Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people and outcome of routine management in home, hospital and nursing home settings

Objective: Fecal loading, cognitive impairment, loose stools, functional disability, comorbidity and anorectal incontinence are recognized as factors contributing to loss of fecal continence in older adults. The objective of this project was to assess the relative distribution of these factors in a variety of settings along with the outcome of usual management. Methods: One hundred and twenty adults aged 65 years and over with fecal incontinence recruited by convenience sampling from four different settings were studied. They were either living at home or in a nursing home or receiving care on an acute or rehabilitation elderly care ward. A structured questionnaire was used to elicit which factors associated with fecal incontinence were present from subjects who had given written informed consent or for whom assent for inclusion in the study had been obtained. Results: Fecal loading (Homes 6 [20%]; Acute care wards 17 [57%]; Rehabilitation wards 19 [63%]; Nursing homes 21 [70%]) and functional disability (Homes 5 [17%]; Acute care wards 25 [83%]; Rehabilitation wards 25 [83%]; Nursing homes 20 [67%]) were significantly more prevalent in the hospital and nursing home settings than in those living at home (P < 0.01). Loose stools were more prevalent in the hospital setting than in the other settings (Homes 11 [37%]; Acute care wards 20 [67%]; Rehabilitation wards 17 [57%]; Nursing homes 6 [20%]) (P < 0.01). Cognitive impairment was significantly more common in the nursing home than in the other settings (Nursing homes 26 [87%], Homes 5 [17%], Acute care wards 13 [43%], Rehabilitation wards 14 [47%]) (P < 0.01). Loose stools were the most prevalent factor present at baseline in 13 of the 19 (68%) subjects whose fecal incontinence had resolved at 3 months. Conclusion: The distribution of the factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people living at home differs from those cared for in nursing home and hospital wards settings. These differences need to be borne in mind when assessing people in different settings. Management appears to result in a cure for those who are not significantly disabled with loose stools as a cause for their fecal incontinence, but this would need to be confirmed by further research.

Contrasting behaviour of cadmium and zinc in a soil–plant–arthropod system

This study investigates the transfer of Cd and Zn from a soil amended with sewage sludge at rates up to 100 t ha(-1) through a multi-trophic system consisting of barley, the aphid Sitobion avenae and the larvae of the lacewing Chrysoperla carnae. Results show marked differences in the transfer of the two metals. Cadmium was freely accumulated in barley roots, but accumulation in the shoot was restricted to a concentration of around 0.22 mg kg(-1) (dry weight). This limited the transfer of Cd to higher trophic levels and resulted in no significant accumulation of Cd in S. avenae or in C. carnae. Zinc transfer in the system was largely unrestricted, resulting in significant accumulation in roots and shoots, in S. avenae and in C. carnae. Cadmium biomagnification occurred in lacewing pupae, with concentrations up to 3.6 times greater than in aphids. S. avenae biomagnified Zn by a factor of ca. 2.5 at low sludge amendment rates, but biomagnification decreased to a factor of 1.4 at the highest amendment rate. Biomagnification of Zn did not occur in C. carnae, but concentrations were up to 3.5 time higher than in soil. Results are discussed in light of the mechanisms regulating transfer of the two metals in the system.

Evaluating and optimizing oral formulations of live bacterial vaccines using a gastro-small intestine model

Gastrointestinal (GI) models that mimic physiological conditions in vitro are important tools for developing and optimizing biopharmaceutical formulations. Oral administration of live attenuated bacterial vaccines (LBV) can safely and effectively promote mucosal immunity but new formulations are required that provide controlled release of optimal numbers of viable bacterial cells, which must survive gastrointestinal transit overcoming various antimicrobial barriers. Here, we use a gastro-small intestine gut model of human GI conditions to study the survival and release kinetics of two oral LBV formulations: the licensed typhoid fever vaccine Vivotif comprising enteric coated capsules; and an experimental formulation of the model vaccine Salmonella Typhimurium SL3261 dried directly onto cast enteric polymer films and laminated to form a polymer film laminate (PFL). Neither formulation released significant numbers of viable cells when tested in the complete gastro-small intestine model. The poor performance in delivering viable cells could be attributed to a combination of acid and bile toxicity plus incomplete release of cells for Vivotif capsules, and to bile toxicity alone for PFL. To achieve effective protection from intestinal bile in addition to effective acid resistance, bile adsorbent resins were incorporated into the PFL to produce a new formulation, termed BR-PFL. Efficient and complete release of 4.4x107 live cells per dose was achieved from BR-PFL at distal intestinal pH, with release kinetics controlled by the composition of the enteric polymer film, and no loss in viability observed in any stage of the GI model. Use of this in vitro GI model thereby allowed rational design of an oral LBV formulation to maximize viable cell release.

