosability of the heath hen contrasts with the network of mtDNA haplotypes of other prairie grouse (T. cupido attwateri, T. pallidicinctus and T. phasianellus), which do not form distinguishable mtDNA groupings. Our findings suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen was more genetically isolated than are current populations of prairie grouse and place the emphasis for future research on examining prairie grouse adaptations to different habitat types to assess ecological exchangeability between heath hens and greater prairie chickens.

Numerical solutions of certain nonlinear models in European options on a distributed computing environment

Financial modelling in the area of option pricing involves the understanding of the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk in investment. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. In turn, analysis tools rely on fast numerical algorithms for the solution of financial mathematical models. There are many different financial activities apart from shares buy/sell activities. The main aim of this chapter is to discuss a distributed algorithm for the numerical solution of a European option. Both linear and non-linear cases are considered. The algorithm is based on the concept of the Laplace transform and its numerical inverse. The scalability of the algorithm is examined. Numerical tests are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm for financial analysis. Time dependent functions for volatility and interest rates are also discussed. Applications of the algorithm to non-linear Black-Scholes equation where the volatility and the interest rate are functions of the option value are included. Some qualitative results of the convergence behaviour of the algorithm is examined. This chapter also examines the various computational issues of the Laplace transformation method in terms of distributed computing. The idea of using a two-level temporal mesh in order to achieve distributed computation along the temporal axis is introduced. Finally, the chapter ends with some conclusions.

Formalised peer mentoring pilot evaluation

Over the past ten years, mentoring of children and young people has become an increasingly important feature of social policy in the UK. This has been mirrored in the rapid growth in the number of mentoring schemes operating. However, it is widely acknowledged that no one single definition or model of mentoring exists; rather there are a number of different models providing support to young people in a range of settings. This research was undertaken during the autumn term of 2006 and the summer term of 2007. The methodology comprised an analysis of mentoring models in the 180 participating schools; questionnaires sent to all co-ordinators and to mentors/proteges in 40 schools; interviews with co-ordinators, pupils and support agents in 8 case study schools. Includes: •Introduction •Evaluation methodology •Analysis of school pilot application forms •Evaluation results •Conclusions •Recommendations •Bibliography •Appendices

A critical evaluation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software sourcing and provision using theoretical constructs

Deliberating on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software sourcing and provision, this paper contrasts the corporate environment with the small business environment. The paper is about Enterprise Resource Planning client (ERPc) expectations and Enterprise Resource Planning vendor (ERPv) value propositions as a mutually compatible process for achieving acceptable standards of ERP software performance. It is suggested that a less-than-equitable vendor–client relationship would not contribute to the implementation of the optimum solution. Adapting selected theoretical concepts and models, the researchers analyse ERPv to ERPc relationship. This analysis is designed to discover if the provision of the very large ERP vendors who market systems such as SAP, and the provision of the smaller ERP vendors (in this instance Eshbel Technologies Ltd who market an ERP software solution called Priority) when framed as a value proposition (Walters, D. (2002) Operations Strategy. Hampshire, UK: Palgrave), is at all comparable or distinctive.

ReaderBench: Automated evaluation of collaboration based on cohesion and dialogism

Dascalu, M., Trausan-Matu, S., McNamara, D.S., & Dessus, P. (2015). ReaderBench – Automated Evaluation of Collaboration based on Cohesion and Dialogism. International Journal of Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning, 10(4), 395–423. doi: 10.1007/s11412-015-9226-y

Toward autonomous measurements of photosynthetic electron transport rates: An evaluation of active fluorescence-based measurements of photochemistry

This study presents a methods evaluation and intercalibration of active fluorescence-based measurements of the quantum yield ( inline image) and absorption coefficient ( inline image) of photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry. Measurements of inline image, inline image, and irradiance (E) can be scaled to derive photosynthetic electron transport rates ( inline image), the process that fuels phytoplankton carbon fixation and growth. Bio-optical estimates of inline image and inline image were evaluated using 10 phytoplankton cultures across different pigment groups with varying bio-optical absorption characteristics on six different fast-repetition rate fluorometers that span two different manufacturers and four different models. Culture measurements of inline image and the effective absorption cross section of PSII photochemistry ( inline image, a constituent of inline image) showed a high degree of correspondence across instruments, although some instrument-specific biases are identified. A range of approaches have been used in the literature to estimate inline image and are evaluated here. With the exception of ex situ inline image estimates from paired inline image and PSII reaction center concentration ( inline image) measurements, the accuracy and precision of in situ inline image methodologies are largely determined by the variance of method-specific coefficients. The accuracy and precision of these coefficients are evaluated, compared to literature data, and discussed within a framework of autonomous inline image measurements. This study supports the application of an instrument-specific calibration coefficient ( inline image) that scales minimum fluorescence in the dark ( inline image) to inline image as both the most accurate in situ measurement of inline image, and the methodology best suited for highly resolved autonomous inline image measurements.