The effect of financial leverage on real and accrual-based earnings management

Past research has documented a substitution effect between real earnings management (RM) and accrual-based earnings management (AM), depending on relative costs. This study contributes to this research by examining whether levels of (and changes in) financial leverage have an impact on this empirically documented trade-off. We hypothesise that in the presence of high leverage, firms that engage in earnings manipulation tactics will exhibit a preference for RM due to a lower possibility—and subsequent costs—of getting caught. We show that leverage levels and increases positively and significantly affect upward RM, with no significant effect on income-increasing AM, while our findings point towards a complementarity effect between unexpected levels of RM and AM for firms with very high leverage levels and changes. This is interpreted as an indication that high leverage could attract heavy outsider scrutiny, making it necessary for firms to use both forms of earnings management in order to achieve earnings targets. Furthermore, we document that equity investors exhibit a significantly stronger penalising reaction to AM vs. RM, indicating that leverage-induced RM is not as easily detectable by market participants as debt-induced AM, despite the fact that the former could imply deviation from optimal business practices.

Geochemistry of iron and manganese in soils and sediments of a mangrove system, Island of Pai Matos (Cananeia - SP, Brazil)

Five zones along a transect of 180 m were selected for study on the Island of Pai Matos (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Four of the zones are colonised by vascular plants (Spartina SP, Laguncularia LG, Avicennia AV and Rhizophora RH) and were denominated soils, and the other zone, which lacks vegetation, was denominated sediment (SD). The geochemical conditions differed significantly in soils and sediment and also at different depths. The soils were oxic (Eh > 350 mV) or suboxic (Eh: 350-100 mV) at the surface and anoxic (Eh < 100 mV) at depth, whereas in the sediment anoxic conditions prevailed at all depths, but with a lower concentration of sulphides in the pore water and pyrite in the solid fraction. Under these geochemical conditions Fe is retained in the soils, while the Mn tends to be mobilized and lost. The most abundant form of iron oxyhydroxide was lepidocrocite (mean concentration for all sites and depths, 45 +/- 19 mu mol g(-1)), followed by goethite (30 19 mu mol g(-1))and ferrihydrite (19 +/- 11 mu mol g(-1)),with significant differences among the mean concentrations. There was a significant decrease with depth in all the types of Fe oxyhydroxides measured, particularly the poorly crystalline forms. The pyrite fraction was an important component of the free Fe pool (non-silicate Fe) in all soils as well as in the sediment, especially below 20 cm depth (mean concentration for all sites and depths, 60 +/- 54 mu mol CI). Furthermore, the mean concentration of Fe-pyrite for all sites and depths was higher than that obtained for any of the three Fe oxyhydroxides measured. The Fe-AVS was a minor fraction, indicating that the high concentrations of dissolved Fe in the soils in the upper area of the transect result from the oxidation of Fe sulphides during low tide. Mossbauer spectroscopy also revealed that most of the Fe (III) was associated with silicates, in this case nontronite. The presence of crystals of pyrite associated with phyllosilicates in samples from the upper layer of the soils may indicate that pyritization of this form of Fe(III) is more rapid than usually reported for ocean bed sediments. The sequential extraction of Mn did not reveal any clearly dominant fraction, with the Mn-carbonate fraction being the most prevalent, followed by exchangeable Mn and oxides of Mn, whereas pyrite-Mn and Mn associated with crystalline Fe-oxides were present at significantly lower concentrations. The high concentration of dissolved Mn found in the soils in the lower part of the transect is consistent with the fact that the solubility is determined by the carbonate fraction. Unlike for Fe, in the soils in the higher zone, which are subject to intense drainage during low tide, there was loss of Mn, as reflected by the concentration of total Mn. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preparation and characterization of new glassy system As2P2S8-Ga2S3

Glasses having the composition (100 - x)As2P2S8-xGa(2)S(3) with x ranging from 0 to 50% were investigated to determine the compositional effect on properties and local structure. The glass transition temperature (T-g) and the stability parameter against crystallization (T-x - T-g) increased with the addition of Ga2S3. The structure of these glasses was probed by Raman scattering, Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and P-31 nuclear magnetic resonance. On the basis of the observed vibrations and the strength of the P-31-P-31 homonuclear magnetic dipolar coupling, two scenarios can be proposed for the structural evolution induced by the addition of Ga2S3. For x <= 20% we may have the formation of GaS4E- groups (E = nonbonding electron), and for x >= 30% we have depolymerization of the As2P2S8 units and the formation of a network of GaPS4 units with each PS4/2 unit (Q(4)) species carrying a single positive formal charge.