An Evaluation of the Impact of the Prospective Payment System on Antidepressant Use in Nursing Home Residents

Objectives: To determine the impact of the prospective payment system (PPS) for skilled nursing facilities on the pharmacologic treatment of depression.

Methods: We used a quasi-experimental study comparing the pharmacological treatment rates for depression in the pre-PPS period (1997) to the post-PPS period (2000) in 8149 residents with documented depression living in over 500 nursing facilities in Ohio. Logistic regression models adjusting for clustering effects of residents residing in homes using generalized estimating equations provided estimates of the PPS effect on use of any antidepressant and the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). We evaluated the extent to which the PPS effect was modified by organizational characteristics, including structural characteristics, resource characteristics, and staff resources available in the homes.

Results: Overall, there was no difference in the likelihood of any antidepressant [odds ratio (OR), 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.93 to 1.18, resident-adjusted model] or an SSRI being used (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.12, resident-adjusted model) after the introduction of PPS compared with 1997 when this reimbursement system was not in place (referent group). These trends did not appear to be modified substantially by organizational characteristics.

Conclusion: Although PPS did not appear to have influenced the treatment of depression in nursing homes, systems that provide checks and balances in relation to PPS are warranted.

Evaluation of predicted network modules in yeast metabolism using NMR-based metabolite profiling

Genome-scale metabolic models promise important insights into cell function. However, the definition of pathways and functional network modules within these models, and in the biochemical literature in general, is often based on intuitive reasoning. Although mathematical methods have been proposed to identify modules, which are defined as groups of reactions with correlated fluxes, there is a need for experimental verification. We show here that multivariate statistical analysis of the NMR-derived intra- and extracellular metabolite profiles of single-gene deletion mutants in specific metabolic pathways in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae identified outliers whose profiles were markedly different from those of the other mutants in their respective pathways. Application of flux coupling analysis to a metabolic model of this yeast showed that the deleted gene in an outlying mutant encoded an enzyme that was not part of the same functional network module as the other enzymes in the pathway. We suggest that metabolomic methods such as this, which do not require any knowledge of how a gene deletion might perturb the metabolic network, provide an empirical method for validating and ultimately refining the predicted network structure.

Widening our knowledge concerning young looked after children: the case for research using sociological models of childhood

The Assessment and Action framework for looked after children, designed to improve outcomes for all children in public care and those at home on care orders, is now well established in the UK. This paper offers a critical evaluation of the framework by examining the model of childhood upon which it is premised and by exploring its relationship to children's rights as conceptualized in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989). It will be argued that the particular child development model which underpins the framework addresses the rights of looked after children to protection and provision but does not allow for their participation rights to be sufficiently addressed. A critical review of the research concerning the education and health of looked after children is used to illustrate these points. It will be argued that what are missing are the detailed accounts of looked after children themselves. It is concluded that there is a need for the development of additional research approaches premised upon sociological models of childhood. These would allow for a greater engagement with the participation rights of this group of children and complement the pre-existing research agenda

Evaluation of glycated insulin in diabetic animals using immunocytochemistry and radioimmunoassay

Glycated insulin was evaluated in plasma and biological tissues of diabetic animal models by immuno. cytochemistry (ICC) and a novel radioimmunoassay. Glycated insulin circulated at 0.10 +/-0.04 ng/ml and 2.20 +/-0.14 ng/ml in lean and diabetic obese (ob/ob) mice, corresponding to 12.5 and 9.8% total plasma insulin, respectively. The concentration of glycated insulin was elevated 22-fold in obese mice compared to controls (P10 and 83 +/-4 ng/g wt (P0.17 mug/g wt). ICC revealed fluorescent positively stained cells in pancreatic islets from hydrocortisone (HC)treated diabetic rats. Fasting of HC-treated rats, resulted in 3-fold and 15-fold reductions in plasma glycated insulin (P