A new tick Kunitz type inhibitor, Amblyomin-X, induces tumor cell death by modulating genes related to the cell cycle and targeting the ubiquitin-proteasome system

The aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-tumor activity of Amblyomin-X, a serine protease Kunitz-type inhibitor. Amblyomin-X induced tumor mass regression and decreased number of metastatic events in a B16F10 murine melanoma model. Alterations on expression of several genes related to cell cycle were observed when two tumor cell lines were treated with Amblyomin-X. PSMB2, which encodes a proteasome subunit, was differentially expressed, in agreement to inhibition of proteasomal activity in both cell lines. In conclusion, our results indicate that Amblyomin-X selectively acts on tumor cells by inducing apoptotic cell death, possibly by targeting the ubiquitin-proteasome system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation and role of device management Solutions to the end users

This research is based on consumer complaints with respect to recently purchased consumer electronics. This research document will investigate the instances of development and device management as a tool used to aid consumer and manage consumer’s mobile products in order to resolve issues in or before the consumers is aware one exists. The problem at the present time is that mobile devices are becoming very advanced pieces of technology, and not all manufacturers and network providers have kept up the support element of End users. As such, the subject of the research is to investigate how device management could possibly be used as a method to promote research and development of mobile devices, and provide a better experience for the consumer. The wireless world is becoming increasingly complex as revenue opportunities are driven by new and innovative data services. We can no longer expect the customer to have the knowledge or ability to configure their own device. Device Management platforms can address the challenges of device configuration and support through new enabling technologies. Leveraging these technologies will allow a network operator to reduce the cost of subscriber ownership, drive increased ARPU (Average Revenue per User) by removing barriers to adoption, reduce churn by improving the customer experience and increase customer loyalty. DM technologies provide a flexible and powerful management method but are managing the same device features that have historically been configured manually through call centers or by the end user making changes directly on the device. For this reason DM technologies must be treated as part of a wider support solution. The traditional requirement for discovery, fault finding, troubleshooting and diagnosis are still as relevant with DM as they are in the current human support environment yet the current generation of solutions do little to address this problem. In the deployment of an effective Device Management solution the network operator must consider the integration of the DM platform, interfacing with many areas of the business, supported by knowledge of the relationship between devices, applications, solutions and services maintained on an ongoing basis. Complementing the DM solution with published device information, setup guides, training material and web based tools will ensure the quality of the customer experience, ensuring that problems are completely resolved, driving data usage by focusing customer education on the use of the wireless service In this way device management becomes a tool used both internally within the network or device vendor and by the customer themselves, with each user empowered to effectively manage the device without any prior knowledge or experience, confident that changes they apply will be relevant, accurate, stable and compatible. The value offered by an effective DM solution with an expert knowledge service will become a significant differentiator for the network operator in an ever competitive wireless market. This research document is intended to highlight some of the issues the industry faces as device management technologies become more prevalent, and offers some potential solutions to simplify the increasingly complex task of managing devices on the network, where device management can be used as a tool to aid customer relations and manage customer’s mobile products in order to resolve issues before the user is aware one exists. The research is broken down into the following, Customer Relationship Management, Device management, the role of knowledge with the DM, Companies that have successfully implemented device management, and the future of device management and CRM. And it also consists of questionnaires aimed at technical support agents and mobile device users. Interview was carried out with CRM managers within support centre to further the evidence gathered. To conclude, the document is to consider the advantages and disadvantages of device management and attempt to determine the influence it will have over customer support centre, and what methods could be used to implement it.

Production and Delivery (Optimization of production system and reliability)

This thesis is done to solve two issues for Sayid Paper Mill Ltd Pakistan. Section one deals with a practical problem arise in SPM that is cutting a given set of raw paper rolls of known length and width, and a set of product paper rolls of known length (equal to the length of raw paper rolls) and width, practical cutting constraints on a single cutting machine, according to demand orders for all customers. To solve this problem requires to determine an optimal cutting schedule to maximize the overall cutting process profitability while satisfying all demands and cutting constraints. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a mathematical model which solves this problem.Second section deals with a problem of delivering final product from warehouse to different destinations by finding shortest paths. It is an operational routing problem to decide the daily routes for sending trucks to different destination to deliver their final product. This industrial problem is difficult and includes aspect such as delivery to a single destination and multiple destinations with limited resources. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a process which helps finding shortest path.