Thermogravimetric evaluation of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) for the prediction of in vitro dry matter digestibility

Thermogravimetry (TG) can be used for assessing the compositional differences in grasses that relate to dry matter digestibility (DMD) determined by pepsin-cellulase assay. This investigation developed regression models for predicting DMD of herbage grass during one growing season using TG results. The calibration samples were obtained from a field trial of eight cultivars and two breeding lines. The harvested materials from five cuts were analysed by TG to identify differences in the combustion patterns within the range of 30-600 degrees C. The discrete results including weight loss, peak height, area, temperature, widths and residue of three decomposition peaks were regressed against the measured DMD values of the calibration samples. Similarly, continuous weight loss results of the same samples were also utilised to generate DMD models. The r(2) for validation of the discrete and the best continuous models were 0.90 and 0.95, respectively, and the two calibrations were validated using independent samples from 24 plots from a trial carried out in 2004. The standard error for prediction of the 24 samples by the discrete model (4.14%) was higher than that by the continuous model (2.98%). This study has shown that DMD of grass could be predicted from the TG results. The benefit of thermal analysis is the ability to detect and show changes in composition of cell wall fractions of grasses during different cuts in a year.

Evaluation of Gas Solubility Prediction in Ionic Liquids using COSMOthermX

As the range of available ionic liquids increases, methods by which important engineering parameters such as gas solubilities can be estimated from simple structural information become ever more desirable. COSMO-based thermodynamic models, such as that used by COSMOthermX, allow the determination of such data for pure and mixed component systems. Herein, we evaluate the predictive capability of COSMOthermX through a comparison with literature data obtained from the IUPAC database which contains data for 15 gases in 27 ionic liquids, To determine any effect inherent to ionic liquids, gas solubility predictions were first performed for selected molecular solvents at constant temperature and pressure. Further estimations of gas solubility at temperatures ranging from (278 to 368) K at 0.1 MPa in water were performed for 14 gases. The Study has demonstrated that COSMOthermX is capable of predicting, qualitatively, gas solubilities in ionic liquids and, hence, reducing the amount of unnecessary experimental measurements prior to specific applications using ionic liquids.

Assessment framework for construction supply chain relationships: Development and evaluation

The change of supply chain relationships from the traditional adversarial to the collaborative has been increasing in the UK construction industry. To reflect this change, some attempts have been made to establish models for measuring and improving supply chain relationships in construction. However, there are obvious deficiencies in these existing models. This highlights the need for a systematic model for the assessment of construction supply chain relationships. Based on a review of the literature and an expert group discussion, an assessment framework is developed in this paper, which consists of assessment criteria, relationship levels, detailed descriptions, assessment classes and assessment procedures. The proposed framework is evaluated through expert interviews and case studies. This framework provides a roadmap for the improvement of supply chain relationships. It can help construction organisations to position their current relationship and identify key areas for relationship improvement in the future.

Evaluation of effective groundwater recharge of freshwater lens in small islands by the combined modeling of geoelectrical data and water heads

In small islands, a freshwater lens can develop due to the recharge induced by rain. Magnitude and spatial distribution of this recharge control the elevation of freshwater and the depth of its interface with salt water. Therefore, the study of lens morphology gives useful information on both the recharge and water uptake due to evapotranspiration by vegetation. Electrical resistivity tomography was applied on a small coral reef island, giving relevant information on the lens structure. Variable density groundwater flow models were then applied to simulate freshwater behavior. Cross validation of the geoelectrical model and the groundwater model showed that recharge exceeds water uptake in dunes with little vegetation, allowing the lens to develop. Conversely, in the low-lying and densely vegetated sectors, where water uptake exceeds recharge, the lens cannot develop and seawater intrusion occurs. This combined modeling method constitutes an original approach to evaluate effective groundwater recharge in such environments.
[Comte, J.-C., O. Banton, J.-L. Join, and G. Cabioch (2010), Evaluation of effective groundwater recharge of freshwater lens in small islands by the combined modeling of geoelectrical data and water heads, Water Resour. Res., 46, W06601, doi:10.1029/2009WR008058.]